I am guessing Luck won't play...

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

The point spread is now Patriots -10 at Indianapolis. Putting this in perspective, sure, we know the Patriots are better objectively than the Colts, but this spread puts them as 13 points better on a neutral field and would put them as a 16 point favorite at home. The spread adjusted for a neutral field was close to 10 points against Jacksonville and 10.5 against Dallas (without Romo.) I find it hard to believe the Colts with Andrew Luck are rated 2-3 points below Jacksonville or a Dallas team without Romo or Bryant. Really, when is the last time any borderline decent quarterback, even coming off an injury, was a 10 point underdog at home?

I don't want to get into a long debate about the Vegas lines, which I have in other threads, other than to say that people are mistaken if they believe the line would ever move this much naturally (5 points from the opening line), even with heavy betting on one side, unless there was a notable injury. Every week there are games where the bettors side heavily (80-90%) with one team and the line may move a point or so but that's it; and Vegas does not use the myth of past results or extra motivation as a predictor of future outcomes; they look only at the strengths of the teams.

At the beginning of the season, the early lines had this game Colts -2. 12 point swings need more than just adjusted performance ratings; they require a major injury as well.

 

[reflexblue]

The point spread is now Patriots -10 at Indianapolis. Putting this in perspective, sure, we know the Patriots are better objectively than the Colts, but this spread puts them as 13 points better on a neutral field and would put them as a 16 point favorite at home. The spread adjusted for a neutral field was close to 10 points against Jacksonville and 10.5 against Dallas (without Romo.) I find it hard to believe the Colts with Andrew Luck are rated 2-3 points below Jacksonville or a Dallas team without Romo or Bryant. Really, when is the last time any borderline decent quarterback, even coming off an injury, was a 10 point underdog at home?

I don't want to get into a long debate about the Vegas lines, which I have in other threads, other than to say that people are mistaken if they believe the line would ever move this much naturally (5 points from the opening line), even with heavy betting on one side, unless there was a notable injury. Every week there are games where the bettors side heavily (80-90%) with one team and the line may move a point or so but that's it; and Vegas does not use the myth of past results or extra motivation as a predictor of future outcomes; they look only at the strengths of the teams.

At the beginning of the season, the early lines had this game Colts -2. 12 point swings need more than just adjusted performance ratings; they require a major injury as well.

I wouldn't be shocked if he didn't play hes been terrible against the pats, but i certainly hope he does.

 

[dannydyn]

I WANT HIM ON THE FIELD!!!! NO IFs ANDs OR BUTs!!!!

I want our defense to pick that caveman 20 times!!!! And I don't want to hear any excuses on why they lost!!!!

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

Perhaps Andrew will pull a "Tony Eason" circa Jan (not Feb) 1986. He's already got the injury thing going for him, wouldn't take much to convince people he got hurt again.

 

[Wheelman]

If Luck doesn't play we won't have a blowout.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Honestly its probably a tougher game if luck sits

 

[varjao]

Honestly its probably a tougher game if luck sits

Exactly, Tedy Bruschi said it all in his chat today, Hasselbeck did a decent job against the Texans.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I said yesterday its in the Colts best interest short and long term to sit Luck for this game.

I hate being this overconfident as I do think the Colts will play hard but the Pats are on a different level of play and emotion right now.

 

[chasa]

if were being realistic and looking at the results, Luck might not even be the best qb on their team right now.

 

[denverpatsfan]

I would take the points. Hard to blow a team out 3 times in a row. The league has a vested interest in keeping this one close. Luck has had a month to rest up? He is playing.

 

[Dr Pain]

If they want to try and mentally rehabilitate luck they will probably sit him. He has become a turn over machine and the Colts organisation ruined him. I am not sure he is ever going to be good again.

 

[Froob]

Peyton retires and Luck goes to Denver?








Kidding Luck will get it together.

 

[Joey007]

Honestly its probably a tougher game if luck sits

Hasselbeck is not as prone to mistakes. I think he's better than Weeden even at 40.

 

[Captain Cliche]

Luck will sit out...similar to the commissioner missing the opener.

Can't take the heat.

 

[Oswlek]

At the beginning of the season, the early lines had this game Colts -2. 12 point swings need more than just adjusted performance ratings; they require a major injury as well.

Are you saying that Vegas has inside info? I don't think that's necessary, the adjusted performance + questions of Luck's health + heavy betting on NE could pretty easily explain the swing.

 

[varjao]

If they want to try and mentally rehabilitate luck they will probably sit him. He has become a turn over machine and the Colts organisation ruined him. I am not sure he is ever going to be good again.

Agreed, he seems to be regressed a lot and if he is kind of banged up, needing only rest, they should sit him before this injury aggravates to the point of needing surgery, because the Pats D-Line are salivating and they will beat the hell out of Luck.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Are you saying that Vegas has inside info? I don't think that's necessary, the adjusted performance + questions of Luck's health + heavy betting on NE could pretty easily explain the swing.

I think people close to the team and close to the organization are much more pessimistic than they are saying publicly. It wouldn't be the first time Vegas has had inside information.

 

[Oswlek]

I think people close to the team and close to the organization are much more pessimistic than they are saying publicly. It wouldn't be the first time Vegas has had inside information.

It wouldn't surprise me, I just don't think the line movement can only be explained that way.

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

It wouldn't surprise me, I just don't think the line movement can only be explained that way.

I agree. All the factors you mentioned can influence a line move like this. I just think for it to move as much as it has, it is because Luck is unlikely to play. Neutral field adjustment, Patriots were -10 vs. Jacksonville and -10.5 vs. Dallas. They are -13 vs. Indianapolis. That just doesn't seem right, even with all those factors, unless Luck isn't playing.

I certainly could be wrong...this is just my best guess.

Very possible that a cowardly organization like the Colts realize they are going to get curb stomped anyway and want to salvage some shred of confidence/dignity by using the Luck injury as an excuse. If he's 50/50, I could see it going down that way.