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Idle thoughts...

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by patfanken, Mar 21, 2009.

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  1. patfanken

    patfanken Rookie

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    #91 Jersey

    .... God this off season just gets better and better.

    1. I almost didn't listen to BB's interview on weei the other day, because I didn't think I was in the mood to listen to a half hour of world class obsfucation. However I was pleasantly surprised at how forthcoming he was about the Cassel and Peppers situations. Here is my interpretation of what he said.

    Cassel - Clearly the Pats were constrained by their cap situation, so the had to move Matt sometime within the first 2 or 3 days of FA or they would be completely hamstrung to accomplish the rest of what they needed to do to improve the team. One of the things I don't think that people understand is that ANYTHING we got for Matt Cassel was a bonus, since he was in the last year of his contract. The good news is that the Pats has a shot at getting at least something was using the Franchise Tag. The bad news is that THIS particular year using that tag brought us right up to the cap, so we could only keep Cassel on the team for a few days, IF we were going to make some of the other moves that would improve the team. Teams KNEW this well before the draft. They all knew that the Pats HAD to make a quick deal, and that's not good for the Pats negotiating stance.

    Bottom line KC was ready with a deal. The 34th pick most likely gives the Pats a guy with a first round Grade, and KC picks up the risk of signing Cassel to a long term contract, and paying him a GUARATEED $14.6MM. None of the other teams came close to that deal. BB was clear that at the time they had KC's offer in hand there were NO OTHER DEALS on the table. All there was were vague inuendos and rumors of "possible" deals. Bottom line a bird in the hand.....

    PEPPERS - The thing I got was that there CANNOT be a trade for Peppers....to any team... until he signs his Franchise Tender. I'm SURE that most of us didn't know that little fact. The Bottom Line here is that it is kind of useless to even SPECULATE about a possible Peppers trade until we see a new wire announcement that Peppers has signed his Tender. IF that happens before the Draft......THEN I would bet that within 24-48 hrs, Peppers will be dealt....maybe even to the Pats, but I have already made myself clear on how I would feel about that.

    2. I don't see any scenerio where the Pats keep more than 5 rookies on the final 53 man roster, so it will be very interesting to see how Bill uses those 12 picks to get those 5 players. One of the interesting things he said in his interview was the the difference between picking at 23 over 34 is NOT that you will get a better athlete, but that you have more OPTIONS on who that athlete IS. A nice subtle BB observation. Personally I'd LOVE to see him use those bottom 6 picks to move up in the draft to insure they not only get 5-6 great athletes, but they get the guys they want the most.

    3. This is day 17 of the Jason Taylor watch. Somehow I think this may go right up to training camp. Jason usually works out on his own in the off season, so he might want to avoid signing with a team early, so he can avoid all the off season workout programs and mini camps. If he signed now he may feel obligated to participate.

    4. Its not the speed, but the ACCELERATION that is what I'm looking for in our draft picks. I think the 40 yd dash is the most OVERRATED stat. Its not how fast you can run 40 yds, its how fast you can get to your TOP speed. Thats what made Barry Sanders and Jerry Rice so good. ACCELERATION = SEPARATION, both on the offense AND defense. No discussion of a draft pick should be made WITHOUT looking at a players 10 yd split, and cone drill times. Speed is nice, ACCELERATION is nicer.

    5. Could someone put a list of all the best Safety prospects for me. I think I read about a 6'4" 200+ CB who might make an awesome S.

    6. The more I think on it, the more I think the Pats might use one of their first 4 picks on a WR - a big one (Harbin, from MD comes to mind)

    7. I heard that the NFL was looking into changing the draft order, so that teams that made the playoffs wouldn't be drafting before teams that didn't. If it comes to pass I think it would mean the Pats would draft at #20 instead of 23. What are the chances of that happening for this draft.
  2. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: Idle thoughts.....

    On #7, if that were to change then it would not take place until next year. There is zero chance of it changing the order of next month's draft.
  3. Miguel

    Miguel Patriots Salary Cap Guru PatsFans.com Supporter

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  4. Pats726

    Pats726 Rookie

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    Re: Idle thoughts.....

    1----I'm always happy to hear CoachB...and he was said quite a lot about both situations. I think all Patriot fans knew how it was with Cassel and the cap...the trade was needed ASAP to free up money for players. NO question about that. As far as Peppers has gone..I think most fans realize that he has to sign the tender...SO..basically a trade would be worked out and then he would sign it and it would be done...case in point Tebucky Jones a few years ago..he signed it and the trade happened. I agree..when he signs teh trade will be done..BUT that is just a formality..it has to be done and would be..he gains nothing at that point by NOT signing it. Not big on Peppers coming here esp for big money...but for short term 2 years or so..it MAY be OK. Although I would rather he clog up someone else's cap not ours. He may say teh write things to get here..and change modes quick..so that is why I am saying short term.
    2----Of course one always gets a better pick further up one is in the draft...and what he did not mention is that players drop out of the first round and can be scooped up at 34..with 2nd round money. There is an advantage being higher, but some years there is a plateau at certain places in the draft where talent is similar and places mean little.
    3----Agreed..if Taylor is not signed..it may be he is waiting to land here before TC. No reason to rush his signing for those reasons..so that he has not signed is OK. (And makes the Peppers watch take fold..)
    4---A nice observation..true.
    5----Sean Smith Utah 6'4" 214 Utah...I am sure that some others can name the top ones..and why they would make it here
    6----Top 4?? maybe I think sometime they will but..we shall see.
    7----Not for this draft...MAYBE next year.
  5. eom

    eom Rookie

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    apparently, in this case 'most of us' = patfanken.
    can't trade him if he's not under contract, dude.

    this just means they can't trade him today, not that they can't trade him tomorrow --- and speculation usually concerns tomorrow....
  6. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    2. That's the final 53 man roster, there's also 8 other players needed to fill out the Practice Squad. NE has already used one of the "12" picks (assuming the projection of 3 comp picks works out). With the remaining 11 picks NE can indeed move around a little to get whom they want, and they could also trade a couple forward, but I think 5 rookies sticking isn't thinking in terms of the roster renovation BB started last year.
    -- By the end of the 2008 season, NE had 16 rookies under contract. They've since released two of them.
    -- Most of the rest are late round/UDFA kids who aren't locks by any means.
    -- Finally, there's a number of veteran reserves who could stand an upgrade, not to mention some veterans who are worrisome candidates for injury.
    NE may only keep 5 rookies on the 53 after final cutdown, but they're likely to keep as many again on the Practice Squad, and call another 2-3 back as they raid the Practice Squad for injury replacements.

    6. Did you mean Heywood-Bey of Maryland or Harvin of Florida?
  7. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I don't believe that is strictly true. It is true that there can be no trade for Peppers while he is not under contract to Carolina, which is his current status. In order for Carolina to trade him they have to have him under contract. All the franchise tender does is protect them from having another team sign him away for nothing in return. However, there are 2 ways in which they could trade him: (1) have him sign the franchise tender; and (2) have him sign a long-term contract. Either way, he would be under contract to them, and hence tradeable. Theoretically, Peppers' agent could negotiate a deal as the middleman between the Panthers and another team, and the Panthers would then sign Peppers and then trade him. What BB did say was that he would not do business that way; he wants Peppers signed and under contract before he starts serious negotiations.
  8. Miguel

    Miguel Patriots Salary Cap Guru PatsFans.com Supporter

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    He has to sign the franchise tender first even if he wanted to stay with the Panthers long-term.
  9. Mainefan

    Mainefan Rookie

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    The person who gave this thread 1 star deserves no stars for the rating.
  10. BradyFTW!

    BradyFTW! PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    I gave it 5 just to make up for that guy.
  11. ctpatsfan77

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    For 2009, zero—too late to change things.

    Interestingly enough, though, it sounds like they're considering making that change only for the first round (i.e., if it were done in 2009, the Pats would move up three spots in the first, but not in other rounds).
  12. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    That's very interesting, and not what I understood. If everyone wants this to happen, what is to stop Carolina from withdrawing the franchise tender and signing Peppers to a long-term deal and then trading him?
  13. reflexblue

    reflexblue PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: Idle thoughts.....

    On #4 i agree the 40 yard dash is very overated for Most players. I like the 10 yrd dash better especially for DL and LB. Again its about acceleration as you said. How many times during a game does one of the front seven have to run 40 yards if they have to something very wrong happened.
    And as far as this years 12 picks and rookies i think there is a limite like you said of how many make the team. But i think BB will trade them for future higher picks. A 2 for a 1 or a 3 for a 2 and so on next year.
  14. Pats726

    Pats726 Rookie

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    If they signed him,,,obviously Peppers would have to agree...yes?? SO..if they withdrew the franchise tag...he's a free agent so Carolina and every other team could bid on him. He would have the final say. So..why would he sign a long term deal with Carolina in teh first place?? He wants out...
  15. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    That's a fairly obvious risk, which is why I said IF everyone agreed. If Peppers had the deal in place that he wanted and merely wanted to get traded to NE (or some other specific team), then he wouldn't have any incentive to look elsewhere. Similarly, there's always the risk that Peppers signs with Carolina (either the franchise tender or a long term deal) and they refuse to trade him. But I'm not sure it's in anyone's best interest to not act in good faith.
  16. eom

    eom Rookie

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    if they remove the franchise tag, he's ufa and signs with the pats --- carolina gets no compensation.

    if carolina, peppers, and pats work out a deal, pep signs long term, then carolina says, "haha...joke's on you!" and refuses to trade, then he refuses to play --- carolina gets no compensation.
    not to mention, those kind of deals might also be run by the league office beforehand, for all I know.

    if peppers signs tender, then signs long term deal, then carolina trades him --- carolina gets compensation.
  17. Pats726

    Pats726 Rookie

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    He can also play hardball and just Deion Branch his way out of Carolina. Carolina can play hard ball and demand two number ones..but they do risk not getting that and being stuck with a player that does not want to be there.
  18. BradyFTW!

    BradyFTW! PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    Can the contract itself be made contingent on a trade, or is it just assumed that everyone will operate in good faith?
  19. PatsFan37

    PatsFan37 Rookie

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    Why wouldn't Carolina simply sign him first to the franchise, then to the contract drawn up by the other team, and then trade him with that exact contract. Wouldn't that have the same effect and put no one (particularly Carolina) at risk?
  20. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Yup, and unless he signs a long term contract with the Panthers that contains no signing bonus, which he won't do because he isn't stupid, they probably aren't going to trade him in the last capped season where bonus accelerates...and because even beyond cap consequences it would be the equivalent of paying him to play for someone else...

    I have never seen a season where fans were so confused about the tag or the cap.

    If he signs the tag Carolina can put him on the trading block. They would still need to find a team willing to either absorb his tag or sign him to a pre negotiated long term deal on the day he's traded and compensate Carolina sufficiently with draft picks to allow them to walk away from the cornerstone of their defense.

    If he doesn't sign the tag he and his agent can continue to talk to as many teams as they want but no deal gets done unless they find one for Carolina and Carolina agrees to listen and negotiate with that team. Then if they can all agree to terms he signs the tag on that day, is traded on that day, and likely signed to a new long term extension by his new team on that day. That's the way it most often works in tag and trade.

    When NY traded Abraham to Atlanta he had not signed his tag. In fact he had made it clear he was not going to play for the JETS ever again. Atlanta wanted him and he wanted them but they were not willing to trade 2 firsts for him. So he asked NY (who always intended to trade him) to work something out with Atlanta AFTER he and his agent had agreed to contract parameters. NY asked for Schaub and a 2nd rounder. Atlanta said no, we'll give you a second, period. Then NY said well Seattle caught wind of this and is interested and they'd give us a first. Only Atlanta's first was a lot higher and Abraham refused to negotiate with Seattle on a contract. But rather than eventually lose him if Seattle offered substantially more to him in contract or he just had to do a deal to get out of NY, Atlanta went to Denver and did a picks trade that gave them a late 1st they were willing to part with for Abraham. He then signed his tag and was traded and extended by Atlanta the same day...but the whole process took a couple of weeks from start (agent locates Atlanta and agrees to parameters of a deal for his client) to finish (Atlanta and NY agree on compensation).

    That whole part in the middle is what BB wants no part of...
  21. eom

    eom Rookie

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    can't new england kick in cash on the deal?
    let's say carolina pays him a 5m signing bonus --- new england sends 5m their way to cover that and they're just on the hook for 5m in dead money instead of 17m in peppers comp.
    maybe new england even kicks in green on the deal, and they've got an end for 2m, or whatever his salary is.
    meanwhile, new england guarantees pep a completion bonus in 2010.


    what you don't seem to get about 'getting compensation for pep' is that a thing is only worth what you get paid for it.
    every year in fantasy football I've got some guy *****ing me because he thinks I owe him x value on whatver player he wants to unload.
    NOBODY is giving you a ton of pick value to get peppers at 17m for one year.
    there're supposedly only a handful of teams he'll sign a deal with, and I've heard a couple are division rivals, making this a strong buyer's market.
    go ahead and stay at the cap, holding out for 2 firsts, or whatever, and see what you get.

    look at how the pats handled cassel --- that's success.
  22. scout

    scout Rookie

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    #15 Jersey

    Great well thought out post.
    Whenever I hear BB talk about the Peppers situation, "that he doesn't like to negotiate with agents", while that may be true, I feel its also a statement he's making toward his own players concerning when their contracts come up. The guy doesn't make a statement to one audience.
  23. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    No, they can't. And Green's salary and roster bonus totals $4.8M. If we've paid it already we'd be eating $2.9M in dead cap. If not Carolina, who plays a 4-3, would be paying $4.8M for a backup 3-4 DL...plus eating any bonus from a Peppers deal...

    Peppers is one of those talk is cheap kind of situations. His agent says he is perfectly fine playing for Carolina if that's the way it shakes out for $16.8M. I believe that carries as much weight as Peppers saying he wants to become a 3-4 OLB. They average a lot less. I don't want Bill paying him a lot of unrecoverable Kraft $$$ when he could just as easily decide in 2010 he wants to be a QB running the option...

    Again, it's not just about fitting a player under the cap this season. It's about paying him and all the other players you need to retain next season and the season after that if there is one. Kraft hasn't got $100M in cash over cap (bonus $$) to pay them all $20M+ bonuses next season, let alone on the eve of a possible lockout....

    This isn't Fantasy Football and it's not Monopoly money.

    And because of his unique circumstance, Cassel was found money. Anything Bill got for him without expending another dime was gravey. Carolina actually has to replace a franchise DL if they trade Peppers. He will play this season if they don't because he isn't walking away from $16.8M.
  24. BradyFTW!

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    #12 Jersey

    Great post, breaks the whole issue down very clearly.
  25. Miguel

    Miguel Patriots Salary Cap Guru PatsFans.com Supporter

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    5 million in dead money as opposed to zero after trading Peppers.
  26. eom

    eom Rookie

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    yeah, absolutely --- IF they could trade him to a team that could swallow the whole 17m, getting them off the hook, who would shower them w/all these picks, or whatever, that would be best.

    I don't know where dallas is at on their cap...let me go check...(thx, adam)...10-11m ---- let's say dallas finds a way to clear another 6, and wants to trade away next year's picks, or something like that.
    didn't they already ship away this year's for roy williams?

    the point being that carolina has very limited options right now --- they can just pay the guy 17m for one year, and then what happens next year?
    do they even get anything for him, or do they pay him another 20m?

    nobody will trade for pep if they can't sign him longer term, and he apparently has some short list that includes a couple division rivals, which carolina probably wouldn't be crazy about.

    as far as the real money of a 5m signing bonus goes, I thought the pats could cover that in the deal, but mo corrected me on that one.
    as far as the cap space ---- yeah, carolina would be on the hook for 5m, but they'd also be offloading 17m, so which situation looks better?
    they'd have 17m clear, w/5m in dead money, which would most likely be irrelevant, as I don't see them spending the 17+m.
  27. MoLewisrocks

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    What are they gonna spend the $17M on now? A replacement pro bowl DL? Not any available. Roll it over towards next year? Nope, no cap in 2010. Lavish it on a top 5 draft pick? Not without a first of their own already. They made it to the playoffs last season. Like most teams in that category they likely expect with a little luck they can do it again in 2009 maybe with a better end result. If they trade Peppers, not nearly as likely.

    They want to keep him. Been trying to sign him to an extension for over a year. They know he will show up once it counts so unless they get blown out by an offer there is no real reason for them to sell at $0.50 on the dollar. And if they tag him again for $20M heading into an uncapped season they retain the option of revisiting trading him again only in an uncapped environment. Or they retain him for less than they might have invested in him to get a long term deal done heading into a potential work stoppage in 2011. If he were bellyaching it would be a little different, but he isn't. In fact his agent sounds as if they don't really care which way it all shakes out.
  28. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    Ken - How do you figure that only 5 or 6 picks will make the team ? The Pats currently have 65 players under contract.

    Players who are all but guaranteed spots:
    Offense: (17)
    Brady, O'Connell, Maroney, Faulk, Morris, Taylor, Moss, Welker, Galloway, Light, Mankins, Koppen, Neal, Kaczur, Baker, Watson, LaVoir

    Defense (18):

    Wilfork, Warren, Seymour, Mayo, Thomas, Woods, Bruschi, Hobbs, Wheatley, Wilhite, Springs, Bodden, Sanders, Meriweather, Green, Smith, Guyton, Wright

    Special Teams: (2)
    Gostkowski, Hanson


    People on the bubble are: (IMHO) (28)
    David Thomas, Billy Yates, Russ Hochstein, Tully Banta-Cain, Angelo Craig, Ryan O'Callaghan, Wesley Britt, Dan Connolly, Antwan Spann, Ryan Wendell, Matt Gutierrez, Ray Ventrone, Nathan Hodel, BJGE, Mike Richardson, Tyson DeVree, Vince Redd, Bo Ruud, Brad Listori, Tom Malone, Al Johnson, Tank Williams, Sam Aiken, Greg Lewis, Matt Slater, Titus Adams, Shawn Crable, Eric Alexander.

    With only 37 spots all but certain, that leaves 14 roster sports needing to be filled. Then you also have the 8 practice squad spots. After players clear waivers.

    I don't feel that guys like Yates and Hochstein are guaranteed spots. Though, Hochstein in a jack of all trades (G/C/LS/TE/FB) he did a less than average job of playing guard last year. Same with Yates. Its why I feel that the Pats brought in Al Johnson. They also re-signed Connolly and Wendell. Both of whom are G/C. Wesley Britt and Ryan O'Callaghan will be duking it out for the 4th OT spot unless the Pats draft an OT early.

    I think the 4th and 5th WR slots are wide open. I expect the Pats to draft a WR to compete with Slater, Ventrone, Aiken, and Lewis.



    I think you are referring to Sean Smith. He's only 6'3, but he 's 215.




    The WR from Maryland is Darius Haywerd-Bay. Percy Harvin is from Florida. Aaron Maybin is from Penn Stat, but he's a DE/OLB

    As for picking one, I think the Pats will actually look to the middle of the draft. Guys like Aaron Kelly, Mike Wallace, and Johnny Know. If they look in the second round, then Kenny Britt and Brian Robiskie are the likely targets.

    My guess is that its slim to none that it happens this year since people have already started trading picks based on the current order.
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2009
  29. spacecrime

    spacecrime Rookie

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    Assume 6 rookies make the team. That will be all our picks in rounds 1-3. Probably rounds 1-4 if BB packages picks to move up.

    But to be conservative, figure he doesn't trade up. The first six picks are used to cut the weaker of the players on your list.

    So what do you have left? 8 more spots to fill from your list?

    Late round picks trying to beat out Shawn Crable? AIn't gonna happen. He was a third round pick who played well before going on IR. 7 left
    Hochstein? No, a rookie is not going to take his job. You only have us with 6 vet linemen. Need eight. Room for one rookie (which will be one other 1st or second round picks), but Chchsteinand one of Britt/O'Callaghan stay. 5 spots left. Greg Lewis? If a rookie beats out a guy BB already tradd a fifth round pick for, it will be one of the six early pick rookies to make team. 4 spots left.

    Dave Thomas. Are you kidding? He hasn't been used but has ben vey good when used. All his signing bonus is paid and he is earning rookie minimum. Not going to be replaced by a late round rookie who could make the practice squad. Ditto Tank Williams. The guy was going to be a centerpiece before he got hurt on the opening kickoff of the first preseason game. No rookie for him, either. 3 spots left.

    The special teams is not going to be totally replaced by rookies. The six rookies who do make the team will be all the new blood a ST unit can handle. THree of Spann, Ventront, Richardson, Alexander, BJGE make the team.

    No spots left.

    But wait, and UDFA QB who is signed to toss balls in camp and save Brady's arm beats out Gutierez.

    I'll give you seven rookies.

    You make disagree with this but if you start eliminating players you will see that by the time you eliminate the weakest of the bubble players with the first six picks in the draft, you will see that the next few drafted players are going to be facing very good veteran players to unseat. If they come close, they will be on the practice squad.
  30. Pats726

    Pats726 Rookie

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    That is all good in theory...for ONE...I doubt that CoachB keeps all the picjs in rounds 1-3...THAT I will almost guarantee...my guess is some are used to move up..down to get players he wants OR for next years picjks..if a player is not available at a particular spot. TWO..there are always injuries...so it is optimistic to think it will all fall into place like that..it happens sometimes..but more rare than not.
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