It's supposed to be high 40s and sunny. A nice day for football, unfortunately. Because I want it cold, cold, cold. Oh well.
Here are the keys to beating Denver, as I see it.
When the Patriots have the ball:
Denver has the #3 rush defense and the #1 pass defense in the NFL. They hold opposing QBs to just a 78.8 rating, and lead the NFL in sacks with 52. It's a very difficult combination to beat. Plus, they're at home.
Road: 18.5 points, 319 yds
Home: 18.5 points, 247 yds
So this will be a stiff test for the Patriots. But let's look at what New England was able to do in the first matchup. Without Edelman and Amendola, the Patriots were able to put up 24 points and 301 total yards. Brady threw for 280 yards, 3 td, and 0 interceptions. The main targets were Gronk (6 rec, 88 yds, 1 td), Chandler (5 rec, 58 yds, 1 td), and Bolden (4 rec, 84 yds, 1 td). The Broncos linebackers and safeties had a difficult time covering these three receiving targets, as Brady connected on 15 of 25 passes to these three. With Edelman and Amendola back and healthy, this forces Denver into some interesting decisions. If they go zone, Brady can slice them apart on short passes. If they go man, how do they decide to match up?
Harris is injured and is limited. Any receiver he covers thus has a significant advantage there. Taleb can be beaten on quick change of direction routes - exactly the kind that Edelman and Amendola specialize in. Leaving linebackers to match up with Gronk or Chandler or White seems like a bad idea, as it didn't work last time for Denver even when the Pats were without their best two WR.
I think the Patriots will throw, throw, throw, just like they did against KC. They will spread out Denver with 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE), using Amendola, Edelman, and LaFell along with Gronk and James White a lot. Make Denver cover 5 legitimate receiving options. Or they use Bolden or Jackson to spell White so they can run it if they want. I don't see any more than about 15-18 rush attempts, unless they have a big lead and are just trying to run out the clock.
Let Edelman and Amendola use their quickness. Try to isolate Gronk on a LB or smaller safety. Swing Bolden and White out of the backfield. Denver doesn't have the horses (no pun intended) to counter this many options. They had a hard enough time containing Pittsburgh's passing game, and that was with a banged up Roethlisberger and without Antonio Brown. Quick passes should help keep Denver's pass rush off Brady. I see TB throwing 45+ times at about 63% for more than 300 yards. The Patriots, unless they turn the ball over (always a possibility), should be able to put up 24-30 points on Denver this week.
When the Broncos have the ball:
Peyton Manning still is accurate on short passes, but anything over 10 yards and it's a struggle for him. Here are his splits by distance the pass is thrown:
Behind LOS: 36-42 (85.7%), 153 yds (3.6 ypa), 0 td, 0 int, 81.8 rating
LOS-10 yds: 107-161 (66.5%), 859 yds (5.3 ypa), 4 td, 8 int, 67.3 rating
11-20 yds: 40-80 (50.0%), 730 yds (9.1 ypa), 2 td, 6 int, 58.9 rating
21-30 yds: 8-27 (29.6%), 327 yds (12.1 ypa), 2 td, 2 int, 71.4 rating
31+ yds: 2-12 (16.7%), 111 yds (9.3 ypa), 1 td, 1 int, 67.0 rating
So passes up to 10 yds downfield: 143-203 (70.5%), 1012 yds (5.0 ypa), 4 td, 8 int
But beyond 10 yds downfield: 50-119 (42.0%), 1168 yds (9.8 ypa), 5 td, 9 int
So the Pats would be wise to play press coverage and make Peyton throw over the press coverage.
Moreover, when throwing to either sideline, Peyton is just 74-127 (58.3%), compared to the middle portion of the field where he is 119-195 (61.0%). So I'd try to take away short and middle and make Manning throw deeper and outside. He has excellent receivers, but his arm strength and accuracy are such that those throws are very difficult for him now.
The other piece of this is going to be stopping the run. Unlike Alex Smith, Peyton cannot run at all and so there is no need to keep someone in to watch for the QB scramble. The defensive line must contain the rush and run blitz heavily to keep Anderson and Hillman in check. Anderson ran left with much more effectiveness than he did running right.
Left sideline: 12-95 (7.9)
Left side: 50-254 (5.1)
Middle: 43-205 (4.8)
Right side: 40-156 (3.9)
Right sideline: 7-10 (1.4)
So from the middle over to the left, Anderson was dynamic. Running right he was pedestrian.
Ironically, Hillman is just the opposite.
Left sideline: 28-151 (5.4)
Left side: 57-206 (3.6)
Middle: 39-145 (3.7)
Right side: 63-280 (4.4)
Right sideline: 20-81 (4.1)
So middle-left, Hillman averaged 4.0 yards per carry, but to the right he averaged 4.4 yards per carry. Keep him inside and to the left and you'll be ok. Just don't let him get wide.
Commit to defending the run and take away short and middle passes as best you can, and make them throw down the field and to the outside.
Here are the keys to beating Denver, as I see it.
When the Patriots have the ball:
Denver has the #3 rush defense and the #1 pass defense in the NFL. They hold opposing QBs to just a 78.8 rating, and lead the NFL in sacks with 52. It's a very difficult combination to beat. Plus, they're at home.
Road: 18.5 points, 319 yds
Home: 18.5 points, 247 yds
So this will be a stiff test for the Patriots. But let's look at what New England was able to do in the first matchup. Without Edelman and Amendola, the Patriots were able to put up 24 points and 301 total yards. Brady threw for 280 yards, 3 td, and 0 interceptions. The main targets were Gronk (6 rec, 88 yds, 1 td), Chandler (5 rec, 58 yds, 1 td), and Bolden (4 rec, 84 yds, 1 td). The Broncos linebackers and safeties had a difficult time covering these three receiving targets, as Brady connected on 15 of 25 passes to these three. With Edelman and Amendola back and healthy, this forces Denver into some interesting decisions. If they go zone, Brady can slice them apart on short passes. If they go man, how do they decide to match up?
Harris is injured and is limited. Any receiver he covers thus has a significant advantage there. Taleb can be beaten on quick change of direction routes - exactly the kind that Edelman and Amendola specialize in. Leaving linebackers to match up with Gronk or Chandler or White seems like a bad idea, as it didn't work last time for Denver even when the Pats were without their best two WR.
I think the Patriots will throw, throw, throw, just like they did against KC. They will spread out Denver with 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE), using Amendola, Edelman, and LaFell along with Gronk and James White a lot. Make Denver cover 5 legitimate receiving options. Or they use Bolden or Jackson to spell White so they can run it if they want. I don't see any more than about 15-18 rush attempts, unless they have a big lead and are just trying to run out the clock.
Let Edelman and Amendola use their quickness. Try to isolate Gronk on a LB or smaller safety. Swing Bolden and White out of the backfield. Denver doesn't have the horses (no pun intended) to counter this many options. They had a hard enough time containing Pittsburgh's passing game, and that was with a banged up Roethlisberger and without Antonio Brown. Quick passes should help keep Denver's pass rush off Brady. I see TB throwing 45+ times at about 63% for more than 300 yards. The Patriots, unless they turn the ball over (always a possibility), should be able to put up 24-30 points on Denver this week.
When the Broncos have the ball:
Peyton Manning still is accurate on short passes, but anything over 10 yards and it's a struggle for him. Here are his splits by distance the pass is thrown:
Behind LOS: 36-42 (85.7%), 153 yds (3.6 ypa), 0 td, 0 int, 81.8 rating
LOS-10 yds: 107-161 (66.5%), 859 yds (5.3 ypa), 4 td, 8 int, 67.3 rating
11-20 yds: 40-80 (50.0%), 730 yds (9.1 ypa), 2 td, 6 int, 58.9 rating
21-30 yds: 8-27 (29.6%), 327 yds (12.1 ypa), 2 td, 2 int, 71.4 rating
31+ yds: 2-12 (16.7%), 111 yds (9.3 ypa), 1 td, 1 int, 67.0 rating
So passes up to 10 yds downfield: 143-203 (70.5%), 1012 yds (5.0 ypa), 4 td, 8 int
But beyond 10 yds downfield: 50-119 (42.0%), 1168 yds (9.8 ypa), 5 td, 9 int
So the Pats would be wise to play press coverage and make Peyton throw over the press coverage.
Moreover, when throwing to either sideline, Peyton is just 74-127 (58.3%), compared to the middle portion of the field where he is 119-195 (61.0%). So I'd try to take away short and middle and make Manning throw deeper and outside. He has excellent receivers, but his arm strength and accuracy are such that those throws are very difficult for him now.
The other piece of this is going to be stopping the run. Unlike Alex Smith, Peyton cannot run at all and so there is no need to keep someone in to watch for the QB scramble. The defensive line must contain the rush and run blitz heavily to keep Anderson and Hillman in check. Anderson ran left with much more effectiveness than he did running right.
Left sideline: 12-95 (7.9)
Left side: 50-254 (5.1)
Middle: 43-205 (4.8)
Right side: 40-156 (3.9)
Right sideline: 7-10 (1.4)
So from the middle over to the left, Anderson was dynamic. Running right he was pedestrian.
Ironically, Hillman is just the opposite.
Left sideline: 28-151 (5.4)
Left side: 57-206 (3.6)
Middle: 39-145 (3.7)
Right side: 63-280 (4.4)
Right sideline: 20-81 (4.1)
So middle-left, Hillman averaged 4.0 yards per carry, but to the right he averaged 4.4 yards per carry. Keep him inside and to the left and you'll be ok. Just don't let him get wide.
Commit to defending the run and take away short and middle passes as best you can, and make them throw down the field and to the outside.
