Fleshing out the "bad GMing" theory

[Fencer]

Then you haven't been paying attention.

In the past 5 seasons, the Patriots have acquired, among others:

Moss
Welker
Mayo
Gronkowski
Hernandez
Vollmer
McCourty
Chung
Gostowski
Mesko
Waters
Woodhead
BJGE

The main players who have left who have been effective elsewhere were the very highly paid Seymour, Samuel, and Cassell, plus Dave Thomas. (If you want to include Gaffney too, be my guest, but they acquired him in the same time period.)

Call that an average track record if you like (although I might disagree). But BAD? YouGottaBeKidding.

And if we change the window to something other than 5 years, the results would be pretty similar.

 

[Deus Irae]

In the past 5 seasons, the Patriots have acquired, among others:

Moss
Welker
Mayo
Gronkowski
Hernandez
Vollmer
McCourty
Chung
Gostowski
Mesko
Waters
Woodhead
BJGE

The main players who have left who have been effective elsewhere were the very highly paid Seymour, Samuel, and Cassell, plus Dave Thomas. (If you want to include Gaffney too, be my guest, but they acquired him in the same time period.)

Call that an average track record if you like (although I might disagree). But BAD? YouGottaBeKidding.

And if we change the window to something other than 5 years, the results would be pretty similar.

You've been misleading with your list, both by ignoring the bad pickups and by listing mediocrities as if they were something special. It's also amusing to see you pick 2007 as the starting point, given that you put yourself in position to add Welker and Moss to the list, rather than starting with either 2008 or 2006, either of which would obviously undercut your claim. You can cherry pick your starting point, and you can heap all the sugarcoating on it that you want. There's only so much that's going to cover up. The recent personnel moves have been bad.

 

[Amnorix]

It's not exactly difficult to figure out exactly where Belichick the GM has massively let down Belichick the coach -- it's in the secondary, where there has been a massive investment of effort and scant return over the last many years. Going back to 2003 (no particular order), we've made the following picks on DBs in the first four rounds:

Meriweather (1)
Chung (2)
Wilhite (4)
Wheatley (2)
Butler (2)
McCourty (1)
Ras-I Dowling (2)
Hobbs (3)
Sanders (4)
Scott (3)
Reid (4)
Wilson (2)
Samuel (4)

Nine years and two 1st round picks, five 2nd round picks, two 3rds and three 4ths.

All to have, as of today, two of them starters, and only three of them even on the team and one of the absolute worst pass defenses in the NFL.

 

[Ring 6]

It's not exactly difficult to figure out exactly where Belichick the GM has massively let down Belichick the coach -- it's in the secondary, where there has been a massive investment of effort and scant return over the last many years. Going back to 2003 (no particular order), we've made the following picks on DBs in the first four rounds:

Meriweather (1)
Chung (2)
Wilhite (4)
Wheatley (2)
Butler (2)
McCourty (1)
Ras-I Dowling (2)
Hobbs (3)
Sanders (4)
Scott (3)
Reid (4)
Wilson (2)
Samuel (4)

Nine years and two 1st round picks, five 2nd round picks, two 3rds and three 4ths.

All to have, as of today, two of them starters, and only three of them even on the team and one of the absolute worst pass defenses in the NFL.

You can't go back 9 years and judge based on who is still here.
Name a team with more than 1 or 2 players in their secondary who have been there more than 5 years.
Lets look at these individually:

Meriweather (1) Borderline pick, started for 4 years then cut. Most first round picks don't last longer.
Chung (2) Starter, good player, reasonable pick
Wilhite (4) Stuck a long time played a lot, good for a 4th rounder
Wheatley (2) Failure
Butler (2) Good rookie season, below avg second then gone. Probably a little below avg for a late #2
McCourty (1) Rookie deserving probowler
Ras-I Dowling (2) TBD
Hobbs (3) Multi year starter on good teams, effective pick
Sanders (4) Lasted a long time as #1 backup parttime starter. Good #4 pick
Scott (3) Fail
Reid (4) Mostly fail, but 4th rounders are less than a 50/50 shot
Wilson (2) Borderline. Good player until injured. Lasted his rookie contract starting a lot.
Samuel (4) Homerun 4th rounder

I do not understand how anyone can look at those one by one and call that a bad drafting job unless they are clueless abuot the success rate of draft picks in the NFL.

 

[Ring 6]

You've been misleading with your list, both by ignoring the bad pickups and by listing mediocrities as if they were something special. It's also amusing to see you pick 2007 as the starting point, given that you put yourself in position to add Welker and Moss to the list, rather than starting with either 2008 or 2006, either of which would obviously undercut your claim. You can cherry pick your starting point, and you can heap all the sugarcoating on it that you want. There's only so much that's going to cover up. The recent personnel moves have been bad.

How is:

"Over the past 5 years, the Patriots have acquired, among others" misleading in any way?
How exactly did he list mediocrities as if they were something special?

He made a list of some of the players who were acquired and left it to the reader to decide if that was good or not.
Clearly you have an agenda or a hair across your @ss if you find that disingenuous.

 

[hovis]

Meriweather (1) Borderline pick, started for 4 years then cut. Most first round picks don't last longer.

Try 9 years.

 

[Sciz]

Try 9 years.

Not all with the team that drafted them though.

 

[Fencer]

It's also amusing to see you pick 2007 as the starting point, given that you put yourself in position to add Welker and Moss to the list, rather than starting with either 2008 or 2006, either of which would obviously undercut your claim

I'm sorry it was too much trouble for you to read to the end of my post.

 

[hlywoodjp]

It cracks me up how someone can turn a whole team around while maintaining a winning record (and the lousy draft picks) every year and be a horrible GM.

I'm sure now that Buffalo has one winning team after years of horrible ones and the resulting high picks, their GM will be lionized as a personnel genius.

I keep hearing this. It might have something to do with the prime Hall of Fame QB he is starting. Buffalo's iffy QB situation is a large part of what kept them bad for so long.

 

[DaBruinz]

In a league where teams spend to a hard salary cap, there are three ways to screw up in personnel:

• Too many guys who are overpaid
• Too few guys who are underpaid
• Suboptimal talent mix

Looking at Miguel's page, the guy with the #2 cap hit was just cut. Ouch. #4 and #10 are on IR. #3 is missing some games right now. #9 and #11 are Ellis and Ochocinco respectively.

"Dead money" -- pre-Bodden -- isn't bad at all, however.

Bargain guys would include Gronk (definitely), Fumblefingers Hernandez (up to a point), Solder, Chung (arguably), Waters (I think -- Miguel's page isn't current on him), Woodhead, Arrington (underpaid JAG starter), and not all that much else.

McCourty should be atop that list, or second to Gronk, but he's having a rough season to date. Vollmer would be on it too, but he happens to be hurt. Spikes may join it at any time.

I don't see much of a mix problem. There's not a lot of redundant talent, RBs and OTs notwithstanding, and I don't see all that much talent getting stifled due to poor scheme fit.

So in which of these three areas do the critics think the Pats are doing badly?

Umm.. are you saying that guys who are only in their 2nd year of their contract are underpaid? It's hard to tell with the way you wrote the paragraph that I bolded.

 

[DaBruinz]

Quite a few of our starters would be benchwarmers and special teamers on most teams.

Could you please provide a detailed list of these starters? Thanks..

 

[DaBruinz]

Most of the secondary+ guyton + Ninko,also not sure how much playing time guys like AH,Carter,Ellis would see elsewhere.

Our offense is ok aside from the flankers.

That's your list??

Chung would start on many teams. McCourty would also. Arrington would be more than competent as the 3rd corner on just about every team in this league.

Guyton? He's not a normal starter.

I'd be willing to bet that Carter would be starting. As for AH, he's currently a situational player for the Pats as he building his stamina back up.

Ninkovich, I'll give you. And I'll give you Barrett.

But how is that "quite a few"?

For the WRs, you have Welker and Branch. Are you really saying that Welker wouldn't start on other teams?

Branch I'll give you. I'll also give you Connolly because he's the new starting center with Koppen out for a majority of the season.

So, that's 4 players? When did 4 of 22 become "quite a few"?

 

[DaBruinz]

I said it in other threads and I will say it here......the 06-08 drafts stunk and that is biting the Pats in the proverbial butt as those players, were there any left on the roster, would be entering or in the prime of their careers right now.....years 3, 4 and 5 of their playing careers. Pats have nothing to show for those drafts, nothing and that is what is hurting this team right now.

The 07 draft stunk for pretty much the entire league. Last count has 34 of(13 of 32 and 21 of 32, 1st and 2nd rounds respectively) the top 64 players of that draft on teams other than those who drafted them or out of the league entirely within 3 years. When over half of the top 2 rounds is that bad, it's a bad draft, talent wise.... I didn't go beyond the second round but I'm fairly certain it gets worse.

 

[DaBruinz]

Then you haven't been paying attention.

He's been paying attention. The problem has been the ridiculous expectations of Patriot fans, yourself included.

 

[DaBruinz]

It's not exactly difficult to figure out exactly where Belichick the GM has massively let down Belichick the coach -- it's in the secondary, where there has been a massive investment of effort and scant return over the last many years. Going back to 2003 (no particular order), we've made the following picks on DBs in the first four rounds:

Meriweather (1)
Chung (2)
Wilhite (4)
Wheatley (2)
Butler (2)
McCourty (1)
Ras-I Dowling (2)
Hobbs (3)
Sanders (4)
Scott (3)
Reid (4)
Wilson (2)
Samuel (4)

Nine years and two 1st round picks, five 2nd round picks, two 3rds and three 4ths.

All to have, as of today, two of them starters, and only three of them even on the team and one of the absolute worst pass defenses in the NFL.

You go back to 2003 with this and think that it some how proves something? It doesn't. Especially when you outright ignore the contributions that some of them made. Such as Wilson and Samuel lending help for 2 SB rings.

The fact that Sanders was solid for 6 years for the Pats.

Hobbs was also very solid for his tenure, including playing through the sports hernia during the SB where the Pats goofed and left him on an Island with Burress because Samuel didn't want to play the other side of the field..

You also add players to the list who are still growing. Guys like Chung, Dowling, and McCourty. You act as if the book on them is done and over with.

One of the things that you (and many others) overlook is the chance of success by round that had been pervasive through out the modern draft. This roundup was done by Charlie Casserly and is one of the few things he actually knows what he's talking about.

1st rounder: 75% chance of starting by year 4.
2nd rounder: 50%
3rd rounder: 30%
4th rounder: 25%
5th rounder: 20%
6th rounder: 9%
7th rounder: 5%

Let's review:
1st round: McCourty and Meriweather - Both started by year 4.
2nd round: Chung, Butler, Wilson, Wheatly, Dowling - Chung and Wilson both made the year 4 mark. Butler and Wheatly didn't for the Pats. Dowing is an incomplete...
3rd rounders: Hobbs and Scott - One hit, one miss.
4th rounders: Sanders, Samuel, Wilhite - Sanders and Samuel were both starters. Wilhite was a starter by injury necessity. So, two hits and one miss.

Sure looks like the Pats are as good or better than what the averages show..