Division Round: Jets at Pats, 1/16/2011

[Guts]

How much of a concern will our young D be? Granted not alot of players have playoff experience in our Pats team, while the Jets are full with them on both O and D. However BB and TB have been to multiple postseasons and those are arguably the two most critical persons in the game the HC and QB. I think the D will be fine with Wilfork back there he should be able to stuff the run with a Mayo and Spikes(assuming he's 100%). Edwards and Holmes don't worry me at all McCourty will shutdown whomever they make him cover and Sanchez can't throw in the snow anyways.

 

[37Harrison]

The Edge (NFL.com) Pats v. Jests

This article NFL.com news: Jets face difficult task in slowing down machine-like Patriots from NFL.com breaksdown one person at different positions and who holds the edge.

For the most part I agree with the ones that they give the edge too except for two. The first one being the offensive line. They highlight Mangold and Mankins. I think that the simple fact the Pats O line has experienced a resurgence since Mankins return, he was voted to the ProBowl after only playing half the season and the fact that he is considered one of the top Guards in the NFL the edge should go slightly to the Pats/Mankins.

The other one being linebackers. Now I haven't seen Harris that much this season but I know that Mayo has played extremely well. Mayo leads the NFL in tackles, voted tot he ProBowl, and doing this while having to lead a very inexperienced group. Again, I think the edge here goes to the Pats/Mayo.

What do you guys think about this? Personally, this just gave me even more confidence about the another Pats thrashing of the Jets this weekend.

 

[reflexblue]

Re: The Edge (NFL.com) Pats v. Jests

The jests team Now is the pretty much the same team that started out in the beginning of the season, they haven't gotten markedly better as the season has gone on. The Pats on the other hand have, and decidedly so.

 

[ATippett56]

NFL Team Red Zone Scoring Percentage

(4) Patriots 62.69%
(30) Jets 40.74%

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Red Zone Scoring Percentage on TeamRankings.com

Home Patriots 71.88%
Away Jets 43.33%

 

[patsfan-1982]

Re: The Edge (NFL.com) Pats v. Jests

Mangold, is the only Oline men i ever seen handle Wilfork, one on one a whole game with out help so i guess im ok with them giveing him the edge


but i do agree that Mayo, had a much better year then Harris, even though more then half he's tackels came befor the browns game when the defense was on pace to set a record for most yerds he still had 79 tackles the next 8 games aftter the browns game when the defense played much better

 

[ATippett56]

NFL Team Opponent Red Zone Scoring Percentage

(19) Patriots 54.00%
(25) NY Jets 59.09%

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Opponent Red Zone Scoring Percentage on TeamRankings.com

Home Patriots 52.17%
Away NY Jets 67.86%

 

[seven]

Re: The Edge (NFL.com) Pats v. Jests

The jests team Now is the pretty much the same team that started out in the beginning of the season, they haven't gotten markedly better as the season has gone on. The Pats on the other hand have, and decidedly so.

Argumentatively, We here at Warm and Fuzzy Fooball Ousiders™
say they got worser.

Last 8
(most recent on top)
Patriots 38, Dolphins 7
Patriots 34, Bills 3
Patriots 31, Packers 27
Patriots 36, Bears 7
Patriots 45, Jets 3
Patriots 45, Lions 24
Patriots 31, Colts 28
Patriots 39, Steelers 26

(most recent on bottom)
NYJ 26 @ CLE 20
HOU 27 @ NYJ 30
CIN 10 @ NYJ 26
NYJ 3 @ NE 45
MIA 10 @ NYJ 6
NYJ 22 @ PIT 17
NYJ 34 @ CHI 38
BUF 7 @ NYJ 38

Last 8, most recent last.
Pats
8-0 Margin: +13, +3, +21,+41, +29, +4, +31, +31
Jets
5-3 Margin: +6, +3, +16, -41, -4, +5, -4, +31

Points scored-points allowed
P 299-125=174
J 185-174=11

Random Included stat:
#27Sanchez 17 TD 13 INT +4
#1 Brady 36 TD 4 INT +32

Now, to the Never has ever failed*:

Warm and Fuzzy Fooball Ousiders™
Win Predificator™ © ® patent pending
(advanced calcalution, not for the causual fan)

Total points scored minus total points allowed= Total Margin.
Total Margin divided by # of games=Margin per game,
times 2 (2 teams)

P 299-125=174 /8=21.75 x2= 44
J 185-174=11 /8 =1.4 x2= 3

The Never has Previously failed
Warm and Fuzzy Football Factz Predificatory Calculate:

44-3

(not including random included stat)

*No known previous trials, your results may vary,™ © ® patent pending

 

[Patspsycho]

Re: The actual GAME

I think the jets will use the packages they used versus Indy. Which is very different than how they played versus the Pats last time out.

What that means is, taking Bart Scott out of the game and inserting Eric Smith as the 3rd safety playing the MIKE with Lowery (better cover man than Smith) and Pool deep in a 2 shell. Considering the jets will have 3cb on the field also with Coleman or Cole, that would be a 6DB set up for most of the game.

The idea versus Manning, and it applies to Brady, is that if they are handing off you have already won a small battle.

Now, we all know the Pats have a real run game. So your risk is the Pats control the ball and the clock with long scoring drives on the ground. But that still keeps you in the game better than getting down 17-0 on mismatches like Scott on Woodhead or Scott on Hernandez.

Thomas and Pace will have to play big on the edges, with DeVito and Pryce holding the point of attack inside. If they can defend the run halfway decently with 6 in the box (one of the 6 being Smith) they can stay in this game and maybe make it interesting.

If the Jets dare to run this scheme, then we will kill them on the seams with our big TE's. I think that the Jets were in their dime when Gronk got that key DPI (Smith) to set up our first score.

If the Jets really want to stop us, they would really study the Packers game because the Packers had, in my opinion, the best designed game plan against us this year. The Packers chose to attack the fundamental philosophy of the two gap defense by putting a huge emphasis on containment in their blocking game and trying their best to stop us from shedding blocks which is the cornerstone of our defensive game. The good thing is that the Packers had the personnel and the discipline to execute this. I don't think the Jets do. I think Ryan is too vain to take a page from another DC's playbook.

 

[SVN]

Re: The actual GAME

If the Jets dare to run this scheme, then we will kill them on the seams with our big TE's. I think that the Jets were in their dime when Gronk got that key DPI (Smith) to set up our first score.

If the Jets really want to stop us, they would really study the Packers game because the Packers had, in my opinion, the best designed game plan against us this year. The Packers chose to attack the fundamental philosophy of the two gap defense by putting a huge emphasis on containment in their blocking game and trying their best to stop us from shedding blocks which is the cornerstone of our defensive game. The good thing is that the Packers had the personnel and the discipline to execute this. I don't think the Jets do. I think Ryan is too vain to take a page from another DC's playbook.

i think ryan will try some of the stuff the packers did. Mankins had a bad game that day vs raji. Maybe ryan will try some of the same stuff which is what is the concern. More importantly, the packers really controlled the ball and brady had the ball once in the 3rd quarter which was a bigger factor.

 

[Patspsycho]

How much of a concern will our young D be? Granted not alot of players have playoff experience in our Pats team, while the Jets are full with them on both O and D. However BB and TB have been to multiple postseasons and those are arguably the two most critical persons in the game the HC and QB. I think the D will be fine with Wilfork back there he should be able to stuff the run with a Mayo and Spikes(assuming he's 100%). Edwards and Holmes don't worry me at all McCourty will shutdown whomever they make him cover and Sanchez can't throw in the snow anyways.

In my opinion, experience is overrated in the playoffs. It all comes down to execution. It all comes down to what you accomplish on the field. Last year's superbowl winner, the Saints, were ripped up by the Seahawks who haven't been in the playoffs in a few years IIRC.

With the attitude and team spirit, I don't think it will be a concern. I don't think we will come out flat or practice poor technique. As long as we avoid mental mistakes and play for 60 full minutes, we will do great.

 

[TheTeufelShuffle]

Re: The actual GAME

If the Jets dare to run this scheme, then we will kill them on the seams with our big TE's. I think that the Jets were in their dime when Gronk got that key DPI (Smith) to set up our first score.

They had Smith on Gronk on that play, yes. But they did not have deep help. I think Scott is a mismatch for the Pats to exploit. If Smith picks up Gronk or Hernandez at the line and then has deep safety help, I think that would keep the Pats from exploiting the seam (too much).


Key where I look at it from a Jets perspective is to play softer and smaller, force the Pats into 12-14play drives and hope u get lucky with penalty or dropped ball or something along the way.

 

[Patspsycho]

Re: The actual GAME

They had Smith on Gronk on that play, yes. But they did not have deep help. I think Scott is a mismatch for the Pats to exploit. If Smith picks up Gronk or Hernandez at the line and then has deep safety help, I think that would keep the Pats from exploiting the seam (too much).


Key where I look at it from a Jets perspective is to play softer and smaller, force the Pats into 12-14play drives and hope u get lucky with penalty or dropped ball or something along the way.

It is impossible for a DB not to have help when the dime package is in. Both Pool and Lowery were trailing the play. The Jets were caught flat-footed (thanks Welker) on the play.

I went back and looked at that play- they were definitely in the dime.

 

[jmt57]

Regarding the ongoing debate of how the Jets should use Darrelle Revis:

Football Scientist: Revis on Welker isn't best option for Jets - Jets Blog - ESPN New York

Where these two were not equal this year was in the area of vertical pass productivity (vertical passes being those thrown 11 or more yards downfield). Branch caught 18 out of the 33 vertical passes thrown his way and gained 404 yards and four touchdowns. Add in a 29-yard pass interference penalty and it means Branch tallied 13.1 YPA on vertical throws.

Welker fared fairly well in this area, catching eight out of 16 vertical passes for 177 yards, or 11.1 vertical YPA, but his lack of downfield targets indicates he is not utilized as a stretch the field receiver (no surprise there).

What this all means is simple. Putting Revis on Welker would take away a strong short pass threat but putting him on Branch would take away both a short threat and a long threat. It's like placing two castaways on Revis Island instead of one.

 

[Kontradiction]

I didn't really explain anything in detail. Because Mangold comes as near as anyone can, in the league, to neutralizing Wilfork, I think the Jets like to work the B gaps as far as the run game is concerned, and I think with a reduced line (we walk the backers standing up into the A gaps where they can rush or drop) this complicates Mangold's task because he has a split second to decide who to block, the backer(s) in the A gap who may or may not be rushing, or Wilfork on the outside shade on either side, or the opposite DE. Additionally we complicate this by shifting the line after Sanchez makes the initial identification of the mike. This makes Mangold have to change the protection again. This in theory is ideal for stopping the IZ run but not sure about OZ, especially if TBC is holding up one end. On the other hand, Murrell is playing, and he is a monster on the edge. That is one matchup I am very excited about.

Unless my memory is failing me, Wilfork practically abused Mangold in the last game one on one, did he not?

 

[jmt57]

A quick look at Damien Woody's replacement for the Jets:

Patriots Defensive Line Has Mountain to Move in Jets' Replacement Tackle Wayne Hunter - Jeff Howe - NESN.com

Hunter replaced Woody for the Jets' game-winning drive in Indy, and he started the last three games of the regular season while Woody recovered from a knee injury. The Seahawks selected Hunter in the third round of the 2003 draft, and he spent three years in Seattle and one in Jacksonville before hooking on with the Jets in 2007.

The 6-foot-5, 318-pounder has started five career games, with four of them coming in 2010. A couple of Patriots weighed in on Hunter's credentials.

"Hunter is a big, athletic guy," Pats linebacker Rob Ninkovich said. "He's in his eighth year. He's from Hawaii. He's been around the league, so he's got some experience. He would come in there as a heavy tight end before Woody was injured, and he's had some playing time in the last few weeks. He's played because of Woody's injury. He's a good player, so we're going to have to prepare for him. He's a good player, a good backup. I think he could easily have been a starter for them if Woody wasn’t there. I think he's a good player."

"He's a different player [than Woody]," Patriots linebacker Jerod Mayo said. "He's more athletic. He's similar to [Jets left tackle D'Brickashaw] Ferguson, an athletic guy, a long guy. It's not too big of a fall-off. He's a good player."

 

[SVN]

Re: The actual GAME

They had Smith on Gronk on that play, yes. But they did not have deep help. I think Scott is a mismatch for the Pats to exploit. If Smith picks up Gronk or Hernandez at the line and then has deep safety help, I think that would keep the Pats from exploiting the seam (too much).


Key where I look at it from a Jets perspective is to play softer and smaller, force the Pats into 12-14play drives and hope u get lucky with penalty or dropped ball or something along the way.

as its always is, its going to come down to pass protection. if the pats oline hasa game like the GB game or the detriot game-1st half we might be in trouble. otherwise we should be able to move the ball.

 

[Patspsycho]

Unless my memory is failing me, Wilfork practically abused Mangold in the last game one on one, did he not?

There was rarely any BOB on the line of scrimmage, but what little there was did not really show that.

 

[THELAWFIRM226]

Is hernandez gonna play? I have been hearing some things about that and I dont like it.....how about spikes? I believe spikes is done with that suspension, correct me if im wrong!!

 

[Ron Sellers]

Is hernandez gonna play? I have been hearing some things about that and I dont like it.....how about spikes? I believe spikes is done with that suspension, correct me if im wrong!!

Spikes is now eligible to play, yes.

Whether or not BB feels he is ready to play and contribute, that's another question. He called him out for not being in shape earlier this week.

As for Hernandez, I haven't read or heard anything that would make me think he won't play. As far as I know he's 100% ready to go. The only person that looks like he won't be able to play is Pryor with his back injury.

 

[Patspsycho]

Spikes is now eligible to play, yes.

Whether or not BB feels he is ready to play and contribute, that's another question. He called him out for not being in shape earlier this week.

As for Hernandez, I haven't read or heard anything that would make me think he won't play. As far as I know he's 100% ready to go. The only person that looks like he won't be able to play is Pryor with his back injury.

I don't know if BB really did that- all he said was "[Spikes] looks like someone who hasn't practiced for four weeks." That's par with his usual practice of saying something without saying anything. I mean, of course anyone would look like they hadn't practiced in four weeks when they've literally missed four weeks.

My thought is that its more of a subtle dig at Spikes for allowing the whole thing to happen in the first place.

The media has read far more into this than there really is, as usual.