Early projection of the Patriots 2015 adjusted cap number

[rochrist]

I expect them to get the deals done with their guys and redo Mayo and Wilfork, but they won't be players in free agency, choosing to keep their guys instead.

I also expect Ridley back.

Only if it's a very low one year deal. Remember they already have Gray and Blount under contract for next year.

 

[rochrist]

Agreed. No restructure for Wilfork. He wouldn't accept it anyway after what he considers some disrespect last offseason from the Pats. Same with Brady. Don't restructure him and push more money into the future. Let it play out year-to-year. Mayo will need, and I think accept, a restructure. Maybe Arrington as well.

Cut Hooman, T. Wilson, Amendola, maybe Gostowski if the money is absolutely needed elsewhere, resign Revis (!) and McCourty and probably Solder (at modestly cheaper dollars). Vereen is a hard decision. I don't know what will be the best thing to do with him.

Have you seen the disasters that happen all around the league with the wrong kickers? We have one of the very best kickers in the league. No thanks.

 

[rochrist]

Wilfork has earned his money this year and also brings value above and beyond his play. He may be the most highly respected player on the team. If not, it's close. He has been a bedrock player and, even in Foxboro, some accomadation has to be made for being a great player/teammate/lockerroom presence. This is a core guy who has toed the line and helped lead for BB for more than a decade, like Bruschi, Troy Brown et.al.. I think that's the difference between him and Seymour and why one player will be viewed as a core all-time Patriot great and the other just a great player who played for the Pats. He won't be cut.

Money for Gost will be about 4 mill/yr. I think resigning him will depend on the strength of the kicking prospects available. Gost has been fantastic and deserves his money, but I'm not sure BB will pay any kicker that much. See Vinatieri, Adam for details.... For non-core players, it's not just about player value, it's also about replacement cost. If BB can find 90% of Gost for 3.5 million less, he may move on. He's done it in the past.

And when that missing 10% costs the team a playoff spot, or a SB? Personally, I think BB regrets Vinatieri, although in retrospect, Ghost is better due to his ability to cause consistent touchbacks.

 

[Ivan]

I don't think you understood my post. I'm NOT arguing that Wilfork shout be cut after this year. My argument for cutting last year him was based on a projection that he wouldn't be able to play, combined with his cap hit. He obviously proved me wrong about the former, and he IS earning his pay. So you pay him. Unless there is some reason to believe that he won't play at this level in 2015, or unless some other option magically appears, he's worth it (and I suspect he'll likely be better in 2015 with a year's recovery under his belt, and if we can limit his snaps more).

2016 is another thing altogether. At age 33, projecting more than one year out is too risky. So I think it will be hard to restructure Wilfork, because any restructure would just be pushing more money out to the future, and the future beyond is too uncertain.

No, I understood it and agree on not letting him go but disagree on not resigning him at a lower number. IMO guys like Wilfork can play well post 35 and I would try to get a new 3 year deal done that lowers his number. Branch has barely played for them and Siliga while decent isn't Wilfork. That said It is where I stand and I am not going to bother arguing it because you can never argue about players based on age because they never get younger and those wanting to get rid of them aren't going to change their view no matter how well they play. I have no problem however with letting him finish his incentive laden deal and going from there.

 

[mgteich]

Well, I guess you decided to come back and continue in the conversation afterall. Nice little tantrum, btw.

The reason you believe that my questions are"bull" is simple...you can't answer them. You can't find any NT in the league who is being paid $7M at 34 years old and you can't find an example of the Patriots overpaying an aging veteran.

If Wilfork didn't have the name "Wilfork" on the back of his jersey and it was "Smith" instead and we rated him simply on his performance, not a single fan would pay "Smith" $7M to play for us next year. Guys like you have trouble separating the past from the future. Wilfork is not the player he was several years ago.

BTW, I have never participated in fantasy football....ever.

WILFORK
Many of us objected to Wilfork being paid $8M in 2014, with all of the money being paid even if Wilfork didn't play a down a went on IR.

That was NOT the contract that the patriots signed with Wilfork. His contract guaranteed him $3M. He would receive up to $8M if he met his game incentives, which he will.

The patriots concluded that Wilfork was worth $8M for his projected 2014 play. You disagree then and now. The current contract calls for Wilfork to be paid a bit more than $8M of new money in 2015.

Last year, the guaranteed part of the $8M was $3M. This year, the year the guaranteed piece is about $5M (roster bonus plus workout and weight bonuses). Last year, Wilfork was injured and it was not clear that he would play at all, and still the team guaranteed him $3M. Presuming that Wilfork ends the year healthy, it is likely that the team will think that he is still worth $8M.

THE DECISION
That being said, there is indeed a decision to be made. Is Wilfork worth $8M for his 2015 services, with $5M guaranteed? Those who think that the team can simply not pay the bonus and still secure Wilfork's services are simply kidding themselves. Wilfork will NOT take a pay cut from the patriots after playing for a year under a show-me contract. The team twisted his arm last year when it wasn't clear that he would even play again. A pay cut won't happen if Wilfork is healthy.

I expect that the team will pay Wilfork the bonus and continue to have one the very best set of DT's in the NFL: Wilfork, Siliga, Jones, Branch and Easley (plus Walker as injury insurance).

 

[DaBruinz]

Again, I will ask two questions.....how many 34 year old NTs are making $7m a year in the NFL right now.....and.....show me the last time the Patriots have overpaid an aging veteran.

1) So, because there is only 2 NTs who are going to be 34+ next year and the one other than Wilfork was never half as good as Wilfork, you think that somehow justifies your statement? There aren't that many other NTs in the league. Furthermore, you have the likes of Ngata and Ragi being listed as DEs by their teams and not NTs.. Oh, Ngata will be 31 and have a cap hit of $16M next year. 7.5M of that is already dead money.. Are you going to try and tell me that Wilfork isn't as good as Ngata?

2) Chad Johnson - Paid him 6.5 Million back in 2012..

 

[mosi's man]

I think your argument has merit. I'm not sure I would have let Vinatieri walk and I'm not sure I would let Gost go. I also didn't want Milloy to leave, or Ty Law, or Seymour, or Mankins or several others who departed. I'm merely saying that if it happened I wouldn't be shocked.

 

[mgteich]

No, I understood it and agree on not letting him go but disagree on not resigning him at a lower number. IMO guys like Wilfork can play well post 35 and I would try to get a new 3 year deal done that lowers his number.

Wilfork signed his current contract under duress when it wasn't clear that he'd play again. You think that take a pay cut now that he is healthy and has had a fine year?

 

[Ivan]

People commenting on the Pats not paying Wilfork because he's 34 years old should remember that we traded for Ted Washington and his $1.65M salary while Washington was 35. 1.65Million in 2003 is probably Double or triple that now.

I honestly believe that Vince falls into the same category as Brady and Bruschi. Players who have a special place in Belichick's heart and for whom Belichick won't cut..

I agree that Wilfork is a special player to Belichick but think he would release his mother if it came to that. And the Ted Washington comparison is exactly where I am at, I think Wilfork can be a valuable player for them for another 3 seasons and would find a way to get a seas done for that time frame. IMO his value has increased because of the increase in two man lines by the Patriots. The fact that the Patriots have been primarily a sub based defense and Wilfork is still making his incentives points to how important he is to those packages.

 

[DaBruinz]

Agreed. No restructure for Wilfork. He wouldn't accept it anyway after what he considers some disrespect last offseason from the Pats. Same with Brady. Don't restructure him and push more money into the future. Let it play out year-to-year. Mayo will need, and I think accept, a restructure. Maybe Arrington as well.

Cut Hooman, T. Wilson, Amendola, maybe Gostowski if the money is absolutely needed elsewhere, resign Revis (!) and McCourty and probably Solder (at modestly cheaper dollars). Vereen is a hard decision. I don't know what will be the best thing to do with him.

You can't cut someone who is a free agent the way Gostkowski is.
Solder and Revis are not free agents.

Please do yourself a favor and do a bit more homework so you can participate in the conversation with an educated opinion.

 

[mgteich]

I don't think a restructure on Bradys contract is as clear as you expect @mgteich. We might not want to raise his cap hit in the future years. It's nice to have more cap space now. But I don't really see the huge need for that cap space and we will need cap space in a few years too, especially when Jones and Hightower are to be resigned.

????

Brady's cap is $13M, $14M and $15M for three years remaining on his contract. All of this money is guaranteed (or will be at season's end). A restructure simply moves $4M of 2015 cap costs into 2016 and 2017. This is not an unusual step. I see no reason for the team not to take advantage of this cap accounting move. Brady's new cap for 2016 and 2017 would be $16M and $17M, reasonable for a top 10 quarterback. In any case, we are just discussing moving around of guaranteed money. The compensation to Brady remains the same. The options for the team remain the same.

Whether Brady signs an extension beyond 2017 is another matter entirely. I would expect those discussions might take place in the 2016 off-season.

 

[Ring 6]

????

Brady's cap is $13M, $14M and $15M for three years remaining on his contract. All of this money is guaranteed (or will be at season's end). A restructure simply moves $4M of 2015 cap costs into 2016 and 2017. This is not an unusual step. I see no reason for the team not to take advantage of this cap accounting move. Brady's new cap for 2016 and 2017 would be $16M and $17M, reasonable for a top 10 quarterback. In any case, we are just discussing moving around of guaranteed money. The compensation to Brady remains the same. The options for the team remain the same.

Whether Brady signs an extension beyond 2017 is another matter entirely. I would expect those discussions might take place in the 2016 off-season.

Not sure of the details, but if its all guaranteed, can you even more it back?

 

[Ivan]

Wilfork signed his current contract under duress when it wasn't clear that he'd play again. You think that take a pay cut now that he is healthy and has had a fine year?

I think they could extend him, I don't think he would accept a straight up pay cut.

 

[mgteich]

I think they could extend him, I don't think he would accept a straight up pay cut.

Perhaps, Wilfork would accept an extension if his guaranteed monies were at least what he is scheduled for under the current contract. This is the situation that the injured Mayo will be in.

However, I just don't think Wilfork will sign another show-me one-year contract. If the team wants to reduce the cap hit, they would need to give him more money.

It would be better for the team for Wilfork to extend the contract with a lower 2016 compensation and with a commitment for 2017. How would it help Wilfork? If the patriots don't want to pay him, Wilfork would likely be willing to play under a 1-year show-me contract for someone else.

 

[mgteich]

Not sure of the details, but if its all guaranteed, can you even more it back?

Yes, guaranteed salary is allowed to be converted to bonus. Brady would receive the pay earlier. BTW, Miguel suggested this possibility in his blog. I'm sure that he has done the research.

 

[RI Patriots fan]

1) So, because there is only 2 NTs who are going to be 34+ next year and the one other than Wilfork was never half as good as Wilfork, you think that somehow justifies your statement? There aren't that many other NTs in the league. Furthermore, you have the likes of Ngata and Ragi being listed as DEs by their teams and not NTs.. Oh, Ngata will be 31 and have a cap hit of $16M next year. 7.5M of that is already dead money.. Are you going to try and tell me that Wilfork isn't as good as Ngata?

2) Chad Johnson - Paid him 6.5 Million back in 2012..

1.) Ngata is 3 years younger than Wilfork and yes, I think the fact that there is only one other 34+ year NT speaks volumes. What does that say about the position and age at that position? BTW, Ngata's salary is only $8.5M so if the Ravens were to cut him they would still have to eat the dead money.

http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/baltimore-ravens


2.) It wasn't $6.5 M in 2012 because he restructed his deal. He ended up taking a pay cut only costing the Patriots $1 milion plus the signing bonus money which the Patriots would have had to eat anyways.

"Patriots wide receiver Chad Ochocinco has redone his deal for the 2012 season, lowering his base salary from $3 million to $1 million, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter."


http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/sh...ad-Ochocinco-restructures-contract-3mill-to-1

http://espn.go.com/boston/nfl/story...nd-patriots-restructures-contract-source-says

 

[mosi's man]

You can't cut someone who is a free agent the way Gostkowski is.
Solder and Revis are not free agents.

Please do yourself a favor and do a bit more homework so you can participate in the conversation with an educated opinion.

I'm sorry. I used the wrong terminology. I'll try to be more precise in the future. But when we are talking about next year's team, it's a subtle difference between cutting someone and resigning them once they become a free agent (or extending them) when it's not entirely clear whether they will be on the roster. The only substantive difference is whether any dead money remains. We're talking about whether a given player will be on the Patriots roster for next year. When discussing Gostkowski the difference is between resigning him or replacing him. I don't think the logic changes regardless of either situation. The Pats need a kicker next year; will Gost be resigned or will they opt for a cheaper option? That's the question I was trying to raise.

 

[RI Patriots fan]

Its called having a life, I'm not on call at patfans 24-7.

Belichick doesn't play Wilfork extensively and teams don't constantly double team him because of his name, it is because of his play. And your football analysis is apparently limited to age and cost, which it's worthless imo. You wanted him gone last off-season and it would have been a huge mistake, now you simply want to double down on your stupidity.

Actually, "having a life" has nothing to do with you coming back to this thread after you said.....and I quote........"I'm done with this. I have no interest in make believe GM nonsense." So you had your little tantrum and now you're back. That speaks volumes.

Your name calling speaks volumes as well. It shows, along with your tantrum, a lack of maturity.

 

[RI Patriots fan]

People commenting on the Pats not paying Wilfork because he's 34 years old should remember that we traded for Ted Washington and his $1.65M salary while Washington was 35. 1.65Million in 2003 is probably Double or triple that now.

I honestly believe that Vince falls into the same category as Brady and Bruschi. Players who have a special place in Belichick's heart and for whom Belichick won't cut..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salary_cap

Actually the salary cap in 2003 was a little over $75M. So Washington's percentage of the cap was 2.2%.

If the cap is $142M next year, then Wilfork's percentage of the cap space will be about 5%.

If Wilfork's cap hit was 2.2% or $3.124M, then I'm sure most on this board would think that was a decent value. But $7.1M is far different than $3.1M.

 

[mgteich]

Not sure of the details, but if its all guaranteed, can you even more it back?

2015
$4M is the most that can be saved in 2015, absent an extension with a fake year or two. Even that wouldn't gain much more.

The 2015 cap of $13 consists of a salary of $7M and $6M which the amortized portion of the $30M signing bonus. The signing bonus cannot be moved, other than being accelerated should Brady leave. Miguel presumed a salary of $1M and put the remaining $6M in a new signing bonus, moving $4M forward.

2016
In 2016, an additional $3.5M can be moved to 2017 if that is desired, or even more if there is an extension.