After watching the Colts over the past few years, and sometimes struggling to understand how their defense can be physically overmatched, yet still seem to perform decently, I think Ive figured out the connundrum.
This is my opinion. The Colts live by overcommitting. There run D issues are well-documented, and clearly understandable because they are undersized, and their DL is asked to rush the QB, and find the ball carrier on the way if it happens to be a run. They twist, stunt, spin, and often take themesleves out of postion on running plays. HOWEVER, at the same time, those pass rush moves create negative plays. It is VERY OFTEN that you see a minus run against the Colt D, when if that defender who got in the backfield didnt make the tackle, there was loads of running room. In other words you cannot expect to run against this defense as you would traditionally against a typical D. You risk more bad plays, for the result of more big plays. (Contrary to typical running game strategy).
More importantly Ive seen the 'weak Colt run D' stop a ton of 3rd and shorts. Essentially everyone shoots a gap, and they are banking on one of them making a tackle for loss. If you block it, there is a big gain for you.
Additionally, if the Colts focus on stopping the run, their cover2 allows the corners and safety to get into the play.
In pass D, the coverage is not great, but they try to keep everything in front of them, and hope to execute a pass rush.
My conclusion is that the Colt defense is GOOD if you are playing on their terms, and awful, if you have them playing on yours.
In obvious run or pass situations, their scheme puts players in position to make the play. In not obvious run or pass situaiton, their scheme allows you to attack weaknesses. Those weaknesses are created by BOTH their overcommitting, AND the fact that to play this style you put players on the field who have weaknesses (i.e very small DL and LBs, corners who play cover2 well play good run support, but struggle to cover if the pass rush isn't helping them).
I think in last years playoffs, the Ravens and Chiefs played into the Colts hands. They came out to run the ball, and allowed the Colts to overcommit to one thing. Doing that they ended up in long 3rd downs that could be overcommitted to the pass rush.
Many fans questioned us not running the ball more agaisnt the Colts in the 2nd half last year, but I saw this happenning then. They were overcommitted to the run, and would have stopped our running game. We would have been gambling on breaking a big run, like Dillon did early in the game. Throwing, and throwing short, would have been the best way to stay on the field.
I am finally convinced that our WRs played a big part in that loss. Not because the D shouldn't have played better, but because with good WRs (I'd call what we had last year in the playoffs 'capable' not good) the Colts would not have been able to do that, or if they did, we would have torched them with the passing game, eliminating at least one or 2 times their offense got on the field.
If you stay in nuetral run/pass down and distances, and break trends to run whne they overcommit to the pass, and pass when they overcommit to the run, the Colts D will have a hard time stopping anyone. The problem is most teams look at:
1) an undersized front 7 that cannot stop the run toe to toe
2) an all out pass rush that you want to avoid (especially since they are very good at the strip sack)
and decide to try to run it down their throats. You will gain some yardage, but you are playing right into their hands.
