Donaldson: Don't expect much improvement from the Patriots defense

[Gwedd]

Jim Donaldson: Don’t expect big improvement from the Patriots’ defense | New England Patriots | projo.com | The Providence Journal

Jim thinks this team must carry on Brady's shoulder to win games and get to the playoffs

Apparently,He has no faith in this defense being able to keep opposing teams from scoring in bunches.

Bwhahahahahahahaha!!!!!!!

 

[mayoclinic]

I would like a pair of your rose-colored glasses.

Bruschi and Woods will start. Isn't that an awesome pair that strikes fear into offenses?

Even without injuries, our backup linebackers include Guyton, McKenzie, Banta-Cain, Crable and Redd. How does this group give anyone comfort?

In the end, the best we can say about the linebackers is that this group is among our worst units and that it is in transition.

I would like your crystal ball.

There's always questions about every team. 2 years ago the Steelers let Joey Porter go at LB and replaced him with unproven UDFA James Harrison, who has since made 2 pro bowls and been DPOY and won a superbowl. They evidently knew what they were doing.

I assume BB knows what he's doing. He's the best in the business. If he's happy with the LB corps, then I assume the LB corps will be at least adequate. There's no doubt about Mayo and Thomas. Presumably BB has figured out that Bruschi is aging and slow and isn't getting faster, and that the defense suffered from a lack of pass rush - it seems within the scope of his mental capacities. He's spoken multiple times about wanting to get younger and faster of defense.

Of course the LB corps is in transition. The roster is in transition every year, with the salary cap. I don't know who will start - possibly Bruschi and Woods, but I only have rose colored glasses, not your crystal ball view into the future. But I'm willing to bet the defense will be markedly improved over 2005-2008.

 

[Deus Irae]

Mayo, Guyton, and A.Thomas all played well last year IMO. I understand that Woods/TBC is a bit of a question at OLB to replace Vrabel, but overall I would be more worried about how the young guys do as backups and when subbing then I am worried about the actual starters. Bruschi is the lone "seasoned" backup in that group.

You admit that "Woods/TBC is a bit of a question". Now, just admit that Thomas and Bruschi are older and you'll be right with me. End of story here.

The DLine is not better? What a shame! We should always get better every year despite the fact that there are already 3 excellent 1st rounders on the line backed up by solid vets (Green & Wright). Note the irony please. We did add Brace to possibly mitigate any future losses in FA.

You've said nothing here counter to any point I made. End of story here.

The DBs can't be any worse can they? I like Hobbs, but he is not Asante. Deltha was pretty bad last year. Wheatley looked good before getting hurt and Wilhite also was promissing. We have add Springs and Bodden as vet FAs... are you seriously suggesting that that the two of them will be WORSE than Hobbs and Oneal? If you are suggesting that, then I have nothing more to say... we simply disagree by miles.

Adding Butler to the group was an added bonus. J.Sanders, B.Merriweather, T.Williams, Harrison, and Chung are a solid group of safeties. I was more displeased with the CBs than Safeties last year.

All in all, you post was about as pessimistic as any fan could be.

OF COURSE the dbs can be worse. Only a fool would think otherwise. "Can" is not a synonym to "will", of course, but pretending that things can't get worse in the back 4 is just ridiculous.

Some guy made a thread about some other guy who says not to expect much improvement. My summation was that we just don't know yet. In fact, I said in a post a bit down the thread:

And I'm not saying it will happen. I just think that we really don't know how it will shake out yet.

You people have got to stop pretending that everything this organization does is perfect and that BB poops rainbows, gold and Unicorns. It's possible that the defense won't show much improvement, whether you care to admit that such a possibility exists or not.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

The defense should be in a somewhat of a transition since so many of players are not around and more leave every year.

Anyone who thinks this defense will be a top 5 one in 2009 is grasping at straws and needs a reality check

If this defense is anything, it will be decent or not very good .. I would say it won't be great nor will it be horrible,I am guessing this early that it will be ranked about 14th-16th in the league as a whole when the season is over.

You really cant expect more or less until we see action in play

I do think the team will struggle to win in low scoring games and thats where top notch defenses help out - I think we can win most high scoring shootout games with Brady back.

I kind of agree with Deus who is not as high up or confident on this defense as some of you are - patience is the best medicine right now

 

[Sicilian]

The defense should be in a somewhat of a transition since so many of players are not around and more leave every year.

Anyone who thinks this defense will be a top 5 one in 2009 is grasping at straws and needs a reality check

If this defense is anything, it will be decent or not very good .. I would say it won't be great nor will it be horrible,I am guessing this early that it will be ranked about 14th-16th in the league as a whole when the season is over.

You really cant expect more or less until we see action in play

I do think the team will struggle to win in low scoring games and thats where top notch defenses help out - I think we can win most high scoring shootout games with Brady back.

Patriots were 10th overall in yards allowed and 8th overall in points allowed last year. So, put you in the camp that says they're going to be worse then?

I don't see it. Barring major injury problems, I just think we've made more improvements than we've sustained losses. But hey, we'll see. I thought we'd beat the Giants too

 

[mayoclinic]

The defense should be in a somewhat of a transition since so many of players are not around and more leave every year.

Anyone who thinks this defense will be a top 5 one in 2009 is grasping at straws and needs a reality check

If this defense is anything, it will be decent or not very good .. I would say it won't be great nor will it be horrible,I am guessing this early that it will be ranked about 14th-16th in the league as a whole when the season is over.

You really cant expect more or less until we see action in play

I do think the team will struggle to win in low scoring games and thats where top notch defenses help out - I think we can win most high scoring shootout games with Brady back.

Based on what criteria?

The 2008 defense was ranked 10th in terms of YPG (309) and 8th in terms of points/game (19.3). We were 11th in passing TPG (201.4) and 15th against the rush (107.6). Not elite, not better than middle of the pack. And that was with rookie ILBs, an injured AD, and a patchwork secondary.

Our secondary and red zone defense should be better. Bodden/Springs are a big improvement over Hobbs/O'Neal, Wheatley/Wilhite should be improved, and Butler and Chung offer tremendous athleticism and upside. Plus we will hopefully have Tank Williams this year.

Our front 7 is identical to last year, except for the loss of Vrabel and the addition of Ron Brace which should help the run defense. Mayo is a year more experienced and hopefully we have AD for the whole season. Obviously, injuries can be a major factor but I lacking other's crystal ball I can't accurately predict those.

I don't expect us to be in the Pittsburgh/Balitmore/Giants class, but I would expect us to be improved over 2008 with a top 10 defense overall and better red zone and big play capability. Top 5 might be obtainable if everything falls right, though it's unlikely. Ooops, there's my "rose colored glasses" again.

 

[BradyFTW!]

OF COURSE the dbs can be worse. Only a fool would think otherwise. "Can" is not a synonym to "will", of course, but pretending that things can't get worse in the back 4 is just ridiculous.

The entire team CAN get the swine flu and die. Doesn't make it a legitimate argument for assessing the Pats' chances in 2009.

 

[Deus Irae]

The entire team CAN get the swine flu and die. Doesn't make it a legitimate argument for assessing the Pats' chances in 2009.

Springs has played 16 games once in the past four seasons (16,15,9,9 not in that order). In fact, he has played a full 16 game season only once since 2000.

Bodden signed a 4 year extension before last year began. By the time the season was over, the worst team in the NFL decided to cut him rather than pony up that cash, as he fell from 11 interceptions to 1.

Wheatley has already broken both wrists and he's only just finished his rookie NFL season on the IR.

Wilhite was anything but impressive.

The team traded away the CB that was its #1 CB last season.

The team does not currently have a quality player with regular season on-the-field experience in the Patriots system to step in at safety should Meriweather or Sanders go down.

Butler and Chung are rookie DBs, and we've seen the Patriots' rookie DBs have their difficulties in the past few years.

That's just the reality of what this team will be dealing with. Claiming it's not a legitimate argument is just putting your head in the sand.

 

[JoeShmoe]

Wilhite was anything but impressive.

Impressive might not be the right word but for a 4th round rookie thrown into play because what was left was so poor I think he did pretty well considering

We were 11-5 with half a defense and a QB who hadn't played since college

Some of you are VERY hard to please

 

[Deus Irae]

Impressive might not be the right word but for a 4th round rookie thrown into play because what was left was so poor I think he did pretty well considering

We were 11-5 with half a defense and a QB who hadn't played since college

Some of you are VERY hard to please

Who's being hard to please? Some guy wrote an opinion and was getting pummeled as if he was a heretic for daring to opine that the defense may not show much improvement. I simply pointed out that it's possible that he's right and pointed out my reasons why I believe that. I stated "And I'm not saying it will happen. I just think that we really don't know how it will shake out yet. ", and later re-stated that.

People really should read the entire thread before jumping into it. I personally loved the Springs signing and think it will be a big help. I don't like the Hobbs trade BECAUSE I don't think things have shaken out yet, but I understand the logic behind the move and don't have any real problem with it, since I don't think BB would have made it if he wasn't confident that things would shake out in a positive manner. It IS possible to have confidence in BB and still see potential problems. Truly, it is.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Springs has played 16 games once in the past four seasons (16,15,9,9 not in that order). In fact, he has played a full 16 game season only once since 2000.

He doesn't need to play all 16 games. Hell, if he plays even 8 games the secondary will still be substantially bettter.

Bodden signed a 4 year extension before last year began. By the time the season was over, the worst team in the NFL decided to cut him rather than pony up that cash, as he fell from 11 interceptions to 1.

He was a CB who excelled in Romeo's defense, moved over to Detroit's cover 2, and wasn't very good. Incredibly dumb moves like that (signing personnel that doesn't fit your system) were exactly why the Lions went 0-16 last year.

Wheatley has already broken both wrists and he's only just finished his rookie NFL season on the IR.

So? The first one checked out just fine when the Pats and a bunch of other teams put him through physicals before the draft, and he's proven that he can not only play, but excel with that a metal rod in that wrist. The broken wrist that he suffered last year was an unrelated injury, and there's no reason to believe that he won't recover fine from it.

Wilhite was anything but impressive.

He beat out Deltha O'Neal for the starting job by the end of the season. Once again, for this defense to be an improvement over last year's, he doesn't have to be an all-pro. He just has to be better than O'Neal, which he already was even before he had a full offseason of NFL conditioning and continuing to learn the Patriots' defense.

The team traded away the CB that was its #1 CB last season.

And drafted the most physically talented CB that it's had since Ty Law, plus signed two CBs who are significantly better than Hobbs as FAs. All in all, I'll chalk it up as a 'plus'.

The team does not currently have a quality player with regular season on-the-field experience in the Patriots system to step in at safety should Meriweather or Sanders go down.

Didn't have that last season either. There's plenty of historical precedent for a rookie stepping in at safety and performing very well (see: Eugene Wilson), and Chung is by all accounts an extremely intelligent and motivated guy, so it's not unreasonable at all to say that he should be able to replicate that feat if needed.

Butler and Chung are rookie DBs, and we've seen the Patriots' rookie DBs have their difficulties in the past few years.

From what I remember, we won the SB in 2004 with a rookie UDFA CB starting (Gay), and in 2003 with a rookie safety starting (Wilson). Last season, Wilhite was good enough as a rookie to win a starting CB spot towards the end of the season (over O'Neal, admittedly). Plus, Butler and Chung aren't expected to be starters anyways- they're purely depth guys.

That's just the reality of what this team will be dealing with. Claiming it's not a legitimate argument is just putting your head in the sand.

And claiming that that isn't a substantial upgrade over last year is being childishly obstinate because Belichick disagrees with you on how to best build his team.

 

[mayoclinic]

I read the whole thread before I jumped into it.

Let's look at what we had going into 2008 on defense:

- Seymour, Wilfork, Warren, Green, Wright and Smith at DL, with Seymour coming off of a poor and injury-ridden 2007. We have the same group in 2008 PLUS Ron Brace PLUS Seymour coming off a solid 2008 PLUS Seymour and Green in contract years, which generally translates to peak performance. I'd say the DL has been upgraded, and our run defense in particular should be upgraded.

- ILB a big question mark with highly touted but unkown Jerod Mayo and Guyton as a UFDA. It wasn't clear that we wouldn't have to play an aging Vrabel or Adalius Thomas at ILB along with Bruschi as starters, or bring back Junior Seau. At OLB we had either Thomas or Vrabel, plus 2 rookies (Crable and Redd) and an unproven Woods. Woods now has some starting experience under his belt, and Crable and Redd can only benefit from a year under their belt, and Thomas is firmly entrenched at OLB. We've lost Vrabel, but he really wasn't a major factor last year. Mayo is a potential pro-bowler at ILB, Guyton is a solid player who may be ready to make a major leap, McKenzie is a gifted young player, and Alexander and Bruschi are back. I'd say we're slightly improved, but certainly no worse off.

- Safety had Meriweather going into his 2nd year being labelled a possible bust by many, with Sanders in his contract year and Harrison injury prone and slowing. Tank Williams went on IR early in training camp. Now we have Meriweather showing signs of being anywhere from a solid starter to a future pro bowler, Sanders resigned, Williams back, Springs as an upgrade from Lewis Sanders, and a bright young rookie in Chung. I'd say we're better off.

- CB was a huge hole with the loss of Samuel. We signed 2 FAs only to cut them in TC and sign Deltha O'Neal as a stop-gap, which he wasn't. Hobbs was OK but not great. Wheatley and Wilhite were rookies, and showed flashes. Now they have a year of experience. We've signed 2 FAs with much better physical ability and history than last year. And we drafted probably the most talented DB in BB's tenure with the team. I think we should be better.

That's my rose-colored view.

 

[Synovia]

The 2008 defense was ranked 10th in terms of YPG (309) and 8th in terms of points/game (19.3). We were 11th in passing TPG (201.4) and 15th against the rush (107.6).

All of which are completely assinine stats. Passing defense YPG correlates better to OFFENSIVE quality than it does defensive. Why? You score points, teams throw a lot. Running Defense is the same thing: you get behind, teams put up lots of running yards. Defensive PPG correlates almost as strongly to offense as it does to defense.

DVOA, had the Patriots at 20th Overall, with 8.9%. The 10th team in the league was Carolina at 1.3, and the best team in the league was Pitt at -26.4%.


The pats splits were as follows: Pass (21.7% - terrible, 27th), Run (-4.7%, good, 10th). Now, the Patriots defense was trending towards better for most of the second half of the year, which generally leads to teams being better the next year, so thats a positive.

They were worse on 3rd down than any other down, another indicator for improvement. (teams that are worse on third down than other downs tend to have 3rd down regress to the level of other downs)


Now, I'm of the oppinion that the pats defense was much better in week 17 than it was in week 12, but they certainly weren't top 10 in quality for the season.

 

[Deus Irae]

He doesn't need to play all 16 games. Hell, if he plays even 8 games the secondary will still be substantially bettter.

Right, because Fernando Bryant proves that BB never pulls in a dud during the free agency, and 8 games is exactly how many an NFL team plays in a season. Come on.

He was a CB who excelled in Romeo's defense, moved over to Detroit's cover 2, and wasn't very good. Incredibly dumb moves like that (signing personnel that doesn't fit your system) were exactly why the Lions went 0-16 last year.

He stunk last season. I'm not sure how this is a tough one to follow. The last year he played, he did such a poor job that the worst team in football didn't feel he was worth keeping around for a deal they'd agreed to at the beginning of that very same season.

So? The first one checked out just fine when the Pats and a bunch of other teams put him through physicals before the draft, and he's proven that he can not only play, but excel with that a metal rod in that wrist. The broken wrist that he suffered last year was an unrelated injury, and there's no reason to believe that he won't recover fine from it.

And there's no reason not to wonder if a.) he'll get hurt again and b.) the lost time means that he'll struggle to step it up this year due to the loss of possible experience.

He beat out Deltha O'Neal for the starting job by the end of the season. Once again, for this defense to be an improvement over last year's, he doesn't have to be an all-pro. He just has to be better than O'Neal, which he already was even before he had a full offseason of NFL conditioning and continuing to learn the Patriots' defense.

Ummm.... How is it that he just has to be better than O'Neal when he was the STARTER at the end of the season? How does that make even a sliver of sense? He's the one setting the bar for the #2 CB. I grant that such a fact means that the bar is pretty low, but it IS the bar.

And drafted the most physically talented CB that it's had since Ty Law, plus signed two CBs who are significantly better than Hobbs as FAs. All in all, I'll chalk it up as a 'plus'.

Great. Do we put that draftee into the Hall Of Fame today and save everyone the trouble, or do we admit that the jury's got to be still out on the guy?

Didn't have that last season either. There's plenty of historical precedent for a rookie stepping in at safety and performing very well (see: Eugene Wilson), and Chung is by all accounts an extremely intelligent and motivated guy, so it's not unreasonable at all to say that he should be able to replicate that feat if needed.

And there's plenty of historical precedent for it not happening. However, they DID have it last year. There was a 3 man safety group which included Rodney Harrison. You may have heard of him. He's the one who got injured, which is kind of the point. When he went down, the team had a viable fill in.

From what I remember, we won the SB in 2004 with a rookie UDFA CB starting (Gay), and in 2003 with a rookie safety starting (Wilson). Last season, Wilhite was good enough as a rookie to win a starting CB spot towards the end of the season (over O'Neal, admittedly). Plus, Butler and Chung aren't expected to be starters anyways- they're purely depth guys.

This has nothing to do with whether or not the DBs will be better this year than last. Nothing at all.

And claiming that that isn't a substantial upgrade over last year is being childishly obstinate because Belichick disagrees with you on how to best build his team.

No, it's not. First off, I'm not making that claim. Second, perhaps you missed this:

I personally loved the Springs signing and think it will be a big help. I don't like the Hobbs trade BECAUSE I don't think things have shaken out yet, but I understand the logic behind the move and don't have any real problem with it, since I don't think BB would have made it if he wasn't confident that things would shake out in a positive manner.

and this:

And I'm not saying it will happen. I just think that we really don't know how it will shake out yet.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

The defense will be "better" because:

Tom Brady is a defense best friend

No 38 point "wildcat" games that come as a suprise

The defense never did suck. A defense in the top third in yards and top 25% in points doesn't suck. Units in the top third or top quartile don't suck.

Seven rookies on defense last year? or is it "old and slow", can't remember.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Synovia

Dude, that's the stupidest retort I have ever seen. Games aren't won by scoring more DVOA than the opponent. Where the hell do people get this stuff?

So 8th in points allowed doesn't mean anything. How DVOA TD's do you need?

 

[ScottieC]

Jim Donaldson: Don’t expect big improvement from the Patriots’ defense | New England Patriots | projo.com | The Providence Journal

Jim thinks this team must carry on Brady's shoulder to win games and get to the playoffs

Apparently,He has no faith in this defense being able to keep opposing teams from scoring in bunches.

A bit premature IMO until we see what the new vets and rookies have in them,I do hold out hope the defense will be better,at least in the secondary.

Does Jim know who the Patriots coach is?

 

[Synovia]

So 8th in points allowed doesn't mean anything. How DVOA TD's do you need?

No, 8th in points allowed doesn't mean you have the 8th best defense. Football is a game of field position, and how well your offense moves the ball helps determine the field position your defense has to deal with, and vice versa. A good offense helps a good defense, as a good defense helps a good offense, by giving them better field position.


This DIRECTLY affects points allowed and scored. This isn't frigging baseball where offense and defense are completely seperated.



Points allowed has ABSOLUTELY NO CORRELATION TO FUTURE POINTS ALLOWED. DVOA, on the other hand, does have a correlation to future DVOA, and future points allowed.

 

[Synovia]

IE, if you have an offense that goes 3 and out every time, and the 2001 Baltimore Ravens defense, you're still going to give up a crapload of points.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Synovia

Dude, that's the stupidest retort I have ever seen. Games aren't won by scoring more DVOA than the opponent. Where the hell do people get this stuff?

So 8th in points allowed doesn't mean anything. How DVOA TD's do you need?

DVOA is an excellent statistical indicator for the real quality of a defense. Why so many people are aggressively opposed to statistics on Patsfans is completely beyond me. Kinda reminds me of how the Joe Morgans of the world reacted to Moneyball.