Re: OT: The Jets attempt for the ultimate back into the playoffs just got a lot easie
Very interesting posts, folks!
For what it is worth:
AFC Playoff Picture
Playoff Status (which has been pretty good over the last few years in my opinion) has the Jets at a 13% chance of making the playoffs. The only AFC team still alive for the wild card that is lower than that is Tennessee at 9%; the Raiders are at 19% and the Bengals are 59%.
There are five games that can and will affect the final AFC wild card spot:
Cincy-Baltimore, Oakland-SD, KC-Denver, Jets-Dolphins and Tennessee-Houston.
Five games, that is 32 possible outcomes.
Of those 32 possible combinations, there are only three in which the Jets make the playoffs:
- Jets, Ravens, Texans, Raiders, KC win
- Jets, Ravens, Texans, Chargers, Broncos win
- Jets, Ravens, Texans, Chargers, KC win
Here's an expansion of your excellent work:
- NYJ over MIA, BAL over CIN, HOU over TEN, OAK over SD, KC over DEN
- NYJ over MIA, BAL over CIN, HOU over TEN, SD over OAK, DEN over KC
- NYJ over MIA, BAL over CIN, HOU over TEN, SD over OAK, KC over DEN
Nice job on the analysis.
One can easily see that the common variables here are the results of the first 3 games, in the aspects of Jets, Ravens, and Texans wins.
It should be noted that the pointspread of ALL 3 of those games is less than 3 points.
That factor alone, (and maybe it means more to me from a wagering standpoint) should prove that the Jets chances are not as good as some would believe. When you consider that ALL 3 of those games need to go a certain direction, and they are ALL close matchups, that should make us who don't want the NYJ in the playoffs feel a bit better.
Then again, maybe it doesn't mean as much to the average fan.
Probably not. As for feeling better, well, I don't know the odds, but in my head, NYJ should beat MIA, BAL should beat CIN, HOU should beat TEN (if HOU doesn't lie down), and SD should beat OAK, and DEN and KC probably won't tie. Now, of course what 'should' happen doesn't ever always happen, and it has to happen five times in a row.
To piggy back off of that, out of the 128 possible playoff scenarios in the seven AFC playoff implication games, the Jets only make the playoffs 12 times. So the Jests are only included in the playoff scenario as the 6th seed for a whopping 9.375% of the time.
http://static.nfl.com/static/content/catch_all/nfl_image/AFC_playoff_seeding_2011.jpg
I don't know how playoffstatus.com does it stuff other than them saying "All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths". How does one compute "relative team strength"? I suppose that's the "special sauce" they are adding that raises the Jets odds up from the number just based on number of possible outcomes.
The big problem, though, is that one of those teams (Texans) is locked into the third seed; nothing that happens tomorrow can change that fact. So what's the point of going all out to win?
Agree, that's a critical point in a critical situation. HOU certainly has no reason to want to help or hurt NYJ as far as I can tell.
As for playoff incentives:
- NYJ needs a win to get in and help whereas MIA is out => NYJ has strong incentive
- BAL gets a first round bye with a win whereas CIN gets in with a win => both BAL and CIN have strong incentive, but CIN has more
- HOU is locked in whereas TEN needs to win and needs help to get in => TEN has strong incentive
- OAK needs a win and help to get in whereas SD is out => OAK has strong incentive
- DEN wins and they are in whereas KC is out => DEN has strong incentive
If you go by pure incentive, a lot of the teams that NYJ need to lose like CIN and TEN have strong incentives to win.
Which is exactly the % they have in the games that do matter to them (3 shots out of 32). Why that other site has them at 13% confuses me unless the other 3.625% is simply accounting for the huge horseshoe jammed up Rex's ass sideways.
I'm no expert on geometry, but is there any other way than sideways? Even if you start out trying to do it lengthwise, it ends up being sideways, unless Rexy has a titanium bunghole.
As an addndum. Let's root for Jason Taylor to go out big today. :rocker:
Do you have a spare horseshoe?