Kirwan on Jags matchup

[PlattsFan]

The Pats of 2001 were a once-a-blue-moon happening. And the two teams people have talked about (Raiders and Rams) from that year were soft. Upsets generally happen, imo, when the underdog is a physical group and the overdog is a soft group. That's not the case in this matchup. The Jags are physical, but they won't push around the Pats.

Sure the Pats aren't the fastest at LB, but with a healthy Sey and the grind of the regular season over, they can certainly stand up to the Jags. The Jags are a good team, so they'll probably not get blasted off the field, but I don't expect it to be all that tense in the fourth quarter. These "the Jags can beat the Pats" scenarios seem like a classic case of pundits talking themselves into a game being a game ...

edit: I mean the general feeling, not Kirwan's column. Kirwan is one of the few guys who generally doesn't get caught up in the herd mentality and goes with real analysis.

 

[bradmahn]

not an excuse but Garrard had a bad day... too much butterfly in stomach I think. What Brady's completion in the Jets game is most impressive?

The deep one down the sideline to Moss for 46 yards in rain and swirling winds.

 

[Tunescribe]

... the situation seems strangely similar when we faced a high profile raiders team in the div playoff game ...

You know what? With good weather I think we would have lost that game.

 

[Absurdly Metro]

There's 2 huge differences between this Patriots team and that Rams team
1. MM was incapable of making half time adjustments. BB knows what changes need to be made mid game.
2. The Rams players took winning for granted. Warner came out before the game stating how his goal was to win 5 superbowls; basically they all assummed they had that one in the bag and I bet it took away from their mental focus. The Patriots aren't going to take anything for granted and I bet they worked their asses of this week. They will play this game like their lives counted on it.

I agree. Great points.

 

[Patriotic Fervor]

The comparison should be more like our 2001 team vs. the Rams in the SB that year. THAT is the kind of challenge facing the Jags. Truth is we won that day but you could line those same teams up ten times and maybe we win twice. Maybe. And that is with BB, TB, and AV. But it happened on that day. Just becauser Jax has some parallels to our '01 team doesn't mean it will all come together for them on Saturday to slay Goliath like it did for us that day in New Orleans. In fact, for every giant killer like the '01 Pats there are a dozen "wanna be's" who get crushed in the big game (see '85, '96 Pats; '77, '86, '87, '89 Broncos; '90, Raiders, '91, '92, '93 Bills; '94 Chargers, '95 Steelers, etc.) against the Juggernaut. IMO that is the much more likely outcome.

The 2001 analogy isn't really a good one.

The 2 teams faced each other earlier that season, with the Rams winning a true slug fest (not score-wise, but a true, physical slug fest).

Mike Martz took notice of this when, after that game, he told his assembled team, "Congratulations! You've just beaten the team that will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl!"

He knew full well what he was facing going into the game (Super Bowl XXXVI), but still underestimated them/overestimated his own boys.

I simply don't agree with your statement, "Truth is we won that day but you could line those same teams up ten times and maybe we win twice." That's just nonsense. The '01 Patriots, although certainly not the offensive equal of their Ram counterparts, were a team marked by a violent defense, which has become a hallmark of the BB-Patriots era.

Not only that, we got our first glimpse of this coaching nonpareil, when, to start that Super Bowl Bowl game, he put in a defense that dared the Rams to pass, rather than utilize Marshall Faulk, and Mike Martz took the bait! That's when I had the first inkling they were going to win.

Otherwise, yes - juggernauts, as you call them, are heavily favored for a reason, and usually meet public expectations.

The Patriots under Belichick and Brady, however, seem to have broken all the rules about everything. Which is what (1)makes them so appealing, and (2)makes them so successful.

Gawd, I love this team!

 

[Patriotic Fervor]

And we had a bye. People tend to forget we were the 2 seed in 2001.

Not only that, but the team's regular season bye came on the last week of the season, largely because when the schedule was made, they thought the team would stink again.

Of course, following that embarrassment, the league no longer does such things!

So the team had a 2-week bye that year. That was maybe the first sign that the Gods had repositioned themselves and their opinions viz a viz the Patriots.

 

[C'est La Vie]

Garrard is still an unproven entity. With the emphasis on the running game, it makes it much easier to successfully complete a high percentage of passes (when you're only throwing 20 times/game).

The true test will be when the Jags running game isn't working, can Garrard carry the load and lead his team to victory. We may find out this Saturday night!

This post has little to do with my response to Seymour93, in reference to how they supposedly "choked" in game 2 at the dome.

 

[Seymour93]

Taylor and Jones-Drew ran for a combined 150 yards. Garrard threw 2 td's, 250+ yards, and was 24/29. They outscored the Colts 18-7 in the second half. How did they choke?

Reggie Williams unnecessary roughness penalty killed one of your 4th quarter drives when you were inside the Colts' 10, eventually having to settle for a FG. On your next possession you were inside the Colts red zone, but Garrard threw a pick. That's 11 points dropped in the 4th qtr alone.

 

[mosi]

Not only that, but the team's regular season bye came on the last week of the season, largely because when the schedule was made, they thought the team would stink again.

Of course, following that embarrassment, the league no longer does such things!

So the team had a 2-week bye that year. That was maybe the first sign that the Gods had repositioned themselves and their opinions viz a viz the Patriots.

Actually, it was the second to last week of the season. The last game of the season was against Carolina (after the bye week). Winning that game gave us the first round bye.

 

[C'est La Vie]

Reggie Williams unnecessary roughness penalty killed one of your 4th quarter drives when you were inside the Colts' 10, eventually having to settle for a FG. On your next possession you were inside the Colts red zone, but Garrard threw a pick. That's 11 points dropped in the 4th qtr alone.

FWIW, I am not a Jags fan.

In the third quarter of that game, the Colts had a 3rd and 2 from the Jax 11. Manning threw an interception. Can that "cancel out" Garrards?? I give credit to Jax for making the play, and it was certainly a disappointing throw by PM. Third and short, with points lined up. Take care of the ball!! The pass was actually executed from about the 20 yard line, and Clark was in the back of the end zone, so the ball did travel. Can't get overworked about the play call obviously, but you hate to see that. Game was 21-14 Indy at the time.

On the personal foul, Jax was going to have a 3rd and one. I assume they would have converted, but who knows. Bonehead for sure, but a choke?

On Garrard's pick. They were down 28-17. They knew they needed two scores, and it was midway through the 4th qtr. Got to give credit to the defense. They did intercept the opposition 22 times this season.

Indy promptly goes 3 and out (choke by the Jags D ), and jax scores and hits the 2 pointer. Indy gets ball back, but ices the game with 2:47 to go. Gain 2 first downs to run out the clock.

I don't see this as a Jax choke. They played well, Garrard and the RBs played well, it was a hard fought game. No choking in that contest.

 

[ATippett56]

I can agree with you Pats fans that Garrard is still young and not like Brady. But this team is not like your 2001 Patriots... who was your running threat? Antwaan Smith or someone like that? we are different and if you are not worrying about your AARP line backers, fine with me...

We are not worried about a quarterback who will only start his second playoff game ever. His first start was hardly encouraging.

 

[Patriotic Fervor]

Actually, it was the second to last week of the season. The last game of the season was against Carolina (after the bye week). Winning that game gave us the first round bye.

Ahhh, yes, I remember that now!

I stand corrected.

Thank you.

 

[Seymour93]

FWIW, I am not a Jags fan.

Oops. :bricks:

On the personal foul, Jax was going to have a 3rd and one. I assume they would have converted, but who knows. Bonehead for sure, but a choke?

But as you pointed out, Jones-Drew and Taylor were having a big day. Safe bet is that they would've gotten that yard on 3rd or 4th down.

On Garrard's pick. They were down 28-17. They knew they needed two scores, and it was midway through the 4th qtr. Got to give credit to the defense. They did intercept the opposition 22 times this season.

Indy promptly goes 3 and out (choke by the Jags D ), and jax scores and hits the 2 pointer. Indy gets ball back, but ices the game with 2:47 to go. Gain 2 first downs to run out the clock.

I don't see this as a Jax choke. They played well, Garrard and the RBs played well, it was a hard fought game. No choking in that contest.

Scobee missed a FG in the 1st qtr and just before that drive, Garrard fumbled at his own 6 yard line, setting up an easy Colts TD. Indy committed two penalties the entire game, while Jacksonville had eight flags called against them yet despite all of the miscues, the Jags had chances to win the game in the 4th, but they failed to take them.

 

[C'est La Vie]

Oops. :bricks:



But as you pointed out, Jones-Drew and Taylor were having a big day. Safe bet is that they would've gotten that yard on 3rd or 4th down.



Scobee missed a FG in the 1st qtr and just before that drive, Garrard fumbled at his own 6 yard line, setting up an easy Colts TD. Indy committed two penalties the entire game, while Jacksonville had eight flags called against them yet despite all of the miscues, the Jags had chances to win the game in the 4th, but they failed to take them.

We must just disagree on the meaning of the word choke. With respect, the Colts were 2nd in the league in takeaways this season (IIRC), and they have proven to be a fairly physical bunch. Forcing TO's, and winning that battle is a big reason why they stay in the win column. Give some credit where due. Honestly, what 10 point or less ball game can you NOT point to and find a handful of plays that could easily have altered the score? Give Scobee the FG, changes the complexion, or maybe it doesn't, and it's tied at 28. Who says Colts don't continue to gain first downs on the final drive, and kick the game winner? Too many what ifs. They played well, but didn't do enough to win, but IMO, they didn't choke.

 

[ATippett56]

They played well, but didn't do enough to win, but IMO, they didn't choke.

Which only proves the Jaguars are not ready to take the next step.

 

[C'est La Vie]

Which only proves the Jaguars are not ready to take the next step.

Again, not a Jax fan. Just because you lose, doesn't mean you aren't ready to take the next step. After all, you can't win them all

IMO, Going to Pitt, smashing them, losing the lead, and then pulling it out is a BIG "next step". And regardless, you still have to play the game. Ready or not, they will show up, and the two teams will play, and one will win.

 

[Seymour93]

We must just disagree on the meaning of the word choke. With respect, the Colts were 2nd in the league in takeaways this season (IIRC), and they have proven to be a fairly physical bunch. Forcing TO's, and winning that battle is a big reason why they stay in the win column. Give some credit where due. Honestly, what 10 point or less ball game can you NOT point to and find a handful of plays that could easily have altered the score? Give Scobee the FG, changes the complexion, or maybe it doesn't, and it's tied at 28. Who says Colts don't continue to gain first downs on the final drive, and kick the game winner? Too many what ifs. They played well, but didn't do enough to win, but IMO, they didn't choke.

Fair enough. I say that Jacksonville should've at least scored one TD when they were twice in the Colts' redzone in the early-to-mid part of the 4th qtr. That's the difference between us winning in Indy and the Jags losing there. We produced TD's both times our offense was in the redzone in the 4th.

 

[ATippett56]

Again, not a Jax fan. Just because you lose, doesn't mean you aren't ready to take the next step. After all, you can't win them all

IMO, Going to Pitt, smashing them, losing the lead, and then pulling it out is a BIG "next step". And regardless, you still have to play the game. Ready or not, they will show up, and the two teams will play, and one will win.

Sorry but if Roethlisberger does not throw those interceptions, the Steelers win in a blowout. The Patriots will employ the New Orleans Saints game plan earlier this season and hang at least 40 on the Jaguars defense, especially without Stroud and Peterson. The pressure is off Brady and Moss with regard to the regular season statistical records and the Patriots will be fresh for the playoffs.

 

[C'est La Vie]

Sorry but if Roethlisberger does not throw those interceptions, the Steelers win in a blowout. The Patriots will employ the New Orleans Saints game plan earlier this season and hang at least 40 on the Jaguars defense, especially without Stroud and Peterson. The pressure is off Brady and Moss with regard to the regular season statistical records and the Patriots will be fresh for the playoffs.

You lose credibility here. But yeah, in the end, you'll probably hang 40 on them. Hope to see you in two weeks.

 

[ATippett56]

You lose credibility here. But yeah, in the end, you'll probably hang 40 on them. Hope to see you in two weeks.

Colts or Chargers fan?