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ESPN QBR v. FO DYAR

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by ctpatsfan77, Sep 20, 2011.

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Which Week 2 ranking seems more logicasl?

Poll closed Sep 25, 2011.
  1. ESPN

    3 vote(s)
    8.6%
  2. Football Outsiders

    32 vote(s)
    91.4%
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  1. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Which list of top 10 QBs from Week 2 seems more accurate to you?

    ESPN:
    1 Romo DAL
    2 Campbell OAK
    3 Hasselbeck TEN
    4 BRADY
    5 Roethlisberger *IT
    6 Fitzpatrick BUF
    7 Freeman TB
    8 Schaub HOU
    9 Sanchez JEST
    10 Rivers SD

    Football Outsiders:
    1 BRADY
    2 Campbell OAK
    3 Roethlisberger *IT
    4 Fitzpatrick BUF
    5 Romo DAL
    6 Dalton CIN
    7 Hasselbek SEA
    8 Rivers SD
    9 Rodgers GB
    10 Stafford DET
  2. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I like the traditional NFL passer rating best... perhaps it is familiarity..

    NFL Stats: by Player Category

  3. The Scrizz

    The Scrizz Rookie

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    Not familiar with DYAR but QBR is not trying to measure stats, it's trying to measure a QB's contribution to the game, much the same baseball stats like WAR try to measure the affect one player has on a game.

    I don't like QBR because it has subjective components that they foolishly try to gloss over, but it weights a QB differently based on the situation of the game.

    Stafford doesn't even show top 10 because he gets no 'clutch' points because the game is so out of hand. It is similar to high-leverage vs. low-leverage innings for pitchers in baseball.
  4. BSR

    BSR Rookie

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    I like football outsiders better but I don't think they put in their defensive adjustments in until week 3 so at this point it is just YAR not DYAR.
  5. Mainefan

    Mainefan Rookie

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    I have no idea why anyone is talking about QBR anymore. It was conceived for physicists, not football fans.
  6. strngplyr

    strngplyr Rookie

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    This. I'm used to it, I like it better, and under most cases it seems accurately place the top QB's in order more often than not.

    The QBR is dumb and uses opinions based on what someone thinks is important or not.
  7. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I hate value stats like these. I think Football Outsider's is better than ESPN's screwy value added ratings, but I still have little use for either.
  8. 37Harrison

    37Harrison Rookie

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    #37 Jersey

    I think the QBR is a good idea however as with most 'New' systems it has bugs in it and needs to be tweaked. I think it CAN be a very good system in the future if they work out these bugs. As of now, I still like using my eyes rather than any stat sheet.
  9. BradyFTW!

    BradyFTW! PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    Any system that doesn't list Brady as the top QB in the NFL over the past two weeks is inherently broken.
  10. lamafist

    lamafist Rookie

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    DYAR isn't the right FO metric to compare QBR to. They're measuring different things.

    QBR is a rate stat, which attempts to measure how efficient the QB was on a per play basis, while DYAR is a hybrid rate/counting stat, that measures value accrued by the quantity of performance at the efficiency rate. DVOA, FO's pure efficiency rate stat, is the more natural comparison.

    So QBR and DYAR tell you different things. Take a QB who gets knocked out of a game halfway through due to injury. He's unlikely to rank high in DYAR, because he had less of an opportunity to contribute to game's outcome, whereas he'd be as likely as any QB to rank at the top in QBR, which is trying to tell you how well he contributed during however much opportunity he had.
  11. lamafist

    lamafist Rookie

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    I'm not seeing all this subjectivity. I think it's a matter of misleading terminology. When you hear that they're counting "dropped passes," one imagines them deciding on a case by case basis whether the WR "should have had it" or not. But this isn't how it works. Rather, the stat-keepers are simply keeping track of whether the pass was nowhere near an intended receiver, in the vicinity of the receiver, or was touched by an intended receiver. This way, the negative change in expected points can be weighted by the percent of times a pass might have been caught -- 0% for a ball nowhere near the intended target, and, for balls that contact a receiver, a different percent depending on how often receivers catch balls they contact thrown that distance to that portion of the field.
  12. BradyFTW!

    BradyFTW! PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    I think the point is that it's foolish to 'punish' Stafford for the fact that his offense has been putting games out of hand in the second/third quarter. Would he be a better QB if he sucked early in the game so that he could lead a memorable comeback later?
  13. The Scrizz

    The Scrizz Rookie

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    It's not punishing Stafford, it's just not measuring QB performance which is what everyone thinks it's measuring. It's measuring contribution.

    They were stupid to even mention it in the same context as passer rating because they aren't even attempting to measure the same thing.
  14. The Scrizz

    The Scrizz Rookie

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    Then it's a case of them explaining themselves piss poorly. They make it sound like they judge on a case by case basis.

    "The part of QBR that could be cynically called "subjective" is that there are judgment calls with regard to what are dropped passes vs overthrows or underthrows or defended passes. ESPN's video trackers have strict guidelines on how to chart these items so that they are consistent across the different people doing charting. If you as a fan go out and chart these yourself for a game or two, you will see how several calls are easy, but some are quite hard to judge. We have standards that make things more uniform and every game is done twice to reconcile inconsistencies. Despite the standards, the gray areas will still exist and, because they exist, the division of credit quantitative analysis described below is important. That analysis is what says that a "drop" isn't necessarily all about a receiver because there are gray areas in drops."

    Judgement calls are not "the receiver touched the ball but didn't catch it, let's compare that to the statistical norm of a receiver touching the ball and not catching it."

    They admit themselves that there are gray areas and judgement calls. So yes it is subjective. They say nothing about "a different percent depending on how often receivers catch balls they contact thrown that distance to that portion of the field" which would be a statistically viable way to handle it.

    So either you are incorrect or whoever wrote their FAQ is an imbecile. Because what you write and what they write are mutually exclusive.
  15. lamafist

    lamafist Rookie

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    The guy who wrote the FAQ is the statistician Dean Oliver. He's like the Bill James of basketball. Decidedly not an imbecile. Probably could be better at communicating what he's doing in laymen's terms. His explanation is more clear and detailed in the main writeup of his methodology than in the FAQ.
  16. slam

    slam Rookie

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    Romo did contribute a lot to the Jets' week 1 victory, so I guess he does deserve the #1 slot.
  17. The Scrizz

    The Scrizz Rookie

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    I'd like to read it. Layman's terms suck. I'd like to know what he's actually doing. Do you have a good link?
  18. BradyFTW!

    BradyFTW! PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    Which in no way invalidates my point. You're splitting hairs to make a distinction that is 100% irrelevant to what I said.

    Is it true that Stafford does not rank as highly on the QBR as he otherwise would simply because the offense that he pilots is putting games out of reach early on? If this is true, then QBR is either measuring wrongly or it's measuring something dumb that doesn't warrant much thought.

    Personally, I'd rather have a QB that can bury the opposition in the third quarter than one who can scrap his way to a fourth-quarter loss.
    Last edited: Sep 20, 2011
  19. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    QBR is a lousy stat. I thought week 1 had already made that obvious.
  20. TheSolderKing

    TheSolderKing Rookie

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    BOTH SUCK!!! Why???

    where is CAM NEWTON? 400 plus yards and no love



    clearly they made a mistake
  21. TheSolderKing

    TheSolderKing Rookie

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    D (Major Phuck up) FINAL ANSWER




    Where is Cam Newton?
    Last edited: Sep 20, 2011
  22. Triple-T

    Triple-T Rookie

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    QBR is dumb.

    The problem is the subjectivity on player contribution, but even more so, the clutch index is likely the biggest culprit. You can't penalize a QB for being good early and not having a tight game and then reward another for not doing well early. If I only care about the win, I want the biggest lead I can get, as early as I can get it, to put the game out of reach. Every point matters regardless of when it is scored. QBR perverts that.
  23. The-Hooded-One

    The-Hooded-One Rookie

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    Cam Newton? He's busy throwing interceptions. You can't seriously believe 1TD-3INT belongs in the top ten.
  24. TheSolderKing

    TheSolderKing Rookie

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    but he threw for 4 TD's and 400 plus yards


    4-3 TD/INT Ratio it certainly is NOT a negative ratio
    Last edited: Sep 20, 2011
  25. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    He's got 3 TDs and 4 INTs on the season.
  26. The-Hooded-One

    The-Hooded-One Rookie

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    These lists are for week 2.
  27. Anteros

    Anteros Rookie

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    Yup, I vote for this one also. So "none of the above" to the poll picks.
  28. BradyBranch39

    BradyBranch39 Rookie

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    Anyone want to guess the length of T.Jackson's second-longest completion this season?

    edit: just tweeted the answer
    Last edited: Sep 21, 2011
  29. lamafist

    lamafist Rookie

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    It's on espn with the rest of the QBR stuff. I think the FAQ even links to it. He's still clearing writing for a general ESPN audience, so he doesn't get to indulge in the wonk side like the guys at Football Outsiders or Advanced NFL Stats, but he does go into more detail about how they use the charting data that people worry is subjective. He explains how the potentially debatable 'judgement calls' are used less to affect an individual QB's score directly, but rather as collective data to establish baselines for how much a certain type of pass's completion rate varies based on QB as opposed to WR -- like, hypothetically, if passes to RBs in the flat on 1st and 10 show more variance from QB to QB and less variance based on WR than other types of passes, that informs how much weight to give increases in expected point values in terms of the QB's contribution.
  30. lamafist

    lamafist Rookie

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    That's not really how the 'clutch index' actually works, though I can see how you'd think that.

    This is another frustrating situation where ESPN's poor choice of terminology screwed things up for them. Calling something a "clutch index" sounds like something that specially factors in last-minute heroics. Rather, what Dean Oliver's doing is a play's net change in expected win probability to weight the basic yardstick of QBR, which is the change in expected points probability.

    Over at Advanced NFL Stats, Brian Burke keeps graphs of the fluctuation in win probability from every play of every game during the season.

    Basically, the way it works is that, using the outcome of every football game in modern NFL history as a sample pool, you come up with a win percentage for teams that have been in the same situation -- field position, score differential, time remaining -- as a given team on a given play. After the next play, you re-calculate the historical win percentage based on the new game situation. The difference between these situations gives you an idea of how much that last play affected a teams' likelihood of winning.

    Now, while time remaining does enhance win% volatility, score differential is the more prominent factor. If you look at the WP chart for the game against the Chargers last Sunday, you'll see that the Pats did most of their win% increasing in the 2nd quarter. Brady's contribution in expected points during that stretch will benefit from added weight due to its high "clutch index" -- it's where the most game-deciding plays occurred.

    Assuming a fixed number of points a team's defense will ultimately give up, since we're talking probability, every game has the same potential for net "clutch index" weight -- after all, until the games over, a team's win % will be somewhere between 0 and 1. This is why "clutch index" is such a poor choice for what it reflects in the QBR metric -- it adds weight to the QB's performance when the game was being decided, whether that was in the first half or last play.
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