Garoppolo is the last piece of the puzzle

[QuantumMechanic]

Who cares if they suck in 7 years?

That's the wrong question. The question is "who cares if they suck for N years?" And I suspect a lot of people would care.

If you have someone on the team you are confident can be an above-average 10-year starter you would be crazy to let him go if your current starter, even if he's way better than the next guy will ever be, will only be able to do it for one year. You'd be crazy to let him go if the current guy will only be able to do it for two years. It's out of the realm of craziness but probably still a bad idea to let him go if you think you'll only get three years out of the current guy. And so on, with the craziness level of letting the new guy walk dropping with each year you think you can get out of the current, superior guy.

So that's what it comes down to -- the team having to bet on how many more years Brady can do it vs. what they think Grop can do as a starter. I don't claim to know the answer. But on the Brady part of it I sure as hell think it's a lot closer to two years left than seven.

I hope the stars align so they can handle the transition well. If not, they'll be sucking for more than one year seven years from now.

 

[AzPatsFan]

My thinking may be extremely optimistic but if Garoppolo performs well during Brady's absence we could flip him for a first round pick and more. We have a replacement in house already thanks to this draft.

Garoppolo would give us back the first round pick we lost this year and it would all be because of the suspension giving him a chance to play.

I think you are dreaming....

 

[Gronk]

That's the wrong question. The question is "who cares if they suck for N years?" And I suspect a lot of people would care.

If you have someone on the team you are confident can be an above-average 10-year starter you would be crazy to let him go if your current starter, even if he's way better than the next guy will ever be, will only be able to do it for one year. You'd be crazy to let him go if the current guy will only be able to do it for two years. It's out of the realm of craziness but probably still a bad idea to let him go if you think you'll only get three years out of the current guy. And so on, with the craziness level of letting the new guy walk dropping with each year you think you can get out of the current, superior guy.

So that's what it comes down to -- the team having to bet on how many more years Brady can do it vs. what they think Grop can do as a starter. I don't claim to know the answer. But on the Brady part of it I sure as hell think it's a lot closer to two years left than seven.

I hope the stars align so they can handle the transition well. If not, they'll be sucking for more than one year seven years from now.

I totally get where you're coming from. I disagree, and would reject the premise that anything Garopollo is or has done would indicate that one could be confident he would be "an above-average 10-year starter". That's not as a knock on JG particularly, as I would disagree with that comment as a concept entirely. There's just no such thing.

I'm more confident that Tom will play out his current deal thru 2019 as an elite-level QB, and maybe even be well above-average if he could stay thru 2021, than I am in projecting success onto anyone jumping into his shoes for reasons of...he looks good? This is the best-run franchise in the NFL for a variety of reason, no doubt, but Tom is the outlier keeping it rock-solid 12+ wins per season and SB contender for 15 years, not the other way around. I love BB and cannot think of a single football coach I'd rather have but at least part of his success is Phil Jackson Effect - right place, right time. The alternative is declare that Brady is in large part a coincidence of the Patriots success and someone else could chaperone it in much the same fashion, and I just don't see it that way. In other terms, JG isn't necessarily the next Jesus just because he happens to be the guy who's the backup when Tom Brady turns 40.

 

[ausbacker]

If JAG does play and perform, I'd consider getting back what the Patriots spent on him fair value. Mind you, Houston blew its wad on a guy with a small sample size as a starter so you never know.

 

[Gronk]

If JAG does play and perform, I'd consider getting back what the Patriots spent on him fair value. Mind you, Houston blew its wad on a guy with a small sample size as a starter so you never know.

Yeah, but they also had money to burn. It's not a 1-to-1 comparison in terms of trade value, they didn't have to give Denver $18m or a 1st round pick. What JG could net the Patriots in trade is different that what JG could personally score in UFA if they kept him thru next season. And because he wouldn't be long on a rookie contract wherever he went, the comparisons to the (jokes of) QBs traded for in this year's draft aren't solid either. Wouldn't be surprised if he could demand at least a median starting QB salary AAV immediately coming out of NE in a couple years, $10-14m or so.

 

[VectorPrime]

If we were to trade Jimmy after this season the receiving team would have him under contract for peanuts for an entire year. That helps his trade value quite a bit.

 

[ausbacker]

Yeah, but they also had money to burn. It's not a 1-to-1 comparison in terms of trade value, they didn't have to give Denver $18m or a 1st round pick. What JG could net the Patriots in trade is different that what JG could personally score in UFA if they kept him thru next season. And because he wouldn't be long on a rookie contract wherever he went, the comparisons to the (jokes of) QBs traded for in this year's draft aren't solid either. Wouldn't be surprised if he could demand at least a median starting QB salary AAV immediately coming out of NE in a couple years, $10-14m or so.

The issue here is I think projections of a first round pick are wildly optimistic for JAG and truthfully, until Brady shows me he cannot complete passes, he plays until he's 50 if he's capable.

IMO, a lot of the time, people overestimate a player's worth or what he would command at the trade table because he's theirs. We're no different here.

 

[thecore762]

jimmy g is our aaron rodgers

he is the future

we need to support him and have his back

Calm down, maybe let the guy have few starts before going crazy and calling him an Aaron Rodgers.

 

[Fencer]

I still think Garoppolo has lot to prove before we can start comparing him to the likes of Rodgers or even Steve Young.

Ya think?

 

[long distance]

This thread looks like children playground so let me put it this way:
I am watching next Bradys games in slow motion just to enjoy him longer.

 

[long distance]

We run with Tom until the end. If Jimmy G nets us a 1st round pick you trade him in half a heart beat and load up for 2 more years.

the unbearable lightness of trading and overrating picks ...

 

[RobertWeathers]

I am a firm believer that the NFL is on borrowed time due to CTE issues. So frankly I don't give a damn what the team will be like in 10-15 years because it might not even matter anymore. We run with Brady until the wheels fall off because we need to enjoy it while it lasts.

I am as well.

Once CTE exams are accessible as an x-ray, not only football but other sports like hockey will take a big hit but should still survive.

 

[n6249c]

Calm down, maybe let the guy have few starts before going crazy and calling him an Aaron Rodgers.

Nah. Punch his ticket for Canton. Well, just because.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Way ahead of ourselves here.

Brady still has a legal option or two up his sleeve, with a Top Gun lawyer now heading up his team. So we don't even know how much, if any, of his suspension he's going to serve.

We clearly don't know how Garoppolo is going to play when it's "for real," but if he's good enough to trade for a First Rounder, then I wouldn't let him go...I kind of like the Aaron Rodgers/Steve Young scenario as Plan A.

Brissett is a complete unknown. A very promising unknown, but still unknown.

Also in the unknown department is Brady's longevity. I am hoping for another "Prime" season from him this year. But, I'm not looking any further ahead. A lot depends on the O-Line. And, injuries are unpredictable.

So, one day at a time.

 

[Ivan]

jimmy g is our aaron rodgers

he is the future

we need to support him and have his back

Uh oh, someone needs a hug.

 

[james87654]

Uh oh, someone needs a hug.

love you too, ivan

muah xoxo

 

[Ivan]

He has to earn our support first... but yeah, I like the kid, and want to see him succeed here

James, isn't serious he's just here to troll the forum and see who he can make angry, it fills a void deep, inside himself.

Lucinda Williams wrote a song about boys like James, it's called " He never got enough love."

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Can we please give Jimmy G some credit here. We are lucky to have him.

Can we please give Jimmy G a chance to show what he can do when it's "for real?"

 

[Fencer]

Once CTE exams are accessible as an x-ray, not only football but other sports like hockey will take a big hit but should still survive.

Interesting way to phrase it.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Interesting way to phrase it.

Unintentional....LOL.