ESPN's Quarterback Ratings are a joke

[raduray]

I've asked Brian Burke, who was hired by ESPN and put in charge of it, but he said it was proprietary. This is, of course, reason to be suspect, even if I like and respect Burke as a statistician.

Mathematical models often have a real hard time reflecting reality, because you are standardizing using a set array of inputs. For instance, the macroeconomic models used to make hugely important decisions about the global economy are usually no more empirically accurate than QBR.

"Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics"

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

Disney doesn't break out its ESPN revenue and income, so you have to estimate it. From the WSJ:

Disney’s ESPN Reality Show Doesn’t Convince




That means ESPN is estimated to contribute about $9.5b in revenues and $3.6b in operating income to Disney in 2015.

SNL Kagan estimates that ESPN's primary channel get $6.61 per subscriber per month, and as of September of 2014, they had 95m subscribers. That more than $600m per month in revenue just from the main ESPN channel.

From their 2014 annual report:

https://cdn.thewaltdisneycompany.com/sites/default/files/reports/10k-wrap-2014_1.pdf

Just going off the prior year's numbers, ESPN alone would contribute about 19% of Disney's total revenue but nearly 28% of its operating profit. That's more than the theme parks or the movie studio segments. I would say that ESPN is one of Disney's most valuable properties.

Very true that the income is not necessarily in line with its valuation. The link I posted is an estimate of the Disney division's value as estimated by a financial company, that value is north of 50 billion while disney overall is 120 something billion. So take it for what it is worth.....but I am relying on it being close to accurate for the premise of my post.

So if dissney cares about its stock price, which it does to the Nth degree, ESPN is that crown jewel by a lot.

 

[pherein]

Brees threw 7 TD 1 INT, which does not detract from your point.

I agree, but I would not agree its an Int. Thats were the system is flawed. Look at 2 min 45 sec. Sneed catching a perfect pass and then handing it to the defense? How in any way is that a Int? But goes on Brees record as a pick 6. Crazy, Brees never threw an Int.


and if this is a 91.7 QBR I hope Brees never breaks 92 QBR lol. That was a clinic.

 

[jah]

I agree, but I would not agree its an Int. Thats were the system is flawed. Look at 2 min 45 sec. Sneed catching a perfect pass and then handing it to the defense? How in any way is that a Int? But goes on Brees record as a pick 6. Crazy, Brees never threw an Int.


and if this is a 91.7 QBR I hope Brees never breaks 92 QBR lol. That was a clinic.

I dunno, it just looked too fast to be a catch to me. Stats don't care whether they're deserved. Technically it was an INT, it was not Brees' fault, but neither was Brady's 1 pick this year. Just how it goes.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

Reading the tea leaves from ESPN's statements, I think the huge, utterly fatal flaw is the focus on "clutch" plays.

The way they figure it, a key conversion on 4th & long when you're trailing late in the game counts vastly more than the same pass on 2nd down when you're up by 3 scores. Throwing a couple of interceptions isn't too bad, as long as they come in the first half. Etc. Which means that their formula disses a dominant performance in a wire-to-wire victory. Which means that it disses 2015 Tom Brady. No "agenda" required, just a major conceptual fail.

As another poster mentioned, CHFF's Real Quarterback Rating seems pretty solid. For this season it shows Brady well out front, followed by a tight clump of Dalton, Palmer and Rogers, then another group of Carr, Rivers, Eli and Brees.
Cold, Hard Football Facts.com: The Truth Hurts

This CHFF rating system is at best suspect and at worst completely flawed. These conventional metrics such as TDs, Int ratio, yards per completion, completion percentage, and even winning are a misguided attempt to rate a QB using 'PR', and often are tallied by biased sources often using secret math. The truer, fairer and more telling metric is 'clutch QB play', and Clutch QB play can be precisely defined. Watching a game one will see the easily defined clutch action, and note it and the circumstances accordingly. For example: 'Clutch action notation: Colin Kapaernik ran and passed to put his team in position to successfully convert a a 60 yard field goal. Score 49ers 3, Patriots 42. 55 seconds left in the game'.

Signed,
The QBR & Integrity Staff of ESPN

 

[sevengables_2207]

Should just let Gruden do them. Everyone would have a 1,o00,000 QBR.

Fixed it for ya'

In all seriousness though, Gruden the football commentator is the epitome of the "everyone gets a trophy" meme pregnant in our culture...