Is A Holdout By Brady Coming?

[PatsFanSince74]

Whenever a player holds out under contract, most fans side with management. If Brady held out for the first three games and the Pats got creamed, most fans would be pissed at Brady. A lot of them would turn on the guy. Look at what happened to Asante Samuel (who wasn't even under contract) and Deion Branch. Personally, I would be peissed at Brady if he held out while under contract, but I wouldn't turn on him.

As for Brady's brand, I do have a marketing background and it looks pretty obvious. Besides, Brady isn't great on TV as we saw on his SNL appearance or his Snickers commerical (the commerical was funny, but his acting left a lot to be desired) or Visa commericial (where the o-line outshined him). Aat least he isn't as good as Manning. As much as I hate Manning, I can recognize he is a natural TV pitchman and can sell almost anything (in fact, he might be the best athlete pitchman in a long while). Brady comes off a bit stiff on TV. That's why Brady uses his model looks to sell more stylish products while Manning uses his personality which comes out more naturally on TV.

I love Brady and all that, but TV commericals are not his strong point and that is why he isn't on them like Manning. Manning is great at it and that is why major companies are lining up to get him for commericials. I'd rather have Brady on the football field, but I would rather have Manning pitch my product on TV.

You might be right about how Brady pursues endorsements, despite the consequences of much smaller paydays. My own view has always been that Brady has a long term plan to re-brand himself after football and that he has foregone more obvious vehicles for that reason, but you might be right.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

From what's being posted about in this thread:



Also, the "original" article by Silver was based upon a source/sources close to Brady. So, unless your claim is that both Silver and Clayton are just making things up, there's more than just speculation to the idea that things aren't all moonlight and canoes here.

Let's recap. Silver claimed there was a disconnect between the player and team based on information he claimed was from sources close to Brady, who could be anything from frustrated agent speak to a concerned relative to the security guys at UCLA. Since then Brady attended roughly half of the voluntary off season conditioning workouts in Foxboro - beginning in March during the second week of the program, the day after Bob Kraft predicted he would be in attendance as early as the following day - as well as all the voluntary and mandatory OTA's. Bill rode a bike 50 miles with the cougar is tow to support his charity event in June, a period during which he spent three solid weeks here. When he is not here he is working out often with Welker in LA. According to one poster here Brady and Kraft dined out together one evening while he was here. Kraft stated his committment to retaining the player long term while citing the complexity of getting a deal done under an expiring CBA that would satisfy both sides, but reiterated it would get done because both parties wanted it to. Bill Polian echoed basically the same issues were holding up any Manning deal which he said would have to wait at least until there was more clarity on what rules a new CBA might encompass, maybe in October or later in his estimation. We have since learned courtesy of Miguel and some cap specific writers and finally even the local media how the terms of the expiring CBA preclude realistically doing an extension of the magnitude the QB's and a few other elite players entails. Even as some remarkably uninformed mediots persist in opining that they must get a deal done before camp (although even they and Clayton don't think Brady will stage a holdout). These are often also the people who persist in continuing to promote the myth that guaranteed money contract spin by agents representing the top rookies du jour is actually guaranteed, although that too has been repeatedly debunked. Meanwhile there are a handful of elite players publicly contemplating holding out due to lack of extensions, although they all apparently lack the profile to warrant intense interest and therefore commentary outside of their own fanbase. Not to mention of course Brady himself has stated he hasn't really given the lack of contract much thought because there really isn't much that can be done about it beyond the sides continuing to talk privately as they always do here, so he personally is focused on getting ready for the season and back on the field with his teamates.

Classic holdout scenario...not.

BTW Clayton's earlier musings on the subject were also obviously little more than that. He doesn't have to make up the fact that there hasn't been any progress, because there hasn't largely because there can't be at the present time. And he sites no sources on his position that Brady will require a deal at this juncture that closely mirrors whatever Manning gets because that's a pretty commonsensical assumption given they are finally up at the same time and in the same position. Though even he states it will likely still likely come in around a million a year lower and place him among the top two or three at the position. Duh...

Our Tom is a bit of an odd duck celebrity QB. He's never chased the almighty dollar, on or off the field. Early on Don Yee said their strategy was to avoid over exposure and selectively limit the demands on his time so he could maintain his focus on his career and continue to spend quality time that was already limited with those he loved (at that point the list included his parents, sisters, girlfriend and close friends - today it's primarily his wife and sons). He could be selling technology or promoting credit cards or eating cookies with his pal the Donald in every home in America if he was into that. He could be writing tomes about himself or his seasons, but like his HC he tends to resist self promotion. As fate would have it, he ended up married to a woman who an even bigger celebrity icon than Peyton Manning, and that seems to be about as much noteriety and accommodation to celebrity noteriety as he chooses to handle.

The last thing he's going to do at this juncture is become the highest profile holdout in NFL history...while alienating his fanbase, his ownership, his HC, and risking damaging his legacy as the unselfish, driven to win 199th pick in the 2000 draft around whom a dynasty was born.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

This only goes to show how if you repeat an UNFOUNDED rumor long enough and loud enough, it will soon start to be reported as fact somewhere, and THEN it takes a life of its own and we get a 7 page thread, which only ADDS to the rumor's credibility.

Quite frankly I'm disappointed with the fact that so many people who I thought were smarter than this would, give this any credit at all. I though we were better, more discerning fans than this.

I know at Jets insider, many are convinced that Tom Brady is gay and wouldn't have amounted to anything withouts BB's videos. You know, at one time I used to think they were delusional, but since its been posted many times on their board, then I guess it MUST be true. Brady is gay, over rated, and will hold out. Hey I read it on the internet.

I once got in an argument with a Jets fan on that board and he ended up admitting that they call TB "gay" because they are so frustrated at how badly he's beaten them over the years. So, don't take everything at its face value.

As for the legitimacy of this story, I think there is more to it than you are hoping there is.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I once got in an argument with a Jets fan on that board and he ended up admitting that they call TB "gay" because they are so frustrated at how badly he's beaten them over the years. So, don't take everything at its face value.

As for the legitimacy of this story, I think there is more to it than you are hoping there is.

Sadly, I think a lot of folks are hoping there is more to it than there is. I've never been able to figure out why beyond some individual, internal need to not be perceived as easily suckered into simply accepting the obvious. They would rather be dead wrong about negativity (which they often state to be the case) than choose to accentuate the positive and be called a naive homer...

 

[RhodyPatriot]

Enough of this nonsense from these mediots
Brady is coming to camp. Brady will get a nice new contract.
Everything else you read on this is nonsense by mediots trying very hard to "create" a story.

 

[BlueThunder]

Enough of this nonsense from these mediots
Brady is coming to camp. Brady will get a nice new contract.
Everything else you read on this is nonsense by mediots trying very hard to "create" a story.

EXACTLY :rocker:

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Sadly, I think a lot of folks are hoping there is more to it than there is. I've never been able to figure out why beyond some individual, internal need to not be perceived as easily suckered into simply accepting the obvious. They would rather be dead wrong about negativity (which they often state to be the case) than choose to accentuate the positive and be called a naive homer...

Yeah, I try to preface everything I say on this with something like, "none of us knows what's really going on so we're all just guessing."

the Brady negotiation is kind of like the ultimate Rorschach test. Some look at Brady and see the dedicated guy who is all about the team and would never hold out; others look at the same guy and see someone who is tired of being Mr. Nice Guy and would rather work on the west coast. i don't think most people posting on this important topic are naive or obstinate. sure there are a few who just want to stir the pot, but i think most are posting out of concern or fear.

For myself, I just honestly don't know. I've always subscribed to the old adage "where there's smoke there's fire." The problem is in this case the smoke we see might only be what is coming out of media fog machines.

 

[Buchanty]

As for the legitimacy of this story, I think there is more to it than you are hoping there is.

Well it's not illegitimate as I do believe there will be a certain amount of positioning and postulating going on as is normal in the BIG contract. I think everyone tries to get the bigger raise and larger salary especially if you have paid forward as Brady has done. I could also imagine that the Patriots may be trying to see how much flex there is in this contract to help with Mankins (but that is purely speculative).

However it is over hyped and one only has to look at Peyton's similar situation to realize that the media sees no blood in Indy. I still think the Patriots have a target on their back from the 3 SBs, spygate and GFY 2007 Season. More NFL fans want to see the Patriots fail than succeed and part of this is because the dynasty isn't dead until BB and TB are no longer active.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Well it's not illegitimate as I do believe there will be a certain amount of positioning and postulating going on as is normal in the BIG contract. I think everyone tries to get the bigger raise and larger salary especially if you have paid forward as Brady has done. I could also imagine that the Patriots may be trying to see how much flex there is in this contract to help with Mankins (but that is purely speculative).

However it is over hyped and one only has to look at Peyton's similar situation to realize that the media sees no blood in Indy. I still think the Patriots have a target on their back from the 3 SBs, spygate and GFY 2007 Season. More NFL fans want to see the Patriots fail than succeed and part of this is because the dynasty isn't dead until BB and TB are no longer active.

On your first paragraph, yeah, none of us know what's really going on and so we're all just guessing, but your's are reasonable efforts at speculation.

On your second paragraph, the national media and other teams' managements will never forgive the Patriots for doing what no one was supposed to do in the Cap and Fee Agency era, dominate over an extended period (five AFCCG's, four SB's and three rings in seven years). I often think of all the GM's who used to tell their Owners and of all the Owners who used to tell their fans and local media that in the Cap and Free Agency Era it was too much for them to expect that their team would be able to do more than win the Division every few years and maybe win a couple of Playoff games and then maybe, every 10--15 years, have a shot at winning a Super Bowl. The Pats made them all look bad. Of course, Belichick played right into their hands by continuing to tape from the sidelines after the practice was banned.

In the case of the Holdout storyline, I worry because Holding Out would not be an unreasonable thing for Brady to do, even though all we have in support of its occurrence is rumor wrapped inside speculation wrapped inside a guess.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

On your first paragraph, yeah, none of us know what's really going on and so we're all just guessing, but your's are reasonable efforts at speculation.

On your second paragraph, the national media and other teams' managements will never forgive the Patriots for doing what no one was supposed to do in the Cap and Fee Agency era, dominate over an extended period (five AFCCG's, four SB's and three rings in seven years). I often think of all the GM's who used to tell their Owners and of all the Owners who used to tell their fans and local media that in the Cap and Free Agency Era it was too much for them to expect that their team would be able to do more than win the Division every few years and maybe win a couple of Playoff games and then maybe, every 10--15 years, have a shot at winning a Super Bowl. The Pats made them all look bad. Of course, Belichick played right into their hands by continuing to tape from the sidelines after the practice was banned.

In the case of the Holdout storyline, I worry because Holding Out would not be an unreasonable thing for Brady to do, even though all we have in support of its occurrence is rumor wrapped inside speculation wrapped inside a guess.

Actually it would be a pretty unreasonable thing for him to do given the circumstances of which he is well aware. I'm sure they have knocked around several alternate scenarios, none of which works all that well for either of them because they would involve either incremental deals which is how he in a manner of speaking got screwed the last time...or hamstringing the organization cash flow wise for perhaps 2-3 seasons (by paying him cash over cap up front signing bonus money to the tune of $40M+ they don't have laying around).

He is playing through what was always intended to be an incremental deal, hence the minimal backend salaries to facilitate cap flexibility along the way. He didn't fall as far behind Manning as he is today until 2008 when they matched up against Peyton's backloaded salaries. Unfortunately that year coincided with the early opt out of the CBA as voted on by I believe 30 of 32 owners (with no votes against but two abstensions if I recall correctly).

When their deals were signed Manning was scheduled to be an 2004 UFA although he was exclusive franchise tagged for $18M until Irsay could scrape up the balance of his signing bonus monies together by selling personal assets. Whereas Tom was entering the 4th year of a 5 year $30M extension signed in 2002. One got a market deal (that at the time lowered his cap hit by about $10M) and the other got a deal discounted because he wasn't yet in line for a market deal. Manning got $35 million up front and $45M ($15M AAV) over the first 3. Brady got $26.5M up front (in split signing and guaranteed option bonus) and $37M ($12.5AAV) over the first 3. They were at $56M vs. 45M after the first four. The gap has widened exponentially over the last two seasons to $82M vs. $60M because of the backloading in Mannings deal and the inability of NE to get a long term extension for Brady on the books before the owners opted out of the CBA. In hindsight which is always 20/20, maybe they should have extended Tom before he finished year 3 (2007). But that would have set pretty radical precedent unless again dramatically discounted...and possibly even precluded them retaining Moss because of cash outlay.

Brady summed the whole situation up pretty well in March in the words of his pragmatic HC... It is what it is. It's not that they don't want to get a deal done, it's just that it's difficult to find a way to do a deal under the circumstances that works fairly for both sides.

Holding out at this juncture wouldn't change that... Pretty much every player looking for an extension is in the same predicament. Unless they want to settle for the kind of guarantee it yourself deal Ferguson took...

 

[ctpatsfan77]

As for Brady's brand, I do have a marketing background and it looks pretty obvious. Besides, Brady isn't great on TV as we saw on his SNL appearance or his Snickers commerical (the commerical was funny, but his acting left a lot to be desired) or Visa commericial (where the o-line outshined him). Aat least he isn't as good as Manning. As much as I hate Manning, I can recognize he is a natural TV pitchman and can sell almost anything (in fact, he might be the best athlete pitchman in a long while). Brady comes off a bit stiff on TV. That's why Brady uses his model looks to sell more stylish products while Manning uses his personality which comes out more naturally on TV.

Given how little work Brady does relative to Manning, it's rather likely that Brady's actually able to command more per ad than Manning. [Manning does earn more in endorsements than any other NFL player; Brady is second.]

And as far as the Visa commercial goes, I believe that Brady said he would do those commercials only if they built them around the O-line.

 

[BradyManny]

Whenever a player holds out under contract, most fans side with management. If Brady held out for the first three games and the Pats got creamed, most fans would be pissed at Brady. A lot of them would turn on the guy. Look at what happened to Asante Samuel (who wasn't even under contract) and Deion Branch. Personally, I would be peissed at Brady if he held out while under contract, but I wouldn't turn on him.

As for Brady's brand, I do have a marketing background and it looks pretty obvious. Besides, Brady isn't great on TV as we saw on his SNL appearance or his Snickers commerical (the commerical was funny, but his acting left a lot to be desired) or Visa commericial (where the o-line outshined him). Aat least he isn't as good as Manning. As much as I hate Manning, I can recognize he is a natural TV pitchman and can sell almost anything (in fact, he might be the best athlete pitchman in a long while). Brady comes off a bit stiff on TV. That's why Brady uses his model looks to sell more stylish products while Manning uses his personality which comes out more naturally on TV.

Brady does more print work. Which frankly, print probably pays a lot better than most people think, and is certainly classier, no doubt. That fits Brady's personality.

Manning deserves some credit for coming up with a certain character/caricature of himself for TV in which he comes off as a bit of a lovable idiot. Either that, or Manning is dumb enough he doesn't realize he's poking fun at himself and his goober-nature in these ads. Actually, it's probably that.

As for Brady holding out - I would be shocked and disappointed if he did this. I highly doubt he will, it goes against everything he has stood for over his career. That said, if he did - he'd have decent reason. He's been underpaid most of his career and he's in line for one more big contract. After 2008, the guy has to realize the fragility of an NFL career. If his career were to end today, he'd probably go down as one of the most underpaid players in football history.

 

[Patspsycho]

Five things you don't have to worry about

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Brady expected in town this weekend

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Brady expected in town this weekend

Finally, a 'possible' fact in this 400th time purely speculative conjectural thread where folks project their inner secret hopes and fears, subconscious as they may be, onto the forum.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Actually it would be a pretty unreasonable thing for him to do given the circumstances of which he is well aware. I'm sure they have knocked around several alternate scenarios, none of which works all that well for either of them because they would involve either incremental deals which is how he in a manner of speaking got screwed the last time...or hamstringing the organization cash flow wise for perhaps 2-3 seasons (by paying him cash over cap up front signing bonus money to the tune of $40M+ they don't have laying around).

...
Brady summed the whole situation up pretty well in March in the words of his pragmatic HC... It is what it is. It's not that they don't want to get a deal done, it's just that it's difficult to find a way to do a deal under the circumstances that works fairly for both sides.

Holding out at this juncture wouldn't change that... Pretty much every player looking for an extension is in the same predicament. Unless they want to settle for the kind of guarantee it yourself deal Ferguson took...

The internal logic of your arguments is compelling and well stated. Compound that with the fact that none of us knows what's "really" going on and, if logic wins the day, you are right.

I'm not as sanguine as you that this is all about the logic, so I'm just going to wait and see how it evolves (my version of "it is what it is," I guess).

My experience of high stakes negotiations is that, while "money" is what is "on the table," it's the other "stuff" that is "in the room" that can be almost as important. I just have no idea how Tom Brady's experience of the injury, the surgeries, the infections and his (brilliant) recuperation and recovery will play as he thinks about going to Camp without a deal and guarantees. It's the kind of "stuff" that can push things outside the "logic" zone; couple that with the persistence of these rumors and stories (as unfounded as they could end up being) and I'm just going to wait and see and hope that you are right.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

The internal logic of your arguments is compelling and well stated. Compound that with the fact that none of us knows what's "really" going on and, if logic wins the day, you are right.

I'm not as sanguine as you that this is all about the logic, so I'm just going to wait and see how it evolves (my version of "it is what it is," I guess).

My experience of high stakes negotiations is that, while "money" is what is "on the table," it's the other "stuff" that is "in the room" that can be almost as important. I just have no idea how Tom Brady's experience of the injury, the surgeries, the infections and his (brilliant) recuperation and recovery will play as he thinks about going to Camp without a deal and guarantees. It's the kind of "stuff" that can push things outside the "logic" zone; couple that with the persistence of these rumors and stories (as unfounded as they could end up being) and I'm just going to wait and see and hope that you are right.

Okey Dokey. We will await the Inside Track reports that the moving truck has arrived in the Back Bay or Tom has been sighted walking Lua and carrying Vida while Gi pushes the stroller along the banks of the Charles...

FWIW he told us last season that what his injury and the time away from his teamates did was underscore for him just how important playing football still is to him.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Okey Dokey. We will await the Inside Track reports that the moving truck has arrived in the Back Bay or Tom has been sighted walking Lua and carrying Vida while Gi pushes the stroller along the banks of the Charles...

FWIW he told us last season that what his injury and the time away from his teamates did was underscore for him just how important playing football still is to him.

Fair enough. I guess we're all just trying to sort out something that doesn't lend itself to sorting out.

 

[signbabybrady]

Let's recap. Silver claimed there was a disconnect between the player and team based on information he claimed was from sources close to Brady, who could be anything from frustrated agent speak to a concerned relative to the security guys at UCLA. Since then Brady attended roughly half of the voluntary off season conditioning workouts in Foxboro - beginning in March during the second week of the program, the day after Bob Kraft predicted he would be in attendance as early as the following day - as well as all the voluntary and mandatory OTA's. Bill rode a bike 50 miles with the cougar is tow to support his charity event in June, a period during which he spent three solid weeks here. When he is not here he is working out often with Welker in LA. According to one poster here Brady and Kraft dined out together one evening while he was here. Kraft stated his committment to retaining the player long term while citing the complexity of getting a deal done under an expiring CBA that would satisfy both sides, but reiterated it would get done because both parties wanted it to. Bill Polian echoed basically the same issues were holding up any Manning deal which he said would have to wait at least until there was more clarity on what rules a new CBA might encompass, maybe in October or later in his estimation. We have since learned courtesy of Miguel and some cap specific writers and finally even the local media how the terms of the expiring CBA preclude realistically doing an extension of the magnitude the QB's and a few other elite players entails. Even as some remarkably uninformed mediots persist in opining that they must get a deal done before camp (although even they and Clayton don't think Brady will stage a holdout). These are often also the people who persist in continuing to promote the myth that guaranteed money contract spin by agents representing the top rookies du jour is actually guaranteed, although that too has been repeatedly debunked. Meanwhile there are a handful of elite players publicly contemplating holding out due to lack of extensions, although they all apparently lack the profile to warrant intense interest and therefore commentary outside of their own fanbase. Not to mention of course Brady himself has stated he hasn't really given the lack of contract much thought because there really isn't much that can be done about it beyond the sides continuing to talk privately as they always do here, so he personally is focused on getting ready for the season and back on the field with his teamates.

Classic holdout scenario...not.

BTW Clayton's earlier musings on the subject were also obviously little more than that. He doesn't have to make up the fact that there hasn't been any progress, because there hasn't largely because there can't be at the present time. And he sites no sources on his position that Brady will require a deal at this juncture that closely mirrors whatever Manning gets because that's a pretty commonsensical assumption given they are finally up at the same time and in the same position. Though even he states it will likely still likely come in around a million a year lower and place him among the top two or three at the position. Duh...

Our Tom is a bit of an odd duck celebrity QB. He's never chased the almighty dollar, on or off the field. Early on Don Yee said their strategy was to avoid over exposure and selectively limit the demands on his time so he could maintain his focus on his career and continue to spend quality time that was already limited with those he loved (at that point the list included his parents, sisters, girlfriend and close friends - today it's primarily his wife and sons). He could be selling technology or promoting credit cards or eating cookies with his pal the Donald in every home in America if he was into that. He could be writing tomes about himself or his seasons, but like his HC he tends to resist self promotion. As fate would have it, he ended up married to a woman who an even bigger celebrity icon than Peyton Manning, and that seems to be about as much noteriety and accommodation to celebrity noteriety as he chooses to handle.

The last thing he's going to do at this juncture is become the highest profile holdout in NFL history...while alienating his fanbase, his ownership, his HC, and risking damaging his legacy as the unselfish, driven to win 199th pick in the 2000 draft around whom a dynasty was born.

Thanks MO my entire office thinks I am crazy now because I stood up and applauded after I read this. The sheer amount of insanity surounding that Silver Story and ones to follow were almost as bad as the spygate crap because at least there we did illegally tape the Jets (even if the story was prepetuated by the Walsh fallacy there was truth to the start of it all).

 

[patfanken]

also, the "original" article by Silver was based upon a source/sources close to Brady. So, unless your claim is that both Silver and Clayton are just making things up, there's more than just speculation to the idea that things aren't all moonlight and canoes here.

Really????? Please point out exactly WHERE in Silver's story he claims to have a source. No DI this is a perfect example of the media speculating on a speculation. It has been SPECULATED that Silver has a source close to Brady. Its been SPECULATED that its one of his sisters. Its ALSO been SPECULATED that this source dried up when Silver when all moral majority in a column about him fathering a child out of wedlock.

In fact IRRC, Silver pretty much stated in his own column that this was all SPECULATION on his part.

NO DI, YOUR claim that Silver has a source close to Brady is JUST SPECULATION.

Don't you think we have SPECULATED enough. TC reports that Brady is already back in Boston in preparation for camp. Boston is NOT the place he would go if he is planing to hold out.

I think you will have to go somewhere else to create your rumor, DI. This one is closed