FootballOutsiders on Patriots

[QuantumMechanic]

This week's update of DVOA has several paragraphs about the Patriots:

This week's other dominating victory came from the New England Patriots, and their overall DVOA goes up five percentage points, although they stay in second place because San Francisco passes them. The Patriots now have the highest Super Bowl chances according to our playoff odds report, and they've moved up onto the list of the best offenses ever. One interesting thing about New England's high total DVOA in 2012 is that according to our metrics, the New England defense is nowhere near as bad as most fans believe. The Patriots are currently 20th in defensive DVOA, with roughly the same defensive DVOA as Washington or Baltimore, and they rank 17th in weighted defensive DVOA, so things are gradually getting better.

What's different between this year's New England defense and the defense that finished 30th in the league a year ago? As far as standard stats go, the Patriots are actually allowing more points than a year ago (22.5 vs. 21.4) but fewer yards per play (5.9 vs. 6.2). When we look at DVOA, the biggest issue is an improvement against the run. Last year, the Patriots were equally bad against both the pass (28th) and the run (25th). This year, they're 20th against the pass but have improved to 11th against the run.

The improvement against the pass isn't about the pass rush. The addition of rookie Chandler Jones and the loss of Andre Carter have basically been a wash, so the Patriots have roughly the same Adjusted Sack Rate that they had a year ago. Instead, there's been a huge change in the team's ability to cover the opponent's best receivers. The Patriots actually rank in the top ten in DVOA against both No. 1 and No. 2 receivers this year. With No. 2 receivers, that's an issue of improved coverage; with No. 1 receivers, they're still allowing plenty of yardage but they've gotten a ton of turnovers (eight interceptions and a forced fumble). Just like last year -- in fact, worse than last year -- the Patriots are getting killed by tight ends and slot receivers. They also are having problems covering opposing running backs that they didn't have a year ago.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Week 11 DVOA Ratings

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

Good read, thanks for posting.

 

[patfanken]

Boy this report is gonna piss off the mediots, chronic panickers, and haters. I am SHOCKED.... shocked to find out that there is gambling going on here...... and the defense IS getting better.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Seems to me that almost every passing catagory (ypg, qb rating, passing TDs) is up over last year and that fact that the D is playing better than last year is improvement.

They are functional...and functional is sometimes enough.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Struggling in bend territory more so than in break... Maybe Aqib's presence allows coach to worry a tad less about break zone and they can tighten up in the bend zone. They have some playmakers youthful as they may be. Before Aqib even got his feet wet Bill seemed to have something of a come to jeezus moment on the sidelines with Patricia (who was still in red). Maybe even he finally had enough with death by a thousand shallow cuts. Although I think he waffled once or twice later on. I get what he's trying to do, instill discipline and build a base (walk before you run) but...sometimes you stifle instinct entirely and replace it with fear of failure. Guys have to play disciplined but loose. If they are all caught up in not making a mistake at the expense of doing what might come naturally, especially in a secondary, you can end up with a crew so tentative and overthinking everything to the point they can't do much of anything right in a split second. Oddly this crew has that tendancy to rise up when their backs are against the wall and pull a play out of their asses. Build on it. I know he hates that term swagger, but on some level players need at least a smattering of it.

 

[DaBronxPats14]

This week's update of DVOA has several paragraphs about the Patriots:



FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Week 11 DVOA Ratings

Thanx good read and some interesting stats.

 

[captain stone]

Unfortunately, their recent lousy run defense is doing their recent improving pass defense no favors.

And missing Chandler Jones is almost as bad for the defense as missing Gronk is for the offense.

 

[fnordcircle]

Unfortunately, their recent lousy run defense

Buffalo was a tackling and angle issue. There were several plays where folks like Mayo and Gregory, who should be the ones making a lot of these tackles against the run, took terrible angles or tried to arm tackle a really great RB duo in Spiller and Jackson. It wasn't an issue with the scheme it was a fundamentals issue. If we don't have one of the worst days tackling in recent memory Buffalo's rushing stats don't look so gaudy.

BB himself has been quoted saying they didn't expect Indy to come in running like they did so the team had to make adjustments. Notably the team started fairing considerably better against the run after that point.

I don't think it's fair to say we've had 'lousy run defense' lately. Well, I don't think it's accurate. In one of the two most recent games we had poor execution and in the other we weren't prepared for it.

The point being - these are fixable issues or aberrations (Mayo is a much better tackler than Buffalo made him look)

 

[cmasspatsfan]

Unfortunately, their recent lousy run defense is doing their recent improving pass defense no favors.

And missing Chandler Jones is almost as bad for the defense as missing Gronk is for the offense.

the run defense was bad for the 1st quarter and change, then they got stout for the rest of the game.

 

[jason423]

One of the reasons why the Patriots do give up so much yardage is because the offense is so productive other teams do have a large field to play with. The D has faced 54 possessions that have begun between the 16 and 20 yard line.

From an expected yardage per drive start perspective the defense has actually been above average in yards allowed. They have allowed 8.3% less expected yards based on starting field position than the league average and 2.9% less plays. They have broken more than others and are allowing an additional 9% in points to the opposition, but when you have an offense this explosive its possible some of those are late game points where they are essentially in victory mode. Thats a question you guys can answer better than I could since you watch them closely every week.

The offense is at 46% more points and 16.7% more yards so its pretty impressive.

 

[ralmat55]

Guys have to play disciplined but loose. If they are all caught up in not making a mistake at the expense of doing what might come naturally, especially in a secondary, you can end up with a crew so tentative and overthinking everything to the point they can't do much of anything right in a split second.

Great point! On the last TD pass to Dustin Keller in the 1st jets game, the pats were in a zone and had 5 defenders within 5 yards of Keller it seemed. If one of those defenders had felt at liberty to leave their zone and actually cover the guy, the touchdown would not have happened. The Pats pass defense may not be under-coached as many believe but over-coached instead.

 

[patfanken]

Jason is on the right track. The Pats offensive success and their proclivity for turn overs has statistical consequences for the defense. For example the 2 picks and the punt return TD, meant that Colts got THREE extra possessions in that game, ended up with over 80 plays. Plus after the Ninko TO, the defense was only off the field one play before they had to return.

All that adds up to extra yards that gets tacked on to the defensive totals. Totals that look worse on paper after the game, but when you watch the game are irrelevant. Think about it. After teh initial Colt burst of 17 points in the first 3 drives, the Colts were pretty much shut down for the rest of the game, with just 2 significant drives after that. (one ending in the TD the other in the pick 6)

 

[Deus Irae]

One of the reasons why the Patriots do give up so much yardage is because the offense is so productive other teams do have a large field to play with. The D has faced 54 possessions that have begun between the 16 and 20 yard line.

From an expected yardage per drive start perspective the defense has actually been above average in yards allowed. They have allowed 8.3% less expected yards based on starting field position than the league average and 2.9% less plays. They have broken more than others and are allowing an additional 9% in points to the opposition, but when you have an offense this explosive its possible some of those are late game points where they are essentially in victory mode. Thats a question you guys can answer better than I could since you watch them closely every week.

The offense is at 46% more points and 16.7% more yards so its pretty impressive.

On the other hand, the small number of offensive turnovers is a big boon for the defense, and it's one that's largely ignored in the discussions, and the high amount of turnovers on the defensive side serves as the counter to the long drives allowed by the defense. People are getting to obsessed with the "yards per" stats, and they're just as incomplete as most other stats.

New England's defense has essentially been feast or famine, and they've forced only 37 punts (just 3 more than the Patriots have had)*. Take away the turnover success, and people are talking about this as another "all time worst" type of defense.


* Per Pro-Football-Reference.com, which has a different total than NFL.com for some reason.

 

[jason423]

On the other hand, the small number of offensive turnovers is a big boon for the defense, and it's one that's largely ignored in the discussions, and the high amount of turnovers on the defensive side serves as the counter to the long drives allowed by the defense. People are getting to obsessed with the "yards per" stats, and they're just as incomplete as most other stats.

New England's defense has essentially been feast or famine, and they've forced only 37 punts (just 3 more than the Patriots have had)*. Take away the turnover success, and people are talking about this as another "all time worst" type of defense.


* Per Pro-Football-Reference.com, which has a different total than NFL.com for some reason.

I have 37 punts listed as well so NFL probably just had an error in their database entry. I wouldnt say the punt total is bad though because they are also having drives end in interceptions and/or fumbles.

For example the Patriots have twice gotten the chance to start a drive inside the opponents 5. 64.7% of those drives end in a punt and 81% end in a non-scoring chance league wide. Both drives NE played against ended in a pick, so thats actually better than the league average. Their actual punt percentages are good.

Where the defense has broken down is when they are stuck with bad field position. They have had harder times forcing the punts when teams are taking over beyond the 35 yard line and when teams take over at midfield its more or less a guaranteed score, most of which are a TD rather than a FG. If Brady ever had a bad stretch of games (and there is no reason to expect he would) where teams were getting the ball in that area the defenses scoring effectiveness is probably going to drop badly.

I do wonder how many teams try to play defense with their offense against New England which also helps them defensively. Whenever I do watch them I see their secondary getting torched but I know teams like my Jets will go into a game and hope to play ball control to keep Brady off the field and then open it up when the Patriot offense starts to pull away.

 

[patfanken]

On the other hand, the small number of offensive turnovers is a big boon for the defense, and it's one that's largely ignored in the discussions, and the high amount of turnovers on the defensive side serves as the counter to the long drives allowed by the defense. People are getting to obsessed with the "yards per" stats, and they're just as incomplete as most other stats.

New England's defense has essentially been feast or famine, and they've forced only 37 punts (just 3 more than the Patriots have had)*. Take away the turnover success, and people are talking about this as another "all time worst" type of defense.


* Per Pro-Football-Reference.com, which has a different total than NFL.com for some reason.

Listen, no is trying to say that any turn over is a bad thing for a defense....or the team. In fact there is no single play short of a TD that is more beneficial to a team. Just that sometimes plays like pick 6's and kick returns for TD's causes stats like the number of offensive plays the opponent gets, time of possession, total yds against, to rise disproportionally, and can make a team look worse than it is.

 

[Deus Irae]

I have 37 punts listed as well so NFL probably just had an error in their database entry. I wouldnt say the punt total is bad though because they are also having drives end in interceptions and/or fumbles.

Yeah, that's kind of what I'm saying. They're not forcing punts. They're at the bottom of the league in it, which is what I meant about being feast or famine. It's either a turnover for the Patriots or a score for the opponent. Just to go to the opposite end of the spectrum, Zastudil has punted 67 times for the Cardinals.

Other high powered offenses:

GB - 48 punts
DEN - 42
N.O. - 45
HOU - 53

I do wonder how many teams try to play defense with their offense against New England which also helps them defensively. Whenever I do watch them I see their secondary getting torched but I know teams like my Jets will go into a game and hope to play ball control to keep Brady off the field and then open it up when the Patriot offense starts to pull away.

For a while, the way to attack the Patriots seemed to be by limiting possessions and hoping for a stop or two. That's changed in the last 2 seasons, with some teams going with the idea of deep plays (20+) as a way to combat the Patriots with some level of success. Not every team has gone to it, and it hasn't usually been enough, but it's forced the offense to be a 30ppg offense in order to win.