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Re: OT: ESPN's Total QBR
I'm not sure which of those QBs you're suggesting are better than Russell, but bear in mind this rating is based on single seasons, and Russell actually had a decent year in 2008:
53.8%, 2,423 yards, 6.58 YPA, 13 TDs, 8 INTs, 77.1 rating.
That was Russell's 2nd season in the NFL. I hadn't realized it until I saw it, but it looks an awful lot like Sanchez's 2nd season:
54.8%, 3,291 yards, 6.5 YPA, 17 TDs, 13 INTs, 75.3 rating.
Sanchez did have more than 1/3 more attempts though (507 vs. 368). But Russell's 2008 definitely was better than Sanchez's rookie season with 12 TDs and 20 INTs and a rating of 63.
We could look at all sorts of numbers but I want to focus on TDs and INTs because that's a pretty good indicator of decision-making, as well as rating just because that's an established benchmark (not perfect, but gives a good general idea).
Of other QBs below the Russell line, one might argue Bulger shouldn't be there. But in 2008 and 2009 (both listed under Russell), he threw more INTs than TDs, and had completion percentages under 60%, and ratings under 72.
Matthew Stafford looks solid, but the season listed is his rookie season, where he threw 13 TDs vs 20 INTs and had a rating of 61.0.
Matt Hasselbeck is a much better QB than JaMarcus Russell, but not in 2008 and 2009. In 2008, he had 5 TDs and 10 INTs and a rating of 57.8. In 2009, he had 17 TDs and 17 INTs and a rating of 75.1.
Matt Cassell (name your kid Matt if you want him to grow up to be a QB) is listed for 2009, where he threw 16 TDs and 16 INTs, completed 55% of his passes for a 69.9 rating.
In reviewing those years below the Russell line, none of those QBs had a season better than Russell's 2008. I'm not saying the system is great. I am still reading through it and trying to understand it. But you can't question it's accuracy based on their interpretation of Russell's 2008 season, which was, in fact, better than those listed below it.
I didn't want to post the whole list because it is on ESPN Insider, but a small section of the rating has Jamarcus Russell better than a few QBs I don't think he is better than (in the scale, 50 is average, 100 is perfect, large # is # of plays, small # is QBR):
83 2008 JaMarcus Russell OAK 472 34.5
84 2009 Brady Quinn CLE 321 33.2
85 2008 Marc Bulger STL 556 33.0
86 2009 Matthew Stafford DET 460 32.9
87 2009 Marc Bulger STL 309 31.9
88 2009 Kerry Collins TEN 256 31.5
89 2009 Mark Sanchez NYJ 473 30.9
90 2008 Matt Hasselbeck SEA 259 30.9
91 2009 Jake Delhomme CAR 396 30.5
92 2009 Matt Cassel KC 658 30.2
93 2009 Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 310 29.9
94 2008 Derek Anderson CLE 366 29.6
95 2009 Matt Hasselbeck SEA 592 26.7
96 2010 Brett Favre MIN 459 25.8
edit: apologize for the formatting. I tried to make it columns but forum software ignores my spaces
I'm not sure which of those QBs you're suggesting are better than Russell, but bear in mind this rating is based on single seasons, and Russell actually had a decent year in 2008:
53.8%, 2,423 yards, 6.58 YPA, 13 TDs, 8 INTs, 77.1 rating.
That was Russell's 2nd season in the NFL. I hadn't realized it until I saw it, but it looks an awful lot like Sanchez's 2nd season:
54.8%, 3,291 yards, 6.5 YPA, 17 TDs, 13 INTs, 75.3 rating.
Sanchez did have more than 1/3 more attempts though (507 vs. 368). But Russell's 2008 definitely was better than Sanchez's rookie season with 12 TDs and 20 INTs and a rating of 63.
We could look at all sorts of numbers but I want to focus on TDs and INTs because that's a pretty good indicator of decision-making, as well as rating just because that's an established benchmark (not perfect, but gives a good general idea).
Of other QBs below the Russell line, one might argue Bulger shouldn't be there. But in 2008 and 2009 (both listed under Russell), he threw more INTs than TDs, and had completion percentages under 60%, and ratings under 72.
Matthew Stafford looks solid, but the season listed is his rookie season, where he threw 13 TDs vs 20 INTs and had a rating of 61.0.
Matt Hasselbeck is a much better QB than JaMarcus Russell, but not in 2008 and 2009. In 2008, he had 5 TDs and 10 INTs and a rating of 57.8. In 2009, he had 17 TDs and 17 INTs and a rating of 75.1.
Matt Cassell (name your kid Matt if you want him to grow up to be a QB) is listed for 2009, where he threw 16 TDs and 16 INTs, completed 55% of his passes for a 69.9 rating.
In reviewing those years below the Russell line, none of those QBs had a season better than Russell's 2008. I'm not saying the system is great. I am still reading through it and trying to understand it. But you can't question it's accuracy based on their interpretation of Russell's 2008 season, which was, in fact, better than those listed below it.
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