Division Round: Jets at Pats, 1/16/2011

[SVN]

mike mayock on nfln brought up an interesting point today saying that the team has benefitted by creating turnovers in every game but in the playoffs if this game goes into the 4th quarter without turnovers by the D and the game is close, this D is still very young .He said that this pats team even though everyone thinks is a lock is a 1 or 2 yrs away from being the best.

 

[Coach42]

mike mayock on nfln brought up an interesting point today saying that the team has benefitted by creating turnovers in every game but in the playoffs if this game goes into the 4th quarter without turnovers by the D and the game is close, this D is still very young .He said that this pats team even though everyone thinks is a lock is a 1 or 2 yrs away from being the best.

I think that is a pretty accurate statement. I think this team is ahead of schedule as far as player development is concerned. Injuries aside their best football is in front of them.

 

[WinstonSmith]

Signature Offensive plays of Playoff Teams

Mike Tanier of Football Outsiders, broke down some offensive signature plays of the eight remaining playoff teams.

For the Patriots he chose to break down a 15 yard completion to Welker, and in the process helps to illuminate why the Pats’ offense is so difficult to defend:

Tanier: NFL playoffs aren't the time to get fancy - NFL- NBC Sports

“The Branch-Welker route combination is designed to keep the cornerback and safety on their heels. Notice that the two receivers are almost stacked at the line of scrimmage. Welker releases inside, so he is running behind Branch for a few steps, and Branch veers across the face of the linebacker, who freezes while figuring out who is going where. When defenders face stacked receivers, they often assign coverage based on the patterns; the cornerback is not covering Branch or Welker, but whoever cuts to the outside. Both Welker and Branch run crossing routes, and while the linebacker does a good job of diagnosing the play and chasing Welker, he’s not fast enough to stay with the receiver, who gains 15 yards.

The Jets want to play man-to-man coverage so they can unleash their blitzes, but Brady excels at finding and exploiting the weak links in man coverage. Darrelle Revis isn’t the answer for the Jets — Welker often hides in the slot or in stack formations and works the middle of the field, out of Revis’ range. If the Patriots can peck the Jets to death with plays like these, they can win easily.”

 

[Patspsycho]

I think that is a pretty accurate statement. I think this team is ahead of schedule as far as player development is concerned. Injuries aside their best football is in front of them.

That's the best part of the whole equation. We're only going to get better. The team the Jets are fielding this year is very "short-term results" and so it is obvious that all or most of the pressure is on them, to "do it" this year.

Weather is calling for around 14 degrees on kickoff with winds that gusts up to 25 mph.

One particular area of concern is kickoff return, PAT kicks.

Graham's range is not good.

And the reason he is with us is because last year he missed two easy kicks in last year's playoff game against the Jets (Bengals vs. Jets). He ended up in the unemployment line pretty fast after that.

 

[Patspsycho]

Some other items of interest:

LT's YPC has been going down near the end of the season. It has dipped to 4.2, it will be interesting to see how he does without his best run-blocker in RT Woody.

BJGE's YPC has actually been going up. He has averaged 4.65 after game 8.

In the last month, Sanchez has thrown 1 TD pass versus 7 turnovers.

 

[everlong]

Weather is calling for around 14 degrees on kickoff with winds that gusts up to 25 mph.

One particular area of concern is kickoff return, PAT kicks.

Graham's range is not good.

And the reason he is with us is because last year he missed two easy kicks in last year's playoff game against the Jets (Bengals vs. Jets). He ended up in the unemployment line pretty fast after that.

Where are you seeing that weather report?

AccuWeather.com - Foxboro Hourly Weather | Hourly Forecast for Foxboro, MA

New York Jets at New England Patriots - weather.com

Graham is a weakness that could be an issue. One of the ways the Jets win this game is in the kickoff game where they are much better than the Patriots. In a FG situation Folk has more leg but both kickers have struggled in big game situations.

Conversely however the Pats are much better in the punt game on both sides than the Jets and we saw that nice 12 yarder, I believe, the last time they played.

 

[everlong]

LT's YPC has been going down near the end of the season. It has dipped to 4.2, it will be interesting to see how he does without his best run-blocker in RT Woody.

Andy Hart who I wouldn't call a homer by any stretch said that LT's performance vs the Colts was the perfect storm for him. Weak run defense, nice warm dome.....He called him soft and said he'll get exposed this week in the cold and we'll see the 2.5 YPC LT because he doesn't like the cold and getting hit in it. He called out Cromartie in a similar manner and his no-tackle on Greene last year was in a warm climate.

 

[SVN]

Bruschi's breakdownats vs Jets

Bruschi's Breakdown: New England Patriots-New York Jets rivalry goes deeper - ESPN Boston

 

[Fencer]

Re: Bruschi's breakdownats vs Jets

Didn't really answer the question of how the depleted Front 7 will hold up against the Jets' running game.

But I liked the bit about the impassioned BB speech at the end. Makes sense. Easiest way for the Pats to lose this is to start the game in the wrong frame of mind and take too long to snap out of it.

 

[mgcolby]

Re: Bruschi's breakdownats vs Jets

Didn't really answer the question of how the depleted Front 7 will hold up against the Jets' running game.

But I liked the bit about the impassioned BB speech at the end. Makes sense. Easiest way for the Pats to lose this is to start the game in the wrong frame of mind and take too long to snap out of it.

The Jets lost Woody, who is probably their best run blocker. I realize they had a good day running the ball last week against a terrible run defense. But that Jets run game doesn't scare me much. I don't know anything about Hunter (Woody's replacement) but I have to think it will be a major downgrade.

Depleted front 7? I'm not sure I agree with that. I mean after all Wright hadn't played in 6 weeks, Brace missed the last couple of games. Deaderick missed some time at the end of the year because of the suspension, Love is playing, doesn't look like Pryor is playing and we get Spikes back. I think over all we are better off in the front 7 for this game then we were for the final 4 games of the season.

 

[Fencer]

Re: Bruschi's breakdownats vs Jets

The Jets lost Woody, who is probably their best run blocker. I realize they had a good day running the ball last week against a terrible run defense. But that Jets run game doesn't scare me much. I don't know anything about Hunter (Woody's replacement) but I have to think it will be a major downgrade.

Depleted front 7? I'm not sure I agree with that. I mean after all Wright hadn't played in 6 weeks, Brace missed the last couple of games. Deaderick missed some time at the end of the year because of the suspension, Love is playing, doesn't look like Pryor is playing and we get Spikes back. I think over all we are better off in the front 7 for this game then we were for the final 4 games of the season.

Well, one of the big concerns is run defense in a nickel package. And the OLB/sub-DE types seem nicked up, with Cunningham, TBC, and Moore all having issues.

Good point that some of the other personnel issues arose quite a while ago.

 

[Patspsycho]

Where are you seeing that weather report?

AccuWeather.com - Foxboro Hourly Weather | Hourly Forecast for Foxboro, MA

I'm not sure what your question is since you've answered it. That accuweather report is putting up the same numbers that I have, 15 degrees (look under realfeel which is an accurate representation of what it'll be like with all that wind in Foxboro).

 

[SVN]

Re: Bruschi's breakdownats vs Jets

The Jets lost Woody, who is probably their best run blocker. I realize they had a good day running the ball last week against a terrible run defense. But that Jets run game doesn't scare me much. I don't know anything about Hunter (Woody's replacement) but I have to think it will be a major downgrade.

Depleted front 7? I'm not sure I agree with that. I mean after all Wright hadn't played in 6 weeks, Brace missed the last couple of games. Deaderick missed some time at the end of the year because of the suspension, Love is playing, doesn't look like Pryor is playing and we get Spikes back. I think over all we are better off in the front 7 for this game then we were for the final 4 games of the season.

to be fair our run D wasnt good in the last 3-4 games.packers ran all over us. bills,ran all over in the first drive and then stopped running

 

[SVN]

It Is What It Is Jersey Four: Rex goes out swinging, Mangold vs. Wilfork and Nick Folk is ready

Rex:the second biggest game in the history of this franchise, with Super Bowl III being the most [important].

 

[Ring 6]

Re: The actual GAME

If the Jets dare to run this scheme, then we will kill them on the seams with our big TE's. I think that the Jets were in their dime when Gronk got that key DPI (Smith) to set up our first score.

If the Jets really want to stop us, they would really study the Packers game because the Packers had, in my opinion, the best designed game plan against us this year. The Packers chose to attack the fundamental philosophy of the two gap defense by putting a huge emphasis on containment in their blocking game and trying their best to stop us from shedding blocks which is the cornerstone of our defensive game. The good thing is that the Packers had the personnel and the discipline to execute this. I don't think the Jets do. I think Ryan is too vain to take a page from another DC's playbook.

You lost me there. You were taking about the Jets D then said they should copy what the Packers did on DEFENSE

 

[Ring 6]

Some other items of interest:

LT's YPC has been going down near the end of the season. It has dipped to 4.2, it will be interesting to see how he does without his best run-blocker in RT Woody.

BJGE's YPC has actually been going up. He has averaged 4.65 after game 8.

In the last month, Sanchez has thrown 1 TD pass versus 7 turnovers.

Ldt has average 3.3 since game 8. Greene 3.8.
They have COMBINED for 690 rush yards in those 7 games.
BJGE has run for over 600 himself in those 8 averaging 4.6 and Woodhead has added 300 at over 6 a carry.
Defensively, the Jets have allowed 92 rush yards per game and the Pats 98.
Based upon the last 2 months, the Patriots have a clear advantage in rushing in this game

 

[RobertWeathers]

Re: Bruschi's breakdownats vs Jets

to be fair our run D wasnt good in the last 3-4 games.packers ran all over us. bills,ran all over in the first drive and then stopped running

Don't think the numbers totally back your claim.

Run D last 4 games

Chi- 14 car for 47 yds = 3.5 ypc

GB- excluding Qb scrambles 35 car /130 yds = 3.7 ypc

BUF- Keep in mind Pats came out in their nickel package. In the first drive, BUF gained 64 yds on the first 7 carries. Take away Fitzy's 14 yd scramble and the yardage from the first drive, you have 3.91 ypc

MIA 16 car for 44 yds= 2.75 ypc

Against NYJ, take away Sanchez scrambles and factor in that they went nickel the whole second 1/2, yielding 4.9 ypc is irrelevant in a 45-3 game.

I take out the scrambles b/c that means the defense did it's job. The pass play broke down or pass rush forced the Qb to run. Mission accomplished.

Their run D is fine.

 

[Patspsycho]

Re: The actual GAME

You lost me there. You were taking about the Jets D then said they should copy what the Packers did on DEFENSE

No, they should copy what the Packers did on offense. They clogged up our ability to shed blockers and that way really impended the two-gap philosophy. For instance, if you watch the kick out blockers in that game, they aggressively attacked, really grabbing jerseys, shoulder pads and not allowing the D player to get away from that. They did everything short of holding, and a little of that too.

I think I should not have used the word "stop us" because that probably made you think of defense. I should have said "beat us" as in "if the Jets wanted to beat us."

 

[neuronet]

It feels like sunday afternoon is never going to get here. I think the bye week makes it feel that much longer for me.

Funny how that works. :snob:

 

[SVN]

Re: Bruschi's breakdownats vs Jets

Don't think the numbers totally back your claim.

Run D last 4 games

Chi- 14 car for 47 yds = 3.5 ypc

GB- excluding Qb scrambles 35 car /130 yds = 3.7 ypc

BUF- Keep in mind Pats came out in their nickel package. In the first drive, BUF gained 64 yds on the first 7 carries. Take away Fitzy's 14 yd scramble and the yardage from the first drive, you have 3.91 ypc

MIA 16 car for 44 yds= 2.75 ypc

Against NYJ, take away Sanchez scrambles and factor in that they went nickel the whole second 1/2, yielding 4.9 ypc is irrelevant in a 45-3 game.

I take out the scrambles b/c that means the defense did it's job. The pass play broke down or pass rush forced the Qb to run. Mission accomplished.

Their run D is fine.

i think the Dline is quite thin to day the run D is fine.ypc in the GB game for e.g is less but they ran 35 times which shows they were able to run the ball consistently.Of course keeping the score close helps as the the onside kick to start the game.
Teams which think they need to match points will run less and give the D to make plays. Teams which can contain our offense initially for some time will keep running.Remains to be seen what happens sunday.