For the past couple of weeks I've delved into various aspects of the upcoming game so I won't simply repeat everything I've said in those threads. Here, then, is my official SB pregame analysis and thoughts.
When the Patriots have the ball:
The Patriots' running game vs. the Giants' run defense
The Patriots' running game is underrated. They can hit the Giants with different weapons: the sledgehammer (BJGE), the jitterbug (Woodhead), the steady veteran (Faulk), or the explosive rookie (Ridley). During the season, they ranked #20 in the NFL in rushing at 110.3 ypg and averaged 4.0 ypc. During the postseason, they have averaged 4.0 ypc and 121.0 ypg, facing the #22 and #2 ranked rush defenses.
The Giants' D, meanwhile, is overrated against the running game. They ranked #19 against the run during the season, allowing 121.3 ypg at a whopping 4.5 yards per carry. During the postseason, the perception is that they've been better against the run, but the reality is a little different. They've allowed 120.3 yds per game and 5.0 yds per carry. Granted, some of that has been good runs by opposing QBs, so they're doing better against traditional rushing attacks, and the Patriots won't be running Tom Brady tomorrow. QBs have run, in the postseason, for 111 yds on 16 carries (6.9 ypc), meaning that the Giants have allowed "traditional" running plays to gain 250 yds on 56 carries, which comes to 4.5 ypc. And that was against the #9, the #17, and #27 ranked rush offenses.
I expect NY to play a lot of nickel. I think NE comes out in their big set and if NY goes regular D, the Pats will find some passing lanes. If NY comes out in a nickel - or whenever NY substitutes into a nickel - the Pats will go hurry up and hammer away with their two TE against a very small lineup. When the Giants go with their "NASCAR" look of 4 DEs (Tuck, JPP, Umeniyora, and Kiwanuka), their average weight will be 267 lbs. The Pats' OL will outweigh them by about 50 pounds per man on average. I see NE running the ball a lot, if for no other reason than to try to establish a rhythm and to blunt NY's pass rush early.
EDGE: New England
The Patriots' passing game vs. the Giants' pass defense
Right off the top, I have to say that the Patriots' passing offense vs. *ANY* passing defense is an edge to New England. They simply have one of the most prolific pass offenses in history, and it's been that way since 2007. No team has found a way to really stop NE. Oh, it's happened from time to time in individual games, but nobody has the personnel or scheme to consistently shut NE's passing offense down. Even in the first Giants' game this season, the Pats had 342 yards passing. This is not to say that Brady is incapable of having a bad game or that the Giants can't get turnovers off him. Both of those are distinctly possible in a one-game scenario. But on the whole, the Patriots' pass offense against ANYBODY is an advantage for New England.
I am going to assume that Gronk is operating at 75%. He won't be fully Gronk, but he won't be useless either. I think they will have to pick their spots with him - God, please don't let them waste downs using him on special teams - but he will still be a handful for NY.
Hernandez is a player NY has no matchup for. Everyone has talked about the two TEs, and it's for real. No team yet in the NFL has found a way to stop both of them. They might slow down one of them, but not both. They give NE so much flexibility, and when NE goes no-huddle they're almost impossible to stop.
One guy that everyone seems to forget amidst all the Giant WR ballwashing is only the guy who finished the season #1 in the league in receptions: Wes Welker. In their last SB, Welker had 11 rec for 103 yds, and in their first matchup this season, he had 9 rec for 136 yds. And, just for good measure, in the 2007 regular season matchup, Welker had 11 rec for 122 yds.
So in 3 games as a Patriot vs. the Giants, Welker has done this:
11-122
11-103
9-136
AVG: 10.3 rec for 120.3 yds
I mean, whatever else someone may say about this matchup, one thing is clear: the Giants have not found a way to even come close to slowing down Wes Welker. I expect him to have a big day.
And then there is Deion Branch. He's not what he used to be. But he showed in the AFCCG that he can still get deep at times. He's a Super Bowl stud and a big-game player. If the Giants focus everywhere else, I expect Branch to have a really good game.
The key, of course, will be controlling the Giants' pass rush. The Giants have a good rush, finishing tied for 3rd in the NFL with 48 sacks. But more than just the sacks, they just get a lot of pressure on opposing QBs.
But it is overstated how much pressure the Giants have put on during the playoffs. In their three games (which included an OT period), they totaled 9 sacks, 14 tackles for loss, and 18 QB hits. That's essentially an average of 3 sacks, 5 TFL, and 6 QB hits per game. Those numbers are no different than they were during the regular season (48 sacks / 16 games = 3 sacks per game).
Meanwhile, the Pats' OL has done very well, especially during the playoffs, where they have stepped up their game against top-notch pass rushing defenses. Here's what they have allowed:
vs Den (#10 in the NFL in sacks): 0 sacks, 1 TFL, 2 QB hits
vs Bal (#3 in the NFL in sacks): 1 sack, 2 TFL, 3 QB hits
So during the playoffs, against excellent pressure defenses, the Pats have been almost perfect in pass protection. In their regular season matchup this year, the Giants had 2 sacks, 2 TFL, and 3 QB hits. I do not expect much more than that in the Super Bowl.
EDGE: New England
When the Giants have the ball
The Giants' running game vs. the Patriots' run defense
The Giants had one of the worst rushing attacks in all of football this year. They finished 32nd in the league averaging 89.2 yds per game and a measly 3.5 ypc. It has gotten better in the playoffs, however, as they've averaged 117.3 yds per game on 84 carries, rushing at a 4.2 ypc clip. That's good, solid work.
What about the Pats' run defense? They were #17 during the season, allowing 117.1 yds per game at a rate of 4.6 ypc. That rate isn't good. During the playoffs, against two of the best running teams in the league (Den was #1 and Bal was #10), they allowed 260 yards on 71 carries, for a 3.7 ypc rate. In other words, they really have clamped down on the outstanding running games of their opponents in the playoffs.
In their regular season matchup, the Giants had 29 carries for 111 yds, for a 3.8 average. That was without Bradshaw, as we all know. Bradshaw, during the playoffs, has done this:
vs Atl: 14-63, 4.5 ypc
at GB: 12-63, 5.3 ypc
at SF: 20-74, 3.7 ypc
AVG: 15.3 carries, 66.7 yds, 4.4 ypc
So he's been very effective, and the Pats sometimes have trouble with backs like him. I expect him to play pretty well on Sunday.
As far as a game plan goes, I expect NY to try to pass the ball using their 3 WRs against NE's iffy secondary. The run game for NY will be their offspeed pitch, so to speak. I don't expect NY to get much more than 100 yards on the ground, barring a freak 50+ yard run somewhere along the way.
EDGE: New England
The Giants' passing game vs. the Patriots' pass defense
Here is where the Giants will make their hay. As much as I'd like to defend NE's pass defense, it's hard to. Their pass defense is essentially equal to NY's (each held their opponents to an identical 86.1 passer rating this year), but boy they give up a TON of yards. They have been better as the season has gone along:
Passing yards per game allowed
First 4 regular season games: 369/g
Last 12 regular season games: 269/g
Playoffs: 195/g
**Last 14 (after their awful first 4 regular season games): 258.4/g
So they have been better, but still, the Giants present some really difficult matchups. Envisioning Victor Cruz on any of the Pats' DBs is not a pleasant thought, but in this game they get Nicks back (he didn't play in their first matchup this year).
A key might be the Pats getting pressure on Eli. Eli is a tough SOB, make no mistake about it. He takes a pounding and is somehow able to absorb it. NE's pressure is underrated, as I outlined here (http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/889799-pressure-qb.html): Over their last 5 games (without Andre Carter, mind you), they have averaged about 4 sacks, 6 TFL, and 6 QB hits per game. That's virtually identical to what the vaunted Giants' pressure D has done over their magical 5-game run.
I expect NE to play a lot of nickel and hope that their front 6 can do the job against the Giants' running game. If they can't get pressure on Manning, he could have a field day. The one good thing about Eli, however, is that he has 2-3 balls a game that are just horrific throws. In the NFCCG he had two of them, and they were both dropped by SF. NE needs to capitalize on Eli's mistakes.
Nonetheless, the Giants do have a significant edge when they are passing against NE's defense.
EDGE: New York
Special Teams and the Little Things
The Patriots have a decided advantage in these areas (see: http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/891137-little-things-matter.html). The Pats have the edge in the kicking game, in the return game, in the coverage game, in the area of penalties, in the area of "hidden yards" and average field position. In a one game scenario, this could go the other way (just one huge punt return or one special teams mistake flips the formula 180 degrees), but even Bill Parcells (who I saw on ESPN last night) said that the Giants will have to be great in this area tomorrow just to draw even.
EDGE: New England
...con't in next post
When the Patriots have the ball:
The Patriots' running game vs. the Giants' run defense
The Patriots' running game is underrated. They can hit the Giants with different weapons: the sledgehammer (BJGE), the jitterbug (Woodhead), the steady veteran (Faulk), or the explosive rookie (Ridley). During the season, they ranked #20 in the NFL in rushing at 110.3 ypg and averaged 4.0 ypc. During the postseason, they have averaged 4.0 ypc and 121.0 ypg, facing the #22 and #2 ranked rush defenses.
The Giants' D, meanwhile, is overrated against the running game. They ranked #19 against the run during the season, allowing 121.3 ypg at a whopping 4.5 yards per carry. During the postseason, the perception is that they've been better against the run, but the reality is a little different. They've allowed 120.3 yds per game and 5.0 yds per carry. Granted, some of that has been good runs by opposing QBs, so they're doing better against traditional rushing attacks, and the Patriots won't be running Tom Brady tomorrow. QBs have run, in the postseason, for 111 yds on 16 carries (6.9 ypc), meaning that the Giants have allowed "traditional" running plays to gain 250 yds on 56 carries, which comes to 4.5 ypc. And that was against the #9, the #17, and #27 ranked rush offenses.
I expect NY to play a lot of nickel. I think NE comes out in their big set and if NY goes regular D, the Pats will find some passing lanes. If NY comes out in a nickel - or whenever NY substitutes into a nickel - the Pats will go hurry up and hammer away with their two TE against a very small lineup. When the Giants go with their "NASCAR" look of 4 DEs (Tuck, JPP, Umeniyora, and Kiwanuka), their average weight will be 267 lbs. The Pats' OL will outweigh them by about 50 pounds per man on average. I see NE running the ball a lot, if for no other reason than to try to establish a rhythm and to blunt NY's pass rush early.
EDGE: New England
The Patriots' passing game vs. the Giants' pass defense
Right off the top, I have to say that the Patriots' passing offense vs. *ANY* passing defense is an edge to New England. They simply have one of the most prolific pass offenses in history, and it's been that way since 2007. No team has found a way to really stop NE. Oh, it's happened from time to time in individual games, but nobody has the personnel or scheme to consistently shut NE's passing offense down. Even in the first Giants' game this season, the Pats had 342 yards passing. This is not to say that Brady is incapable of having a bad game or that the Giants can't get turnovers off him. Both of those are distinctly possible in a one-game scenario. But on the whole, the Patriots' pass offense against ANYBODY is an advantage for New England.
I am going to assume that Gronk is operating at 75%. He won't be fully Gronk, but he won't be useless either. I think they will have to pick their spots with him - God, please don't let them waste downs using him on special teams - but he will still be a handful for NY.
Hernandez is a player NY has no matchup for. Everyone has talked about the two TEs, and it's for real. No team yet in the NFL has found a way to stop both of them. They might slow down one of them, but not both. They give NE so much flexibility, and when NE goes no-huddle they're almost impossible to stop.
One guy that everyone seems to forget amidst all the Giant WR ballwashing is only the guy who finished the season #1 in the league in receptions: Wes Welker. In their last SB, Welker had 11 rec for 103 yds, and in their first matchup this season, he had 9 rec for 136 yds. And, just for good measure, in the 2007 regular season matchup, Welker had 11 rec for 122 yds.
So in 3 games as a Patriot vs. the Giants, Welker has done this:
11-122
11-103
9-136
AVG: 10.3 rec for 120.3 yds
I mean, whatever else someone may say about this matchup, one thing is clear: the Giants have not found a way to even come close to slowing down Wes Welker. I expect him to have a big day.
And then there is Deion Branch. He's not what he used to be. But he showed in the AFCCG that he can still get deep at times. He's a Super Bowl stud and a big-game player. If the Giants focus everywhere else, I expect Branch to have a really good game.
The key, of course, will be controlling the Giants' pass rush. The Giants have a good rush, finishing tied for 3rd in the NFL with 48 sacks. But more than just the sacks, they just get a lot of pressure on opposing QBs.
But it is overstated how much pressure the Giants have put on during the playoffs. In their three games (which included an OT period), they totaled 9 sacks, 14 tackles for loss, and 18 QB hits. That's essentially an average of 3 sacks, 5 TFL, and 6 QB hits per game. Those numbers are no different than they were during the regular season (48 sacks / 16 games = 3 sacks per game).
Meanwhile, the Pats' OL has done very well, especially during the playoffs, where they have stepped up their game against top-notch pass rushing defenses. Here's what they have allowed:
vs Den (#10 in the NFL in sacks): 0 sacks, 1 TFL, 2 QB hits
vs Bal (#3 in the NFL in sacks): 1 sack, 2 TFL, 3 QB hits
So during the playoffs, against excellent pressure defenses, the Pats have been almost perfect in pass protection. In their regular season matchup this year, the Giants had 2 sacks, 2 TFL, and 3 QB hits. I do not expect much more than that in the Super Bowl.
EDGE: New England
When the Giants have the ball
The Giants' running game vs. the Patriots' run defense
The Giants had one of the worst rushing attacks in all of football this year. They finished 32nd in the league averaging 89.2 yds per game and a measly 3.5 ypc. It has gotten better in the playoffs, however, as they've averaged 117.3 yds per game on 84 carries, rushing at a 4.2 ypc clip. That's good, solid work.
What about the Pats' run defense? They were #17 during the season, allowing 117.1 yds per game at a rate of 4.6 ypc. That rate isn't good. During the playoffs, against two of the best running teams in the league (Den was #1 and Bal was #10), they allowed 260 yards on 71 carries, for a 3.7 ypc rate. In other words, they really have clamped down on the outstanding running games of their opponents in the playoffs.
In their regular season matchup, the Giants had 29 carries for 111 yds, for a 3.8 average. That was without Bradshaw, as we all know. Bradshaw, during the playoffs, has done this:
vs Atl: 14-63, 4.5 ypc
at GB: 12-63, 5.3 ypc
at SF: 20-74, 3.7 ypc
AVG: 15.3 carries, 66.7 yds, 4.4 ypc
So he's been very effective, and the Pats sometimes have trouble with backs like him. I expect him to play pretty well on Sunday.
As far as a game plan goes, I expect NY to try to pass the ball using their 3 WRs against NE's iffy secondary. The run game for NY will be their offspeed pitch, so to speak. I don't expect NY to get much more than 100 yards on the ground, barring a freak 50+ yard run somewhere along the way.
EDGE: New England
The Giants' passing game vs. the Patriots' pass defense
Here is where the Giants will make their hay. As much as I'd like to defend NE's pass defense, it's hard to. Their pass defense is essentially equal to NY's (each held their opponents to an identical 86.1 passer rating this year), but boy they give up a TON of yards. They have been better as the season has gone along:
Passing yards per game allowed
First 4 regular season games: 369/g
Last 12 regular season games: 269/g
Playoffs: 195/g
**Last 14 (after their awful first 4 regular season games): 258.4/g
So they have been better, but still, the Giants present some really difficult matchups. Envisioning Victor Cruz on any of the Pats' DBs is not a pleasant thought, but in this game they get Nicks back (he didn't play in their first matchup this year).
A key might be the Pats getting pressure on Eli. Eli is a tough SOB, make no mistake about it. He takes a pounding and is somehow able to absorb it. NE's pressure is underrated, as I outlined here (http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/889799-pressure-qb.html): Over their last 5 games (without Andre Carter, mind you), they have averaged about 4 sacks, 6 TFL, and 6 QB hits per game. That's virtually identical to what the vaunted Giants' pressure D has done over their magical 5-game run.
I expect NE to play a lot of nickel and hope that their front 6 can do the job against the Giants' running game. If they can't get pressure on Manning, he could have a field day. The one good thing about Eli, however, is that he has 2-3 balls a game that are just horrific throws. In the NFCCG he had two of them, and they were both dropped by SF. NE needs to capitalize on Eli's mistakes.
Nonetheless, the Giants do have a significant edge when they are passing against NE's defense.
EDGE: New York
Special Teams and the Little Things
The Patriots have a decided advantage in these areas (see: http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/891137-little-things-matter.html). The Pats have the edge in the kicking game, in the return game, in the coverage game, in the area of penalties, in the area of "hidden yards" and average field position. In a one game scenario, this could go the other way (just one huge punt return or one special teams mistake flips the formula 180 degrees), but even Bill Parcells (who I saw on ESPN last night) said that the Giants will have to be great in this area tomorrow just to draw even.
EDGE: New England
...con't in next post
