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Draft recap and its possible implications.


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One of the more interesting aspects of every draft is not only analyzing the players, but what every pick means to the team as a whole. In other words what we can infer from certain picks. What does it say when we choose a 2nd WR (Boyce) when a legitimate pass rusher was there in the 4th? (Okafor) Why another S in round 3?, etc. Studying a BB draft is like trying to decipher the hidden meaning in a Shakespearean sonnet ;)

1. Jamie Collins – I'm feeling a lot better about this pick, to the point of virtual excitement. This kid is Dion Jordan without the hype. A developmental pick for sure, but a kid with spectacular combine numbers backed up with solid production. He's a kid who can come in an contribute right away in a situational situations and might even star down the road

A while back I suggested that with the improvements we've made to the secondary talent, this defense will have the freedom to become much more aggressive up front, and the more I think about it, the more I see the Collins pick as being a lot more impactful than a more traditional DE. Here's how.

All last year I can't remember a time when we overloaded a side and dropped into coverage with the other Collins is the kind of rusher who can present significant problems to teams in both 3-4 and 4-3 alignments. in 4-3 sets, he can now work in combinations with both Jones and Ninkovich and just with his very presence make both of them more effective

One of the questions about him was can he put his hand in the dirt and be an impact rusher playing DE in a 4-3. I say he can.....when he grows into his body and weighs 265 and that's down the road. But I don't think he has to his rookie year. Why would he when we have an underutilized asset who has the size and position flexibility to fit exactly that 3rd down passing situation that he rarely got to play last season.

I give you Dont'a Hightower. At 270lbs and an explosive burst, I think he would very effective if the Pats were to expand his repertoire to include playing some pass rushing DE in certain packages. This will allow the Pats to use Collins more as a situational pass rusher and perhaps cover LB. So Hightower goes from being a liability in coverage to an asset as a rusher. It lowers Ninko's snap count and makes him more effective over the course of a long season....and ultimaltely addes more depth to the entire front 7. Now Collins can concentrate his rookie year at just playing OLB, both rushing and in coverage.

2. Aaron Dobson - Not exactly on my radar, but my “radar” is limited pretty much to the names that are discussed here. However from what I've gathered so far, he's pretty much everything I hoped for in a rookie WR. He's tall at 6'3, long armed, great hands, attacks the ball, can win individual battles for the ball, and has mid 4.4 speed. Maybe not as explosive as some of the other prospects, but has excellent intangibles to go along with good prior production. Whats not to like for a pick of need late in the 2nd round. None of these WR prospects came without some questions to their game. But at first look, Dobson looks as good as any of them.

3. Logan Ryan – strong physical CB with a mediocre 4.55 forty time, but OUTSTANDING quickness times in the 3 cone and shuttle. These are the stats of a solid zone defender , with quick hips. A lot will depend on how quickly and how well he learns to play press coverage. The bottom line here is we seem to have gotten a solid CB who was drafted pretty much were he was supposed to be.

4. Duran Harmon - We should be be used to this by now. Almost every year BB makes a pick that no one sees coming, but to me this one is especially troubling. Not so much because he was a reach of massive proportions, nor does the fact that we know so little about him. What concerns me is what the pick of a safety that high means.

If we chose, we can infer a lot of things. For one, the Pats are unhappy with Tavon Wilson. Though that's the opposite of what I've heard personally, you cannot avoid the implication. For another, it could mean the Pats have seen enough of Steve Gregory, and if Harmon proves he's worth the pick, and Tavon continues to develop, they can dump his hefty salary in August, or as early as after the OTA's. Or perhaps maybe they've seen enough of Nate Ebner to know that he's never going to be more than a special teamer and they need another guy to develop as a future safety, given that neither AWilson or Gregory are long term solutions at S, who might not be here after this season.

BTW – if you want to feel better about our 3rd round picks. I suggest you go to Patriots.com and listen to their post draft interviews in the audio section. Harmon's interview was very impressive, and Logan's even more so. 2 very solid kids. And the implication I get from the Pats picking a CB early in the 3rd is Dowling better stay healthy this season.


5. Josh Boyce – First I feel the need to apologize to all those people I implied were idiots for hoping the Pats would draft TWO WR's. Clearly I was wrong :eek:

On the surface this is an interesting pick. This kid isn't a “big WR” but he's no midget either at 5'11,. 195 lbs, with a 4.3 forty and an OUTSTANDING 3 cone time, excellent strength with 22 reps the BP., and the explosiveness of an 11' BJ.

Still he's not one of those guys that I read much about, but he seems to grow on you. Based on the measurables, you can't hate the pick, but still, I have to wonder about the redundancy. Just how many WR's are the Pats going to keep on this year's roster.

Its hard for me to think its gong to be more than 4 true WR's plus Slater, especially when its almost a lock that they keep 4 TE's Hernandez' hybrid nature makes keeping more than 4 overkill and takes a valuable roster spot from somewhere else. So I don't dislike the pick by any means, I just wonder if they wouldn't have been better served going with Alex Okafor there.

It could mean that by not going with Okafor, the Pats are happier with their edge rushers, now that they added Collins, than we think. That will be good news for Jake Bequette. ;) Or perhaps they already have a deal in place to bring in John Abraham, but as a seasoned vet don't feel the need to bring him in until TC starts or even a week or 2 later. Either way that would explain them not taking a shot a Okafor that deep in the draft.

6. With the Pats not drafting until the 7th round with 3 picks at 20-29, and the draft not yet into the 6th round, I'm not going to wait until its all over to discuss 3 guys who I likely have never heard of and would have nothing of interest to offer.. Suffice it say of those 3 picks, I have every reason to believe that at least ONE of them will end up becoming a significant contributor before the end of his Patriots career. There have been just too many examples to think otherwise.

I look forward to reading other draft breakdowns over the next few weeks. This part is done, let the rest of the FA period continue. There are a lot of very good football players still looking for work and we still have a lot of openings to reach that 90 man limit.
 
My only nitpick is that I think that we will keep 4 WR's plus Slater plus Edelman. We need more than Amendola, the two rookies and Edelman (our punt returner).

One of the more interesting aspects of every draft is not only analyzing the players, but what every pick means to the team as a whole. In other words what we can infer from certain picks. What does it say when we choose a 2nd WR (Boyce) when a legitimate pass rusher was there in the 4th? (Okafor) Why another S in round 3?, etc. Studying a BB draft is like trying to decipher the hidden meaning in a Shakespearean sonnet ;)

1. Jamie Collins – I'm feeling a lot better about this pick, to the point of virtual excitement. This kid is Dion Jordan without the hype. A developmental pick for sure, but a kid with spectacular combine numbers backed up with solid production. He's a kid who can come in an contribute right away in a situational situations and might even star down the road

A while back I suggested that with the improvements we've made to the secondary talent, this defense will have the freedom to become much more aggressive up front, and the more I think about it, the more I see the Collins pick as being a lot more impactful than a more traditional DE. Here's how.

All last year I can't remember a time when we overloaded a side and dropped into coverage with the other Collins is the kind of rusher who can present significant problems to teams in both 3-4 and 4-3 alignments. in 4-3 sets, he can now work in combinations with both Jones and Ninkovich and just with his very presence make both of them more effective

One of the questions about him was can he put his hand in the dirt and be an impact rusher playing DE in a 4-3. I say he can.....when he grows into his body and weighs 265 and that's down the road. But I don't think he has to his rookie year. Why would he when we have an underutilized asset who has the size and position flexibility to fit exactly that 3rd down passing situation that he rarely got to play last season.

I give you Dont'a Hightower. At 270lbs and an explosive burst, I think he would very effective if the Pats were to expand his repertoire to include playing some pass rushing DE in certain packages. This will allow the Pats to use Collins more as a situational pass rusher and perhaps cover LB. So Hightower goes from being a liability in coverage to an asset as a rusher. It lowers Ninko's snap count and makes him more effective over the course of a long season....and ultimaltely addes more depth to the entire front 7. Now Collins can concentrate his rookie year at just playing OLB, both rushing and in coverage.

2. Aaron Dobson - Not exactly on my radar, but my “radar” is limited pretty much to the names that are discussed here. However from what I've gathered so far, he's pretty much everything I hoped for in a rookie WR. He's tall at 6'3, long armed, great hands, attacks the ball, can win individual battles for the ball, and has mid 4.4 speed. Maybe not as explosive as some of the other prospects, but has excellent intangibles to go along with good prior production. Whats not to like for a pick of need late in the 2nd round. None of these WR prospects came without some questions to their game. But at first look, Dobson looks as good as any of them.

3. Logan Ryan – strong physical CB with a mediocre 4.55 forty time, but OUTSTANDING quickness times in the 3 cone and shuttle. These are the stats of a solid zone defender , with quick hips. A lot will depend on how quickly and how well he learns to play press coverage. The bottom line here is we seem to have gotten a solid CB who was drafted pretty much were he was supposed to be.

4. Duran Harmon - We should be be used to this by now. Almost every year BB makes a pick that no one sees coming, but to me this one is especially troubling. Not so much because he was a reach of massive proportions, nor does the fact that we know so little about him. What concerns me is what the pick of a safety that high means.

If we chose, we can infer a lot of things. For one, the Pats are unhappy with Tavon Wilson. Though that's the opposite of what I've heard personally, you cannot avoid the implication. For another, it could mean the Pats have seen enough of Steve Gregory, and if Harmon proves he's worth the pick, and Tavon continues to develop, they can dump his hefty salary in August, or as early as after the OTA's. Or perhaps maybe they've seen enough of Nate Ebner to know that he's never going to be more than a special teamer and they need another guy to develop as a future safety, given that neither AWilson or Gregory are long term solutions at S, who might not be here after this season.

BTW – if you want to feel better about our 3rd round picks. I suggest you go to Patriots.com and listen to their post draft interviews in the audio section. Harmon's interview was very impressive, and Logan's even more so. 2 very solid kids. And the implication I get from the Pats picking a CB early in the 3rd is Dowling better stay healthy this season.


5. Josh Boyce – First I feel the need to apologize to all those people I implied were idiots for hoping the Pats would draft TWO WR's. Clearly I was wrong :eek:

On the surface this is an interesting pick. This kid isn't a “big WR” but he's no midget either at 5'11,. 195 lbs, with a 4.3 forty and an OUTSTANDING 3 cone time, excellent strength with 22 reps the BP., and the explosiveness of an 11' BJ.

Still he's not one of those guys that I read much about, but he seems to grow on you. Based on the measurables, you can't hate the pick, but still, I have to wonder about the redundancy. Just how many WR's are the Pats going to keep on this year's roster.

Its hard for me to think its gong to be more than 4 true WR's plus Slater, especially when its almost a lock that they keep 4 TE's Hernandez' hybrid nature makes keeping more than 4 overkill and take a valuable roster spot from somewhere else. So I don't dislike the pick by any means, I just wonder if they wouldn't have been better served going with Alex Okafor there.

It could mean that by not going with Okafor, the Pats are happier with their edge rushers, now that they added Collins, than we think. That will be good news for Jake Bequette. ;) Or perhaps they already have a deal in place to bring in John Abraham, but as a seasoned vet don't feel the need to bring him in until TC starts or even a week or 2 later. Either way that would explain them not taking a shot a Okafor that deep in the draft.

6. With the Pats not drafting until the 7th round with 3 picks at 20-29, and the draft not yet into the 6th round, I'm not going to wait until its all over to discuss 3 guys who I likely have never heard of and would have nothing of interest to offer.. Suffice it say of those 3 picks, I have every reason to believe that at least ONE of them will end up becoming a significant contributor before the end of his Patriots career. There have been just too many examples to think otherwise.

I look forward to reading other draft breakdowns over the next few weeks. This part is done, let the rest of the FA period continue. There are a lot of very good football players still looking for work and we still have a lot of openings to reach that 90 man limit.
 
My only nitpick is that I think that we will keep 4 WR's plus Slater plus Edelman. We need more than Amendola, the two rookies and Edelman (our punt returner).
I don't entirely disagree, its just that with the 4 TE's, I'm worried about the impact of carrying 10 receivers on the 53. What position group do you trim that extra guy from. A lot of teams carry 6 CB's. It looks like we are going to have at least 5 Safeties, can we afford to carry 11 DB's:? A lot of questions this year and a number of good players are going to get cut. I can see us keeping only 4 true WR's because we have the luxury of having both Hernandez and Vareen able to go outside and be effective.

Its the loss of that roster spot that makes be wonder about the drafting of Boyce over, say, Okafor. Did we really NEED that 2nd rookie WR?
 
Your analysis is correct. I just don't think that you follow it through. By making the choice to draft 2 rookies, we are much more likely to carry an extra WR.

Its the loss of that roster spot that makes be wonder about the drafting of Boyce over, say, Okafor. Did we really NEED that 2nd rookie WR?
 
Your analysis is correct. I just don't think that you follow it through. By making the choice to draft 2 rookies, we are much more likely to carry an extra WR.
Oh, absolutely. You are correct, I'm just concerned (a bit) about the implications of carrying 6 WR has on the rest of the roster and its depth. Of course there is always the PS and the phantom IR that can fix things. A lot can happen between now and the first week of September that can change things drastically.
 
My thoughts...

1. Collins is probably everything they were hoping Hightower to be - a jack of all trades type - in terms of pass rush, coverage, run support, athleticism and so forth. Dont'a is an exceptional talent who does a lot of things well, but he lacks in one glaring area: coverage skills. The remodeling of the LB corps should essentially be completed now. Collins looks like the new-age Adalius Thomas. I know some folks will quiver at that thought. Hopefully he's the 2007 version and not the 2009.

Collins is the among the best athletes in this draft at any position. The kid is raw, will need a ton of coaching and so on. I think his best bet this season will be the TE/RB coverage LB and occasionally edge rusher while he improves in other areas namely strength to handle NFL OLinemen. Thus, his most impact from roster implication perspective in this scenario will be eating snaps away from [Fletcher] who now should be firmly on the roster bubble whilst recovering from his ACL injury.

2. Dobson as a prospect has a lot of 'wow' factor. Big, strong, physical, tough. The last part intrigues me the most because he could be a significant upgrade on the soft and mercurial Brandon Lloyd due to it. The Patriots needed to upgrade the physicality on the outside and probably aren't asking Dobson to have the production and numbers that Lloyd had but to be more of an impactful player on the outside and perimeter in their offense (and not fall down after every reception). He has enough speed and jump ball ability to force safety attention over the top and roll coverages away from the TEs and Amendola while also being a factor in the red/money area because of his size. Something Lloyd obviously could not do. I'm not expecting much out of him by way of numbers this season beyond maybe 40-50 catches for 500-600 yards and 4-6 TDs. If he greatly outproduces those numbers then the Patriots obviously hit the jackpot.

Dobson has the potential to make an immediate impact in their offense this season, even if it isn't a huge numerical one. He should be their undisputed starting outside receiver by opening day, if not earlier. Camp fodder like Michael Jenkins may not even make it past camp now. His are numbered, if they weren't already.

3. Ryan looks like a cross between Arrington and McCourty. If he's starting on the outside this season the Patriots are in huge trouble. He's easily burnable on the outside in isolation just like Arrington. His best bet to make the roster and having an impact is as a slot corner back up to Arrington and core special teamer. He's got the quickness and COD to be decent in that role. His drafting probably signals the end to Marquice Cole's time on the team, as it should.

4. Harmon is a core special teamer and back up safety. Nothing more, nothing less. It's just that simple. Of course you want a 3rd rounder to be make a bigger contribution potentially, but the value of special teams is highly regarded. This is an area that needs to be improved. 3 of 5 losses last season that happened had distinct and memorable ST gaffes, One against the Cardinals, and also the 49ers game with LaMichael James' momentum swinging kick return that changed everything. And, lastly, against the Ravens in the AFCCG. Hopefully adding another specialist improves that area.

Harmon's arrival could be viewed in many different prisms. It could be mean they're not sold on T. Wilson or Gregory's time with the team has just about expired, or even that Ebner will never amount to anything as a safety. All three of these are very, very realistic possibilities, but it might most likely be the second view, in all likelihood. It could be all 3 for all we know.

5. Boyce, is less of an enigma to me than to others. He has the smarts to probably excel in this offense as a third receiver in Branch's vacated role. He also has great strength (22 reps at 2 and a quarter) to beat press coverage and good speed in the open field to be a playmaker, something this offense has lacked at that third receiver spot for about 5 years. The only two issues I have with him are his drops, which shows a lack of concentration and that he doesn't play up to his fast 40 time on tape.

Despite all this, I may be going out on an limb here, but I think he may ultimately be the best draft pick out of these bunch in the immediate future. The role he's likely being given is already defined and is perfectly catered towards his skill-set. He has some versatility in that he can play inside and outside and so forth. He should see a lot of single coverage and based the way teams defend the Patriots, a lot of below average corners on him as well. He should easily be a significant upgrade on Deion Branch. Don't surprised if he outshines Dobson numerically.

Last but not least, going into the draft I said the Patriots needed an upgrade to Coverage LB. Collins should fill that role for now. Double down on WRs with size, speed, physicality, and most important of all, smarts. Dobson and Boyce seemingly fit this bill. A slot corner back up to Arrington who would also be a core special teamer. Logan Ryan is all these things. And also, C/G depth which can be acquired in the later rounds and UDFA pool. Finally, a back up safety to McCourty who would push Gregory off the roster and could be a core special teamer. It remains to be seen whether Harmon can be that guy but so far they've done everything in the draft that I thought they should.

I originally had them down as a C+ grade after yesterday's knee jerk reaction period but it could easily be B+ to A- now after further examination. I'll wait to give my final post-draft grade after the draft is over but so far I don't see how many people could be disappointed with improving depth given the nature of this draft's lack of talented immediate starters.
 
Oh, absolutely. You are correct, I'm just concerned (a bit) about the implications of carrying 6 WR has on the rest of the roster and its depth. Of course there is always the PS and the phantom IR that can fix things. A lot can happen between now and the first week of September that can change things drastically.

I have it on good authority that one of our WR draft picks has a nagging injury problem that will sideline him toward the end of camp, may sideline him for the 2013 season, yet he will be 100% for 2014 camp.
It's a miracle of modern day diagnosis and preventative medicine......
 
My only nitpick is that I think that we will keep 4 WR's plus Slater plus Edelman. We need more than Amendola, the two rookies and Edelman (our punt returner).

It wouldn't shock me if this team's WR5 (and/or WR4, for that matter) isn't even on the roster yet.
 
Great post, overall, but on the WR question you have to draft 2 for a great many reasons. Donald Jones is an inside guy, and was not very well regarded. You can't really have faith that he can be any more than depth. Amendola is also inside and he also gets hurt a lot. Edelman ditto. Dobson might be a bust. Jenkins will be cut in the summer. You needed at least one more guy.

I may be missing someone, but as is, not counting Slater, I see 5 WRs.

Essentially, the Patriots have 5 question marks at WR.
 
I may be missing someone, but as is, not counting Slater, I see 5 WRs.

Essentially, the Patriots have 5 question marks at WR.
The WR corps could probably be (in order of the targets totem pole):

1. Danny Amendola
2. Aaron Dobson
3. Josh Boyce
4. Julian Edelman
5. Donald Jones/Veteran JAG if Jones fails to impress or no one altogether

With Slater as the special teamer/bottom-depth chart WR designation.

I think its possible the true 5th WR role could be made expendable entirely. The only reason why Jones could factor into the roster spot is because he can play special teams. It's what would give him a leg up in any camp competition against veterans like say, Branch or Stallworth and Jenkins. It can also be expendable because of Hernandez, especially if he splits out wide like he often has in the past. Jones is no lock to make the team and neither is Edelman to the surprise of some. His contract makes it clear that he will have to earn his spot on the team and stay healthy and produce to ever see the full compensation of it. It will be interesting to see how it all shapes up.
 
Now that the Pats section of the 7th round has been completed, I thought I'd update the final 2 picks. Both of whom IMHO are better than we have the right to expect.

Micheal Buchanan - Based on his draft profile was someone you would have thought would have gone a round or 2 earlier. I doubt the Pats were looking for another DE/OLB, but probably could pass up the value when they saw him still available. The thing that stood out to me was his sub 7 second 3 cone time. That is freakin' outstanding for a guy who is 6'5. His 4.7 forty is mediocre, but very good for player at this point in the draft. His 22 BP's shows he needs another year to get stronger. All in all, great length and speed, great quickness, decent college production. One of his strengths is setting the edge. It could be with Collins and Buchanan, we might be just a year away from returning to a 3-4 base

Steve Beauharnais - I know taking ANOTHER Rutgers kid will rub people the wrong way, but he had very good college production, was called by someone one of the best tacklers in the draft, and has some decent measurables - His 4.8 forty time is mediocre, but it matches my time from back in the day when I was SS. It is also a lot better than Spikes, who manages to be an asset against the run. What sets this kid apart is when you check his draft profile and see that ALL 3 of his quickness drills are off the charts for his position. IMHO, only is size is an issue, In the end I think the Pats will want to keep this kid around, most likely on PS, and next year, after adding 10-15 lbs of muscle he could be an adequate replacement as a run stopping ILB.

All in all it wasn't a spectacular draft. There are certainly teams you can say improved their teams more, or had "better" drafts than the pats. But despite starting out with only 5 picks, the Pats managed to come away with 7 players, most of whom will improve the overall roster.
 
2 WRs in this draft is fine IMO. Dobson will be a week one starter IMO (at least i hope he is)

I also think that lloyd is coming back..call me crazy but i think he will be back.


And Buchanan could have been a 2nd or 3rd rounder if he didn't drop 20 lbs from having his jaw wired shut. After '11 some were thinking he would have easily been a 1st rounder. Could be a steal. lets hope
 
OP forgot the trade of a 7th rounder and Demps for LeGarrette Blount which adds spice to the backfield with Woodhead gone.

This could be the biggest impact selection of this draft. Or the least.
 
2 WRs in this draft is fine IMO. Dobson will be a week one starter IMO (at least i hope he is)

I also think that lloyd is coming back..call me crazy but i think he will be back.
OK, I'll call you crazy. IMO drafting 2 WRs closes the door on Lloyd coming back. The Pats have nice young group of physically talented WRs all in their mid 20's and younger. That are a lot faster and physically stronger than who they've had recently. The only real questions in my mind are whether they stay on the field, and how fast all the new players (and that's most of them) can learn the offense. I LIKE our WR group now...on paper. All that awaits is to see if that talent translates on the field in production.
 
OK, I'll call you crazy. IMO drafting 2 WRs closes the door on Lloyd coming back. The Pats have nice young group of physically talented WRs all in their mid 20's and younger. That are a lot faster and physically stronger than who they've had recently. The only real questions in my mind are whether they stay on the field, and how fast all the new players (and that's most of them) can learn the offense. I LIKE our WR group now...on paper. All that awaits is to see if that talent translates on the field in production.

I like Amendola, Edelman and the 2 rookies...jenkins and jones...no thanks
 
Wonder if we going back to 3-4 this year.. 2x OLB there infact can rush + another ILB.
 
I have it on good authority that one of our WR draft picks has a nagging injury problem that will sideline him toward the end of camp, may sideline him for the 2013 season, yet he will be 100% for 2014 camp.
It's a miracle of modern day diagnosis and preventative medicine......

Yeah, like all of those other "red-shirt" rookies they "stashed" after seemingly healthy camps on crowded rosters, only to have them come back and make the team the next year! Like...umm....like...oh, I know, Oscar Lua! No wait, I mean Bo Ruud -- or rather, Markell Carter. No? Hold on, I'll think of one....

this has been a public service announcement from the "there's no such thing as stashing" committee. yes, i'll shut up now.
 
I don't entirely disagree, its just that with the 4 TE's, I'm worried about the impact of carrying 10 receivers on the 53. What position group do you trim that extra guy from. A lot of teams carry 6 CB's. It looks like we are going to have at least 5 Safeties, can we afford to carry 11 DB's:? A lot of questions this year and a number of good players are going to get cut. I can see us keeping only 4 true WR's because we have the luxury of having both Hernandez and Vareen able to go outside and be effective.

Its the loss of that roster spot that makes be wonder about the drafting of Boyce over, say, Okafor. Did we really NEED that 2nd rookie WR?

I think we carry 6 receivers. Slater's not a receiver. 5 at a minimum. Consider that Edelman is the only 'veteran' receiver on this ballclub. And Amendola is the only lock for a position. The job is WIDE OPEN for competition. The more the merrier I say.

Vereen is going to take over the 3rd down back roles, but don't fool yourself, he's still not a wideout and neither is Hernandez. Hernandez is more of our flex TE/H-back/line up wherever you can get a defensive mismatch nightmare guy.

I'm surprised we didn't dip into the TE market. But maybe the talent was top heavy in this year's draft and very thin after the top two rounds. Plus we do have Ballard and Hooman as depth.
 
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