Amazing effort MayoClinic. A couple of points.
You've assembled a very expensive roster...without even addressing a Brady extension. Do you have a total cap number for '10 with this roster. Tying up $19 mill on 3 WRs (Welker, Moss, Bryant) seems unBB like...and how can you double-plus Bryants salary when compared to Welker and his output.
I posted a version of what follows on another thread, but included it here to address your question.
Excluding the 8 who should ideally get long term extensions (including Brady, plus Wilfork, Mankins, Bodden, Watson, Gostkowski, Banta-Cain and possibly Kevin Faulk), and assuming that Adalius Thomas is cut or traded in the offseason, according to Miguel's cap page the 2011 cap hit for the core players who are signed long term works out to something like the following:
0. Cost of trading Adalius Thomas - $5,007,280
1. WR Randy Moss - $11,257,280
2. DE Ty Warren - $5,490,612
3. C Dan Koppen - $5,007,280
4. OT Matt Light - $4,507,280
5. WR Wes Welker - $4,232,280
6. OT Nick Kaczur - $3,582,280
7. CB Shawn Springs - $3,257,280
8. S James Sanders - $2,987,280
9. ILB Jerod Mayo - $2,932,280
10. RB Fred Taylor - $2,732,280
11. TE Chris Baker - $2,307,280
12. RB Lawrence Maroney - $2,009,780
13. DE Mike Wright - $1,737,280
14. S Brandon Meriweather - $1,737,280
15. RB Sammie Morris - $1,382,280
16. S Patrick Chung - $987,280
17. DT Ron Brace - $962,280
18. CB Darius Butler - $944,780
19. S Brandon McGowan - $912,280
20. OLB Rob Ninkovich - $773,946
21. ILB Eric Alexander - $769,280
22. RB Sam Aiken - $767,280
23. OG/C Dan Connolly - $765,613
24. OT Mark LeVoir - $740,613
25. OT Sebastian Vollmer - $707,280
26. CB Terrance Wheatley - $699,780
27. OLB Shawn Crable - $677,405
28. WR Brandon Tate - $591,030
29. WR Isaiah Stanbeck - $552,280
30. CB Jonathan Wilhite - $578,655
31. ST Matt Slater - $521,030
32. OG Rich Ohnrberger - $515,030
33. RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis - $477,280
34. OG George Bussey - $440,230
35. DT Myron Pryor - $422,030
36. LS Jake Ingram - $419,780
37. WR Julian Edelman - $414,455
38. QB Brian Hoyer - $406,466
39. CB/ST Kyle Arrington - $402,280
40. ILB Thomas Williams - $402,280
41. OG Ryan Wendell - $402,280
42. OLB Bruce Davis - $402,280
43. QB Jeff Rowe - $402,280
44. RB Eric Kettani - $327,280
45. DT Daryl Richard - $327,280
46. DT Adrian Grady - $327,280
47. TE Rob Myers - $327,280
48. WR Darnell Jenkins - $327,280
49. TE Robbie Agnone - $327,280
50. RB Shun White - $327,280
51. WR Tyree Barnes - $327,280
So the total cap money invested in those 51 players, plus trading or cutting Adalius Thomas, totals $75,780,835. Plus roughly another $8M could be saved by cutting or trading some veterans depending on how the team views their cost/performance analysis. And I suspect more could be saved by restructuring some contracts (Randy Moss, for example).
In addition, Miguel's page doesn't list ILB Tyrone McKenzie, who is under contract through 2012. I'm not sure what his cap hit is. He signed a 4 year contract worth $3.124M including a $631,000 signing bonus.
The 2009 NFL salary cap was $128M. The 2008 salary cap was $116M. The 2007 salary cap was $109M. So I think that it is fair to say that if 2010 were a capped year, the cap would be at least $140M, which means that we would have roughly $65M to spend. I also think it's fair to assume that a 2011 capped year would have a cap of somewhere upwards of $150M.
Brady's current 2010 cap hit is $10,227,280. The cost of extending him should probably not significantly increase that cap hit. Subtract that and you still have around $55-60M to spend on re-signings, rookies, and external FAs.
In addition to the 7 players mentioned (minus Brady), the following players would need to be addressed:
- ERFA ILB Gary Guyton
- ERFA S/ST Bret Lockett
- RFA OLB Pierre Woods
- RFA RB Chris Taylor
- RFA S/ST Bret Lockett
- UFA OLB Derrick Burgess
- UFA DE Jarvis Green
- UFA OG Stephen Neal
- UFA P Chris Hanson
Junior Seau has retired. Stephen Neal may retire. Gary Guyton and Bret Locket are ERFAs and are not free to negotiate with any other team. They can be brought back fairly cheaply. Most of the others are cost/vale decisions, and should take a back seat to the major signings.
Subtracting roughly $6-7M for the rookie pool (our rookie pool was $6M in 2009, with 12 picks), we should have around $45-50M+ to re-sign our own FAs and sign external FAs, possibly more if we cut or trade a few people orrestructure a few contracts. And that would include roughly 60 players under contract (the 51 listed plus Brady and McKenzie, plus roughly 7 rookies going into camp).
Of the key Pats FAs to sign, I could see something like the following:
- Wilfork - franchised or extended, roughly an $8M cap hit
- Bodden - should be able to re-sign him for around a $6M hit
- Mankins - under $3M if tendered as an RFA; around a $6M hit if extended
- Gostkowski - around $2.5M if tendered as an RFA; around $3-4M hit if extended
- Watson - around a $4M hit if extended
- Faulk - should be able to re-sign him fairly cheaply; lets say $2M hit
- TBC - should be able to re-sign him for $2-3M hit
Those 7 would total about $31M, leaving close to $20M to play with. I think that puts us in position to make a run at a couple of external FAs. I can't see Dansby getting more than James Harrison's $51M 6 year deal from Pittsburgh with $20M in signing bonuses. Expensive, and perhaps the Pats won't go that high, but not because they don't have the money. We should be able to add Dansby, a 3rd WR like Antonio Bryant, and possibly a couple of low-mid priced guys (or bringing back some guys like Derrick Burgess or Jarvis Green) with that kind of room. As for Bryant's contract vs. Welker's, that's a significant issue, but we'd be bringing Bryant in as a #2 WR with Welker out, and I suspect the team could work around it.
I'm not saying it's going to happen. I'm just saying that I think that the money will be there if the team wants to be aggressive in FA.
As far as moving up for Spiller...if BB feels that he has to pay this draft price for a quality back, I would rather throw this pick at a sure thing, Jonathan Stewart of Carolina....my binky ...and I've been told that hell will freeze over first.
I've said before that I'd be happy to trade a #1 for Stewart, if Carolina is interested. If you can talk them into trading Stewart and their 3rd round pick for 42, 47 and 118 I'd be willing to listen. I doubt they'll do it, though.