Donaldson: Don't expect much improvement from the Patriots defense

[AzPatsFan]

The defense should be in a somewhat of a transition since so many of players are not around and more leave every year.

Anyone who thinks this defense will be a top 5 one in 2009 is grasping at straws and needs a reality check

If this defense is anything, it will be decent or not very good .. I would say it won't be great nor will it be horrible,I am guessing this early that it will be ranked about 14th-16th in the league as a whole when the season is over.

You really cant expect more or less until we see action in play

I do think the team will struggle to win in low scoring games and thats where top notch defenses help out - I think we can win most high scoring shootout games with Brady back.

I kind of agree with Deus who is not as high up or confident on this defense as some of you are - patience is the best medicine right now

And I ask why this edition won't be better than last season? Last season the team did not NOT allow "scoring in bunches". It was the Top Ten by Total Yards and Top Eight by Points Allowed.

With an even more potent Offense, and some good additions to the Defensive personnel, as well as more experience for Meriwhether, Mayo, Guyton, Wheately and Wihite, Woods and Crabel, I see no reason that they wont't be at least the same, as that injury riddled edition from last year.

 

[AzPatsFan]

All of which are completely assinine stats. Passing defense YPG correlates better to OFFENSIVE quality than it does defensive. Why? You score points, teams throw a lot. Running Defense is the same thing: you get behind, teams put up lots of running yards. Defensive PPG correlates almost as strongly to offense as it does to defense.

DVOA, had the Patriots at 20th Overall, with 8.9%. The 10th team in the league was Carolina at 1.3, and the best team in the league was Pitt at -26.4%.


The pats splits were as follows: Pass (21.7% - terrible, 27th), Run (-4.7%, good, 10th). Now, the Patriots defense was trending towards better for most of the second half of the year, which generally leads to teams being better the next year, so thats a positive.

They were worse on 3rd down than any other down, another indicator for improvement. (teams that are worse on third down than other downs tend to have 3rd down regress to the level of other downs)


Now, I'm of the oppinion that the pats defense was much better in week 17 than it was in week 12, but they certainly weren't top 10 in quality for the season.

But that is what the year's tally was. It is was it was....

 

[mcgraw_wv]

The defense will be statistically better simply becuase of the offense.

I do not feel the Defense got better on 3rd downs as compared to last year. No added player, no draft player improved our ability to stop a 3rd and long or 4th and long in crunch time, sure we could stop it.

They haven't added anyone that can pressure the QB and all last year the opposing QB had all day every day to throw.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

You mean the Steeler defense that got lit up by a 9-7 Cardinals team and was saved by a horrid Cardinal defense from being tagged as having allowed a historic collapse?

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Here's another reason to 'have faith' in the 2009 defense. I've been more critical of BB's past draft selections than many, particularly those in the 2nd round. But relatively speaking, he had relatively little time to observe and analyze players before drafting them. In marked contrast, once a player gets to camp, gets on the field and appears in games the information on his performance rises exponentially. Therefore, we can say that BB knows a lot about last year's rookie LB corps and the DBs. The odds of him having an accurate read on their capabilities for the 2009 D are greatly increased. Sure, he's human, still capable of pulling a Beisel or two but in the aggregate he has far more information to base his personell decisions and consequent moves.

In addition, this April he drafted in a target rich environment (see other thread on value of picks >35th or so) and had lots of shots. It's reasonable to assume he got much of what he felt he needed.

I'm very interested to see how the 2nd year players have progressed and to see if there's any 2nd half of the season substantive backups or starters in this year's draft.

 

[State]

And Ron Brace gives us to big bodies at DT for the first time since 2003, when we had the best defense in the BB tenure. I think that will be key.

***I agree. We have more flexibility to move Wolfork around, giving OL's fits. Expect to see more 4-3, too.

3. Our secondary should be the best since 2003. I think Bodden and Butler will end up our starting CBs by mid season, with Springs playing significant time at both FS and CB, and Wheatley/Wilhite as the nickel. I think Chung will be a quick learner and will push JS by the end of the season. I think that better coverage in the secondary will allow Meriweather to roam more and be more of a playmaker. We are a world removed from needing to bring Deltha O'Neal because we had no one at starting CB.

***All good points. Chung is a younger Harrison. He's the big-impact player on defense we've been waiting for.

4. Seymour, Wilfork, and Green are in contract years. Players in those years generally go all out.

***They're going to go all Kenneth Simms on us?

5. I think McKenzie/Guyton will be a terrific combo oposite Mayo by the end of the year. I think Woods is underrated and Crable has big time potential that will emerge over the season. And I don't think BB is done with the OLB position.

***I think Woods is overrated. I've never forgiven him for allowing the Giants 175 LB RB to strip him of the fumble recovery. Crable, OTOH, has the tools to rush the passer. This is his year. He's like a redshirt freshman. I also completely agree with you on Guyton and McKenzie, the latter whom always produced where ever he went. Expect him to be a big surprise. But we're just armchair goofballs, here.

My two cents

 

[Ring 6]

Compared to last year we have 'added'
Warren healty (hopefully)
Brace potentially for depth
Woods for a full year
Mayo and Guyton having a year experience
TBC
Wheatley for full year
Wlihite in year 2
Springs
Chang
Bodden
Butler
AD for a full year hopefully

All of our additions and all of our subtractions were BY CHOICE. We did not lose a player we wished to keep. We believe that we have upgraded at every spot of roster turnover.
Why wouldn't the defense be improved? Why wouldnt a defense that has theoretically upgraded many roster spots, that will be the other half of a Tom Brady team instead of a Matt Cassel team, be better than a year before?

Its easy to look ON PAPER and try to compare player to player and not find any new Hall of Famers and conclude we must not be better because we didn't add Hall of Famers.
Here is the most important thing to consider when assessing a media article:
99% of the time, the media considers adding NAME players as a positive and not adding NAME players as a negative.
Teams that go out and sign big money free agents get positive reports from the media.
Now take a look at who wins Super Bowls. The last 6 SBs have been won by NE,Pitt,Indy and the Giants and those 4 teams are quite possibly the 4 LEAST likely to sign a big name player.

 

[TruthSeeker]

Just like the Red Zone stats are ridiculous. Yes the % scoring TDs was high but the number of appearances in the Red Zone was was a league low. IOW, we usually stopped them before they got into the Red Zone, playing bend don't break.

Actually, that is called playing break but don't bend.

 

[Sicilian]

Actually, that is called playing break but don't bend.

Eh, it's kind of neither. Break but don't bend would be giving up a lot of 70 yard TD plays. No red zone, just scoring.

Bend but don't break would be teams marching all the way down, then getting stalled in the red zone.

What the Patriots were were feast or famine. We could get them off the field on a three and out or on the second set of downs fairly regularly. but once they got a first down or two? You knew we were going to give up 7.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Why were we bad last year?
AD-broken arm
Woods-broken jaw
Crable-IRed shin
Harrison-quad
Tank Williams-IRed
Wheatley- broken wrist
Hobbs-played injured
Rudd or Redd-one was IRed IIRC
How the h*** can anyone say we won't have a better pass rush next year, even if we don't sign anyone new?

Don't try to use logic. The posters here don't want logic.

No one here seems to recognize that there is a difference between ROLB and LOLB. We already have the big pass rushing ROLB in AD Thomas, who went on IR last year for the unknowing. We have a strongside LOLB in Pierre Woods, who also went on IR.

Historically the LOLB doesn't get very many sacks. Vrabel only had one year in double digits. He usually averaged half dozen a year. In Woods three starts, and 2.5 games, he accumulated 1 sack. Projected over a season, that would be 6.5 sacks for Woods, over the season. Just about the same as Vrabel usually did.

Everybody forgets that Jason Taylor got into an argument over the Tuna's wish that he switch to play LOLB, so they could get Porter on the field too. If Jason Taylor comes to NE, he and AD would be rotating to play ROLB. Taylor might not come for that very reason. What is the benefit? Crabel and Redd and TBC provide depth and provide a blow for AD, and Woods.

 

[Bertil]

I like it when the local scribes cooperate with BB and provide inflammatory bulletin board material to help motivate the team! Thanks ProJo and Jim Donaldson.

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

As huge hater of the Pats defense last year, even I think the defense should improve this season. In fact, the secondary alone should make a difference. This guy must be desperate for readers.

 

[State]

I agree with the last poster. The defense could use some improvement at linebacker, but I think defensive secondary should be much improved over last year's.

Has Donaldson stopped to think about the rookies coming in and the veteran free agents? I know last year's free agents were a big disappointment, but I'm nonetheless hopeful.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

Donaldson's been around awhile and doesnt get much attention, this may be his attempt at getting some attention. I stopped reading and listening to him years ago, he's out there on a lot of things and probably explains why he's not as well known as some other writers.

 

[Deus Irae]

Bump


for year end evaluation

 

[miDeuce]

Pretty dead on, especially when you factor in Tedy's retirement and the Seymour trade. Hopefully this offseason brings some playmaking additions.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

It's not where we need it to be but it's younger and better than it was in '08. Just need to add a DE/OLB to rush the passer and perhaps another ILB. Plenty of picks and cap space to work with.

 

[PowerRunRevival]

Pretty dead on, especially when you factor in Tedy's retirement and the Seymour trade. Hopefully this offseason brings some playmaking additions.

Our defense was most certainly better than the year before. Our cornerbacks were absolutely awful last year. Look at the points allowed this season.

The problem is our defense didn't take a big enough step forward to cover for an offense that didn't produce in the way they have in the past.

I believe we got better from last year to this year and we will be even better next year.

 

[miDeuce]

Our defense was most certainly better than the year before. .

I think the only better thing about '09 defense was that a lot of young players got good experience. Problems getting off the field on 3rd down, lack of pass rush remained from 08 to 09, then add in the inability to close out games and lost leads...

I asked myself this: you're up by 10 on the Colts going into the 4th quarter. Would you rather put out the 09 Pats D or the 08 Pats D?

Personally I'd have to say '08 just based on believing Rodney/Tedy/Seymour/Vrabel would have the experience and leadership to hold the lead.

 

[captain stone]

It's not where we need it to be but it's younger and better than it was in '08. Just need to add a couple of DE/OLB to rush the passer and definitely another ILB. Plenty of picks and cap space to work with.

Fixed it for ya.