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My predictions for Brady's numbers next season.

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Va_Pats_Fan, Jun 30, 2007.

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  1. Va_Pats_Fan

    Va_Pats_Fan Rookie

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    #95 Jersey

    assumptions I made when doing these calcs..

    - next year will be a career year for TB.
    - Tom will meet or exceed his "best numbers"

    His most attempts is 601 in 2002. I used this number. His highest completion rate is 63.9 in 2001, so I used that. This gives Toms passing numbers as

    601 attempts and 384 completions.

    His best yards per attempt came in 2004 @ 7.79. I increased this by a mere 5% to account for having not just 1, but 2 deep threats. Using his gross TDs per yard and gross ints per yard, and applying all the calculations I came up with these numbers

    601 attempts
    384 completions
    8.18 YPA
    4915 yards
    34 TDs
    18 ints.


    if his YPA goes up 10%, the total yards goes to 5150!!!!!!!!

    two questions for everyone.

    If TB was to break a regular season QB record this year

    what record do you think it would be?
    what record do you wish it could be?
  2. PonyExpress

    PonyExpress Rookie

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    My prediction...
    Brady: 4100 yards 30 TDs 12 INT 65% comp rate
  3. PATRIOT64

    PATRIOT64 Rookie

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    4,900 yards? - What was in your cheerios today?

    Thats a homer dream if I ever saw one - please get real
    Good WR corps or not,we are actually going to use Maroney and Morris more than just a couple of touches a game.

    NO WAY in Patriot heaven is Brady going to even sniff 4,900 - In reality 4,100-4,200 at max is realistic,Anymore is dreamland - He is NOT Manning nor do the Pats plan heavily padded passing games weekly like the Colts.
  4. Va_Pats_Fan

    Va_Pats_Fan Rookie

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    #95 Jersey

    hey, I just plugged in the numbers from his career, and thats what came out.

    Tell me, how do you know what the pats plan? you have no more idea than me, or anyone else :)
  5. JoeSixPat

    JoeSixPat Rookie

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    If everything goes as Belichick intends Brady will only have an average to above average year.

    If the running game and defense somehow falter, look for big numbers from Brady and his deep WR arsenal and an all time career high year.

    Putting the ball in the air - especially throwing it deep - is always a high risk high reward scenario. And generally BB hates high risk.

    Last year's deep threat was a joke, with only 2 passes over 40 yards the entire season. There will be many more than that this year but the intent is to open up the middle of the field for the higher percentage, lower risk mid to short range pass.

    Stallworth will be an all purpose WR, Welker will catch a lot of 10 yd passes and Moss's major impact will be as a 6' 4" endzone option.

    With what at worst should be an equal balance in the running game - and at best should see the RBs take the ball the majority of times (once we have a nice lead) while the Defense stymies the opposing offense, the game plan for next season is most definately NOT to see Brady have to strap the team onto his franchise shoulder.

    So my hope is that Brady does NOT have a career year allowing us to secure SB ring #4.
    Last edited: Jun 30, 2007
  6. richpats

    richpats Banned

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    3800 yards
    30 TDs
    11 INT's
    63% completion
  7. PATRIOT64

    PATRIOT64 Rookie

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    Belichick in his coaching career has rarily relied on heavy passing games,He has and always did prefer very close to 50-50 run pass games depending on how far his team was ahead or behind..This is not Don Coryell's team nor is it Tony Dungy's team :rolleyes:

    If Brady passes for 4,900 yards or more it means one thing,The teams running game is non existent and that spells doom in the playoffs or SB if we can even get to the playoffs with no running game,I don't think your argument is realistic except in your dreams.

    Maroney,Morris,Faulk ect if healthy can combine for at least 1,900-2,000 yards of rushing offense as well.
  8. BB_dynasty

    BB_dynasty Rookie

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    The only way this happens is if Maroney is injured.
  9. HEY BRO! WHAT UP?

    HEY BRO! WHAT UP? Banned

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    This will be the year that Brady breaks the 30 TD mark and eclipses 4,000 passing yards. His completion % will be somewhere around 60-63 percent. There will be a lot of deep balls thrown this year off of playaction. This is the best and most talented group of WR's Brady has had by far and there is no reason to think that Brady can't do this.
  10. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    VaPats has it right. You can not just extrapolate from the stats.

    The classic example is what happens to poor Tommy's stats, if the Pats get out to a 10 game lead in, say, 12 games, and are able to keep their own D off the field and the opposing D on the field.

    I'd go a little north of Pony on the int.s. I'd be a pessimist and throw on a couple more TDs to his total. Why a "pessimist?" Because that would mean that pounding the ball around the goal line is, in fact, a lower percentage bet without Corey. And I'd go closer to a 2-1 TD to int. percentage, based on his career numbers. That's almost always been his ratio. One could make the argument that Stallworth, Welker, and Moss would rip the ball away from the competition more effectively, or give him better leads to throw to. I think he stays at about a 2-1 ratio, but I took it down a notch (definitely all the way down to 12 int.s Split the difference). So if I may:

    About 4,000 passing (still perhaps high)
    32 TDs
    14 int.

    Basically, in the range of the other guys here. Like I say, I think the 32 TDs is high, and dependent on the close-in rushing game.

    that 4900 yards is plain old wacky, and really just shows how these stats don't reflect everything, and don't scale well when situations change.

    PFnV

    PS, someone remember to drag out all our old predictions after the season!
  11. Va_Pats_Fan

    Va_Pats_Fan Rookie

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    #95 Jersey

    I can see where 4900 yards seems over the top perhaps, but not "realistic except in your dreams".

    All I did was take Bradys best numbers, (all under Belichick) and put them into 1 year. At one time or another, Brady has hit each of those base marks (except for the 5% I tacked on to the YPA). I added the TD's and ints based on those.

    The only stretch is that they happen in the same year.....If we think with the new weapons that Brady will have a career year, then these represent his "best" numbers.
  12. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Whoops, meant to say "JoeSixPat" has it right. Boy did I flip flop my own post. Carry on.

    PFnV
  13. rabthepat

    rabthepat Rookie

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    I'd go with;

    4,100 yds passing
    30 TDs
    16 Ints

    I would like to see him improve his performance against the better teams and teams he has historically struggled against. These teams include Miami, Denver, San Diego, and Indy.
    Last edited: Jun 30, 2007
  14. Va_Pats_Fan

    Va_Pats_Fan Rookie

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    #95 Jersey

    I guess my cheerios were pretty good that morning :)

    He's on track for 4800 and an ungodly amount of TD's :)

    Anyone else care to revisit their predictions?
  15. bbabin

    bbabin Rookie

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    Congratulations. I must admit, though, I'd be more impressed if you won the "Predict the Score" contest. Now that takes some talent.
  16. Va_Pats_Fan

    Va_Pats_Fan Rookie

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    #95 Jersey

    Not lately.


    38-17


    every game.
  17. marty

    marty Rookie

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    Careful you don't stretch that arm too much!
  18. Nordy

    Nordy Rookie

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    Yeah but you also predicted he'd throw 18 INTs, which was crazy.
  19. Va_Pats_Fan

    Va_Pats_Fan Rookie

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    #95 Jersey

    heheh, can't be right on everything :)
  20. FrontSeven

    FrontSeven Rookie

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    What the hell *year* are you talking about? Was the prediction made last year for 2007 or today for 2008?

    If it was made last year for 2007, then I see low numbers everywhere. I don't understand numbers like 30-34 TDs when he already has 21. This makes me think you are all talking about 2008 (for what reason, I don't know.)

    I think the passing attempts will be nothing but a reflection of what the opposing defenses are giving us. I don't know how you figure which defense will encourage us to throw more, but I know that MN was a good example. There is a defense that is good against the run, but full of holes in the secondary. If all the defenses were built like that then I'd say forget the running game, it's going to be a 5000 yard season for Tom. They will simply exploit what is there, blow them out, and run the ball in the fourth quarter.

    Being in the weakest division might indicate something. I think this could indicate at least a perfect storm for overall success this year. As far as passing numbers go, I don't see how those AFCE teams avoid getting burned by the bomb. I don't see how we don't end up with 300+ passing yards per game for each of those games. In fact, the Jets might find themselves giving up 500 or 600 or 1000, heehehee.
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