Good shape for next year, yeah, and not bad for 09. 2010?
I don't know if I'm just all cranky lately, but it seems to me that with the amount of *** hitting the fan by 010, now might be the time to keep an eye on choices. Okay granted, Kelly Washington is gone. Is Stallworth a #2 worth a #1's pay? I don't think so, and the big payout is this offseason and coming season. Moss will probably cost us somewhere in the neighborhood of 8 or 9 M APY, yes, with the first year of the deal cheap next year. What does that do to us? It pushes the money we'll spend exactly where we don't want it into 2010.
Some guys whose hits go up significantly in 2008 and 2009, in millions:
07....08....09....010
Tom Brady 7.35 -> 14.73 -> 14.73 ->
Rosie Colvin 6.43 -> 7.39 -> ? (UFA)
Richard Seymour 6.71 -> 6.84 ->
9.79
Donte Stallworth 2.77 -> 6.37 -> 4.87
Randy Moss 3.0M -> ???? -> ?????
Adalius Thomas 3.41 -> 5.41 -> 6.41 -> 9.41 (010)
And next year we have almost 4M counting against the cap from Corey Dillon, don't forget.
Look at the impact of the known pickups, as well as the Brady impact (he took the hit this year... you can't keep restructuring him, unless he
wants to give away money.) Just the players above count 13M more against the cap next year than this year...
before we know the impact of the Moss deal AD, Seymour, and Brady continue that level of surplus expenditure over this year in 2009... so a significant amount of our "new" cap room is accounted right there.
So we have a buttload of FAs in 2010 and 11. We have a model and a tradition of depth. We have a model and tradition of roleplayers like Faulk (and the next Faulk, if we can find him,) being hired for the things they do, rather than a handful of homerun hitters.
We might want to ditch that model... if not, the facts are these:
- We've just signed a marquee wide receiver corps. It looks likely we'll keep a very pricey, very good #1. The Welker deal seems pretty locked in (he's not mentioned above, but he got about half upfront if memory serves.) Stallworth was structured very much like Moss, and before Moss was acquired (cheap the first year, expendable if he does not perform [or we get Randy Moss.])
- Nothing is free. Like matter and energy, you can convert one kind of money into another through loopholes. But the key is that cap money can't be created or destroyed.
- Are we "overspending" on depth now? How about on defense? Don't we spend to the cap, once all is said and done?
- Ergo, philosophy has shifted. But Moss was signed as a target of sudden opportunity,
after Stallworth.
We're going to feel the cap pain eventually. Asante is a very good CB. But we might have to part ways. Stallworth is a good #2 receiver, but something tells me that we'll accept 40 TDs a year instead of 60 (totaling direct and indirect Stallworthlessness, and being generous.)
We need to realize this team has a habit of building its linebacking corps through free agency, a pricey proposition -- just for example. If we try to keep every expensive cog in the machine, we do end up with a well tuned Jag... and when it breaks down, it might spend time in the shop, and oh yeah, with no loaner. I'll take the pickup truck (okay with the flash new chrome too,) and the second car in the garage just in case. That's what depth is for this team, and going nuts over every cog in an immensely successful 07 team might not serve us well in the out years.
I guess it depends whether we're looking to have the big end-of-dynasty sale in 010 and 011, or whether we want to take it through the middle of the next decade (randomly named because that's the outside limit of Brady's really productive career.)
Oh yeah and by the way, we're gonna need to find out Steve Young at some point too
PFnV
