Marginal improvement vs the rest of the division & conference...
Tougher schedule than last year, which had Lady Luck spreading her legs nice & wide with bad weather & opponents' injuries...
The smallest & least experienced (in their current roles) coaching staff in the league...
To me this all adds-up to: 7-10.
Again, here's essentially how it breaks down - or at least where my head was at.
- I had them stealing the opener because while the Dolphins have a solid group of receivers, they still have Tua and I feel like the Patriots could potentially win that one since I give the edge to Mac over his former teammate. I also have them beating Miami in December at Gillette, so that's essentially two wins. (2 wins)
- I have them sweeping the Jets (2 wins)
- I have them splitting with Buffalo (1 win, 1 loss)
So that's 5 wins.
From there, this is what I was thinking:
Can they beat Pittsburgh at their place? I don't like the match-up with Flores in the mix, but I give Mac the edge over Trubisky. If Roethlisberger was there, maybe I'd feel differently. (1 win)
Can they beat the Ravens at home? Sure, I don't think Baltimore is invincible, although my mindset might have been different if this was in Baltimore. If they get pressure on Jackson and he turns it over, and he tends to, I like their chances. (1 win)
Can they beat the Packers at Lambeau? I don't know about that ... (1 loss)
Can they beat Detroit? - They should (1 win)
Can they beat Cleveland? - They should (1 win)
Can they beat the Bears? - They should (1 win)
Can they beat Indianapolis? - They lost against Wentz, I don't think they do against Ryan (1 win)
Can they beat the Vikings? - They should, but like I said, they tend to lose weird ones against someone like Cousins for some reason (1 loss)
Can they beat Arizona? - They should, especially since the Cardinals are usually a mess by December. (1 win)
Can they beat the Raiders? - They lose against old coaches and McDaniels seems like he's got that team heading in the right direction (1 loss)
Can they beat the Bengals? - If they're playing well by then and with this game being at home, who is to say they don't win a good back-and-forth battle? (1 win).
So that's how it broke down. None of the above games are unwinnable and looking at it objectively, it's not crazy. Truthfully, I went through each game week-by-week and then looked at the record at the end. But none of the above teams are unbeatable, so I don't really get the outrage.
Again, look at the match-ups. Detroit? Cleveland? Indianapolis? Arizona? Chicago?
Why is the idea of them ending up with 10+ wins so crazy...? Honestly, I got annihilated on the radio yesterday for suggesting they might win the opener, sweep the Jets, beat the Lions, Browns, Colts, Cardinals, and Bears and split against Buffalo. Is that really that bizarre of a notion? I guess the questionable ones would be whether or not they can beat Pittsburgh and Baltimore and pull off an upset against Cincinnati...but still...?