Patriots 5 1/2 Point Favorites at Denver

[supafly]

Generally had problems with? With different coach and players? Are you afraid that there is a mystical force at work?

I'm not sure about your mystical forces theory, but Brady's career record at Mile Hile is 1-6 overall.

There's also the fact that the team itself, is giving up 5-6 more pts a game on the road on average.

Then there's the thin air factor, which can be a pain to deal with, and certainly favors the team that plays there regularly.

And the playoff-like atmosphere of the crowd, being bogged down in Tebowmania.

Maybe you call it "mystical forces," but they are 4 things to worry about that normally don't come into consideration, although I think the playoff atmosphere will be great to deal with, as this team can learn from that moving forward.

Again, I will try and explain that I am in agreement with you that the team should win by double digits, maybe even 14+. That said, there are certainly factors involved besides whatever spin you want to keep putting on the poor performances of the defense in the past 2 games against low level competition with a combined winning percentage in the teens.

My point was that it would be hard to fault those who aren't in agreement with you, as there are plenty of reasons.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

This is a game that MUST be productive on offense early.

I think judging by Denver's last several games,you better jump out to a decent sized lead early.

The writing will be on the wall for the Pats by mid 3rd quarter...if they are trailing or leading by less than 10 points at that time,the outcome will fall right into Tebow's hands.

Denver is not good at stopping the run,BJGE will have to play well if the Pats are going to keep Denver guessing.

 

[supafly]

This is a game that MUST be productive on offense early.

I think judging by Denver's last several games,you better jump out to a decent sized lead early.

The writing will be on the wall for the Pats by mid 3rd quarter...if they are trailing or leading by less than 10 points at that time,the outcome will fall right into Tebow's hands.

Denver is not good at stopping the run,BJGE will have to play well if the Pats are going to keep Denver guessing.

And of course our run defense will have to play very well too, as DEN is the top ranked rushing unit in the NFL with 156 yds per game.

That, I believe, is the biggest factor.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

I'm not sure about your mystical forces theory, but Brady's career record at Mile Hile is 1-6 overall.

There's also the fact that the team itself, is giving up 5-6 more pts a game on the road on average.

Then there's the thin air factor, which can be a pain to deal with, and certainly favors the team that plays there regularly.

And the playoff-like atmosphere of the crowd, being bogged down in Tebowmania.

Maybe you call it "mystical forces," but they are 4 things to worry about that normally don't come into consideration, although I think the playoff atmosphere will be great to deal with, as this team can learn from that moving forward.

Again, I will try and explain that I am in agreement with you that the team should win by double digits, maybe even 14+. That said, there are certainly factors involved besides whatever spin you want to keep putting on the poor performances of the defense in the past 2 games against low level competition with a combined winning percentage in the teens.

My point was that it would be hard to fault those who aren't in agreement with you, as there are plenty of reasons.

Belichick has also struggled against the Broncos his whole HC career going back to his days in Cleveland with a total record of 3-10 against them.

It's a team that has befuddled both the top Coach/QB combo of the past decade.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

And of course our run defense will have to play very well too, as DEN is the top ranked rushing unit in the NFL with 156 yds per game.

That, I believe, is the biggest factor.

The defense allowed 170 yards to the near cellar dweller ranked Redskins rushing attack....I dread to think what it might allow against Denver.

If there is one hope we had in this defense prior to the past few weeks was it's ability to be decent against the run....now even that may become an issue.

If we can't stop the pass and struggle against the run we might have to see Brady put 70pts on the board against playoff offenses

 

[supafly]

Belichick has also struggled against the Broncos his whole HC career going back to his days in Cleveland with a total record of 3-10 against them.

It's a team that has befuddled both the top Coach/QB combo of the past decade.

Maybe Andy's "mystical forces" theory has some merit to it after all....

Those numbers are hard to explain:

Brady--1-6

Belichick--3-10

 

[supafly]

The defense allowed 170 yards to the near cellar dweller ranked Redskins rushing attack....I dread to think what it might allow against Denver.

If there is one hope we had in this defense prior to the past few weeks was it's ability to be decent against the run....now even that may become an issue.

If we can't stop the pass and struggle against the run we might have to see Brady put 70pts on the board against playoff offenses

Yes, the rush defense will have to step up and do their jobs to offset some of the problems on pass defense. This week will give us a good measure, one way or another.

It may not take 70 pts, but it will take Brady 35-40 pts if this defense doesn't buckle down.

Strangely enough, the pts by quarters are truly stellar...thru the first 3 quarters:

1st quarter (3.8 pts) ranks them 14th overall

2nd quarter (top 5 in the NFL with 5.1 pts) ranks them 5th overall

3rd quarter (top 10 in the NFL with 3.8 pts) ranks them 9th overall

4th quarter (almsot dead last with 8.3 pts) ranks them 30th overall

It's all about the 4th quarter, which we've seen many times.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Maybe Andy's "mystical forces" theory has some merit to it after all....

Those numbers are hard to explain:

Brady--1-6

Belichick--3-10

Not only that,but the fact that John Elway was not a QB of that team since Bill and Tom got together.

This team lost to QBs like Plummer,Orton and I believe Brian Griese

 

[LivinLovin&Breathin_Brady]

It could've had more to do with Shanahan being the coach than the team itself.

Without the fix: Patriots win 31-17(that's with Tebow getting all his points in the 4th, when the game is already over)

With the fix: The miraculous comeback Denver wins 14-17

 

[borg]

No doubt in my mind BB and Brady turbo charge the passing game from the get go. They have to get Denver to pass the ball early. Allowing Denver to run the ball, keep the clock moving and shorten the game is not in their best interests . Those 4th qtr meltdowns have to scare the crap out of BB.
This is a Denver playoff game....maybe bigger in their minds because a win represents validation....beating the mighty Patriots.
The Pats should be scared. Combine the Denver pass rush, a hurried Brady, a quality DB in Bailey....kind of reminds me of last years Jets D. BB has to spread it out....5 wide....to let Brady better understand where the pressure will come from. WR screens, quick slants...take the edge rushers out of the game.
Will BB go no huddle early, risking altitude affects on his offense. I say ....minimal.....due to the fact that his WRs/TEs rarely are substituted for. For those who haven't experienced a workout/sports in altitude....the heart rate jumps much quicker...and it takes longer to calm it down. BB may break form and run out Ocho/Underwood/rookie RBs more than usual.
Sagarin shows a 26.4-24.1 Pats Victory

 

[IcyPatriot]

Patriots win this game huge 37 - 6 ...

denver gets 2 FG's and Tebow gets T-boned in the end zone for a safety.

 

[Kulko]

Belichick has also struggled against the Broncos his whole HC career going back to his days in Cleveland with a total record of 3-10 against them.

It's a team that has befuddled both the top Coach/QB combo of the past decade.

The problem I have with this logic, is that its HCs and QBs which befuddle other teams, not the fact that the Jerseys are painful orange.

I am afraid of the thin air and the fact, that BB is not very efficient in first time matchups with new QBs, but the fact that he lost against Shananahan and Plummer, was more a problem last Week, then this one.

 

[Brettlax3434]

The problem I have with this logic, is that its HCs and QBs which befuddle other teams, not the fact that the Jerseys are painful orange.

I am afraid of the thin air and the fact, that BB is not very efficient in first time matchups with new QBs, but the fact that he lost against Shananahan and Plummer, was more a problem last Week, then this one.

We are also 0-1 vs. McDaniels and Orton.

 

[PatsFaninAZ]

I don't think there's mystique involved in the fact that year in and year out, Denver has an impressive home field advantage. The raw numbers are impressive, at something well into the 70th percentile. Their win advantage is a better measure, because it normalizes bad versus good years. 7 home wins is obviously a more telling indicator of HFA when you have only 10 wins than when you have 14. Traditionally, they win about 30 percent more at home than on the road -- right up there with the Chiefs and Packers. The numbers have dipped a bit lately, but it is a really hard place to win.

Patriots have had very little travel this year in terms of miles. They are defensively depleted and will have to play at altitude late in the season. This will be a tough game.

 

[supafly]

I don't think there's mystique involved in the fact that year in and year out, Denver has an impressive home field advantage. The raw numbers are impressive, at something well into the 70th percentile. Their win advantage is a better measure, because it normalizes bad versus good years. 7 home wins is obviously a more telling indicator of HFA when you have only 10 wins than when you have 14. Traditionally, they win about 30 percent more at home than on the road -- right up there with the Chiefs and Packers. The numbers have dipped a bit lately, but it is a really hard place to win.

Patriots have had very little travel this year in terms of miles. They are defensively depleted and will have to play at altitude late in the season. This will be a tough game.

The good news is that as of Dec.18th, New England will have a good possibility of being able to stay in Boston for almost FIVE straight weeks, and maybe longer with a home playoff win.