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idle thoughts....a return to calm.

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  1. patfanken

    patfanken On the Roster

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    #91 Jersey

    OK, its a beautiful Sunday morning and the earth is STILL spinning correctly on its axis, and I am in good health. I know I have ranted about this draft long and hard. I have made some pretty extreme comments in the heat of the moment. Well its time to come off the ledge and look at the situation in a more rational fashion. Here are some random thoughts.

    1. I have narrowed down my complaints about this draft to basically 3 items. and NONE of them are about not getting an immediate impact pass rusher.

    a. Not getting more out of the 33rd pick. Again, its not about choosing Dowling, its about MY contention that we could have him 4 or 5 picks (or more) later and gotten something for what I saw as a rare opportunity. Yes Buffalo picked a DB right after, but one that most felt was rated MUCH higher than Dowling. In the end I recognize this as not being such a big deal, but to me it seemed like a wasted opportunity.

    b. Ryan Mallet - forget about the off field concerns. Lets assume he's will be a hard working good citizen. Forget about the concerns that he doesn't "fit the system". Lets assume he develops over the next 3 or 4 years and reaches his potential. (Yes I think BB et al are THAT good) I have stated many times, even in my rage, that THIS was the best thing that ever could have happened to Ryan Mallet. He is now IMHO in the best position of ALL the QBs picked in this draft to actually reach his potential. But my issue is...how does that help the Pats over the next 3-4 years?! Our QB depth MAY be better, but how does that help us ON THE FIELD. We didn't improve our play at QB because Mallet will be on the bench for the next 4 years AT LEAST.

    I would have rather used the pick on a shot in the dark like Houston, Romeus, an OG, WR, DL or even ANOTHER DB....and FAILED with the pick, than take a QB....ANY QB in the 3rd round. JMHO

    c. Ridley/Vareen - I like Vareen, but I STILL can't see the Ridley pick. IF you thought Vareen was good enough to he 2nd RB taken in the draft, why do you need make a huge reach to get a short yardage/GL RB with the next pick. Couldn't you have gotten the same skill in FA in a RB you can get for roughly the league minimum? Bottom line, couldn't the Ridley pick been better used to take a shot in the dark on an OLB prospect, OG, WR, etc (see above)

    d BTW - I still wish that we had taken some of that VAST draft capital an used to get SOMEONE he DID think was worth taking in this draft early....assuming he felt this was a weak draft. Maybe he tried, or Maybe guys he wanted got scooped when he didn't expect it. But its done, over, and we all should get over it (eventually ;) ) because we will NEVER know.

    That's it. when it comes right down to its JMHO. I do so with the understanding that I don't have 1% of information that the Team does, and I, for all my years in football, don't have 5% of the knowledge, I certainly SHOULDN'T question the decision makers, especially when you consider the DECADE of results they have given us. But I did and I do, because I am a fan, and its my right. ;). Its just now in hindsight, my issues with this draft are a lot less earth shattering that I thought after Mallet got picked, I shut off the TV and posted an "end of the world as we know it" diatribe.

    BTW- I loved the Cannon pick, though I don't think he'll be a factor in 2011. I just wish we had made a similar pick on the defensive side

    4. One of the interesting and ironic aspects of football is the how we view "sacks". Last year Brady threw the ball 492 times and was sacked 25 times or about 5% of the time. The average of the 5 BEST sackers in the league was 14. If you check you will find most starting QBs had at least 450 attempts (Brees had over 650). That would mean that the DOMINANT rushers in the league had a 3% success rate, and THEY are the guys EVERYONE wants to find and pay 10;s of millions to.

    You wan more irony. PManning dropped back 455 times last season and was sacked 16, or about 3.5% and the Colts felt the need to draft 2 OLmen with their top picks in the draft. A 97% success rate for the OL and clearly that wasn't good enough. JUST a THREE percent success rate, and you are at the top of the heap in the NFL as a DOMINANT pass rusher. The guy WE all covet...and an offensive lineman with less than a 94% success rate is a turnstile. :rolleyes:
  2. patfanken

    patfanken On the Roster

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    5. Lets take a look at the Pats pass rush both last year and into the next. I will opine that I expect it to be MUCH better, even before we enter the FA market to pick up "our guy" (more on that later)

    a. Clearly adding Boddin and Dowling to last season's mix should make our coverage better. One of the problems we had last season was matching up with some of the bigger and stronger WRs that are becoming so prevalent in the league. Adding two BIG CBs to that mix is really going to help in that area.

    b. I think people are really underestimating the return of Ty Warren to the mix. Rather than question his recovery from hip surgery. We are talking about him as if he had hip replacement surgery. :rolleyes: Why don't we think about having a fully HEALTHY Ty Warren for the first time in 3 years. You remember Ty Warren. He was the guy who most fans thought was the best Pats DLman for a lot of years that Richard Seymour was going to Hawaii. Now suddenly he's thought of as an injury risk and a slow footed run stopper. No he's not a sack guy, but he is a great push the pocket from the inside guy. And that is something that leads to sacks for others. I am REALLY looking forward to watching a HEALTHY Ty Warren impact this young defense.

    c. Mike Wright - Its interesting to hear some commentators talk about the Pats rush defense and to show how bad it is, point to the fact that with 5.5 sacks Mike Wright led the Pats in sacks. Mike Wright? But what I see is the fact Wright got those 5.5 sacks in JUST 7 games. Do you want to project that out for a full season? Do you want to consider that he got most of those 5.5 sacks playing as a 3-4 DE. I mean Wright was well on his way to double digit sack season playing a position that is definitely NOT conducive to being a sack leader in this league. Have we all been sleeping on Mike Wright as a significant pass rusher for us? I think we have.

    d. Jermain Cunningham - Think about it. It took Tedy Bruschi and Mike Vrabel 3-4 years to mature and develop into significant LBs in the 3-4 system. We saw Jermain Cunningham become an INSTANT starter in his first year, DESPITE missing most of training camp....and play pretty respectable football his rookie year. Very few pass rushers blossom their rookie years. Some of the best took several seasons to hit their strides,

    I thought, given he was a rookie making one of the toughest position conversions there is to make, he did a fully remarkable job last season. I don't think we have seen NEARLY what he can be as an end product. I think he will be another part of the improvement we will see next season in the pass rush

    e. The System - I find it amusing that in all this "we need to get a pass rush" outcry. (of which I admit I was part of ;) ) We hear people lamenting that we have to find the next Mike Vrabel, or the NEXT Willie McGinest . I have to wonder if people don't realize that Willie McGinest NEVER had a double digit sack season under BB and only came close ONCE. Mike Vrabel only had ONE double digit sack season(07) and came close only one other year (nine in 03) during his EIGHT year stay in NE

    The point I'm making is that it ISN'T about one guy or even two. Its about the TEAM. During the best years of our defense what was most interesting was that while the Pats were always among the leaders in team sacks, they NEVER had anyone at the top of the INDIVIDUAL stats. Maybe that's the point we are ALL missing. Its not about getting individuals to rush the passer its about assembling the TEAM who can create those pressures. Clearly we haven't been able to do it the past few seasons. And maybe we won't be amongst the team leaders next year. But I do feel strongly that it WILL be better, even with JUST the players we currently have.

    6. The draft is over and now its time to FINALLY start to look down the road to FA. As I look at the situation, I really am starting to think that the Pats are going to make the kind of impact in FA that they DIDN'T in the draft. Given the kind of draft they DID have, I don't think FA will be impactfull in terms of the number of FA who we bring in but in WHO.

    While I mentioned that putting pressure on the QB was a TEAM effort, you cannot do it without players talented enough to make it happen. I'm looking for 2. One OLB type, like Kiwanuka or Manny Lawson. One non-traditional (for us) inside defensive penetrator who, in the pass rushing sub defenses can compliment Mike Wright to replace his skills if he can't play. Someone like Tommy Harris, or a Tommy Harris type, if Harris is actually done.

    Among those players who we do add, I expect to see at least one no name former college DE who has been making the transition to OLB be added. Another shot at finding the next Mike Vrabel. Letting another team do the work of training the player during his transition, while we get the benefits of that training. (sorta like what we are going to do with Ryan Mallet- sorry I couldn't help myself)

    I'm pretty sure will will have the money to do it. It looks like we won't have to worry about Matt Light's contract (though personally I hope he stays and starts at G). We are going to lose Morris, Taylor, and Faulk's contracts as well. And while we are paying Brady and Mankins a boatload of money this season, the rest of the team is set with pretty reasonable contracts for the short term.

    FA is going to be important to a lot of teams. I doubt that the Pats will make as big a splash as some other teams, but in the context of what we need to go over the top, it can be very valuable.

    OK I'm done. I'm going out and take a long walk and enjoy this beautiful day, Meanwhile I will expect all of you to give me my 17 pages of commentary. ;)
  3. Patspsycho

    Patspsycho Rookie

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    Regarding 1a. we did try to trade out of 33 but it fell apart for some reason. During the time we were on the clock for #33, NFLN showed a shot of the NFL league officer who teams must report trades to, on the phone. Also we turned our pick in at the very last minute.
  4. upstater1

    upstater1 Rookie

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    On the first point, I would argue that Dowling is only a second rounder because of his injuries. You have to remember he was a top 10 projection to start the year, rated ahead of Amukamara. I guarantee you that half the teams had him rated well ahead of Aaron Williams. He is simply a better DB.

    On the second point, it's not ONLY that the Patriots are stashing away a QB. A few more factors play into it. I totally believe Belichick that they are playing Russian Roulette by carrying only 2 QBs. A team needs another solid guy out there. 2 is not enough at that position. We saw 4th stringers out there this year for Green Bay and Seattle. Second factor, this kid--along with Sam Bradford--has the best skill sets of any QB to come out in the last 5 years. 3rd round--HUGE VALUE. And he provides the 3rd QB you need. Finally, Hoyer's contract ends next year. He will not be a RFA. The Patriots will not be able to resign him if another team thinks he's ready to start. Now, some teams do pay their backup QBs plenty of money to get them to stay. We've seen this happen quite often, and the Patriots could certainly throw $3 or 4 million his way, but the chances are that some team is going to throw $4 million his way and tell him he has a great chance to start.
  5. aluminum seats

    aluminum seats Rookie

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    Just want to say that this thread doesn't excuse the ridiculousness of the last one.

    Yes, we're fans, but at this point, this board has become borderline unreadable because of the flood of reactionary, knee-jerk, idle-thoughts like stuff. It's this fog of screaming and whining, which to me is at best unpleasant to wade through and at worst just not worth it at all.

    So how about more deep breaths before posting, and try to make your posts actually mean something.
  6. NEGoldenAge

    NEGoldenAge Banned

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    That's a lot of words for so little said.
  7. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    Ken, that was before Wright's brain got scrambled in a frying pan.

    Will he be medically cleared to return to football?

    He was out THREE MONTHS with a concussion when the Pats truly needed him. There had to be a serious medical reason for that.
  8. DaBruinz

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    PFK -
    Regarding Dowling. There is no guarantee he'd have been there had the Pats completed a trade down. I say this because, immediately after the Pats picked Dowling, Aaron Williams came off the board. Buffalo could have taken Dowling instead.

    That being said, we'll never know why they couldn't get a trade done. Could have been that teams looking for a QB didn't want to trade up or they weren't willing to offer the Pats what the Pats felt was a fair offer.
  9. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    Unfortunately, I believe that Wright's playing days are over. It was only 2 months ago that he was still having some issues and wasn't able to do certain things.
  10. convertedpatsfan

    convertedpatsfan PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I wish I knew the story behind what actually happened. But at the end of the day, the deal didn't get done.

    And it seems unfair for the OP to criticize not moving out of #33. It takes two to tango, and if the deal wasn't there with enough value, then making the pick makes sense. Surely the top 5 teams would have loved to move down in the 1st but it was hard to get a team to bite.

    The 49ers did move up early in the 2nd to 36, and gave up a 4th and 5th to move 9 slots. If that was offered to us, would that be enough to move off of #33 and risk losing a guy you liked to drop 12 slots? Not to me, especially when we shipped off some mid-round picks later on.
    Last edited: May 1, 2011
  11. signbabybrady

    signbabybrady Rookie

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    Really over? We had some good news on the wright front a month or two ago and a full off-season would seem like enough recovery time. Might this be a recurring problem that does end up the end sure but I would expect him back.

    Not sure why people on here always expect the worst. Ty will be lucky to walk again and Wright will never think again.
    Last edited: May 1, 2011
  12. PYPER

    PYPER Rookie

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    Welcome back to the land of sanity Ken.


    I initially agreed that I would rather see us pick up somebody who could actually help us on the field this year but think about this. One possible thought process here is that BB expects to unload Hoyer sometime in the next 12 months and perhaps even before the season begins. I've heard it mentioned numerous times that many in the league are high on him. With good reason....the guy can play. His performance in the season finale last year may even give us an outside shot at landing a #1 for him, although a #2 is far more likely. It depends on how desperate the other team is. I think he'd be a good fit for Arizona or maybe even Washington. With Mallet on board, we not only have addressed our hypothetical need for a #2 but we've filled it with a bonafide first round talent. I think this opportunity was simply too good for BB to pass up. The more I think about it, the more I like it.

    I scratched my head on that one as well. I think Vareen is depth for Woodhead and Ridley is insurance for BJGE. I also think that based on BB's history picking up RB's, perhaps its a good idea to spend two picks in the hopes of netting one player. I just hope he doesn't miss on both of them.
  13. CoachK

    CoachK Rookie

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    Thanks Ken .... I needed that !!
  14. RayClay

    RayClay On the Roster

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    I was hoping and expecting a DL, but I just don't get passionate like that about drafts anymore.

    Seems to me we judge based on a bunch of TV people who really have no idea who the teams actually want, so their "ratings" are just entertainment for the most part.

    My only point? Deciding, we could have had him here, should have traded there is really based on nothing.

    BB traded down twice, then selected maybe the second best player in last years draft. Do we really think we, or hair hat Kiper, know more about where actual GMs are going to pick players?

    ...or who should be picked where? How many surgical trade downs, then back up have been made for crucial players?
    Last edited: May 1, 2011
  15. reflexblue

    reflexblue PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    We are for heartily taking thy lord Bills name in vain, for questioning some of his decisions. Its a Freaking game, and were Fans, aka Fanatics. And we have a right to go over the edge sometimes just like the fanatics that rubber stamp anything bb does do in praising every move he makes.
    I've Never seen this board so divided in the 7 years i've been a member or before that lurking.
    Last edited: May 1, 2011
  16. ClevTrev

    ClevTrev Rookie

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    PFK - my what detail! Remember that the Pats were 14-2 during a season many termed as "rebuilding." Granted, the team proved it was doing some rebuilding due to the fact that it didn't make it to the big show. Miami was supposed to run away with the AFC East. My point is that all the "experts" combined have no clue what a team is really trying to accomplish and why. Yeah, it's fun speculating about game strategy, draft strategy, and who should be added to the team. However, it's sheer speculation based on incomplete facts and variables on which the team has far more information than the Kipers & his ilk, the message boards, and the former NFL player experts.

    The good teams know how to build, the poor teams clean house and attempt to get those who know how to build. The cycle continues. The fans have message boards as outlets and like to play Kiper, and I have zero regard for Kiper other than to say he's built a nice business and caught the ESPN gravy train.

    As for the 33rd pick or any of the other decisions made by the team, let the speculation with incomplete facts continue . . .
  17. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Ken was writing as if he depended on Wright being back. It's a 50-50 shot.

    Three months on the shelf for a concussion when you're the leading sacker on a team going into the stretch drive of a season translates into a very serious brain situation.
  18. Triumph

    Triumph Rookie

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    Welcome back off the ledge Ken. BTW, the mental midgets at JI miss you.

    I read that an, ex Pat player is a position coach for Virginia. Also, BB has ties to former UV HC Al Groh .

    If this Dowling winds up playing like first round talent, then NE still made a good deal. They saw a player they wanted and grabbed him before another team scooped him up.

    Immediately, it lights a fire under Tom Bradys rear end.

    Assuming Mallet is the good citizen in NE, 3 -4 years from today (maybe less) the Pats showcase Mallets talents and some team may come calling with draft picks or players in hand wanting Mallet as their QB. At one time Mallet was discussed being the first QB off the board.

    Someone else mentioned that Hoyer is coveted around the league. He could be dealt if true. It was also mentioned that Mallet could reduce wear and tear on Brady in the regular season.

    Ridley is supposed to be a bruising inside runner. Basically, he splits time with BJGE and is his backup. BJGE goes down, the Pats arent scouring the league for a RB that never seems to help much.

    The Pats had trouble rushing the ball vs the Jets. Today, I feel a whole lot better when I add up Solder, Ridley, Vereen and possibly Cannon this season.

    The Colts had one of the worse run games in the league last year.

    They know that cant continue.
  19. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    SBB - When a person has concussion symptoms that lasted as long as Wright's did, the chance of it being worse the next time is extremely high. One only has to look at Marc Savard and Pat LaFontaine from the NHL. Savard has lost, essentially, the last 2 seasons because of concussions. And his weren't as severe as Wright's.

    While he may want to get back out there, he's got to pass the pre-camp physical. The same one that Ted Johnson failed in prior to the 2005 season when we were without Bruschi for the first half of the season due to his stroke.

    OH, and one other thing, if he proves me wrong, I'll be the first one to say that I was glad I was wrong.. But, I've had this opinion since Mid-December about whether he'd return and have voiced it several times.
  20. denverpatsfan

    denverpatsfan PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Ken,

    Great post. Thanks for sharing your thoughts. VERY depressing draft in my opinion.

    I don't think we will see Mike Wright back this season. From what little was reported it seems that the guy's career is over.
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