1) Don't forget the Giants will be in warm weather too. It goes both ways. They put up 35 against us in those same windy and cold conditions. Sure, our offense is better in ideal conditions, but considering Eli picked us apart in the cold, I don't think you can use the weather argument. Our defense is much better in the cold. In December (when it's cold), the Patriots have given up only 24, 13, 10, 7, 20 and 12 points (I left out the 35 against the Giants). I think the ideal conditions will benefit our offense, but I don't think it is the difference between a 38-35 game and a blowout.
2) The offensive line played a very good game the first time out. I personally don't see a huge drop-off from Kaczur to O'Callaghan other than the line chemistry. The Giants only mustered 1 sack. They did have a decent amount of hurries, but it wasn't enough to stop Brady from going 32/42, 356 yards 2 TDs and no interceptions. Again, it's not that I don't think the Patriots might benefit from their fully healthy line, but given the prior performance, I again don't see it as being the difference between a 38-35 game and a 40 point blowout.
3) I am a huge Belichick fan but I recently saw his win-loss in the second meeting of the season and it's not as impressive as I would have thought. But yes, definite edge to the Pats here.
4) Look at the core of the Patriots offense this year. Moss, Stallworth, Welker, Maroney all have 0 rings. Logan Mankins doesn't have a ring. Watson has 1 ring and he was on IR all year, so he has no actual experience. The defense is experienced, I'll give you that. Weren't the 01 Rams basically the same team from 99 that won the super bowl? Experience didn't do much there. Not saying it isn't a factor, but I think it is a bigger factor in a tight game rather than creating a blowout.
5) Personally, I think Maroney's emergence began against the Jets in the rain. Over the past 5 games, he's gone for 104, 156, 46, 122 and 122. The 46 was, of course, against the Giants in week 17. So far this postseason, the Giants have given up 69 and 28 yards, but did get run all over by Marion Barber. And when Barber gets 18+ carries, he is as dangerous as any back in the league. The real weakness of the Giants is their secondary. If we have learned anything from the Patriots this season, it's that they show no mercy against the weakness of their opposition. They threw for more than 350 yards the first time around. I highly doubt Maroney will be featured the way he has been these past few games, where throwing conditions weren't ideal. Their attitude will be (like usual), "if we can throw it and score a lot of points, why not throw it?"
I dont think its accurate to use a prior game as a starting point, and expect the results to be similar.
But, using that standard, there are a few things that need to be recognized.
We were up 38-28, and the Giants scored a meaningless TD.
The Giants scored on a KO return. (Yes they earned it, but when you are predicting what will happen, that is something not likely to happen again)
Manning led a 1 minute drive at the end of the half. I would venture to say that if you put him in that position vs the Pats D 20 times he may do that 3 times. (And it was heavily aided by stupid penalties)
Those 3 factors all by themselves were probably the difference between a blowout and what appeared to be a close game.
After we scored 22 consecutive points to go ahead 38-28, if even one of those less than likely TDs had not been scored, we are up 17, if neither were we are up 24.
Now, all of those things did happen, but if you are going to argue with my logic then you cannot argue what could have happened differently for the Giants to have won.
The bottom line is that the Giants were incapable of stopping the Pats. There is no debating that, and the conditions will be better.
The Giants offensively were capable of:
-A score set up by a blown coverage on the first play
-a 2 minute drive
-A very good drive to start the second half
(The last TD is irrelevant because it was against a prevent and irrelevant to regualr o vs regular d)
That it, out of an entire game. That is nowhere near unstoppable.
If the Giant offense has a great day it can be 'effective' against the Pats, certainly not dominant. If they get special teams plays, etc, they could possibly duplicate their 28 points, and maybe even add another garbage time TD.
The Giant defense proved totally incapable of stopping the Patriot offense.
The only question in this game as to whether it will be a blowout of not is the Pats D, which I say would play better than it did in that game 90% of the time.
