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Division Round: Jets at Pats, 1/16/2011

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by jmt57, Jan 11, 2011.

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  1. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    With the countdown at almost exactly five days to go before the Pats play the Jets, I figured it was time to start a pre-game discussion thread. Whether it be yours or something you found by the media, throw all your opinions, analysis, keys to the game and other random thoughts that don't warrant their own threads in this thread.

    #6 New York Jets (12-5) at #1 New England Patriots (14-2)
    Sunday January 16 at 4:30 p.m. EST on CBS
    Jim Nantz and Phil Simms are the announcers
    Kevin Harlan, Randy Cross and Kevin Kiley will do the radio broadcast
    New England is currently favored by 8½ to 9 points
    Over under is currently 45 points
    The Money Line ranges from +300 to +350 for the Jets; -380 to -500 for the Pats
  2. SVN

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    nantz and simms again. get ready to hear more jets jets jets during the broadcast.
  3. Keyser Söze

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    NOT SIMMS UGHHHH

    christ, he's done almost every Pats game. I cant stand that idiot, he adds absolutely nothing. Phil-osophy Har har har FU.
  4. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The NFL Today: Jets vs. Patriots Breakdown - CBSSports.com NFL Video

    In this rather superficial 3-minute video which starts with the premise of "is there any way the Jets can beat the Pats?", Boomer Esiason says that if the Jets can run the ball the way they did against the Colts then they have a 'puncher's chance' and notes that revenge is a big motivating factor for all athletes - though he stops short and says he doesn't think the Jets will win.

    Shannon Sharpe thinks the Jets should put Darrelle Revis on Wes Welker, stay away from blitzes, and force the Pats to go on long drives to score.

    Bill Cowher says the Jets do not have the passing game to keep up with the Pats in a high scoring game; he suggests they go with a bend-don't-break style of defense to limit the possessions.

    Dan Marino likes BeJarvus Green-Ellis and feels that if the Pats don't beat themselves by turning the ball over, they're not going to lose.
  5. Patspsycho

    Patspsycho Rookie

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    Finally, a drama-free thread that's strictly X and O's. Hope it stays that way.
  6. kkpat

    kkpat Rookie

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    getting very anstsy about the game. Need to relax. Can't. The foot Rexy keeps singing driving my BP up and up.
  7. NHPATSFAN11

    NHPATSFAN11 Rookie

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    I am also antsy as well. I am a teacher and had a snow day today; it was a very productive one, I spent from 10 am to 4 p.m. browsing the internet for pats-jets articles. I dont think I am even going to be able to sleep friday or saturday night.
  8. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I figured I'd start a humorous thread about some pre-game analysis as a temporary diversion from the REAL story this week, "What Did Rex Say Now!"

    Unfortunately this topic may quickly drop to page two or three, I don't know.



    From behind enemy lines: BACK PAGE: Jets must play like underdog Packers to beat Patriots | New York Post

    So, apparently we have another one of those "they showed us the blueprint on how to beat them" columns. Hey, it's better than 'I can't believe what they're saying on the Jets forum'.

    Their first bullet point is the element of surprise, such as an early trick play or scheme to gain momentum; analogy to the GB game is the onside kick. Next is a big play (the 66-yard TD pass to James Jones); the writer feels that "WRs Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards are capable of burning a mostly inexperienced Patriots secondary", and should be able to pull it off because Sanchez is better/more experienced than Matt Flynn.

    Next he points to the time of possession in the Packer game where Green Bay held the ball for over 40 minutes; he feels since the Jets have a better running game based on yards per carry that they too should be able to do the same thing, which will result in them being able to keep Brady on the sidelines.

    Last thing he points to is avoiding the big mistake, pointing out Connolly's 71-yard kick return and Arrington's pick six. Of course he neglects to make a connection between those plays and the previously mentioned TOP, or why he feels Sanchez will play error-free ball in Foxboro Sunday.
  9. Patspsycho

    Patspsycho Rookie

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    Key will be for Sanchez to have a completion rate of less than 60% which he has done up in Foxboro, a place he has yet to win in.

    Sanchez has had a few 60% plus game, particularly against Pittsburgh but that was out of a pared playbook which is giftwrapping it for the Patriots D.

    As tired as it sounds, the key is still stopping their run game, and with that in mind, I think we are going to open in our run-stopping nickel and I have a feeling it will be a 24 package with plenty of reduced lines, because linebackers are what we have, not defensive linemen. This would put Wilfork just off Mangold, instead of playing BOB and that has given Mangold fits in the past, because he must snap and then bucket step. I think we will see more of that shifting line that we saw in game 2 at Foxboro because it gave their OL the fits, as well as messing up Sanchez's timing.

    On offense, the key for us is just to play smart and of course avoid the turnover. With our multiple formations and alignments, the Jets can only mix and match so much, and I think Ryan realizes it was dumb to try and outguess that by shifting Revis all over. This time I think he will just have Revis stick on Welker and take him out to try and slow down the game and reduce the checkdowns. I would look for plenty of stacks on the line and pick plays, the high-lo drags. If the cover 2 is deep, throw the smash at them, and if they stack the box, plenty of play-action with the run. I would not be surprised to see us run trips and counterthrow on those.
  10. PatsChamp88

    PatsChamp88 Rookie

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  11. SVN

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    Francesa on WFAN keeps harping on the packer game and says this defense is not good and has the advantage of playing with big leads early.Of course he uses the packer game as an example but fails to note that the D sets up lot of these short yardages and breaks open the game.
    IMO, if the pats dont get a turnover or 2, it could be a close game.More impressive IMO that brady's non interception streak is that this D has generated turnovers in every game since cleveland and soemtimes more than one .
  12. Ice_Ice_Brady

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    Great point, besides the fact that it's stupid. First, that WAS the Jets game plan in the 45-3 massacre. When the Pats spread the ball around the field, it isn't as simple as "this guy shuts down this guy"- and if you want to make it that simple, there will be huge mismatches. Also, the Pats have moved the ball easily when Welker has been shut down. For anyone paying attention, the gigantic problem in stopping the Pats are the two tight ends.

    Also a great point, if not for it being stupid. "Bend-but-don't-break" is exactly the type of defense that doesn't work against the Patriots. They are not a threat in the vertical game, so why would you strategize to keep the big play from happening? You are basically daring them to beat you with high efficiency short passes. That's a recipe for success against this team? Perhaps he meant red-zone defense, which is a different concept. If that's the case, I would agree.
  13. SVN

    SVN Rookie

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    i think they did put revis on welker a few times. Pats countered by moving him to the backfield and confusing them with woody also there i think.
  14. 102 Pat

    102 Pat Rookie

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    It feels like sunday afternoon is never going to get here. I think the bye week makes it feel that much longer for me. I'm glad work will be busy for me saturday night as by the time I'll be done and home, it will be close to 3am. I always seem to have a hard time sleeping the night before a playoff game. Anybody else like this?:D
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2011
  15. patfanken

    patfanken Rookie

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    That's the beauty of the Pats flexible offense. Through motion and formation, the Pats can protect a their small receivers and get them free releases off the line if they are being out physicalled at the LOS.

    I will be VERY interested to see how Rex decides to defend Brady. He had some success in game 2 in the 2nd half with max protection schemes. Schemes that were very similar with what he showed vs Manning.

    In December he came after Brady with a lot of blitzes with the obvious negative results. Common wisdom would make us think that we'll see more of the same as what we saw vs Indy. 2 deep S's with man/zone/and combination of both with tight coverage in the short to midrange areas.

    But if it seem so clear to us, I'm sure BB will be well prepared to combat that strategy, and I think Rex knows it. The question is does he have to the nuts to go against conventional wisdom and a slew of new blitz schemes that can create enough pressure on Brady to disrupt our offensive rhythm. The ones he's thrown at him thus far have been pretty well blocked.

    BTW- thanks to jmt for putting this thread together each week and continually updating them in between the inane post from people like myself. ;)
  16. PatsChamp88

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    Yeah maybe he meant their defense will give up yards (bend) but play well in the red zone(don't break)? Sure that might help limit New England's possessions but I think more of that falls on their offense and it's ability to run the ball which when playing from behind will work well :D
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2011
  17. CheeseMonkeys

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    Big game coming up fellas. If the Pats win the coin toss should be kick it or start out with the offense?
  18. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    While all the talk has been Belichick vs Ryan and Brady vs Sanchez, the most important individual battle may be Vince Wilfork vs Nick Mangold. The HC and QB may get the most press, but games are still won and lost in the trenches.



    This first article links to the Boston Herald but it's actually written by Tom Rock of Newsday, a Long Island newspaper.

    Jets' ground game gets Patriots' attention - BostonHerald.com


    Cris Collinsworth also talks about the importance of the Mangold-Wilfork matchup - and then points something out that many Jets fans overlook when bringing up the Jet cornerbacks.

    Collinsworth: Don't expect another lopsided Pats win vs. Jets - Sunday Night Football- NBC Sports


    Jets must establish run against Patriots - Newsday
  19. Brady_to_Moss

    Brady_to_Moss Revis Island is here PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I just want the game to be here..i am confident they will win but theres always a change that things can go south in anything..would rather lose the AFC champ game than this one even though the farther you get..the harder it is when taking a loss..GO PATS
  20. Brady_to_Moss

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    This is the key to the game ladies and gentlemen. If these players cant stop our TE's and passes out of backfield..pats will win easily. Its amazing that two rookie TE's are going to have to get major recognition from the D on Sunday
  21. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I think this article was intended to boost confidence in New Yorkers that the results of week two could be repeated. I actually came away feeling more confident in the Pats, because I see many reasons to expect that neither Sanchez nor Brady will repeat their week two performances.

    So What Did the Jets Do Right When They Beat the Patriots in Week 2? -- The Sports Section | New York Magazine | New York Times


    There's also an obligatory 'keys to the game' column; this one is by Ian Rapoport on behalf of The Sporting News.

    AFC Divisional playoff matchup: New York Jets at New England Patriots - NFL - Sporting News
  22. Free_Pacman

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    Does anyone know exactly what time is kickoff? Will the game begin at 4:30? The thing is I have a school organization meeting at 8 and I'm the VP and I already pushed the meeting back. Do you think the game will be over by 8 assuming it doesn't go into OT? I figure at most 3:20 for a regulation game, right?
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2011
  23. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I know what you mean. And both times this season it was leading up to a game against the Jets. Three weeks since a meaningful game this time, the extra time off after playing early (Thanksgiving) last time.

    I'm a proponent of starting out the second half with the ball myself.
  24. CheeseMonkeys

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    I think you will miss maybe the last couple minutes of the game at the most.
  25. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Great job; that's a helluva breakdown. Of course I did have to read it three times before it sank in. Lots of people talk about stopping the running game but you're the first I've seen to explain HOW to accomplish that.

    Thanks a lot for the analysis.
  26. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Looking at last weekend's games they were all over in well less than 3:30. Besides, the networks want the game over before 8:00 so they can start their primetime shows at their regular times; they're not going to load up with extra commercials and have it run past 8:00. Unless it goes into overtime you should be fine; it should be over at about 7:30 - 7:45.
  27. Patspsycho

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    One thing I guarantee is that our run game is going to have the same success it did last time. Because we run so much with the Ace package (212) there are almost always at least five blockers at work and with that much, it becomes a numbers game, where you have block after block, nullifying the Jets personnel until there is nothing left but what is upfield (DB) and thus BJGE or Woodhead can release way past the 2nd level.

    For example, on the first run of the 2nd game in Foxboro we are in 212, Crumper weakside I offset, line blocks weakside except for Mankins running a trap nullifying the DE, opening the gate for Crumpler to climb over and stone Harris, and once BJGE is on 2nd level, Connolly and Light have swept back to neutralize the rest of the backers with Gronk who logs Smith. That is five blocks and in the numbers game that absolutely nullifies the Jets personnel up to and past the 2nd level and BJGE is able to gain 13 yards on the play before Revis tackles him.

    Of course you can cheat a safety to the box, but that opens up the seams.

    It just almost is unfair that we should have such multi-talented personnel, players who are solid blockers and can catch a pass anytime.
  28. SoCal Pmen

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    Not sure if this has been brought up in other threads but I'm somewhat surprised this game was scheduled for Sunday afternoon versus Saturday. Gives the lower seeded Steelers/Ravens an extra day of rest/preparation.
  29. Patspsycho

    Patspsycho Rookie

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    I didn't really explain anything in detail. Because Mangold comes as near as anyone can, in the league, to neutralizing Wilfork, I think the Jets like to work the B gaps as far as the run game is concerned, and I think with a reduced line (we walk the backers standing up into the A gaps where they can rush or drop) this complicates Mangold's task because he has a split second to decide who to block, the backer(s) in the A gap who may or may not be rushing, or Wilfork on the outside shade on either side, or the opposite DE. Additionally we complicate this by shifting the line after Sanchez makes the initial identification of the mike. This makes Mangold have to change the protection again. This in theory is ideal for stopping the IZ run but not sure about OZ, especially if TBC is holding up one end. On the other hand, Murrell is playing, and he is a monster on the edge. That is one matchup I am very excited about.
  30. SVN

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    possible kiss of death- collinsworth picked the pats to win 28-17 :(
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