Early projection of the Patriots 2015 adjusted cap number

[Ivan]

If you have no interest in playing "make believe GM" then why "contribute" to this thread? You know what....don't answer that question either. At least you'll be consistent.

That's because your question is bullish.t. you say you wanted him to redo his deal and he did just that and signed an incentive laden deal, and now that he is earning his incentives you want to claim he isn't worth it when in truth meeting your incentives is the definition of "worth it." in truth there is nothing he can do to be worth it because you decided you wanted him gone because he was over 30 anyways,. And your characterization off Wilfork as just a run stuffing NT is like saying Revis isn't a playmaker because teams won't throw his way.Wilforks real value doesn't show up on a stat sheet so you can't understand it. He simply doesn't give you enough fantasy points.
, I.e. he's not "worth it."

 

[Marinlik]

That's because your question is bullish.t. you say you wanted him to redo his deal and he did just that and signed an incentive laden deal, and now that he is earning his incentives you want to claim he isn't worth it when in truth meeting your incentives is the definition of "worth it." in truth there is nothing he can do to be worth it because you decided you wanted him gone because he was over 30 anyways,. And your characterization off Wilfork as just a run stuffing NT is like saying Revis isn't a playmaker because teams won't throw his way.Wilforks real value doesn't show up on a stat sheet so you can't understand it. He simply doesn't give you enough fantasy points.
, I.e. he's not "worth it."

Watch his play. Wilfork isn't as good as he used to be. He gets turned from the play much more than he used to and gets pushed away from the hole more too. He doesn't push the pocket as well as he did before either. There is a big difference between his play in his prime and this year.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Watch his play. Wilfork isn't as good as he used to be. He gets turned from the play much more than he used to and gets pushed away from the hole more too. He doesn't push the pocket as well as he did before either. There is a big difference between his play in his prime and this year.

Regardless of what folks say about his level of play, with a cap fig of $8.3m next year, paid $7.5m and a hit a $866k if cut, its a no-brainer his deal is re-done. With that said, he will not see his $4m roster bonus.

 

[Ivan]

Personally, I was one of the more vocal people talking about moving on from Wilfork last season, because I questioned his ability to come back from his injury. He's done much more than I expected, and I can't really see the team moving on before 2016 at this point. At his age, it's a year-by-year proposition, but unless something happens between now and March I don't see it.

I'm aware of that Mayo, and it is one of the few things I have really disagreed with you on. I don't however see you in here claiming he isn't worth the money when he is actually earning it through his play, which is imo the definition of earning it. I also don't see you bring dismissive s ands derisive about his play this season, which is what RI is doing, Wilfork started slow as Hyde came back from the injury but he has been critical to the success of their defense this season, and imo they would have been screwed without him, especially when Siliga and Jones went down and Easely week to week.

I could understand the arguments for having Wilfork redo his deal and making it incentive laden, what I think it's bullsh.t is to now try and claim he is overpaid when he is actually earning his money by meeting his incentives.

 

[Ivan]

Watch his play. Wilfork isn't as good as he used to be. He gets turned from the play much more than he used to and gets pushed away from the hole more too. He doesn't push the pocket as well as he did before either. There is a big difference between his play in his prime and this year.

I do watch his play and see a guy who is a critical piece of a top five defense and I think the claim he's not is garbage.

 

[Big-T]

Restructure Mayo.
Restructure Amendola, for the right money he's worth keeping for kick returns.
Extend Wilfork, lower his cap number.
Extend Revis and lower his cap number.
Extend Solder, try reduce his 7 and a bit million cap hit if possible.
Cut Hooman.
Cut Devey, it might only save 500k but c'mon, it's Devey.

Hopefully that would be enough to keep the important guys.

 

[mayoclinic]

I'm aware of that Mayo, and it is one of the few things I have really disagreed with you on. I don't however see you in here claiming he isn't worth the money when he is actually earning it through his play, which is imo the definition of earning it. I also don't see you bring dismissive s ands derisive about his play this season, which is what RI is doing, Wilfork started slow as Hyde came back from the injury but he has been critical to the success of their defense this season, and imo they would have been screwed without him, especially when Siliga and Jones went down and Easely week to week.

I could understand the arguments for having Wilfork redo his deal and making it incentive laden, what I think it's bullsh.t is to now try and claim he is overpaid when he is actually earning his money by meeting his incentives.

I don't think you understood my post. I'm NOT arguing that Wilfork shout be cut after this year. My argument for cutting last year him was based on a projection that he wouldn't be able to play, combined with his cap hit. He obviously proved me wrong about the former, and he IS earning his pay. So you pay him. Unless there is some reason to believe that he won't play at this level in 2015, or unless some other option magically appears, he's worth it (and I suspect he'll likely be better in 2015 with a year's recovery under his belt, and if we can limit his snaps more).

2016 is another thing altogether. At age 33, projecting more than one year out is too risky. So I think it will be hard to restructure Wilfork, because any restructure would just be pushing more money out to the future, and the future beyond is too uncertain.

 

[mosi's man]

Agreed. No restructure for Wilfork. He wouldn't accept it anyway after what he considers some disrespect last offseason from the Pats. Same with Brady. Don't restructure him and push more money into the future. Let it play out year-to-year. Mayo will need, and I think accept, a restructure. Maybe Arrington as well.

Cut Hooman, T. Wilson, Amendola, maybe Gostowski if the money is absolutely needed elsewhere, resign Revis (!) and McCourty and probably Solder (at modestly cheaper dollars). Vereen is a hard decision. I don't know what will be the best thing to do with him.

 

[Marinlik]

I don't want to extend Wilfork because that will most likely mean more guaranteed money. I still like what he brings. But I don't want to lock us to a 33 year old DT for several years because of guaranteed money. I'd rather take it year by year with him.

I don't want to extend Brady right now either, for kind of the same reason. At his age 3 more seasons is a long time. I don't want to commit to 41-42-43 year old Brady(that would be a 3 year extension) when he is 37 today. If he still plays at this level at his last year and Garoppolo hasn't shown that he can be a franchise QB then you re-sign Brady. I don't see the need to push his cap into the future either. Rather see us have some more room in the future.

Nothing against Brady or Wilfork. It's just my opinion that you can't lock yourself too far in the future with players that are old and close to that point where the level of play can drop off fast.

The three for us too keep in my opinion are McCourty, Revis, and Gostkowski. Gostkowski is young for a kicker and he is very good. Top kicker money isn't that expensive any way.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Vince was chapped he had to re-do his deal this past off-season. He is still good vs the run. But, can't finish plays. Gets push/penetration. Can't get to rb. I'd be shocked if he's back. Save a lot of cap space by letting him walk. Prob value of McCourty new deal.

We don't save enough by just cutting Mayo. We'd have to replace him. I believe he's back at lower figure.

Guys like Hooman and Amendola will be let go. Can be upgraded. Connolly is a UFA and has to be upgraded. Vereen is a UFA and sliding back to he can be replaced too.

Extending Revis gives enough space for valuable pieces such as; Ayers, Casillas, Branch and Gostkowski.

I'd keep Solder at his option number and see how he does before locking him in long-term.

We'd need help at; DT, G and RB. Can be done in draft.

I'd prefer to help wr and te thru free agency. Not a good draft year for te, and no faith in drafting a wr

 

[RI Patriots fan]

That's because your question is bullish.t. you say you wanted him to redo his deal and he did just that and signed an incentive laden deal, and now that he is earning his incentives you want to claim he isn't worth it when in truth meeting your incentives is the definition of "worth it." in truth there is nothing he can do to be worth it because you decided you wanted him gone because he was over 30 anyways,. And your characterization off Wilfork as just a run stuffing NT is like saying Revis isn't a playmaker because teams won't throw his way.Wilforks real value doesn't show up on a stat sheet so you can't understand it. He simply doesn't give you enough fantasy points.
, I.e. he's not "worth it."

Well, I guess you decided to come back and continue in the conversation afterall. Nice little tantrum, btw.

The reason you believe that my questions are"bull" is simple...you can't answer them. You can't find any NT in the league who is being paid $7M at 34 years old and you can't find an example of the Patriots overpaying an aging veteran.

If Wilfork didn't have the name "Wilfork" on the back of his jersey and it was "Smith" instead and we rated him simply on his performance, not a single fan would pay "Smith" $7M to play for us next year. Guys like you have trouble separating the past from the future. Wilfork is not the player he was several years ago.

BTW, I have never participated in fantasy football....ever.

 

[chasa]

the only way wilfork doesn't come back next year is if we win it all this year and he decides to retire.

 

[mayoclinic]

Watch his play. Wilfork isn't as good as he used to be. He gets turned from the play much more than he used to and gets pushed away from the hole more too. He doesn't push the pocket as well as he did before either. There is a big difference between his play in his prime and this year.

Is it any surprise that a 33 year old 325+ (++) lb. DT coming off an Achilles rupture doesn't have quite as much push as he did in his prime? The fact that he's able to do as much as he does is amazing. I thought it might take a full year to recover, and possible that he would never have quite the same power as he used to. If anything, I would think that he could be better next year with more recovery time, and if the Pats paced him a bit more. Injuries have cut into the latter, but with Siliga and Branch there's no need to overwork Wilfork.

I don't think it's a coincidence that the Jets' rushing effort came with Wilfork playing on 4 days rest and playing a ton of snaps (64/69 against Buffalo, and 68/87 against the Jets). Compare that with 31 snaps against San Diego.

 

[Marinlik]

Is it any surprise that a 33 year old 325+ (++) lb. DT coming off an Achilles rupture doesn't have quite as much push as he did in his prime? The fact that he's able to do as much as he does is amazing. I thought it might take a full year to recover, and possible that he would never have quite the same power as he used to. If anything, I would think that he could be better next year with more recovery time, and if the Pats paced him a bit more. Injuries have cut into the latter, but with Siliga and Branch there's no need to overwork Wilfork.

I don't think it's a coincidence that the Jets' rushing effort came with Wilfork playing on 4 days rest and playing a ton of snaps (64/69 against Buffalo, and 68/87 against the Jets). Compare that with 31 snaps against San Diego.

I don't think it's any surprise that his push isn't what it used to be. Achilles ruptures tend to do that. I'm impressed over what he has done after the injury. But I'm of the opinion that you pay for what a player can do in the future, not what they have done before or overcome. I'm just not sure that he will play to a level worth $7.2M next year. I don't really think he has been $7.2M good this year. So I really hesitate to say that he will be that good when he is one year older. If it where any other player than Wilfork I would absolutely say that his not worth that much. The fact that it is Wilfork makes me hesitate.

There has been many years where Wilfork was worth that much. But I'm not so sure that he is that good any more, or will be again. I hope I'm proved wrong. But you get into trouble if you pay for what someone for their legacy and not their current play.

 

[mosi's man]

Wilfork has earned his money this year and also brings value above and beyond his play. He may be the most highly respected player on the team. If not, it's close. He has been a bedrock player and, even in Foxboro, some accomadation has to be made for being a great player/teammate/lockerroom presence. This is a core guy who has toed the line and helped lead for BB for more than a decade, like Bruschi, Troy Brown et.al.. I think that's the difference between him and Seymour and why one player will be viewed as a core all-time Patriot great and the other just a great player who played for the Pats. He won't be cut.

Money for Gost will be about 4 mill/yr. I think resigning him will depend on the strength of the kicking prospects available. Gost has been fantastic and deserves his money, but I'm not sure BB will pay any kicker that much. See Vinatieri, Adam for details.... For non-core players, it's not just about player value, it's also about replacement cost. If BB can find 90% of Gost for 3.5 million less, he may move on. He's done it in the past.

 

[mayoclinic]

I don't think it's any surprise that his push isn't what it used to be. Achilles ruptures tend to do that. I'm impressed over what he has done after the injury. But I'm of the opinion that you pay for what a player can do in the future, not what they have done before or overcome. I'm just not sure that he will play to a level worth $7.2M next year. I don't really think he has been $7.2M good this year. So I really hesitate to say that he will be that good when he is one year older. If it where any other player than Wilfork I would absolutely say that his not worth that much. The fact that it is Wilfork makes me hesitate.

There has been many years where Wilfork was worth that much. But I'm not so sure that he is that good any more, or will be again. I hope I'm proved wrong. But you get into trouble if you pay for what someone for their legacy and not their current play.

I agree that you don't pay for past performance. That's why I argued for cutting Wilfork last year. But you also have to live with the consequences of the contracts you sign, and consider the options.

I'd love Wilfork at a lesser cap hit. But that's not going to happen without pushing more money out to the future, something I'm personally not very keen on doing. And as others have mentioned, he already restructured once, so the alternative is cutting him.

So say you cut him and save a tidy $7M+ in cap space. Re-sign UFA Alan Branch and ERFA Sealver Siliga. And then what? Are you content with that for a big run stuffing DT? Are you ok with being 1 injury away from no run-stopping ability? Are you willing to bank on Branch suddenly being a reliable investment, for all his unquestionable talent? Is Siliga clearly taking a leap to being a starter? Are you willing to spend a high pick on a rookie and rely on them? Or is there a FA DT that you really think you can get for less money who will do a better job?

Wilfork may not be worth $7.2M in 2015. But right now I don't see a better option. I do think that you re-sign Branch and Siliga to limit VW's snaps, and draft a replacement for him who can take over in 2016. I'm open to suggestions, but unless there's a better option, just saying that he's not worth his cap hit doesn't make the team better.

 

[Ivan]

Well, I guess you decided to come back and continue in the conversation afterall. Nice little tantrum, btw.

The reason you believe that my questions are"bull" is simple...you can't answer them. You can't find any NT in the league who is being paid $7M at 34 years old and you can't find an example of the Patriots overpaying an aging veteran.

Its called having a life, I'm not on call at patfans 24-7.

Belichick doesn't play Wilfork extensively and teams don't constantly double team him because of his name, it is because of his play. And your football analysis is apparently limited to age and cost, which it's worthless imo. You wanted him gone last off-season and it would have been a huge mistake, now you simply want to double down on your stupidity.

 

[rochrist]

We have to look at these players and their cap hits next year:


Revis well worth big money but not $20m (plus $5m from last year). I'm thinking $12-14 million (plus the $5m) would be fair for a 30 year old (next season) top CB.

Wilfork will be 34 years old next season. Cutting him will result in a $6.7m savings. I can't imagine the Patriots paying him that kind of money at 34 years old. He'll have to take some sort of paycut or be traded/cut.

Amendola......95 yards receiving this season.......need anything else be said? The savings is minimal ($1.465M) but unless they feel that this season was a fluke I'm not sure how bringing Amendola back can be jusitifed.

Hoomanawanui........third tight end......cap savings over 1m.

12 million certainly isn't going to get it done. 14 maybe, more likely it will take at least 15.

 

[DaBruinz]

People commenting on the Pats not paying Wilfork because he's 34 years old should remember that we traded for Ted Washington and his $1.65M salary while Washington was 35. 1.65Million in 2003 is probably Double or triple that now.

I honestly believe that Vince falls into the same category as Brady and Bruschi. Players who have a special place in Belichick's heart and for whom Belichick won't cut..

 

[DaBruinz]

If I'm Ridley, I'm running away from the Pats. We have Blount, Vereen and Gray. He can be a 1000yd back on another team.

Vereen is a FA as well.

The Pats have Blount, Gray, and White. The Pats need Vereen back. They don't need Ridley, but I think he'd be a welcome addition because I honestly see Blount starting to ebb..