Hinge picks & how they might ruin my day...

[SamBamsFan]

We had the monkey wrench thread a couple of days ago, and I believe it was dryheat came up w/ the thought that the draft hinged on what Cleveland would do at 13. Its a good thought. I really still think they will take the best available Fl. St. DL (if ngota isn't available), so I don't know if it is truly a "hinge". Then I was doing a mock of the 1st round and came up w/ a thought (actually the thought began w/ the 1st talk of JWalk to Denver). What if Denver goes D on 1st pick. They have an extra 2nd from SF that could probably get them Addai, or SMoss. they definitely could use a speed rusher. I'll give them Lawson.
Then there is Dallas. Tuna is reportedly heading off in the next year, or so it has been reported. He was expected to go Safety or OT, but really, do you see a value pick in those two areas? What if he follows w/ wimbley?
I am just probably overcomplicating this. Maybe it is just time to step away from the computer...

 

[dryheat44]

I see it like this: I'm reasonably sure who the first 11 picks are going to be. Then that #12 spot controls it. I think Bunkley is gone by then. If Cleveland takes one of Lawson or Wimbley, there could be a scramble upwards to get the other one. If they surprise and take one of Jackson or Holmes (highly unlikely after Edwards last year), there could be a scramble upwards to get the other one. If they take Cromartie, different things are going to happen. There could be several teams looking to trade into the pick. The draft loses all predictability, I think, with Cleveland's pick.

 

[VJCPatriot]

That's a good point a lot does depend on Cleveland. If they go with corner like Cromartie and Ngata slides... I would not mind him at all being the Pats pick at 21 although DL is not a need position per se.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I agree Cleveland is the key. What they do will also impact Dallas and to a lesser extent Miami.
I can't believe Cleveland would pass on Ngata if he's avalable. But stranger things have happened.

 

[rookBoston]

Yeah, I dont think 12 and 13 are hinge picks so much as the fact that that's the point where we get into the next echelon of talent... a talent level that lasts from 14 until 35.

'heat mentioned that's the point where the draft becomes unpredictable, and that's because there are any number of candidates for getting drafted in the teens.

Whitner could go in the teens or in the thirties. Carpenter could go in the teens or the thirties. There's a whole group of players in the same situation. Not so much a hinge as a dropoff to a new, deep plateau of talent.