Donaldson: Don't expect much improvement from the Patriots defense

[VJCPatriot]

The Pats pass defense was BAD in 2008. Particularly on 3rd downs, which are the most important downs in football, because those are drive killers. Why do you think BB essentially 'FIRED' all the starters on last year's secondary then went and got Springs, Bodden, and Butler? I expect the Pats secondary to be vastly improved in 2009. Sometimes it doesn't matter how good a scheme you have if the personnel can't execute it.

 

[eom]

if they have all the injuries this year that they had last year, I expect you'll see about the same results.

maybe a little better.....

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Yup

I guess if we get a better DVOA than our opponents, we win the Super Bowl

Hey, hoist the Lombardi, our DVOA is -23.6%

I have no problem with stats. However, to suggest low points allowed is "misleading" or "asinine" is welllll............

 

[BradyFTW!]

Right, because Fernando Bryant proves that BB never pulls in a dud during the free agency, and 8 games is exactly how many an NFL team plays in a season. Come on.

I never claimed that. I said that, even if Springs is a dud and only plays half the season, our CB depth is so much better that we'll STILL be better off than we were in 2008.

He stunk last season. I'm not sure how this is a tough one to follow. The last year he played, he did such a poor job that the worst team in football didn't feel he was worth keeping around for a deal they'd agreed to at the beginning of that very same season.

There are a lot of reasons why a player could stink. Could be that the Lions had a terrible pass rush. Could be because there weren't a whole lot of obvious throwing situations when teams were constantly ahead by large margins. Could be because they were playing in a cover 2 and Bodden is not a cover 2 corner. There's a reason why Belichick was one of multiple coaches who wanted Bodden, and there's a reason why Bodden chose to take a one year deal- everyone who has any idea what kind of a player he really is knows that, barring injury, his value's only going to rise.

And there's no reason not to wonder if a.) he'll get hurt again and b.) the lost time means that he'll struggle to step it up this year due to the loss of possible experience.

Anyone could get hurt at any time. Do you have any actual reason to believe that his wrist is more likely to break, or are you just grasping at straws?

Ummm.... How is it that he just has to be better than O'Neal when he was the STARTER at the end of the season? How does that make even a sliver of sense? He's the one setting the bar for the #2 CB. I grant that such a fact means that the bar is pretty low, but it IS the bar.

He wasn't until the end of the season but fine, let's have it your way. As long as Wilhite isn't starting, we can safely say that the CBs are better off.

Great. Do we put that draftee into the Hall Of Fame today and save everyone the trouble, or do we admit that the jury's got to be still out on the guy?

Of course the jury's still out on the guy. Never claimed that it wasn't. Rhetorically charged straw man arguments seem to be all that you can muster, though, so it's not really a surprise that you'd resort to it.

And there's plenty of historical precedent for it not happening. However, they DID have it last year. There was a 3 man safety group which included Rodney Harrison. You may have heard of him. He's the one who got injured, which is kind of the point. When he went down, the team had a viable fill in.

Let me rephrase this: we didn't have Rodney last year. He played all of 6 and a half games before being IRed. Since you're so fond of arbitrarily shifting the timeline to suit your senseless argument, though, let's have it your way.

Last year we went into the year with a 35-year-old safety who had ended 2 of his previous 3 seasons on the IR. This year we go into the season with two 25-and-under players with no injury history to speak of. This year, we have replaced this 35 year old safety who had ended 2 of his previous 3 seasons on the IR with the 34th overall pick in the draft- an exceptional talent with off-the-charts intelligence and work ethic, who could very well be starting by midseason. A talented, hardworking, intelligent rookie is an upgrade over 6 and a half weeks of a shell of Rodney Harrison.

This has nothing to do with whether or not the DBs will be better this year than last. Nothing at all.

You said that rookie DBs historically have trouble contributing to the Pats' D. I proved you wrong, with multiple examples as evidence. If you don't want your point to be proven wrong, don't make it in the first place.

 

[Synovia]

Yup

I guess if we get a better DVOA than our opponents, we win the Super Bowl

Hey, hoist the Lombardi, our DVOA is -23.6%

I have no problem with stats. However, to suggest low points allowed is "misleading" or "asinine" is welllll............

Points allowed is definitely misleading when we're talking about defensive quality.

When Brett Favre throws one of his 25 picks a year, and the opposing defense runs it back to the 5, do you really think the fact that the defense holds the opponent to a fieldgoal is a bad thing? Do you think those points are the defenses fault, or the offenses?


The 2007 Steelers gave up 16.8 PPg.

The 2007 Patriots gave up 17.1


Do you really think the 2007 Pats defense was as good as the steelers defense?

 

[BradyFTW!]

Yup

I guess if we get a better DVOA than our opponents, we win the Super Bowl

Hey, hoist the Lombardi, our DVOA is -23.6%

I have no problem with stats. However, to suggest low points allowed is "misleading" or "asinine" is welllll............

If we have the best DVOA in the league, then it's extremely likely that we will win the SB. No statistic guarantees a SB, obviously: they're observational, they don't cause anything. DVOA, though, is a far better measure of how good a D is than whatever yardage-based or points-based metric you can come up with. You think Belichick and particularly Ernie Adams aren't all over this stuff?

Nobody's trying to claim that games can be played on a calculator, or whatever other random image you people like to conjure up for fun. It's just a statement that more complex statistics, like DVOA, are far more accurate and descriptive than ones that are based on a single variable that can be influenced by any number of other variables.

 

[TruthSeeker]

I read the whole thread before I jumped into it.

Let's look at what we had going into 2008 on defense:

- Seymour, Wilfork, Warren, Green, Wright and Smith at DL, with Seymour coming off of a poor and injury-ridden 2007. We have the same group in 2008 PLUS Ron Brace PLUS Seymour coming off a solid 2008 PLUS Seymour and Green in contract years, which generally translates to peak performance. I'd say the DL has been upgraded, and our run defense in particular should be upgraded.

- ILB a big question mark with highly touted but unkown Jerod Mayo and Guyton as a UFDA. It wasn't clear that we wouldn't have to play an aging Vrabel or Adalius Thomas at ILB along with Bruschi as starters, or bring back Junior Seau. At OLB we had either Thomas or Vrabel, plus 2 rookies (Crable and Redd) and an unproven Woods. Woods now has some starting experience under his belt, and Crable and Redd can only benefit from a year under their belt, and Thomas is firmly entrenched at OLB. We've lost Vrabel, but he really wasn't a major factor last year. Mayo is a potential pro-bowler at ILB, Guyton is a solid player who may be ready to make a major leap, McKenzie is a gifted young player, and Alexander and Bruschi are back. I'd say we're slightly improved, but certainly no worse off.

- Safety had Meriweather going into his 2nd year being labelled a possible bust by many, with Sanders in his contract year and Harrison injury prone and slowing. Tank Williams went on IR early in training camp. Now we have Meriweather showing signs of being anywhere from a solid starter to a future pro bowler, Sanders resigned, Williams back, Springs as an upgrade from Lewis Sanders, and a bright young rookie in Chung. I'd say we're better off.

- CB was a huge hole with the loss of Samuel. We signed 2 FAs only to cut them in TC and sign Deltha O'Neal as a stop-gap, which he wasn't. Hobbs was OK but not great. Wheatley and Wilhite were rookies, and showed flashes. Now they have a year of experience. We've signed 2 FAs with much better physical ability and history than last year. And we drafted probably the most talented DB in BB's tenure with the team. I think we should be better.

That's my rose-colored view.

A nice assessment. I particularly appreciate how you actually look back at the previous year to compare with this year.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

FTW

Do you agree that giving up fewer points means a better chance for success?

A defense that gives up few points is better than a defense that gives up more points is better?

 

[Deus Irae]

You said that rookie DBs historically have trouble contributing to the Pats' D. I proved you wrong, with multiple examples as evidence. If you don't want your point to be proven wrong, don't make it in the first place.

No, what I said was:

Butler and Chung are rookie DBs, and we've seen the Patriots' rookie DBs have their difficulties in the past few years.

Are you seriously going to try claiming that's not true?


Nevermind, I'm done with this. It's just a waste of time if you're going to argue against something as obvious as this.

 

[Synovia]

Do you agree that giving up fewer points means a better chance for success?

Of course, but the defense is only about 50% of what determines how many points you give up.

A defense that gives up few points is better than a defense that gives up more points is better?

Not necessarily. Atlanta's defense was terrible last year, but was 11th in points allowed. Similar to the Patriots. Why? Because their offense gave them a ton of field to defend.

Tampa's defense was MUCH better than either one, yet they were 10th in points allowed. Why? Because they were always starting with their back to the goal line because their defense was terrible.

 

[Synovia]

Of course, but the defense is only about 50% of what determines how many points you give up.

Actually, let me change that, because its ot accurate.

Defense determines 40% of the points you give up, offense another 40%, and special teams 20%.

 

[eom]

hmmmm....I'm going out on a limb on this one, but I'll say defense contributes more to points allowed than offense.

 

[Pats67]

It's just too soon to tell at at this point.

Now we're getting somewhere.

I do think its important to note again than Jim Donaldson wrote this column. Jim Donaldson.

 

[SunnyDenmark]

WOW - all it takes is one hack article which basically say alot of "could be's" - and then this whole fan base turns on itself like carnivours. Are we not sure that Donaldson might be a Colts 'plant'?

Did someone piss in anyones eggnog last Xmas? Or just get dumped or what?

1) TB is coming back, along with Fred and Joey and Moss rainbows again
2) all the grey-hairs on defense are now either A) gone, or B) relegated to part-time roles.
3) the weakness of the team in 2008: (Ie. defense - in case someone named Rip Van has just crawled out from a cave) has been targeted heavily in both FA and the draft.
4) BB is still the Jedi Hoodie master

and these are YOUR Patriots and not your Grandfathers Patriots.

Sure, anything could happen - things COULD actually get worse - it IS a mathematical possibility. Brady might miss his newlywed bride so much that he looses focus and gets homesick. IT COULD HAPPEN! (Then again, an asteroid COULD also happen and smash into the RAZOR and Pats be forced to play all home games at Giants stadium throwing off the teams mojo).

But I tell you what friends - from what many others have already (rationally) posted on this thread already - I feel pretty damn better at this point in time (post draft) than I did in May 2008.

Don't worry - be HAPPY! :singing:

 

[SunnyDenmark]

WOW - all it takes is one hack article which basically say alot of "could be's" - and then this whole fan base turns on itself like carnivours. Are we not sure that Donaldson might be a Colts 'plant'?

Did someone piss in anyones eggnog last Xmas? Or just get dumped or what?

1) TB is coming back, along with Fred and Joey and Moss rainbows again
2) all the grey-hairs on defense are now either A) gone, or B) relegated to part-time roles.
3) the weakness of the team in 2008: (Ie. defense - in case someone named Rip Van has just crawled out from a cave) has been targeted heavily in both FA and the draft.
4) BB is still the Jedi Hoodie master

and these are YOUR Patriots and not your Grandfathers Patriots.

Sure, anything could happen - things COULD actually get worse - it IS a mathematical possibility. Brady might miss his newlywed bride so much that he looses focus and gets homesick. IT COULD HAPPEN! (Then again, an asteroid COULD also happen and smash into the RAZOR and Pats be forced to play all home games at Giants stadium throwing off the teams mojo).

But I tell you what friends - from what many others have already (rationally) posted on this thread already - I feel pretty damn better at this point in time (post draft) than I did in May 2008.

Don't worry - be HAPPY! :singing:

Awe screw it. Who am I trying to kid? That asteroid is sure to be hitting SOON and we will NEVER even get to play the 2009 season.

RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!!!

 

[APatrioticVirginian]

worst article ever

 

[BradyFTW!]

FTW

Do you agree that giving up fewer points means a better chance for success?

A defense that gives up few points is better than a defense that gives up more points is better?

On the first point, yes. On the second point, not necessarily. It's a good starting point, but how many points a defense gives up is dependent on a huge number of variables that are independent of the actual quality of the defense, including strength of schedule, time of possession, playing from ahead vs. behind, offensive turnovers, field position yielded by ST, etc.

 

[BradyFTW!]

No, what I said was:



Are you seriously going to try claiming that's not true?


Nevermind, I'm done with this. It's just a waste of time if you're going to argue against something as obvious as this.

Yeah, I will claim that. We have won multiple SBs with rookies starting in the secondary. They're obviously not at the top of their game yet, but it's not a fatal flaw to the defense to have rookies filling in the depth chart as backups in your defense.

 

[SammyBlueCat]

From what I can gather, Chung & Butler will be the real deal. They may be the only draftees that will earn significant playing time their fist year.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Jim Donaldson: Don’t expect big improvement from the Patriots’ defense | New England Patriots | projo.com | The Providence Journal

Jim thinks this team must carry on Brady's shoulder to win games and get to the playoffs

Apparently,He has no faith in this defense being able to keep opposing teams from scoring in bunches.

A bit premature IMO until we see what the new vets and rookies have in them,I do hold out hope the defense will be better,at least in the secondary.

He is partially correct, if uninformative. It is hard to move up from a Top Ten/Top Eight position, that the Pats had last season depending on whether you want to count Total Yards or Points Allowed in your rating. Just like the Red Zone stats are ridiculous. Yes the % scoring TDs was high but the number of appearances in the Red Zone was was a league low. IOW, we usually stopped them before they got into the Red Zone, playing bend don't break.

But these newcomers won't stay raw rookies forever. Belichick has a knack for bringing them along slowly, and his Pats Teams are better at the end of the season than at the beginning.