Initial Thoughts – The Denver Week edition.

[BelichickFan]

just saying, THompkins and Dobson have NOT been ruled out of the game. They very well both could be at practice tomorrow. Not that I think they will have a HUGE impact

There was a tweet yesterday saying that Zolak said on the radio that Dobson was close last week - did anyone hear this ? I am doubting it was said as I haven't heard any other mention of it.

As for the game, the Broncos pass defense has been bad this year without Miller (it was better with him) and that was with Harris. I know our receivers are far from optimal but Amendola and Edelman aren't chopped liver either. With them, our running game and Vereen we should move the ball with small ball.

On defense even though Manning gets rid of the ball too fast to take sacks, we need to get some good pressure and hits on him. We had lots of pressure on Luck last week that he made exceptional plays on that Manning has neither the arms nor the legs to make. With the Broncos playing small ball too (but with better receivers) I expect a fairly aggressive defensive plan both in coverage and on the rush.

 

[goheels22002]

Good work as usual by the OP, but the pessimism seems misplaced after three straight blowout wins that featured a tenacious defense, a power running game, and the kind of production in the passing game that keeps the opposing teams honest.

The thing that keeps getting lost in the assessment of the Patriots is just how good they are in the trenches.

With Solder back from his concussion problems, and Cannon more suited to run blocking than pass blocking, the offense is in excellent shape to take on base run defenses and run blitzes. When they need to pass, Brady is the best at getting the ball out fast to his receivers, and is excellent in play action. Both help the offensive line to either hold their blocks for a brief time, or allowing them to run block to sell the fake.

On defense, I cannot say enough about how the interior guys have developed since the Wilfork-Mayo-Kelly injuries almost three months ago. Vellano, Chris Jones and Siliga are a capable three-man rotation who play to the whistle. What looked like an utter disaster when the big vets went down, is now a tough, competent inside group. It helps so much to have Chandler Jones on one side and Collins and Ninkovich being so versatile at the line or dropping into coverage.

The defensive line is greatly assisted by a strong group of defensive backs who cause coverage hurries and sacks by forcing the QB to work through progressions. Somebody made a big deal about Collins's interception being a "Tedy Bruschi interception" in the analysis because he was able to fall way back in coverage from being in an up linebacker position.

That kind of versatility is huge when facing Manning this week. The Patriots have done well against Manning because they disguise what they are doing until after he's flapped his wings and yelled Omaha and gone through his gyrations. Collins and Ninkovich bring a tremendous amount of ability to messing with The Forehead in this upcoming game.

If the lines have good games, and there's no reason to anticipate a dropoff given the matchups, the Patriots will be fine.

 

[QB12]

I agree with Ken that the Patriots D will be the unit of strength for the Patriots. They will have to lead the team to victory, and I think they can do it by taking D Thomas and Decker away. If you fluster Peyton, he gets anxious and greedy and eventually, he'll throw one into double coverage.

On offense, I'm much less optimistic about Brady getting time enough in the pocket to throw, even with no Von Miller. The DT replacement was crushing that pocket against the Chagrers, even against Pro Bowler Hardwick. They have a pass rush up the middle, and Mincey and Phillips are still very dangerous on the outside. I think this aided them greatly against the Chargers.

Bottom line: the Patriots D can clamp down on the Chargers offense, AND the run game for the Patriots must simply out-tough the Chargers D and cram it down their throats.

On the first part, the Patriots D has about a 50% chance of clamping down and only allowing 21-24 IMO, but on the second part, the offense is probably only at 25-30% chance of being able to run it on Denver. Patriots chances of winning this game are about 33%.

Get your opponent straight.

 

[shmessy]

This is because Peyton Manning can't throw downfield well anymore.

But the Broncos have the perfect team for a guy with an accurate pop-gun arm. The Thomases, Welker, and Decker are all great after the catch, and the Broncos use quick slants, picks, and screen plays to get their players into space the same way the Patriots always have.

That's exactly what I was saying.

However, with Talib and Dennard now at full strength and Collins hitting his stride, the Patriots RIGHT NOW have the physical pressence and talent to knock those guys off their appointed train tracks and screw up Manning's timing.

This is SB 36 redux. Even better - - it's against a QB with lesser arm strength than Kurt.

 

[Fencer]

Saying the Pats need a big ST play to win is a lot like saying the 1-TD betting line makes sense.

I just hope our CBs stay healthy. They have a a track record of going to the sideline during big games.

 

[RIpats88]

For everyone saying we wont be able to run against Denvers run D(which statistically is rated pretty well) we did against the Ravens who have a pretty solid run D/personnel.

I think it comes down to the O-line. give alot of credit to Blount, bot those guys on the O-line LOVE to get out there block/hit people. I think we can do the same against Denver if we could against Ngata and Suggs

 

[QB12]

For everyone saying we wont be able to run against Denvers run D(which statistically is rated pretty well) we did against the Ravens who have a pretty solid run D/personnel.

I think it comes down to the O-line. give alot of credit to Blount, bot those guys on the O-line LOVE to get out there block/hit people. I think we can do the same against Denver if we could against Ngata and Suggs

Good point.

 

[kennyb]

When he starts shouting "Omaha Omaha", is it legal for the Pats to shout their own defensive shifts. Can they scream random stuff or is that illegal?

I know simulating a snap count is illegal, but shouting city names wouldn't be that.

 

[patfanken]

Man, PatFanKen...no homo. I lOVE looking for your posts every week. Even told my wife about them. Love your intelligence, insight and writing skills. Do me a favor...NEVER STOP! That's all I have to add. I am a lurker and do not attempt to offer insight, but you sir make it worth my click every week.

Thanks again man. :rocker:

Thank you, I appreciate the sentiment more than you know. I just got back from my mechanic who just informed me that the repairs needed to fix my car, exceed its value. So any positive feedback is like a breath of fresh air.

 

[patfanken]

Always a good read and I felt like I needed a smoke by the end of it (well, if I didn't hate smoking, but you get the idea).

Back to football:
Does Blount have any ability to catch the ball coming out of the backfield. I know he's had a couple, but the way he has been running lately, he might be a very effective decoy/receiving target for play action.

That's a good take. When the deal happened I looked up his receptions while he was with Tampa, and IIRC there weren't many. It would make a lot of sense to try and get Blount the ball in space on the 2nd level. He'd be a hard man to get down in that case.

For example, faking a run to him going through the line, and then faking a screen left, then coming back to Blount in the right flat. That would be tough to cover with the screen action in the opposite direction off run action. It would be easy for the RB to get lost in the confusion.

But like I said, Blount didn't get too many chances to catch the ball in Tampa, and I don't even know if he's had a chance here. If so, certainly not many of them.

 

[patfanken]

Going into this game I basically feel like SD06 or Denver 05. We are playing on the road and the other team just has flat out more weapons.

Well on average this worked out fine for the pats. Even the game game was tighter than the score, so I hope for the best.

Manning will definitely spent half the game carving our defense up, but if we stop him in the other half, and manage enough production on our own, anything is possible.

We managed to exceed my expectations and everything from now on is bonus.

You're right. This DOES feel like the 2006 SD game. Lousy offensive weapons against a team who had many. I remember hoping it would be a competitive game. I never really expected a win. Initially I was thinking 2001 was the better comparison, but its really hard to compare Kordell Stewart to Peyton Manning.

 

[dales804]

That's a good take. When the deal happened I looked up his receptions while he was with Tampa, and IIRC there weren't many. It would make a lot of sense to try and get Blount the ball in space on the 2nd level. He'd be a hard man to get down in that case.

For example, faking a run to him going through the line, and then faking a screen left, then coming back to Blount in the right flat. That would be tough to cover with the screen action in the opposite direction off run action. It would be easy for the RB to get lost in the confusion.

But like I said, Blount didn't get too many chances to catch the ball in Tampa, and I don't even know if he's had a chance here. If so, certainly not many of them.

Blount was targeted five times in the passing game this year with just two catches. The most receptions he's had in a year during his career is 15.

 

[patfanken]

1-2) 9-10) Pats fans are the least likely fans in the NFL to be in fear of facing Peyton Manning.

That's why most of my biggest worries are on the offensive side of the ball. Unless one of the rookies can get to 100% by Sunday, the Pats are down to just 2 main receiving option, 3 if you include Vareen. None of them are what anyone would consider "individual threats". Even the depleted Denver secondary is capable of containing and limiting any passing game that has only 3 threats. Who is the deep threat? That not only makes it easier for Denver to defend the pass, because all the routes are in a more confined area, but it brings everyone closer to the LOS for the run game.

That's why we need to at least threaten those areas with passes to the TEs or going deep a few times, even if its only 9 routes to Matthew Slater.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

That's a good take. When the deal happened I looked up his receptions while he was with Tampa, and IIRC there weren't many. It would make a lot of sense to try and get Blount the ball in space on the 2nd level. He'd be a hard man to get down in that case.

For example, faking a run to him going through the line, and then faking a screen left, then coming back to Blount in the right flat. That would be tough to cover with the screen action in the opposite direction off run action. It would be easy for the RB to get lost in the confusion.

But like I said, Blount didn't get too many chances to catch the ball in Tampa, and I don't even know if he's had a chance here. If so, certainly not many of them.

Blount was targeted five times in the passing game this year with just two catches. The most receptions he's had in a year during his career is 15.

Looks like Dale answered our question. Unless he's wide wide open it seems a pass to him would surprise everyone and if he was really any good, he'd have more.

Perhaps we can try your scenario with Devlin going left and Vereen going right for the fake screen. the offfensive line would have to hold for the play to develop and a receiver and/or TE would have to clear the zone on Devlin's side. Still, it's the kind of trick play that McD might like and couple makethe defense overthink things down the road.

naturally this assumes they are attacking/stacking the box and not dropping 8 into coverage.

 

[patfanken]

I can't believe I'm going to defend the Fivehead, but the truth is the truth and fair is fair:

He did NOT initiate a comparison between the Patriots travails and the Broncos. Let's not confuse what he said with what Chadidha spewed.

In his questions, Sal Pal went on about all the problems the Broncos have had to overcome and manning obliged and went on about it also. Then he asked about the Patriots and there the Fivehead actually looked a little embarrassed (evidently anticipated the wave of indignation from Patsfans.com ) and raised his eyebrows and said something to the effect of "Well, hey pardner, them there Patriots have had a lot to overcome there too, ya know!" And basically said it's down to two teams that have had to overcome alot of adversity. I have no problem with that.

Peyton: Broncos Persevere - ESPN Video - ESPN

There is a side to me that your points would make some sense......BUT not this week. Fairness? F##K fairness. This isn't the week to be fair. No one is being fair to the Pats. Last week,Florio neglected to even nominate Bellichick for HC of the year. Today he didn't think the job that was done in creating and maintaining the Pats was worthy to even nominate Casserio or BB for exec of the year.

I'm OK with not picking them for the award, but not saying they are even in the top 10, is the kind of hater bias you'd usually find only at JI or from a Steelers fan. So, maybe sometime in June, I'll be able to calmly reflect on exactly the context of what was said, Schmess, BUT this isn't the week to be "fair".

 

[ATippett56]

While I am being wildly sarcastic here, the fact remains that the Bronco offense just as wildly talented and balanced and they will be going against a defense that is likely to start 4 rookies.

Defense that will start four rookies? Exaggerate much?

DE - Ninkovich, Jones (Chandler)
DT - Siliga, Jones (Chris)
LB - Collins, Fletcher, Hightower
S - Gregory, McCourty
CB - Dennard, Talib

NB - Arrington

Try two rookies.

 

[patfanken]

Defense that will start four rookies? Exaggerate much?

DE - Ninkovich, Jones (Chandler)
DT - Siliga, Jones (Chris)
LB - Collins, Fletcher, Hightower
S - Gregory, McCourty
CB - Dennard, Talib

NB - Arrington

Try two rookies.

That's nit picking Tip. Who's to say Velano might get the start, and Ryan is likely to get as many snaps this week as either Fletcher or Hightower, especially if the Pats go nickel for most of the game like they did in November.

Besides I should be forgiven for making the mistake that Chris Jones is not a rookie, even though he didn't play last season and was cut by 2 teams. And what happens if either Dobson or Thompkins make it back for the game. The point is we made it to the final four starting a significant number of guys that are VERY young and/or a lot teams didn't want. So EXCUUUUUUUUSSSSE ME!.

 

[shmessy]

There is a side to me that your points would make some sense......BUT not this week. Fairness? F##K fairness. This isn't the week to be fair. No one is being fair to the Pats. Last week,Florio neglected to even nominate Bellichick for HC of the year. Today he didn't think the job that was done in creating and maintaining the Pats was worthy to even nominate Casserio or BB for exec of the year.

I'm OK with not picking them for the award, but not saying they are even in the top 10, is the kind of hater bias you'd usually find only at JI or from a Steelers fan. So, maybe sometime in June, I'll be able to calmly reflect on exactly the context of what was said, Schmess, BUT this isn't the week to be "fair".

You're a better man and a better football mind than Florio, Ken. That should be obvious.

 

[runandgun]

Just some random thoughts and reactions to some of the stuff I've been reading and hearing.

1.I take personal offense to Peyton Manning comparing what their team has had to overcome this season, and what the Pats have had to overcome, AND trying to create the impression that they are the SAME. Bull *****. I have never been a rabid Peyton hater in the past. I admired his accomplishments and talents, even if I wanted him to lose every game they played against us.

However recently I can't stand listening to him. That disingenuous, patronizing, self aggrandizing, self serving (and I don't give a damned if that was redundant) rat bastard, has turned me into a complete hater. What an F'ing phony.

Did Peyton say the injuries are the same, or are you making this up?????

When did he say the Bronco's have endured more injuries??? I believe I heard him say the Bronco's have overcome a lot of adversity, but so have the Patriots, so it doesn't really matter.

This season the Bronco's have experienced: the head coach had heart surgery and missed a couple of weeks towards the end of the season, and still is being monitored. I don't remember the last time a coach had heart surgery during the season (Kubiak just fainted, but didn't have surgery).

Ryan Clady, top 5 Left Tackle in the league missed the whole season.
Von Miller, one of the best/maybe the best OLB in the league is done for the season.
Kevin Vickerson, starting DT out for the season.
Derrick Wolfe, starting DE out for the season
Rahim Moore, starting Safety, out for the season.
Chris Harris, Starting #2 Corner Back, out for the season.
JD Walton, Starting Center out for season
Dan Koppen, Back up Center,out for season

You guys have had some tough injuries as well, but you're telling me these injuries are not even in the same ball park as what the Pat's have had????

 

[ATippett56]

That's nit picking Tip. Who's to say Velano might get the start, and Ryan is likely to get as many snaps this week as either Fletcher or Hightower, especially if the Pats go nickel for most of the game like they did in November.

Who is Velano?

Not showing enough respect for the New England Patriots players to even spell their names correctly.

Besides I should be forgiven for making the mistake that Chris Jones is not a rookie, even though he didn't play last season and was cut by 2 teams.

Chris Jones is a rookie. Get your facts straight.

And what happens if either Dobson or Thompkins make it back for the game. The point is we made it to the final four starting a significant number of guys that are VERY young and/or a lot teams didn't want. So EXCUUUUUUUUSSSSE ME!.

I was talking about the defense:

Defense that will start four rookies? Exaggerate much?