Early projection of the Patriots 2015 adjusted cap number

[Miguel]

After seeing this video
http://www.csnne.com/video_content_type/borges-not-buying-revis-returning-under-current-deal

I started to tweet to Ron Borges and Gary Tanguay about the Patriots salary cap. Gary then asked me what would be the Patriots 2015 adjusted cap number.

I then answered that
Projected 2015 Pats adjusted cap =
142m league cap (Have heard that it will be between $140m and $144m - decided to split the difference)
plus 5m rollover (A better estimate is probably $5.5m)
minus 3.75m (LTBE/NLTBE reconciliation). This is a conservative estimate as some NLTBE incentives are within reach of being earned by some players. Wilfork could earn a 500K incentive if the Pats finish in the Top 10 in points allowed and he continues to play in more than 70% of the defensive snaps. Brandon Browner has up to 1.25 million in incentives whose trigger levels are unknown. Browner played in 43.5 of the defensive snaps in 2013 for the Seahawks. He has played in 45.1% of the snaps so far in 2014. The last 4 games he has averaged 98.1%.
equals $143.25 million

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

It wouldn't make sense to bring revis back on his current deal. They won't pay him 20 or 25 mill. They will work out a long term deal if they want him back and i think that's what happens. Would revis love 20 mill...sure. But i bet he would like 45 over 3 years on a winning team much better

 

[JoeSixPat]

I never really looked at his deal as a 2 year deal

It seemed to me it was a way for the Pats to sign him to a 1 year deal that included a non-franchise tag agreement without actually setting a precedent of doing so

The Pats could (technically) either retain him at an outrageous amount - or more likely renegotiate a long term deal - or let him see what he'd fetch on the free agent market and then compete to re-sign him

Either way it struck me as a win win - a reasonable 1 year contract with a big incentive for Revis to have a great season

 

[RI Patriots fan]

We have to look at these players and their cap hits next year:


Revis well worth big money but not $20m (plus $5m from last year). I'm thinking $12-14 million (plus the $5m) would be fair for a 30 year old (next season) top CB.

Wilfork will be 34 years old next season. Cutting him will result in a $6.7m savings. I can't imagine the Patriots paying him that kind of money at 34 years old. He'll have to take some sort of paycut or be traded/cut.

Amendola......95 yards receiving this season.......need anything else be said? The savings is minimal ($1.465M) but unless they feel that this season was a fluke I'm not sure how bringing Amendola back can be jusitifed.

Hoomanawanui........third tight end......cap savings over 1m.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

I never really looked at his deal as a 2 year deal

It seemed to me it was a way for the Pats to sign him to a 1 year deal that included a non-franchise tag agreement without actually setting a precedent of doing so

The Pats could (technically) either retain him at an outrageous amount - or more likely renegotiate a long term deal - or let him see what he'd fetch on the free agent market and then compete to re-sign him

Either way it struck me as a win win - a reasonable 1 year contract with a big incentive for Revis to have a great season

IMO they can't let Revis hit FA. Have to get a deal done before that...if he hits FA greater chance he leaves

 

[RI Patriots fan]

IMO they can't let Revis hit FA. Have to get a deal done before that...if he hits FA greater chance he leaves

It's not like the Patriots are going to trigger his $20m option, so what leverage do they have on Revis?

What if Revis decides he wants to play for the highest bidder? At some point the Patriots will have no choice but to say no if that's what he wants.

If I'm Revis, I'm waiting for free agency.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

As others have pointed out, there are savings out there by making prudent roster moves. Looking at Miguel's page:
(A) It will be nice to be done with the Hernandez hang over bill. Good riddance....
(B) Mankins a 4m dead money cap hit in 2015. Ouch....
(C) Wilfork is a 7.1 million savings if cut. That's a lofty number....
(C) Mayo is a 10+ million cap hit in 2015 (and right around the same in 2016 and 2017). He's a 7.5 million savings if cut in 2016 (4.5 million savings with a hefty dead money amount if cut in 2015).

 

[Miguel]

Please note that some player's 2015 cap numbers change as they reach NLTBE incentives or do not reach LTBE incentives. Example, Hooman's 400K playing-time incentive now considered LTBE will be considered NLTBE in 2015 unless his playing-time increases greatly over the next four weeks.

 

[Miguel]

I have updated the 2015 cap page with information about Mayo's salary guarantee. $4.5 million of his 2015 salary is guaranteed for injury lessening any cap savings if he is cut while not being able to pass a physical.

 

[Rob0729]

I seriously doubt they bring him back under the current contract, but I would not be totally surprised if they did. If they think that Revis is absolutely needed and they cannot get a deal done, they might bite the bullet. I say it is about 2-3% if that.

Nice to see that Borges is making arguments based on totally wrong information again.

 

[zipster9]

We have to look at these players and their cap hits next year:


Revis well worth big money but not $20m (plus $5m from last year). I'm thinking $12-14 million (plus the $5m) would be fair for a 30 year old (next season) top CB.

Wilfork will be 34 years old next season. Cutting him will result in a $6.7m savings. I can't imagine the Patriots paying him that kind of money at 34 years old. He'll have to take some sort of paycut or be traded/cut.

Amendola......95 yards receiving this season.......need anything else be said? The savings is minimal ($1.465M) but unless they feel that this season was a fluke I'm not sure how bringing Amendola back can be jusitifed.

Hoomanawanui........third tight end......cap savings over 1m.

Patriots have a number of decisions to make in 2015.

Vereeen & Ridley is FA.

McCourty

Revis

Wilfork - restructure? He wont agree, probably

Mayo - restructure? 10.6 million agains the cap

etc...

 

[JoeSixPat]

IMO they can't let Revis hit FA. Have to get a deal done before that...if he hits FA greater chance he leaves

Ideally yes - but let's not kid ourselves. Despite "tampering" rules his agent will know exactly what his market is

Then Revis has the option of returning to a team that will get him (another hopefully Super Bowl - or opting for the money

I'm not sure how much of a discount Revis would take for a ring or if he's all about the money

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Ideally yes - but let's not kid ourselves. Despite "tampering" rules his agent will know exactly what his market is

Then Revis has the option of returning to a team that will get him (another hopefully Super Bowl - or opting for the money

I'm not sure how much of a discount Revis would take for a ring or if he's all about the money

If Pats win SB...he may leave. If they don't he definitely stays..that's if pats pay his price IMO

 

[Ivan]

We have to look at these players and their cap hits next year:


Revis well worth big money but not $20m (plus $5m from last year). I'm thinking $12-14 million (plus the $5m) would be fair for a 30 year old (next season) top CB.

Wilfork will be 34 years old next season. Cutting him will result in a $6.7m savings. I can't imagine the Patriots paying him that kind of money at 34 years old. He'll have to take some sort of paycut or be traded/cut.

Amendola......95 yards receiving this season.......need anything else be said? The savings is minimal ($1.465M) but unless they feel that this season was a fluke I'm not sure how bringing Amendola back can be jusitifed.

Hoomanawanui........third tight end......cap savings over 1m.

Cutting Wilfork to save money is crazy. Wilfork has basically returned to form and is one of the most important players on the team. If anything I would rework and extend his deal to lessen the cap hit while making sure he ends his career a Patriot. He has answered the questions about the achilles and can be a vital player for them for a few more seasons IMO.

 

[Ivan]

I expect them to get the deals done with their guys and redo Mayo and Wilfork, but they won't be players in free agency, choosing to keep their guys instead.

I also expect Ridley back.

 

[moejr]

In my eyes Revis is a must.

 

[RI Patriots fan]

Cutting Wilfork to save money is crazy. Wilfork has basically returned to form and is one of the most important players on the team. If anything I would rework and extend his deal to lessen the cap hit while making sure he ends his career a Patriot. He has answered the questions about the achilles and can be a vital player for them for a few more seasons IMO.

Wilfork has been decent this year...not spectacular. In no way, shape or form is a 34 year old Wilfork worth over $7m next year.
If you can, show me all the 34 year old NT/DTs in the NFL that are making $7M per year.

 

[supafly]

Wilfork has been decent this year...not spectacular. In no way, shape or form is a 34 year old Wilfork worth over $7m next year.
If you can, show me all the 34 year old NT/DTs in the NFL that are making $7M per year.

The problem is that thus far, we don't have anyone to replace him. Some will say Siligia, but I'm not convinced that it's enough of a viable replacement to feel very confident.

Perhaps the replacement comes by way of the draft? If so, then it could be an option. If not, I'd bite the bullet and continue to pay (or overpay) Wilfork for another year. I think you may be understating his importance to the defense. In my opinion he's playing well.

 

[RI Patriots fan]

The problem is that thus far, we don't have anyone to replace him. Some will say Siligia, but I'm not convinced that it's enough of a viable replacement to feel very confident.

Perhaps the replacement comes by way of the draft? If so, then it could be an option. If not, I'd bite the bullet and continue to pay (or overpay) Wilfork for another year. I think you may be understating his importance to the defense. In my opinion he's playing well.

Im not understating his importance at all. I agree that he has been playing decent.
But as I said previously, show me all the 34 year old DT/NTs that are making $7M a year in the NFL. Then, show me all the 34 year old players that the Patriots have overpaid.

 

[DarrylS]

If the decision will be made to release Wilfork, that will be a tough one.. and he and Mr. Kraft have a very good relationship. Mr. Kraft seldom seems to meddle in this stuff, but will he somehow get involved with that decision??.. if it is a consideration.

Mayo will restructure, he has to see the writing on the wall if he doesn't...

Amendola will get a significant restructure or he will be gone..