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The point spread is now Patriots -10 at Indianapolis. Putting this in perspective, sure, we know the Patriots are better objectively than the Colts, but this spread puts them as 13 points better on a neutral field and would put them as a 16 point favorite at home. The spread adjusted for a neutral field was close to 10 points against Jacksonville and 10.5 against Dallas (without Romo.) I find it hard to believe the Colts with Andrew Luck are rated 2-3 points below Jacksonville or a Dallas team without Romo or Bryant. Really, when is the last time any borderline decent quarterback, even coming off an injury, was a 10 point underdog at home?
I don't want to get into a long debate about the Vegas lines, which I have in other threads, other than to say that people are mistaken if they believe the line would ever move this much naturally (5 points from the opening line), even with heavy betting on one side, unless there was a notable injury. Every week there are games where the bettors side heavily (80-90%) with one team and the line may move a point or so but that's it; and Vegas does not use the myth of past results or extra motivation as a predictor of future outcomes; they look only at the strengths of the teams.
At the beginning of the season, the early lines had this game Colts -2. 12 point swings need more than just adjusted performance ratings; they require a major injury as well.
I don't want to get into a long debate about the Vegas lines, which I have in other threads, other than to say that people are mistaken if they believe the line would ever move this much naturally (5 points from the opening line), even with heavy betting on one side, unless there was a notable injury. Every week there are games where the bettors side heavily (80-90%) with one team and the line may move a point or so but that's it; and Vegas does not use the myth of past results or extra motivation as a predictor of future outcomes; they look only at the strengths of the teams.
At the beginning of the season, the early lines had this game Colts -2. 12 point swings need more than just adjusted performance ratings; they require a major injury as well.