BradyToAmendola
Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job
- Joined
- Aug 3, 2010
- Messages
- 1,068
- Reaction score
- 148
I saw that Kirk Minihane (and not just him, many others over the past week have said the same thing) wrote an article saying to basically "Look at Brady's stats since 2010, especially the passer rating, and see how it goes down every year."
These are the stats and years Minihane lists to show Brady's drop in numbers year by year.
Passer rating
2010: 111.0
2011: 105.6
2012: 98.7
2013: 87.3
2014: 79.1
completion percentage
2010: 65.9
2011: 65.5
2012: 63.0
2013: 60.5
2014: 59.1
Yards per attempt
2011: 8.6
2012: 7.6
2013: 6.9
2014: 5.8
Touchdown passes
2011: 39
2012: 34
2013: 25
2014: On pace for 16
Passing yards
2011: 5,235
2012: 4,827
2013: 4,343
2014: 3,164
Surely the reason these numbers are going down is because Brady is getting older each year, right?
Wrong. Extend the time table --- to 2006.
Passer rating
2006: 87.9 - 29 years old
2007: 117.2
2009: 96.2
2010: 111.0
2011: 105.6
2012: 98.7
2013: 87.3
2014: 79.1
Huh... that's weird. Tom Brady was 29 in 2006, surely not at the point where age should be hindering his play, and yet his passer rating is a feeble 87.9? That's the exact same as 2013 when he was 36 years old! We're only 4 games through this season, so it's safe to assume Brady's passer rating will probably finish right at 87 or so by the end of the year. It's certainly too soon to say it will flatten out at this 79.1 mark, there's just way too much football left.
Just for fun though, I decided to find out Brady's passer rating in 2006 through 4 games so we could get a more apples to apples comparison between 2006 and 2014.
Brady's passer rating in 2006 at age 29 through 4 games... was *80.7. Almost identical to what it is in 2014 at age 37.
So please, enlighten me. How is Brady "in decline" if he is putting up the exact numbers now as he did when he was 29? Was he also in decline at age 29? That seems a tad young to already be in decline.
Perhaps there is some other correlation we can make, because age appears to not make a difference --- after all, he is performing the exact same at age 37 as he did at age 29.
If you'll recall, in 2006 Brady had perhaps the worst support cast since.. well, now. Reche Caldwell, Ben Watson, Troy Brown, Kevin Faulk, Doug Gabriel, Laurence Maroney.
Pretty similar to the current supporting cast of Edelman, Gronk, Vereen, Dobson, LaFell, and the worst offensive line in the NFL at 55 pressures.
So the point of the thread is this: Brady is not declining; age is not the reason for the low passer rating this season. So please stop repeating that same bull$**** notion just because the media is saying it. Correlation =/= causation. The reason for the drop in numbers is because of lack of support at WR, TE, RB, and OL.
I do NOT want this to turn into a debate about if the front office is helping him out enough, that was NOT the point of this thread. This was only meant to address the "Tom Brady is too old!" people.
*Formula to find out Brady's passer rating through first 4 games of 2006:
Completions: 72
Attempts: 133
Yds: 891
TDs: 6
INTs: 3
a=(comp/att - .3) x 5 = 1.206
b=(yds/att - 3) x .25 = .9248
c=(td/att) x 20 =.9022
d=2.375 - (int/att) =1.811
(a+b+c+d) / 6= .807
.807 x 100= 80.7
Some more stats to compare 2006 to 2014:
2014:
Passer rating: 79.1
Yds: 791
Y/A: 5.77
Completion %: 59%
Interceptions: 2
2006:
Passer rating: 80.7
Yds: 891
Y/A: 6.69
Completion %: 54%
Interceptions: 3
These are the stats and years Minihane lists to show Brady's drop in numbers year by year.
Passer rating
2010: 111.0
2011: 105.6
2012: 98.7
2013: 87.3
2014: 79.1
completion percentage
2010: 65.9
2011: 65.5
2012: 63.0
2013: 60.5
2014: 59.1
Yards per attempt
2011: 8.6
2012: 7.6
2013: 6.9
2014: 5.8
Touchdown passes
2011: 39
2012: 34
2013: 25
2014: On pace for 16
Passing yards
2011: 5,235
2012: 4,827
2013: 4,343
2014: 3,164
Surely the reason these numbers are going down is because Brady is getting older each year, right?
Wrong. Extend the time table --- to 2006.
Passer rating
2006: 87.9 - 29 years old
2007: 117.2
2009: 96.2
2010: 111.0
2011: 105.6
2012: 98.7
2013: 87.3
2014: 79.1
Huh... that's weird. Tom Brady was 29 in 2006, surely not at the point where age should be hindering his play, and yet his passer rating is a feeble 87.9? That's the exact same as 2013 when he was 36 years old! We're only 4 games through this season, so it's safe to assume Brady's passer rating will probably finish right at 87 or so by the end of the year. It's certainly too soon to say it will flatten out at this 79.1 mark, there's just way too much football left.
Just for fun though, I decided to find out Brady's passer rating in 2006 through 4 games so we could get a more apples to apples comparison between 2006 and 2014.
Brady's passer rating in 2006 at age 29 through 4 games... was *80.7. Almost identical to what it is in 2014 at age 37.
So please, enlighten me. How is Brady "in decline" if he is putting up the exact numbers now as he did when he was 29? Was he also in decline at age 29? That seems a tad young to already be in decline.
Perhaps there is some other correlation we can make, because age appears to not make a difference --- after all, he is performing the exact same at age 37 as he did at age 29.
If you'll recall, in 2006 Brady had perhaps the worst support cast since.. well, now. Reche Caldwell, Ben Watson, Troy Brown, Kevin Faulk, Doug Gabriel, Laurence Maroney.
Pretty similar to the current supporting cast of Edelman, Gronk, Vereen, Dobson, LaFell, and the worst offensive line in the NFL at 55 pressures.
So the point of the thread is this: Brady is not declining; age is not the reason for the low passer rating this season. So please stop repeating that same bull$**** notion just because the media is saying it. Correlation =/= causation. The reason for the drop in numbers is because of lack of support at WR, TE, RB, and OL.
I do NOT want this to turn into a debate about if the front office is helping him out enough, that was NOT the point of this thread. This was only meant to address the "Tom Brady is too old!" people.
*Formula to find out Brady's passer rating through first 4 games of 2006:
Completions: 72
Attempts: 133
Yds: 891
TDs: 6
INTs: 3
a=(comp/att - .3) x 5 = 1.206
b=(yds/att - 3) x .25 = .9248
c=(td/att) x 20 =.9022
d=2.375 - (int/att) =1.811
(a+b+c+d) / 6= .807
.807 x 100= 80.7
Some more stats to compare 2006 to 2014:
2014:
Passer rating: 79.1
Yds: 791
Y/A: 5.77
Completion %: 59%
Interceptions: 2
2006:
Passer rating: 80.7
Yds: 891
Y/A: 6.69
Completion %: 54%
Interceptions: 3
Last edited: