If the Red Sox trade Manny...

[PonyExpress]

So how do you explain Ryan Howard? or Albert Pujols? or Travis Hafner? or Manny Ramirez? Or any other hitter who doesn't have Manny behind him and puts up fantastic numbers?

Nobody said great hitters can't put up great numbers without great line-up protection; only that their numbers would be even better with that protection. Seems pretty simple.

 

[Foley]

Nobody said great hitters can't put up great numbers without great line-up protection; only that their numbers would be even better with that protection. Seems pretty simple.

I agree with your point, I just don't think that the difference in his production will be really that significant. What kind of numbers would you expect Ortiz to have if Manny is not behind him?

Like someone already pointed out, not only did he have no adverse effects in September without Manny, his numbers were actually better.

 

[PonyExpress]

I think the main loss in production will be "game winning hits" in the late innings. I see Ortiz getting pitched around more frequently next season, depriving him of those opportunities. I don't really take last September's numbers seriously. Many teams were already out of it and playing out the string. September production can be deceiving, for rookies and for players on teams out of the playoff picture. I also think the mental burden on players asked to perform like the Sox are depending on Big Papi can break a player down as the season goes on. Plus, the team is vulnerable to an Ortiz injury. If Big Papi hurts his shoulder again, and misses time, the line-up is a joke. By keeping a player of Manny's caliber you may be able to survive at .500 a DL trip by Ortiz.

 

[Foley]

That is a significant concern, but its not as though that didn't happen this year too. Ortiz was still pitched around this past year by a lot of teams in those same situations. Teams would rather face anyone in that situation over Ortiz, be it Manny Ramirez or Gabe Kapler. Until they manage to hit Ortiz behind Ortiz hes going to be pitched around.

And whos to say Drew or Pena wont be good protection? Drew had a .263BA and 1.060OPS in close and late situations last year while Pena had a 1.054OPS and .343BA. Mannys on the other hand had a .232BA and .915OPS.

 

[PonyExpress]

That is a significant concern, but its not as though that didn't happen this year too. Ortiz was still pitched around this past year by a lot of teams in those same situations. Teams would rather face anyone in that situation over Ortiz, be it Manny Ramirez or Gabe Kapler. Until they manage to hit Ortiz behind Ortiz hes going to be pitched around.

And whos to say Drew or Pena wont be good protection? Drew had a .263BA and 1.060OPS in close and late situations last year while Pena had a 1.054OPS and .343BA. Mannys on the other hand had a .232BA and .915OPS.

I think Pena could go 30/100, though with great inconsistency. That being said, Pena is currently on the trading block, and doesn't seem to be a lock in the team's plans. Also, when opposing teams decided whether or not to pitch to Papi, Manny and his reputation as a HOF hitter superceded a 1 year "close and late" sample size. The Yankees games were good examples of what Papi can expect this coming season. They walked Manny consistently in that 5 game sweep because of his lack of protection. Papi will likely face a similar strategy in '07.

 

[Foley]

I think Pena could go 30/100, though with great inconsistency. That being said, Pena is currently on the trading block, and doesn't seem to be a lock in the team's plans. Also, when opposing teams decided whether or not to pitch to Papi, Manny and his reputation as a HOF hitter superceded a 1 year "close and late" sample size. The Yankees games were good examples of what Papi can expect this coming season. They walked Manny consistently in that 5 game sweep because of his lack of protection. Papi will likely face a similar strategy in '07.

They walked Manny consistantly because everytime they didn't he got a hit. If Ortiz manages a .727BA next year and gets 7RBI every 5 games, which is what Manny had in that series, I can deal with him being walked twice a game.

And Pena will only be on the trading block if they don't trade Manny.

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

Can we all agree that a balanced lineup with good hitters 1-9 is better than a lineup where you're always waiting for Ortiz and Manny to come up? I'd be willing to say good-bye to Manny if this could happen.

Of course, that doesn't look to be an option. Varitek would need to have a bounce-back season, Crisp would have to prove that last year was in fact just an aberration caused by an injury, Pedroia would have to develop into a solid pro pretty quickly, and they'd need to get themselves a SS (though Lugo seems an inevitable fix to this). Lowell would need to either produce similar to first half last year or preferrably be replaced (Youk can always move back to 3rd). Maybe I'm just high on Pena but I thought he showed enough last year for me to believe he could be a valuable part of the lineup.

Eh, looking at those issues this lineup has problems with or w/o Manny.

I say putting Youk, Lugo, and Drew in front of Ortiz would do fairly well as protection. Not many teams walk Ortiz with a guy on first. (fwiw, batting Drew 3rd also removes some of the stigma of having to replace Manny).

 

[BradyManny]

I say putting Youk, Lugo, and Drew in front of Ortiz would do fairly well as protection. Not many teams walk Ortiz with a guy on first. (fwiw, batting Drew 3rd also removes some of the stigma of having to replace Manny).

To replace Manny, you'd need a significant upgrade in many positions. Lugo is a significant upgrade over AGonz, but Pedroia likely won't match Loretta's production.

You really have no idea what you're going to get from Drew and how much of an upgrade it is over Pena/Trot's production from last season. Wily Mo & Trot combined for:

WilyMo+Trot (757 PAs)
.282, 19 HR, 94 RBIs

J.D. Drew (594 PAs)
.283, 20 HR, 100 RBIs

Granted, Wily Mo and Trot combined for a lot more plate appearances, but we're not talking about a huge upgrade in production, especially considering Wily Mo was battling an injury which by all accounts reduces power for about a year, and Trot was fighting injuries all season long.

Personally, I'd rather just send Wily Mo out there and spend the $ on relief pitching.

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

To replace Manny, you'd need a significant upgrade in many positions. Lugo is a significant upgrade over AGonz, but Pedroia likely won't match Loretta's production.

You really have no idea what you're going to get from Drew and how much of an upgrade it is over Pena/Trot's production from last season. Wily Mo & Trot combined for:

WilyMo+Trot (757 PAs)
.282, 19 HR, 94 RBIs

J.D. Drew (594 PAs)
.283, 20 HR, 100 RBIs

Granted, Wily Mo and Trot combined for a lot more plate appearances, but we're not talking about a huge upgrade in production, especially considering Wily Mo was battling an injury which by all accounts reduces power for about a year, and Trot was fighting injuries all season long.

Personally, I'd rather just send Wily Mo out there and spend the $ on relief pitching.

Depending on the defensive metric used Drew alone compensates for Manny. The problem will be people expecting him to replace Manny's offense which he simply cannot.

I have a pretty good idea what the sox will get from Drew: OBP around .400, slugging around .500, 20 or so home runs, and great defense.

Grouping Wily Mo and Trot isn't really fair (and i give you credit for recognizing this). Wily Mo spent a month or so starting in center while Coco was hurt. besides, most of their combined production came from Wily Mo. All trot could do was walk and hit singles, and as opponents come around on him he'll start walking less. And you cannot forgive Trot for injuries because the guy hasn't been healthy in a couple years now and who knows if he'll ever be.

I don't think anyone really wants Wily Mo playing right field in Fenway (and I love Wily Mo for his bat). If any of Ortiz, manny, or Wily mo could play defense we could simply dh one and hide the other in left. If either Coco or Manny could play right we could shift one of them, but that isn't an option either. Enter J D Drew, who plays right well.

This leaves you with Manny, Coco, and Wily Mo for two spots. either you trade one or underutilize one as a back-up.

Assuming the sox want Manny out of their hair this seems a good time to move him.

 

[Foley]

To replace Manny, you'd need a significant upgrade in many positions. Lugo is a significant upgrade over AGonz, but Pedroia likely won't match Loretta's production.

Lugo is only replacing Gonzalez in the field, same with Pedroia/Loretta. In the lineup Lugo is replacing Loretta and Pedroia is replacing Gonzalez, both of which are a considerable improvement.

I would assume that the 3-4-5 would be Ortiz, Pena, Drew (to keep it lefty-righty-lefty) which isn't really a huge step down from Ortiz, Manny, Nixon. Pena is obviously a step down from Manny, but every other spot in the lineup is an improvement or is remaining the same so the whole offense should be better, especially considering that Varitek and Crisp are likely to make some sort of rebound.

 

[Johnny Mac]

Lugo is a significant upgrade over AGonz, but Pedroia likely won't match Loretta's production.

Loretta produced a whopping .706 OPS. I'd rather let Pedroia develop at the position.

 

[Boston Boxer]

and then smear him on his way out of town, to cover their own @$$e$, as they did with Nomar and D.Lowe, what will your reaction be? According to bostonsportsmedia.com, Glen Ordway of WEEI, who is friendly with Lucchino, announced that this would be the Red Sox' course of action. It's interesting how Lowe (drunk womanizer), Pedro (primadonna), Manny (selfish, non-hustling jaker), Damon (idiot culture), Nomar (miserable) et.al., who predated the Theo/Lucchino regime, have all been deemed "unfit" to be Red Sox for various "character" issues leaked by the organization to various press toadies like Buckley and MacAdam. I guess anyone who they don't have their fingerprints on, except "good soldier" Varitek, is stained in their eyes. All I can say is, they better win this year. If not it will become clear that their World Series was a happy accident which they stumbled upon, benefiting from star players mostly provided by the previous regime. And if they release dirt on Ramirez through their press minions to the fans, after trading him, it will become clear that the character flaws are their own.

the front office does not smear these guy on the way out...it is the media that does that

 

[shakadave]

If the Red Sox trade Manny...then they are idiots.

Those who choose to ignore history are condemned to relive it. Each year Manny fantasizes about leaving, stays with us, and puts in yet another year as one of the Top Five Hitters in Baseball. Parting with Manny would pull a linchpin out of the middle of our batting order. The downside? We lose one of the greatest hitters in the game, and the black hole in the middle of our batting order sends ripples up and down the lineup card. The upside? [crickets chirping]

Please don't even try to explain to me why we should trade Manny. It's madness.

 

[3 to be 4]

Re: If the Red Sox trade Manny...then they are idiots.

Those who choose to ignore history are condemned to relive it. Each year Manny fantasizes about leaving, stays with us, and puts in yet another year as one of the Top Five Hitters in Baseball. Parting with Manny would pull a linchpin out of the middle of our batting order. The downside? We lose one of the greatest hitters in the game, and the black hole in the middle of our batting order sends ripples up and down the lineup card. The upside? [crickets chirping]

Please don't even try to explain to me why we should trade Manny. It's madness.

agreed. in the current market, and what he produces, his salary is not a problem. Especially with the people they have signed, they are in a go for it mode in 2007. Unless you can get an Andruw Jones to replace his bat, its crazy to move him now.

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

Re: If the Red Sox trade Manny...then they are idiots.

Those who choose to ignore history are condemned to relive it. Each year Manny fantasizes about leaving, stays with us, and puts in yet another year as one of the Top Five Hitters in Baseball. Parting with Manny would pull a linchpin out of the middle of our batting order. The downside? We lose one of the greatest hitters in the game, and the black hole in the middle of our batting order sends ripples up and down the lineup card. The upside? [crickets chirping]

Please don't even try to explain to me why we should trade Manny. It's madness.

In the interests of honesty there are benefits to trading Manny. The team needs:

closer
catcher to back-up Varitek and eventually take over
better left field defense
corner infielder
always need pitching
young power hitting (they have Wily Mo and nothing in the minors)

I don't want Manny traded, especially with it looking like they're really going for it in Schilling's last year. I love Manny's bat and I can care less about him "being Manny." Don't pretend though that there are no needs that trading him would fill though.