Matt Williamson: Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Williams

[ausbacker]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

If the salary cap is $121 million for the 2012 NFL Season, the New England Patriots will have roughly $25.067 million to spend on free agency and the 2012 NFL draft.

Numbers in million

$121.0 + $6.667 - $102.6 = $25.067

$5.000 2012 NFL Draft Picks
$9.400 Wes Welker Franchise Tag
$1.927 Brian Hoyer (second round tender - RFA)
$1.925 Deion Branch (minimum player salary plus $1.000 million)
$0.925 Andre Carter (minimum player salary)
$1.825 Cory Redding (minimum player salary plus $1.000 million)
$0.825 Tracy White (minimum player salary)
$0.825 James Sanders (minimum player salary)
$1.700 Dan Connolly (minimum player salary plus $1.000 million)
$0.700 Matt Slater (minimum player salary)
$0.540 Kyle Love (minimum player salary - ERFA)

$25.592 aforementioned subtotal

10 x $0.465 = $4.65 (10 player replacements - one year experience each)

$25.592 - $4.650 = $20.942 subtotal

2 x $0.390 = $0.780 (52nd & 53rd players - rookies)
8 x $0.0969 = $0.775 (8 practice squad players based upon 2011 figures)
$0.000 (injured reserve margin)

$20.942 + $0.780 + $0.775 = $22.497 theoretically spent versus $25.067 available

Please note that this not take into account whether the New England Patriots will re-sign unrestricted free agent running back BenJarvus Green Ellis.

That's better, although it will be interesting to see if numbers are released to see who is closer to the fact etc.

 

[ATippett56]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

That's better, although it will be interesting to see if numbers are released to see who is closer to the fact etc.

According to the following link, the New England Patriots salary cap figure for the "top 51" is $102.6 million.

2012 “top 51″ cap numbers, as of February 28 | ProFootballTalk

 

[Sfpat]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

Living in Houston, I'm humored by all who think signing Mario would be a great move for the Pats. He's a good player, with great physical tools but his play on the field is nothing great. He will not dominate a game and usually has little impact/influence in helping his team to win. He's a one trick pony (speed rusher) who is easily pushed past the QB by a TE or OT and suckered on draws and screens. Most of his sacks are coverage sacks or failure of the OL to even block him (admittedly, I am amazed at how often blocking schemes fail to account for him). He can set the edge when he wants too but too often seems to just go through the motions. And his injury record goes back several years as it's been the excuse (not by him mind you) for his lack of production in prior years. There's a reason the Texans aren't trying too hard to keep him.

Is he Reggie White? Not even close. Bruce Smith? No way Charles Haley? Julius Peppers? Michael Strahan? Fred Dean? Charles Grant? Nope. He's a good, not great DE who would be an upgrade over Anderson and the current Carter (not the younger version), but not at the money he will command. Good guy, yes but there has to be other options available to the Pats at a better cost value. No use mortgaging the future for him.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

Pats have done it almost every year, though.

The key thing is that they don't go overboard with it.

Brady's already got back to back $18.2M cap hits waiting in 2013 and 2014. Adding much more dead cap to those would make it very difficult to extend him for a couple of more years not to mention impossible to tag him to retirement...among other things. And the TE's will be costing more than their rookie deals and Mankins and Mayo will be into backend cap hits on their deals. They call it mortgaging the future for a reason. Even when the cap does go up, it doesn't matter as much when you've already spent it.

 

[jmt57]

Another opinion on the possibility of the Pats signing Williams, this one from Mike Loyko via our friends at NEPatriotsDraft.com

Patriots Signing Mario Williams: Realistic or Pipe Dream? | NEPatriotsDraft.com - 2012 NFL Draft

While it is out of character for the New England Patriots to go out and spend big time money in free agency, there are specific examples of the team spending money on the top available pass rusher on the free agent market.

In 2003, the Patriots shelled out a long term contract and money to a 25 year old OLB from the Chicago Bears named Rosevelt Colvin. In 2007, the Patriots signed Baltimore Ravens OLB Adalius Thomas, who was widely considered the top free agent available on the market to a long term deal. Both of these circumstances are very similar.

 

[DW Toys]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

Now that the New England Patriots have placed the franchise tag on Wes Welker, where is all this supposed cap room available for Mario Williams?

The New England Patriots need to deal with the following free agents:

Bryan Hoyer (RFA) - Second Round Tender = $1.927 million
Kyle Love (ERFA) - Two years experience = $0.540 million minimum
Dan Koppen - ???
Dan Connolly
Deion Branch - ???
BenJarvus Green-Ellis
Andre Carter - ???
Matt Slater
Tracy White

How about some under the radar type free agents?

James Sanders
Cory Redding

Koppen and Branch in my opinion can be upgraded even at the right numbers. Koppen and Branch will not settle for Vet minimum anyway I would not expect.

Redding is OK but here we go again with Sanders. He sat the bench mostly in Atlanta. At this point he is special Teams only. Would rather see a Draft pick for half his projected money...in my opinion. He made $3mm here last time. I doubt Vet minimum does it with him either.

You Tender Hoyer and trade him.

The Law Firm will want a raise. We drafted two kids to upgrade him. One has been a bust and many on this forum scratched their heads on that pick anyway.

Connolly, Love and Carter and maybe Slater. You are looking at $7mm to sign them approx.

You save about $6mm in those moves. $25mm-$5mm for Rookies. Minus $7mm leaves $13mm give or take. If we sign Welker to reasonable numbers.
Now the shocker. Here is the CAP savings with these guys:

Brace, Ron DE $785,120
Barrett, Josh S $1,008,120
Cunningham, Jermaine DE $218,120
Underwood, Tiquan WR $615,000
Pryor, Myron DT $565,000
Deaderick, Brandon DE $538,045
Brown, Sergio S $538,409

There is 4.2mm The only one you might keep is Deaderick, but if you get Williams, who knows. Polite and Donald Thomas are $1.5mm CAP savings. There are four or five more who I don't even recognize over $400k per year. But they all even out. You need warm bodies.
Save $4mm here and $6mm you don't use above and now you have a start.

Now you have about $29mm.

Light has a $5mm number but wish he would stay.

These are all pending NFL:

Estimated NFL Salary Cap Limit: $120,400,000
Current Patriots Total: $103,133,695 (includes dead money)
Potential 2011 Carryover: $6,668,877
Current Estimated Cap Space: $23,935,182
DW Toys

 

[Off The Grid]

Another opinion on the possibility of the Pats signing Williams, this one from Mike Loyko via our friends at NEPatriotsDraft.com

Patriots Signing Mario Williams: Realistic or Pipe Dream? | NEPatriotsDraft.com - 2012 NFL Draft

Exactly.

That's precisely the precedent that those of us who know that this is feasible have cited.

I must confess, though, that the more I ponder it ~ and the higher the rumors of his asking price get ~ the cooler I become on making a deal. I've never been one to pay Top Dollar. You're usually paying an inflated Price. Part of the original appeal with Super Mario was predicated on the hope that his season-ending injury would curtail his asking price.

I'm sick and disgusted with the way our Defensive Line has been allowed to erode over the last few years, but emptying the coffers for one guy, while tempting in this case, ought be approached with extreme caution.

My methodology has always been to develop Depth of Talent before we need it, and there are a few very intriguing Prospects available for cheap in this Draft Class, that we could develop while others hold their places.

I've always said that a single bloated salary can sink an entire ship: It only takes one hole, after all, and the Salary Cap requires persistent vigilance: Not only in who we sign, but in how that contract affects the contracts ~ and the attitudes ~ of others: 52 other guys who we've been selling the "Team" concept to.

Considering all that, I wouldn't rule Super Mario out, but if his price hits 10 Mill ~ and speculation is that it's going to go LIGHT YEARS beyond that ~ I'm inclined to do what I usually do with High Ticket Free Agents: Pass.

 

[supafly]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

Koppen and Branch in my opinion can be upgraded even at the right numbers. Koppen and Branch will not settle for Vet minimum anyway I would not expect.

Redding is OK but here we go again with Sanders. He sat the bench mostly in Atlanta. At this point he is special Teams only. Would rather see a Draft pick for half his projected money...in my opinion. He made $3mm here last time. I doubt Vet minimum does it with him either.

You Tender Hoyer and trade him.

The Law Firm will want a raise. We drafted two kids to upgrade him. One has been a bust and many on this forum scratched their heads on that pick anyway.

Connolly, Love and Carter and maybe Slater. You are looking at $7mm to sign them approx.

You save about $6mm in those moves. $25mm-$5mm for Rookies. Minus $7mm leaves $13mm give or take. If we sign Welker to reasonable numbers.
Now the shocker. Here is the CAP savings with these guys:

Brace, Ron DE $785,120
Barrett, Josh S $1,008,120
Cunningham, Jermaine DE $218,120
Underwood, Tiquan WR $615,000
Pryor, Myron DT $565,000
Deaderick, Brandon DE $538,045
Brown, Sergio S $538,409

There is 4.2mm The only one you might keep is Deaderick, but if you get Williams, who knows. Polite and Donald Thomas are $1.5mm CAP savings. There are four or five more who I don't even recognize over $400k per year. But they all even out. You need warm bodies.
Save $4mm here and $6mm you don't use above and now you have a start.

Now you have about $29mm.

Light has a $5mm number but wish he would stay.

These are all pending NFL:

Estimated NFL Salary Cap Limit: $120,400,000
Current Patriots Total: $103,133,695 (includes dead money)
Potential 2011 Carryover: $6,668,877
Current Estimated Cap Space: $23,935,182
DW Toys

Sanders would still provide depth at a position of need, whether or not they do it remains to be seen.

Pryor has shown that he is more than capable as an interior rusher when healthy, and even better he is cheap.

I would seriously question your term of "bust" on Shane Vereen. He was hurt. When we saw him play, he looked fine. The same goes with Dowling. Injuries occur in the NFL, sometimes there's nothing you can do. I would say the percentages are low for Dowling, Vereen, and Pryor to be injured again, at least for a substantial time. They will all be Pats in 2012.

Cunningham was moved down on the depth chart when Carter came, and the team switched to a 4-3 base. He was fine in his first yr. Again, he will at least be here for camp, and at the very worst he'll be on the bubble. You can't cut a player if you don't know what he has. Especially at the cap cost that he had that was so incredibly low.

The only player who I'd agree with is Ron Brace, he may very well be gone this yr. Barrett may be gone too at over 1 million dollars.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

Sanders would still provide depth at a position of need, whether or not they do it remains to be seen.

Pryor has shown that he is more than capable as an interior rusher when healthy, and even better he is cheap.

I would seriously question your term of "bust" on Shane Vereen. He was hurt. When we saw him play, he looked fine. The same goes with Dowling. Injuries occur in the NFL, sometimes there's nothing you can do. I would say the percentages are low for Dowling, Vereen, and Pryor to be injured again, at least for a substantial time. They will all be Pats in 2012.

Cunningham was moved down on the depth chart when Carter came, and the team switched to a 4-3 base. He was fine in his first yr. Again, he will at least be here for camp, and at the very worst he'll be on the bubble. You can't cut a player if you don't know what he has. Especially at the cap cost that he had that was so incredibly low.

The only player who I'd agree with is Ron Brace, he may very well be gone this yr. Barrett may be gone too at over 1 million dollars.

I agree with you on Vereen, Im surprised evryone just writes him off, same with Dowling, neither cost much and have high upside.

 

[Wilfork#75]

Exactly.

That's precisely the precedent that those of us who know that this is feasible have cited.

I must confess, though, that the more I ponder it ~ and the higher the rumors of his asking price get ~ the cooler I become on making a deal. I've never been one to pay Top Dollar. You're usually paying an inflated Price. Part of the original appeal with Super Mario was predicated on the hope that his season-ending injury would curtail his asking price.

I'm sick and disgusted with the way our Defensive Line has been allowed to erode over the last few years, but emptying the coffers for one guy, while tempting in this case, ought be approached with extreme caution.

My methodology has always been to develop Depth of Talent before we need it, and there are a few very intriguing Prospects available for cheap in this Draft Class, that we could develop while others hold their places.

I've always said that a single bloated salary can sink an entire ship: It only takes one hole, after all, and the Salary Cap requires persistent vigilance: Not only in who we sign, but in how that contract affects the contracts ~ and the attitudes ~ of others: 52 other guys who we've been selling the "Team" concept to.

Considering all that, I wouldn't rule Super Mario out, but if his price hits 10 Mill ~ and speculation is that it's going to go LIGHT YEARS beyond that ~ I'm inclined to do what I usually do with High Ticket Free Agents: Pass.

I'm a believer that its not the top end, elite talent on big money that cause cap problems, its the overpaying mid level guys, which the Pats rarely seem to do which cause cap problems. It's the $30mil teams give to Stanford Route, or the $36mil that you give to a 31 year old Robert Mathis or the $50mil you give to any OG. I'm not usually for giving out big contracts to FA, and there is no way I would throw money at someone like Vincent Jackson or Mike Wallace. Where I would spend top dollar though is for elite players at premium positions. Mario Williams is one of the most elite players at one of the most premium positions, so I would definitely make him a big offer. I don't think its the Mario Williams contracts that you regret, its the big money at non premium positions that teams will regret (Mankins, Santonio Holmes, Mayo?)

 

[supafly]

I'm a believer that its not the top end, elite talent on big money that cause cap problems, its the overpaying mid level guys, which the Pats rarely seem to do which cause cap problems. It's the $30mil teams give to Stanford Route, or the $36mil that you give to a 31 year old Robert Mathis or the $50mil you give to any OG. I'm not usually for giving out big contracts to FA, and there is no way I would throw money at someone like Vincent Jackson or Mike Wallace. Where I would spend top dollar though is for elite players at premium positions. Mario Williams is one of the most elite players at one of the most premium positions, so I would definitely make him a big offer. I don't think its the Mario Williams contracts that you regret, its the big money at non premium positions that teams will regret (Mankins, Santonio Holmes, Mayo?)

I absolutely agree with you in this regard.

That said, I can also agree with those who feel that it's bad practice altogether to go after top-tiered FA's who will cost mega-millions too.

I would offer M.Williams a decent offer in this case. If he takes it, he takes it. If not, at least they had the balls to make an offer. He's about the only 'big money' guy who I would look it.

I would tend to disagree with your thoughts on Mayo though, as he was extended this yr for a very fair price...very fair, IMO.

 

[Off The Grid]

I agree with you on Vereen, Im surprised evryone just writes him off, same with Dowling, neither cost much and have high upside.

Speak for yourself.

As a Founding Father of the Shane Vereen Fan Club ~ PatsFans Chapter ~ I remain, as ever, INTREPID in my support of that FORCE!! :rocker:

I was pounding the table for that guy BEFORE the Draft, baby!!

 

[ATippett56]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

Koppen and Branch in my opinion can be upgraded even at the right numbers. Koppen and Branch will not settle for Vet minimum anyway I would not expect.

To upgrade Deion Branch, it will cost more not less in unrestricted free agency.

Redding is OK but here we go again with Sanders. He sat the bench mostly in Atlanta. At this point he is special Teams only. Would rather see a Draft pick for half his projected money...in my opinion. He made $3mm here last time. I doubt Vet minimum does it with him either.

You have not provided a viable upgrade to James Ihedigbo nor the free safety position with your argument.

You Tender Hoyer and trade him.

I seriously doubt Bill Belichick would trade Brian Hoyer after watching the Indianapolis Colts quarterback debacle this past season.

The Law Firm will want a raise. We drafted two kids to upgrade him. One has been a bust and many on this forum scratched their heads on that pick anyway.

You have not provided a viable upgrade to the "so-called" running back bust with your argument.

Connolly, Love and Carter and maybe Slater. You are looking at $7mm to sign them.

Matt Slater and Tracy White are core special teams players.

You save about $6mm in those moves. $25mm-$5mm for Rookies. Minus $7mm leaves $13mm give or take. If we sign Welker to reasonable numbers.

Upgrading Deion Branch in unrestricted free agency will not provide salary cap cost savings, trading Bryan Hoyer provides no proven depth at the quarterback position, a viable alternative has not been presented at the running back position to BenJarvus Green-Ellis.

Now the shocker. Here is the CAP savings with these guys:

Brace, Ron DE $785,120
Barrett, Josh S $1,008,120
Cunningham, Jermaine DE $218,120
Underwood, Tiquan WR $615,000
Pryor, Myron DT $565,000
Deaderick, Brandon DE $538,045
Brown, Sergio S $538,409

The most likely players that would get cut are Josh Barrett and Tiquan Underwood; the aforementioned cap savings would most likely go towards upgrading the wide receiver position in unrestricted free agency.

The only one you might keep is Deaderick, but if you get Williams, who knows.

If Bill Belichick migrates back to the 3-4 defense, he will keep the five defensive linemen currently under contract:

Deaderick
Pryor
Wilfork
Love (ERFA)
Brace

In addition, the New England Patriots will most likely add two defensive lineman to the 53 man roster, one in unrestricted free agency and one in the 2012 NFL Draft.

Polite and Donald Thomas are $1.5mm CAP savings.

Based on your cuts, the New England Patriots will only have three running backs under contract for the 2012 NFL Season. As for offensive lineman, the New England Patriots normally keep nine under contract.

Based on your cuts, the New England Patriots will be able to sign Mario Williams, but the remaining holes in the roster will be filled by undrafted free agent JAGS.

 

[ausbacker]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

According to the following link, the New England Patriots salary cap figure for the "top 51" is $102.6 million.

2012 “top 51″ cap numbers, as of February 28 | ProFootballTalk

It's not the Pats cap that I am concerned with, it's the player's individual salaries (assigned Patriots' value) and their cumulative affect that I will be interested to see.

All of that aside, thanks for putting forward a post with your thought out position.

 

[Wilfork#75]

I absolutely agree with you in this regard.

That said, I can also agree with those who feel that it's bad practice altogether to go after top-tiered FA's who will cost mega-millions too.

I would offer M.Williams a decent offer in this case. If he takes it, he takes it. If not, at least they had the balls to make an offer. He's about the only 'big money' guy who I would look it.

I would tend to disagree with your thoughts on Mayo though, as he was extended this yr for a very fair price...very fair, IMO.

I agree, I wouldn't hand Mario a blank check, but I would make a fairly substantial offer ($12-13mil AAV) and if he is willing to take that, great. I think he would probably receive larger offers, but I doubt any of them would offer a better chance to win.

On the Mayo contract, I'm conflicted. I love Mayo and I think he is a very good player, but it is a little higher than I would have liked. I definitely think he can live up to the contract, but I think he needs to step up his level of play. He's being paid like an elite ILB, now he needs to play like one, not just a very good one. I put a question mark on him because time will tell whether he is worth that contract or not.

 

[supafly]

I agree, I wouldn't hand Mario a blank check, but I would make a fairly substantial offer ($12-13mil AAV) and if he is willing to take that, great. I think he would probably receive larger offers, but I doubt any of them would offer a better chance to win.

On the Mayo contract, I'm conflicted. I love Mayo and I think he is a very good player, but it is a little higher than I would have liked. I definitely think he can live up to the contract, but I think he needs to step up his level of play. He's being paid like an elite ILB, now he needs to play like one, not just a very good one. I put a question mark on him because time will tell whether he is worth that contract or not.

I think if they are prepared to offer Williams a 12-13 aav pact, he will be a NEP in the 2012 season. That would likely be good enough for him to come to a proven winner like NE. Whether or not they go that high, will be the question. It's certainly a lot of money, that's for sure.

As far as Mayo goes, I agree with your questioning his play, and think that he still needs to take another step. That's a fair argument.

Considering the extension, I think it will be more than fair when you take into acct the inflation of value etc, but I certainly understand and respect where your questioning comes into play.

 

[upstater1]

Do not be surprised if the Patriots are not heavy hitters in the FA market and instead decide to redo the contracts of key players.

We have one or two more years of a low salary cap before it explodes, and when it does, our young players like Vollmer, Solder, Gronk, Hernandez, Mayo, Spikes, maybe even McCourty are going to cost a bundle. Chung too since there are so few safeties around.

It makes sense to redo contracts now and get these players cheap while the salary cap is still low.

 

[JackBauer]

On the Mayo contract, I'm conflicted. I love Mayo and I think he is a very good player, but it is a little higher than I would have liked. I definitely think he can live up to the contract, but I think he needs to step up his level of play. He's being paid like an elite ILB, now he needs to play like one, not just a very good one. I put a question mark on him because time will tell whether he is worth that contract or not.

Mayo is, at worst, a top-5 ILB and probably closer to top 2-3. Unless you have an unusually strict definition of elite, he would certainly qualify as such.

 

[DW Toys]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

To upgrade Deion Branch, it will cost more not less in unrestricted free agency.

You have not provided a viable upgrade to James Ihedigbo nor the free safety position with your argument.

I seriously doubt Bill Belichick would trade Brian Hoyer after watching the Indianapolis Colts quarterback debacle this past season.

You have not provided a viable upgrade to the "so-called" running back bust with your argument.

Matt Slater and Tracy White are core special teams players.

Upgrading Deion Branch in unrestricted free agency will not provide salary cap cost savings, trading Bryan Hoyer provides no proven depth at the quarterback position, a viable alternative has not been presented at the running back position to BenJarvus Green-Ellis.

The most likely players that would get cut are Josh Barrett and Tiquan Underwood; the aforementioned cap savings would most likely go towards upgrading the wide receiver position in unrestricted free agency.

If Bill Belichick migrates back to the 3-4 defense, he will keep the five defensive linemen currently under contract:

Deaderick
Pryor
Wilfork
Love (ERFA)
Brace

In addition, the New England Patriots will most likely add two defensive lineman to the 53 man roster, one in unrestricted free agency and one in the 2012 NFL Draft.

Based on your cuts, the New England Patriots will only have three running backs under contract for the 2012 NFL Season. As for offensive lineman, the New England Patriots normally keep nine under contract.

Based on your cuts, the New England Patriots will be able to sign Mario Williams, but the remaining holes in the roster will be filled by undrafted free agent JAGS.

James=James
There are a few safeties that could be had for less than Sanders. Take your pick C.C. Brown coming back from injury is only 29 and had a few good years,
Mike Adams 30 years old, 64 tackles in 2011 and three int's,Craig Dahl on a bad St.Louis Team, 61 tackles, one int only 26, Husain Abdullah who is only 26. He has some good stats (check him out), ETC. Look, none of these players are Ed Reed but they are perhaps younger in some cases and cheaper. More value. Not that they are far superior , but the viable upgrade it can be argued.

Rather get more serious with Mallet for the future if we can get something decent for Hoyer. Yep, I would move him for his second round tender.

I might not have been fair with Vareen, but he has not shown anything so far for such a high pick. You could say INC.

I suggested keeping Slater but can a cheaper Tarp be better than White? ST was a big part of his game at Iowa.

I think you have an affection for Branch. He can be covered by one guy. I am sure you and I together can agree on at least 3 WR who we can get for what he will want to return, right?

They just re-signed Ketanni so he is on the roster. Don't know if he sticks but you have to agree BB loves the kid. That is 4 RBs.

I agree with you on the other things you suggest. I don't know if Brace makes it.

How many times do you get a chance to get a Mario Williams. At the end, it will still be too much money for them to shell out. He would be a difference maker and they should but he will out think this as usual. His street guys and FA pick ups work out and he is great at that but why struggle if you can get Mario?
DW Toys

 

[Rob0729]

Do not be surprised if the Patriots are not heavy hitters in the FA market and instead decide to redo the contracts of key players.

We have one or two more years of a low salary cap before it explodes, and when it does, our young players like Vollmer, Solder, Gronk, Hernandez, Mayo, Spikes, maybe even McCourty are going to cost a bundle. Chung too since there are so few safeties around.

It makes sense to redo contracts now and get these players cheap while the salary cap is still low.

A couple of things:

- Solder cannot redo his contract. You cannot redo a rookie contract until after the second year according to the CBA.

- Mayo already got a new deal during last season (a 5 year extension). They are not going to give him a new deal now.

- Odds aren't good that they get a new deal done with either Gronk or Hernandez. I think Hernandez wants to get to free agency because he knows he can be a #1 TE somewhere getting top TE money. I think Gronk knows he can maximize his contract if he waits another year or two. Besides, the Pats never give a player a new deal with two years left on his deal unless his last name is Brady and his first name is Tom.

- I think the Pats will be really active in free agency, but probably not with big names. This is the biggest free agent class in forever. They will probably sign Brandon Lloyd, but he will be the biggest name.

- Of the players you listed, Vollmer and Chung are the ones most likely to get new deals.