Official "Predict the Punishment" Contest Thread

[mgteich]

I think this is about right as specualtion, except that probation will likely be added (and should be).

2 week suspension for Coach Bill, loss of 2nd round and 5th round draft pick in the 2008 draft. EDIT: I forgot to include the fine, since the fine is the last thing on my mind... but I will throw in a $200,000 fine alongside the above.

Although, the fact that we have 2 1st rounders scares me... the temptation is certainly there for Goodell to snatch one of those.

 

[everlong]

How does a forfeit work with the sportsbooks? I bet is creates a sh*tstorm.

Boy that would be ugly.

 

[Grogan's neck roll]

Chris Mortensen on Cowherd's show:

"Substantial fine, at least one Day 1 draft pick and possibly another draft pick"

 

[PatsFanSince74]

tough to predict the punishment when we don't know the exact crime. But, assuming that the "crime" is breaking the NFL's "no taping" rule and assuming that the Patriots did not directly benefit from the tape because it was confiscated before it got into the lockerroom and assuming that the patriots had been warned before:

--Draft Pick: second round (one first day hit; the "crime" does not justify taking away 20+% of a team's draft picks and thus penalizing it for years to come, which would be the import of a more than one pick penalty)

--Fine: $500,000 (large enough that it will get Kraft's attention but small enough that it won't have to passed on to ticket holders)

--BB Suspension: none, because that would cut into TV revenues

--Probation: the franchise is on probation for rules violations for the rest of the season with more severe penalties. This is the most costly and unpredictable of all, because it will have the team on edge for the rest of the year, even if they weren't planning to do anything wrong.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

2 week suspension for Coach Bill, loss of 2nd round and 5th round draft pick in the 2008 draft. EDIT: I forgot to include the fine, since the fine is the last thing on my mind... but I will throw in a $200,000 fine alongside the above.

Although, the fact that we have 2 1st rounders scares me... the temptation is certainly there for Goodell to snatch one of those.

he'll be tempted to grab the first round pick, but it sets way, way too high a bar for future penalties to others

 

[QuiGon]

How does a forfeit work with the sportsbooks? I bet is creates a sh*tstorm.

A forfeit after completion wouldn't affect the wagers paid or lost. It would take some sort of on-field, immediate action to affect sportsbooks. These after-the-fact forfeitures happen in the college ranks every once in a while...

 

[QuiGon]

he'll be tempted to grab the first round pick, but it sets way, way too high a bar for future penalties to others

That is a good point.

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

2008 3rd round pick and a $500K fine.

I'm positive about a fine and maybe it will be more. I'm positive about at least one draft pick, but which one I'm purely guessing. I think my guess is actually aggressive, for I don't think it will be higher and very possibly lower.

I'm fairly confident that there will be no suspension. If signal stealing itself was against the rules, then I could see a suspension. However, signal stealing is not against the rules; Only using video for such purposes is.

There is no effing way the game is forfeited. It's impractical (Vegas will poop a brick) and it's way over the top. I do believe in forfeiture of games, but the circumstances would have to be extreme (e.g. poisoning the opposing team, bribing an opposing coach for the gameplan) in which a reasonable conclusion could be made that the act played a defining role in the outcome. In a 38-14 victory where the last three TDs were a 108yd kickoff return, a 51yd TD into triple coverage and a long and drawn out drive on the ground, I can't see a valid claim being made that the tape determined the outcome.

Regards,
Chris

 

[solman]

Loss of a sixth round pick.

(I could care less about fines and suspensions)

 

[Pujo]

The NFLPA might oppose taking a high draft pick (1st or 2nd round) as it lowers the earnings of the draft class as a whole. Unless, of course, they took the pick away and awarded it to another team, which isn't really on the table.

 

[InBillITrust]

I think the NFL will make an example out of the Patriots, so the punishment won't fit the crime. Unfortunately, I'm thinking about something on the lines of the punishment that the Minnesota Timberwolves received when they had a secret agreement to sign Joe Smith, and lost 3 1st round draft picks.

The NFL will want to do something so severe that no other team will even think about trying to steal signs.

My guess:

2-1st round draft picks (one next year, and one the following), 1 million dollar fine to the team, Belichick suspended for 1 game.

 

[Fahrenhype]

I'm not so concerned about the punishment as with when we're going to hear about it. They aren't going to let this linger into a Sunday Night broadcast are they?

I'd also like to hear what Goodell says about Belichick's "interpretation of the rules" comment. Either BB is blowing smoke or maybe there is some ambiguity that is going to make it hard to impose a harsh penalty.

 

[vyrago]

.The NFL will want to do something so severe that no other team will even think about trying to steal signs.

So stealing signs is the infraction, not video taping?

These speculations are all over the place and sounding crazier and crazier.

I hope Goodell is not as vindictive as some of the talking heads, or even as the Patriots own fans.

 

[Horace's Ivories]

lose a 7th round pick

 

[JoePats]

2nd round pick next year, substantial fine, no suspension.