My reponse to people who think Brady is in decline.

[1960Pats]

I don't see how anyone can deny that Brady is on the downside of his career and has declined. Time waits for no man. I wonder if getting married to Gisele and having his nut bag taken away has affected his quarterbacking. It looks that way.

It's funny how every Brady discussion turns into a comparison to Peyton "Pick Six" Manning. That guy has choked so many times in big games and has so many one and done playoffs that it's beyond laughable. Even the year he won his only SB he played like dog mess in the playoffs and was aided by the refs to beat the Pats.

Brady = Montana
Manning = Favre

 

[Deus Irae]

I don't see how anyone can deny that Brady is on the downside of his career and has declined. Time waits for no man. I wonder if getting married to Gisele and having his nut bag taken away has affected his quarterbacking. It looks that way.

It's funny how every Brady discussion turns into a comparison to Peyton "Pick Six" Manning. That guy has choked so many times in big games and has so many one and done playoffs that it's beyond laughable. Even the year he won his only SB he played like dog mess in the playoffs and was aided by the refs to beat the Pats.

Brady = Montana
Manning = Favre

Manning is throwing better this year than he did last. Time seems to have decided to wait for him. Perhaps it's doing the same for Brady. We can't tell yet.

 

[TomPatriot]

Hypothetical situation:

Regardless of the rest of their careers and Brady's higher winning %, more SBs, etc, in the twighlight years of their careers, Brady DOES decline much more noticeably than Manning and Manning is far more dominant as he rides off into the sunset than Brady is.

How many of you would not be able to deal with that and would jump off buildings? I'd guess probably 35-55%.

So how long have you been a Jets fan?

 

[IllegalContact]

Rick pitino was right about the sports fans in this town

 

[JoeSixPat]

I saw that Kirk Minihane (and not just him, many others over the past week have said the same thing) wrote an article saying to basically "Look at Brady's stats since 2010, especially the passer rating, and see how it goes down every year."

These are the stats and years Minihane lists to show Brady's drop in numbers year by year.

Passer rating
2010: 111.0
2011: 105.6
2012: 98.7
2013: 87.3
2014: 79.1

completion percentage
2010: 65.9
2011: 65.5
2012: 63.0
2013: 60.5
2014: 59.1

Yards per attempt
2011: 8.6
2012: 7.6
2013: 6.9
2014: 5.8

Touchdown passes
2011: 39
2012: 34
2013: 25
2014: On pace for 16

Passing yards
2011: 5,235
2012: 4,827
2013: 4,343
2014: 3,164

Surely the reason these numbers are going down is because Brady is getting older each year, right?

Wrong. Extend the time table --- to 2006.

Passer rating
2006: 87.9 - 29 years old
2007: 117.2
2009: 96.2
2010: 111.0
2011: 105.6
2012: 98.7
2013: 87.3
2014: 79.1

Huh... that's weird. Tom Brady was 29 in 2006, surely not at the point where age should be hindering his play, and yet his passer rating is a feeble 87.9? That's the exact same as 2013 when he was 36 years old! We're only 4 games through this season, so it's safe to assume Brady's passer rating will probably finish right at 87 or so by the end of the year. It's certainly too soon to say it will flatten out at this 79.1 mark, there's just way too much football left.

Just for fun though, I decided to find out Brady's passer rating in 2006 through 4 games so we could get a more apples to apples comparison between 2006 and 2014.

Brady's passer rating in 2006 at age 29 through 4 games... was *80.7. Almost identical to what it is in 2014 at age 37.

So please, enlighten me. How is Brady "in decline" if he is putting up the exact numbers now as he did when he was 29? Was he also in decline at age 29? That seems a tad young to already be in decline.

Perhaps there is some other correlation we can make, because age appears to not make a difference --- after all, he is performing the exact same at age 37 as he did at age 29.

If you'll recall, in 2006 Brady had perhaps the worst support cast since.. well, now. Reche Caldwell, Ben Watson, Troy Brown, Kevin Faulk, Doug Gabriel, Laurence Maroney.
Pretty similar to the current supporting cast of Edelman, Gronk, Vereen, Dobson, LaFell, and the worst offensive line in the NFL at 55 pressures.

So the point of the thread is this: Brady is not declining; age is not the reason for the low passer rating this season. So please stop repeating that same bull$**** notion just because the media is saying it. Correlation =/= causation. The reason for the drop in numbers is because of lack of support at WR, TE, RB, and OL.

I do NOT want this to turn into a debate about if the front office is helping him out enough, that was NOT the point of this thread. This was only meant to address the "Tom Brady is too old!" people.

*Formula to find out Brady's passer rating through first 4 games of 2006:
Completions: 72
Attempts: 133
Yds: 891
TDs: 6
INTs: 3
a=(comp/att - .3) x 5 = 1.206
b=(yds/att - 3) x .25 = .9248
c=(td/att) x 20 =.9022
d=2.375 - (int/att) =1.811
(a+b+c+d) / 6= .807
.807 x 100= 80.7

Some more stats to compare 2006 to 2014:
2014:
Passer rating: 79.1
Yds: 791
Y/A: 5.77
Completion %: 59%
Interceptions: 2

2006:
Passer rating: 80.7
Yds: 891
Y/A: 6.69
Completion %: 54%
Interceptions: 3

Um - two words

Reche Caldwell

I'd also feel better about your point if your screen name weren't what it is.

Now, in 2006 they came close to going to the Super Bowl despite a very mediocre offense led by a WR who would be out of the NFL the following year - and a great many fans here asserted the offense was fine and did not need a deep WR.

Belichick disagreed and invested in Moss, Stallworth and also brought in some guy named Welker.

I'd say that Brady, with protection from the OL, can be as effective with his 2014 offense as he was with his his 2006 offense - but of course the OL is not doing their job (and neither is the DL which had the benefit of some better players then as well)

 

[Canuck]

Is Brady in decline, well I guess it's how you define decline. The results are still. Still averages 12 wins a season. Still finishes first in the AFC East. Making it to the playoffs every year and Divisional, Conference and SB games. So if you go by those results, no he is not in decline.

Where I see the decline is physically. There I do see a change. I first noticed it last year. How tired his voice sounded on his Monday interview. I saw signs of a dead arm at the end of the season. How it hung by his side when he was walking. How he had to use more of his body to get zip on the ball rather then arm strength alone.

Things I noticed this year that may or may not be a sign of physical decline. He is hesitant to run the ball to pick-up yards. Even when he has wide open area to run for first down or even gain significant yards he will pass the ball. Could be a sign that his legs are going or/and he is trying to avoid hits.

He is far more conservative when throwing the ball then I am used to seeing. In the KC game, he threw 1 ball to LaFell that had lots of zip on it, in a tight window with defenders all around LaFell. It was a wow, that was a nice throw moment for me. I really don't know why there are so few of those wow moments now.

My perception is that the accuracy on his long throws has declined. His touch on those throws were never one of his strong areas but it looks to me that he is missing by a larger margin. That could be a sign of less strength in arm and legs.

This year's problems, I think are mostly from lack of confidence in the OL rather then physical decline. When the OL gives him time to throw he looks like the same Brady we are used to seeing. Last year there was problems with pass protection but they could still run the ball. Even though the pass protection was lacking last year, they kind of knew where the problem areas were and could work around it. They could slide the pocket, run screens and draw plays.

This year there are problems at LT, LG, C, RG. Though I think trading Mankins was the right thing long term, I think it hurt the stability of the line and in the run game for now.

In conclusion, even though I think some of Tom's physical skills has declined, he is still one of the elite QB's playing. His will to win and over come adversity is truly remarkable and what sets him apart from most other QB's.

The problem isn't Brady it's the OL.

 

[hwc]

Increasing: ability to read defenses, marshall the offense

I worry that his leadership and ability to marshall the offense might be his most serious decline. Have the young players gotten demoralized with his yelling and tuned him out. Note how many of them chuckle and comment on his "intensity". It certainly doesn't look like he makes football fun for his teammates.

Just pure speculation based on nothing more than watching him on TV.

 

[james87654]

I worry that his leadership and ability to marshall the offense might be his most serious decline. Have the young players gotten demoralized with his yelling and tuned him out. Note how many of them chuckle and comment on his "intensity". It certainly doesn't look like he makes football fun for his teammates.

Just pure speculation based on nothing more than watching him on TV.

even Gasper ( a brady homer) commented that Tom has never been the most natural leader of a locker room

in the early years it was Willie, Rodney and the rest

Toms a good guy and has done amazing things for this franchise but he doesnt have the personality/"street cred" to "lead" in that sort of ray lewis way

which, in some ways, is a good thing

 

[PATS16N0]

even Gasper ( a brady homer) commented that Tom has never been the most natural leader of a locker room

in the early years it was Willie, Rodney and the rest

Toms a good guy and has done amazing things for this franchise but he doesnt have the personality/"street cred" to "lead" in that sort of ray lewis way

which, in some ways, is a good thing

It's Brady's job to lead the defense?
Tom has been one of the most fiery offensive leaders in football for some time. In fact, he is easily THE greatest leader in the NFL on the offensive side of the ball. Who compares? Answer: Nobody.

I have no idea what kind of leader Brady is or isn't in the locker room, but on the sidelines and on the field he's been one of a kind. Calling out Tom for leadership is straight up ridiculous. Do you even watch football?

 

[james87654]

It's Brady's job to lead the defense?
Tom has been one of the most fiery offensive leaders in football for some time. In fact, he is easily THE greatest leader in the NFL on the offensive side of the ball. Who compares? Answer: Nobody.

I have no idea what kind of leader Brady is or isn't in the locker room, but on the sidelines and on the field he's been one of a kind. Calling out Tom for leadership is straight up ridiculous. Do you even watch football?

i was just echoing what gasper said on Felger and mazz......take it up with him

 

[Brewskies]

We all have ups and downs, we all get frustrated at times with our kids or our parents and we all decline as we age, soreness and injuries accelerate the decline. The past couple of years Brady has gotten killed because of the weak offensive line. We have all seen this first hand. So IMO we should be talking about the decline of BB and his coaches along with the GM that doesn't give the tools to Brady that would assist with slowing down his decline.

 

[PATS16N0]

We're still talking about Tom Brady here right?

I mean, he's never been a leader now?

Some people are following this `decline` narrative into the bizarro-universe. 4 games into the season with no protection and I guess it's open season to start completely rewriting history.

 

[Deus Irae]

even Gasper ( a brady homer) commented that Tom has never been the most natural leader of a locker room

That's not what Gasper said. What he said was that Brady is a lead by example guy, as opposed to a rah rah guy like Bruschi.

That's a huge difference between what Gasper said and what you're claiming he said.

 

[james87654]

That's not what Gasper said.

"i have a lot of respect for tom.....but ive never seen him as this great leader.......i always thought he was a great lead by example guy......but i never looked at him as someone who through his words was gonna fire up the team and get everybody behind him......"

oct 3rd.......hour 3......about 9 minutes in

 

[PATS16N0]

 

[Deus Irae]

"i have a lot of respect for tom.....but ive never seen him as this great leader.......i always thought he was a great lead by example guy......but i never looked at him as someone who through his words was gonna fire up the team and get everybody behind him......"

oct 3rd.......hour 3......about 9 minutes in

Read what you wrote. It's exactly what I said.

 

[james87654]

Read what you wrote. It's exactly what I said.

thats exactly what i quoted, before you edited your post

 

[james87654]

That's not what Gasper said. What he said was that Brady is a lead by example guy, as opposed to a rah rah guy like Bruschi.

That's a huge difference between what Gasper said and what you're claiming he said.

"and he's been put in this position the last couple of years where he is one of those guys who is supposed to lead with what he says and i dont think thats a real strength"

im quoting him

 

[Deus Irae]

thats exactly what i quoted, before you edited your post

You said one thing and quoted another. That's the point. Your initial post was incorrect.

To paraphrase your earlier post: I quoted you.

 

[james87654]

You said one thing and quoted another. That's the point. Your initial post was incorrect.

To paraphrase your earlier post: I quoted you.

well.....i just have to respectfully disagree

gasper saying that brady is not a verbal/personality leader, but instead a lead by example guy, is in line with what i said.....and the way i used Willie and rodney as examples

its ok to be wrong, deus......happens to the best of us