Front Office Observation (or Not)

[AzPatsFan]

Tom Brady is the greatest QB in NFL history there would no reason for the team with the best QB in a sport where the QB is the most significant player to have a losing season.

We played in one of the weakest divisions in the NFL over the past decade also.

I am not saying Belichick doesn't do a terrific job I am just saying that Brady makes it very difficult to have a losing season.

One word... Balogna!!

 

[Brady6]

I have a Iphone 5s and an Ipad mini. It will not make me post more than I deem necessary.

Obviously, what you deem and I deem are different, I do not make comments about you having a low post count so you really should not be so taken up with my post count.

Anyway here is an article that will reviews the draft over the last decade, the Patriots did finish in the bottom 5 of all teams in draft efficiency over this period.

Which teams are the most efficient in the NFL Draft? | National Football Post

 

[Ring 6]

Obviously, what you deem and I deem are different, I do not make comments about you having a low post count so you really should not be so taken up with my post count.

Anyway here is an article that will reviews the draft over the last decade, the Patriots did finish in the bottom 5 of all teams in draft efficiency over this period.

Which teams are the most efficient in the NFL Draft? | National Football Post

That analysis is very flawed.

 

[Brady6]

That analysis is very flawed.

I agree but flaws affect all 32 teams. It is an assessment of 32 teams using the same formula for all, so any flaw that would affect the Patriots will also affect its peers.

 

[Ring 6]

I agree but flaws affect all 32 teams. It is an assessment of 32 teams using the same formula for all, so any flaw that would affect the Patriots will also affect its peers.

It is flawed as a comparison tool. That is the point of the flaw, it is not comparing all teams on an even keel.

 

[Brady6]

It is flawed as a comparison tool. That is the point of the flaw, it is not comparing all teams on an even keel.

How is that? The formula is the same for all of them.

 

[Ring 6]

How is that? The formula is the same for all of them.

There are a number of reasons:
1) It doesn't account for what part of the round your picks are in
2) It is simply a % of picks analysis. That is flawed.
If I make 13 picks and you make 3, your 3 guys have a much better chance of making your roster than mine do. If I make 13 and net 5 players and you make 3 and net 3, and my best 3 are better than yours, you kill me in this analysis.
3) It doesn't account for even the round. It splits picks into 1-3 and all the rest.
I your trade all of your 4-7's up to get a high 4 and he starts 20 games in his career you get 20/1=20 in this analysis. If I make trade downs and end up with 7 picks in rounds 4-7 and I get a stud who starts every game for 3 years and 2 others who do the same 20 starts that you got out of your only guy, then I have 70+20+20= 110/7=15.7 points. I killed you in that draft and the analysis said I suck.

I could go on. Its a bad analysis that really tells you nothing. How does it affect the Patriots ranking? Because drafting late in every round, trading down, often, stockpiling picks, and having a strong roster to begin with are all factors that would be heavily influenced by the flaws of the analysis.

If you are going to go find an analysis to make your point for you, you should read it and see if it is well done, not just search the internet for ones that come to a conclusion you would like it to.

 

[reflexblue]

It seems that with Lombardi and Schiano weighing in on Free Agency we have made some moves or are about to make some moves that would not have been considered Belichickian in the past.

I see this as a plus and an extra set of eyes that can see the whole picture. Don't get me wrong I think Belichick does a great job as "GM" but I have to say I am pretty impressed with the 4 of them(Caserio incl.) this offseason.

Maybe Belichick now has people whos opinions he respects and asks them what they think before making decisions. Remember its been quite a while since BB has taken everything thing over so to speak, and having people he trusts to talk to is a good thing.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

I remember on tuesday how everyone was saying the sky was falling..what are we doing...we signed no one in 3 hours blah blah blah.

Now Revis and Browner...this FO sucks..

 

[jmt57]

Do you honestly believe that the division has not been pathetic over the last decade ? Bills, Jets , Dolphins really.

In comparison to the seven other divisions over that time period - no, the AFC East has not been pathetic.


The flaw in the logic here (and repeated by many other fans, and sadly by many sports journalists as well) is the uneven comparison. In this case you are not only comparing three teams versus four, but you are comparing the 2nd, 3rd and 4th best versus the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th. If you take the best of any group out, it stands to reason that group will look inferior to comparable groups; that's exactly what is happening here when you remove the Patriots from a discussion about the AFC East versus other divisions. If you are going to omit the Patriots from the discussion, then you would also need to omit the best team from each other division as well to make it a fair comparison.

As the numbers in the previous post show, despite its warts, the AFC East was actually the third best division in the NFL in 2013. Do we ever hear anybody say how the Colts or Eagles benefited from playing in a weak division? Year in and year out we keep hearing how tough the NFC East is, yet reality disproves that perception; look past how Fox Sports like to pump up their big market teams and you will see that the NFC East has not won more games than they lost since 2009.

Teams like the Browns or Raiders prop up the records of teams in other divisions just as much as a team like the Bills does.

Ironically the one year that "Pats play in a weak division' line was an accurate description was in 2007; the Bills, Jets and Dolphins combined to go 0-24 outside the division that season.

Here are the records of each division for each year since the NFL went to the eight-division format. To the right are the full 16-game records; to the left in-division games have been removed to make the comparison more meaningful (they always add up to 12-12 or 11-11-2 if there's a tie).


Yearly division-by-division records:

2013:
30-10 -- NFC West -- (42-22 non-division record)
25-15 -- AFC West -- (37-27)
22-18 -- AFC East -- (34-30)
19-21 -- NFC South -- (31-33)
19-21 -- AFC North -- (31-33)
17-23 -- NFC North -- (28-34-2)
16-24 -- NFC East --- (28-36)
12-28 -- AFC South -- (24-40)

2012:
23-17 -- NFC North -- (35-29)
23-17 -- NFC West -- (34-28-2)
22-18 -- NFC South -- (34-30)
21-19 -- AFC North -- (33-31)
19-21 -- AFC East -- (31-33)
19-21 -- AFC South -- (31-33)
19-21 -- NFC East --- (31-33)
14-26 -- AFC West -- (26-38)

2011:
25-15 -- AFC North -- (37-27)
24-16 -- NFC North -- (36-28)
21-19 -- AFC East -- (33-31)
21-19 -- NFC South -- (33-31)
19-21 -- AFC West -- (31-33)
18-22 -- NFC East --- (30-34)
18-22 -- NFC West -- (30-34)
14-26 -- AFC South -- (26-38)

2010:
24-16 -- AFC East -- (36-28)
24-16 -- NFC South -- (36-28)
21-19 -- AFC North -- (33-31)
21-19 -- NFC North -- (33-31)
20-20 -- NFC East --- (32-32)
19-21 -- AFC West -- (31-33)
18-22 -- AFC South -- (30-34)
13-27 -- NFC West -- (25-39)

2009:
26-14 -- AFC South -- (38-26)
22-18 -- NFC East --- (34-30)
21-19 -- AFC North -- (33-31)
21-19 -- NFC South -- (33-31)
20-20 -- AFC East -- (32-32)
20-20 -- NFC North -- (32-32)
18-22 -- AFC West -- (30-34)
12-28 -- NFC West -- (24-40)

2008:
28-12 -- NFC South -- (40-24)
26-13-1 - NFC East -- (38-25-1)
26-14 -- AFC East -- (38-26)
26-14 -- AFC South -- (38-26)
19-20-1 - AFC North - (31-32-1)
13-27 -- NFC North -- (25-39)
11-29 -- AFC West -- (23-41)
10-30 -- NFC West -- (22-42)

2007:
30-10 -- AFC South -- (42-22)
28-12 -- NFC East --- (40-24)
23-17 -- NFC North -- (35-29)
20-20 -- AFC North -- (32-32)
16-24 -- AFC East --- (28-36)
15-25 -- NFC South -- (27-37)
14-26 -- AFC West -- (26-38)
14-26 -- NFC West -- (26-38)

2006:
23-17 -- AFC East -- (35-29)
22-18 -- AFC South -- (34-30)
22-18 -- AFC West -- (34-30)
21-19 -- AFC North -- (33-31)
20-20 -- NFC East --- (32-32)
18-22 -- NFC North -- (30-34)
17-23 -- NFC South -- (29-35)
17-23 -- NFC West -- (29-35)

2005:
24-16 -- AFC West -- (36-28)
24-16 -- NFC East --- (36-28)
22-18 -- AFC North -- (34-30)
21-19 -- NFC South -- (33-31)
20-20 -- AFC South -- (32-32)
17-23 -- NFC North -- (29-35)
16-24 -- AFC East -- (28-36)
16-24 -- NFC West -- (28-36)

2004:
25-15 -- AFC East -- (37-27)
24-16 -- AFC North -- (36-28)
22-18 -- AFC West -- (34-30)
21-19 -- AFC South -- (33-31)
19-21 -- NFC East --- (31-33)
19-21 -- NFC South -- (31-33)
17-23 -- NFC North -- (29-35)
13-27 -- NFC West -- (25-39)

2003:
24-16 -- AFC East -- (36-28)
22-18 -- AFC South -- (34-30)
21-19 -- NFC West -- (33-31)
19-21 -- AFC West -- (31-33)
19-21 -- NFC East --- (31-33)
19-21 -- NFC North -- (31-33)
19-21 -- NFC South -- (31-33)
17-23 -- AFC North -- (29-35)

2002:
25-14-1 - NFC South - (37-26-1)
24-16 -- AFC West -- (36-28)
23-17 -- AFC East -- (35-29)
22-18 -- NFC East --- (34-30)
19-21 -- AFC South -- (31-33)
17-23 -- NFC West -- (29-35)
16-23-1 - AFC North - (28-35-1)
13-27 -- NFC North -- (25-39)


Record totals since NFL went to 8 Divisions:
259-221-0 --- AFC East --- .540
253-226-1 --- NFC East ---- .528
251-228-1 --- NFC South --- .524
249-231-0 --- AFC South --- .519
246-232-2 --- AFC North --- .515
231-249-0 --- AFC West --- .481
225-255-0 --- NFC North --- .469
204-276-0 --- NFC West --- .425



When you look at it objectively, there is little factual evidence to back up an assertion that the AFC East has been inferior to other divisions in the NFL over the last several years; in fact, just the opposite is true.

 

[Brady6]

I remember on tuesday how everyone was saying the sky was falling..what are we doing...we signed no one in 3 hours blah blah blah.

Now Revis and Browner...this FO sucks..

I am very happy with those signings but until we see how it plays on the field they do not much matter, just like we could have signed 100 UFAs and it would not have mattered until we saw it on the field.

 

[Keyser Söze]

I'm loving what the front office is doing. But you're in denial if you can't be a little critical on how they handled free agency in the past.

 

[FirstAndGoal]

I think you'll find that the majority of NFL players don't last too long. I think there have been some bad years and there have been some banner years. I do know that the Patriots have expressed their feeling on some weaker drafts that they didn't like and they failed to pull many diamonds in the rough but I saw a stat somewhere that the Pats are one of the top teams in Pro Bowl players of the last decade so they must be doing something right.