Nolan Nawrocki PFW 1st Mock Draft

[tuckeverlasting]

Yikes... I remembet when maroney and jackson were suppose to do the same.

I want D the first few picks. This team needs players who can penetrate and scare qb's.
You can find solid rb's in the later 2n and on.

depends on how the draft falls. i doubt spiller drops like that, but if he does, i want him. an upgraded offense would take alot of pressure off the d. brady's not going to be around forever.

 

[carolinatony]

depends on how the draft falls. i doubt spiller drops like that, but if he does, i want him. an upgraded offense would take alot of pressure off the d. brady's not going to be around forever.

A upgraded offense would take alot of pressure off the D but what is more important is the question that needs to address.
Unless our defense can pressure the QB; will we be int he Mix for the SB next year. I am not sure.
We have many picks this draft and I hope we use them to ugrade us. There is no one way to do this and we do have several holes to fill.
Someone will drop in the 1st to us and what BB does is the only question I have.

 

[MaineMan]

Does that mean you shouldnt take a wideout in the first, no. Just because teams seem to be able to get good value in the later rounds and higher picks turn into busts from time to time at the WR positions is not enough of a reason to pass on a good one. More times than not, WR in the first two rounds are more productive than those taken in the later rounds.

Hits v. Misses on WRs by round, 2000-2006:

Admittedly arbitrary definitions:

A "Hit" is a guy who has stuck around for 3+ years as a legit #1, #2 or #3 WR.
A "Miss" is a guy who was never as much as a truly productive #3, at least not for very long. A "Miss" in the first two rounds would, of course, be a "Bust", but probably not so much for guys taken in RD-3 or later.
A "Star" is a guy who became a legit #1 or a very high-value #2 (could have been, or turned into, the #1 for another team).

I didn't go beyond 2006 because the jury is still out on a lot of those guys.

1st RD
16 Hits
15 Misses
8 Stars

2nd RD
19 Hits
10 Misses
3 stars

3rd RD
7 Hits
20 misses
3 Stars

4th thru 7th RD
14 Hits
124 misses
4 Stars

During this period, there were also 6 Hits and 2 Stars culled from among countless Undrafted College Free Agents.

So, this more or less supports your hypothesis on the averages. Pretty clearly, if you must have a "Star" WR, you're odds seem better in Round-1. However, if you're just looking to "Hit" on a solid contributor, you're maybe taking a much lower risk waiting on a Round-2 guy.

Of course, each draft class is very different:

- The 2003 and 2006 drafts produced only 5 Hits combined in the first two rounds, though 3 of those 5 became "Stars" (Andre Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Santonio Holmes).

- The 2002 draft produced 9 Hits by itself in the first two rounds (and only 2 Busts), though none of those 9 guys became real "Stars".

- The best year for the later rounds (lumping together 3 thru 7 here) was probably 2006: 5 hits and 2 Stars with 18 Misses, with all the Hits and Stars coming in the 4th and 7th rounds.

My feeling is that 2010 could be a pretty good year:

1st Two RDs
7-10 Hits
1-3 Stars

3rd & 4th RD
3-5 Hits
0-1 Stars

 

[SunnyDenmark]

IF (and only if) Weiss in ND used a similar WR route tree / passing offense that Pats use - would I be willing to draft Tate at #22. Reason being Pats have a complicated system that some WR justs can't comprehend (see Galloway, Chad Jackson, Bethel, Donald Hays (former Panther) and maybe Greg Lewis).

Pats need instant production and not someone to be learning the ropes next year at WR (otherwise our own Brandon Tate will take the spot).

I would rather go for BPA on defense at #22. We could be quite a few players down this spring on the defensive side. If Wilfork is francaised and traded that is one hole. Also J .Green, Bodin , Burgess are all FA's and could sign elsewhere. A Thomas could be released. So that is quite of few holes to fill.

 

[p8ryts]

New one round mock from Nolan Nawrocki at ProFootballWeekly:

ProFootballWeekly.com - Mock draft: Defensive tackles dominate

He has the Pats taking WR Golden Tate at 22. My "dream" scenario is within reach in his draft, as he has CJ Spiller going #20 to Houston and Carlos Dunlap #24 to Philadelphia. But he also has Joe Haden going #19 to Atlanta, which I think is ridiculous, as Haden will be gone 10 picks earlier.

Not a very good mock, FWIW.

Makes no sense to me, Golden Tate at 22?

 

[Wretch]

Offense wins games and defense wins championships. The lesson of 2007!

Really? How good was Arizona's or Pitt's D last year and how good are Indy's and NO's? The best of the bunch is Pitt's from last year but Pitt isn't as good as the Jets this year or Baltimore has been traditionally.

 

[MaineMan]

IF (and only if) Weiss in ND used a similar WR route tree / passing offense that Pats use - would I be willing to draft Tate at #22. Reason being Pats have a complicated system that some WR justs can't comprehend (see Galloway, Chad Jackson, Bethel, Donald Hays (former Panther) and maybe Greg Lewis).

Pats need instant production and not someone to be learning the ropes next year at WR (otherwise our own Brandon Tate will take the spot).

I would rather go for BPA on defense at #22. We could be quite a few players down this spring on the defensive side. If Wilfork is francaised and traded that is one hole. Also J .Green, Bodin , Burgess are all FA's and could sign elsewhere. A Thomas could be released. So that is quite of few holes to fill.

That's one of the reasons I like Shipley. He seems like a guy who can adapt quickly to any QB, any system (same reason I liked Collie so much last year). Yeah, I know "he's mostly a slot receiver", but he'd still be another guy who's likely to be open a lot and catch the ball and move the chains. Plus, we can probably still get him with our final 2nd round pick.

 

[mayoclinic]

IF (and only if) Weiss in ND used a similar WR route tree / passing offense that Pats use - would I be willing to draft Tate at #22. Reason being Pats have a complicated system that some WR justs can't comprehend (see Galloway, Chad Jackson, Bethel, Donald Hays (former Panther) and maybe Greg Lewis).

Pats need instant production and not someone to be learning the ropes next year at WR (otherwise our own Brandon Tate will take the spot).

I would rather go for BPA on defense at #22. We could be quite a few players down this spring on the defensive side. If Wilfork is francaised and traded that is one hole. Also J .Green, Bodin , Burgess are all FA's and could sign elsewhere. A Thomas could be released. So that is quite of few holes to fill.

One of the reasons I could see bringing Antonio Bryant in this year is that the Pats system is very complex, and may take even an experienced WR time to learn. Bryant has the talent to be a great #2 and borderline #1 WR. He should be able to contribute enough early on to take some pressure of of Julian Edelman and Brandon Tate. If those guys develop and Bryant learns the system, he could take a #1 role if Randy Moss doesn't stay on beyond 2010, while we draft a rookie in 2011 1st round (AJ Green, Jonathan Baldwin, Michael Floyd, etc.).

 

[SunnyDenmark]

One of the reasons I could see bringing Antonio Bryant in this year is that the Pats system is very complex, and may take even an experienced WR time to learn. Bryant has the talent to be a great #2 and borderline #1 WR. He should be able to contribute enough early on to take some pressure of of Julian Edelman and Brandon Tate. If those guys develop and Bryant learns the system, he could take a #1 role if Randy Moss doesn't stay on beyond 2010, while we draft a rookie in 2011 1st round (AJ Green, Jonathan Baldwin, Michael Floyd, etc.).

Agreed. I think more likely BB would target a FA WR than a 1st / 2nd round WR due to the learning curve issues. Integrating the TE's more into our passing attack could help lessen the production deficiency in the #3 WR position while either the FA WR gets up to speed OR Brandon Tate or one of the other Pats WR step up and grab the position. But the kink in that idea is that Welker will likely start on PUP so that means 2 WR positions those production will be off (slot & # 3). Hopefully Edelmann will not have a sophmore slump. Even in a good year- no way Julian can come close to matching Welkers 110+ catch total. We NEED to have the TE catch more balls in 2010 or go to more running attack to offset lack of passing production while Welker is out & until a dependable # 3 WR is found. OMG....!

DEFENSE , we need a DEFENSE!

 

[mgteich]

How long did it take Moss and Welker to searn our system?

One of the reasons I could see bringing Antonio Bryant in this year is that the Pats system is very complex, and may take even an experienced WR time to learn. Bryant has the talent to be a great #2 and borderline #1 WR. He should be able to contribute enough early on to take some pressure of of Julian Edelman and Brandon Tate. If those guys develop and Bryant learns the system, he could take a #1 role if Randy Moss doesn't stay on beyond 2010, while we draft a rookie in 2011 1st round (AJ Green, Jonathan Baldwin, Michael Floyd, etc.).

 

[MaineMan]

How long did it take Moss and Welker to searn our system?

Fair point. But I think that, to at least some extent, McDaniels tailored the offensive scheme to optimally exploit Moss and Welker and what they're best at. The decline in TE participation coincided and may have been a side effect.

I don't know that the scheme is intrinsically complex, but it seems it does require a WR to read the defense thoroughly for himself while on the move, as well as to have great route skills. So, football smarts and athleticism are probably way more valuable than raw speed or height.

 

[sg14]

Kinda amazing that Edelman could pull that off but Galloway couldn't.

Or we better pick the right Vet WR.

Fair point. But I think that, to at least some extent, McDaniels tailored the offensive scheme to optimally exploit Moss and Welker and what they're best at. The decline in TE participation coincided and may have been a side effect.

I don't know that the scheme is intrinsically complex, but it seems it does require a WR to read the defense thoroughly for himself while on the move, as well as to have great route skills. So, football smarts and athleticism are probably way more valuable than raw speed or height.

 

[MaineMan]

Kinda amazing that Edelman could pull that off but Galloway couldn't.

Or we better pick the right Vet WR.

Edelman "reads" like a QB. Apparently, Galloway didn't. He was never in the right place at the right time. Same problem we had with Chad Jackson and Bethel Johnson.

I really believe that a guy who can "read" and consistently find the open spot where the QB is going to be looking for him and at the right moment is much rarer than guys who are fast and/or made a big noise in college.

It's why I think the Pats need to take a good look at Blair White, Jordan Shipley, Jeremy Williams, Freddie Barnes, Andre Roberts, etc. and not exclusively at the "top" prospects.

It's also why DeSean Jackson is such an exceptional WR. It's the above ability probably more than his great speed.

 

[sg14]

I see Mardy Gilyard WR as a "reader". Who knows how to find open spots on the field.

Not neccessrily as a premier, first round, high end speed WR

I am just guessing at Gilyard's draft postion as something in the 3rd round, just what he looks like to me, I'm figuring he will be slotted after the combine.

Still have to give Edelman credit for seeing the field from the other end of the pass, not that you weren't.

Edelman "reads" like a QB. Apparently, Galloway didn't. He was never in the right place at the right time. Same problem we had with Chad Jackson and Bethel Johnson.

I really believe that a guy who can "read" and consistently find the open spot where the QB is going to be looking for him and at the right moment is much rarer than guys who are fast and/or made a big noise in college.

It's why I think the Pats need to take a good look at Blair White, Jordan Shipley, Jeremy Williams, Freddie Barnes, Andre Roberts, etc. and not exclusively at the "top" prospects.