Patriots Player Departure Devin Asiasi is gone for now

[Family]

Refreshing classiness.

Or he wants his son to someday get James Ferentz or Bill Murray's job.

 

[captain stone]

Weeks? This happened a while ago.

And it's been the only good news since then...

 

[upstater1]

I'm reading a ton of articles about the Patriots huge failure in taking Asiasi and Keene. But almost none of these articles go back and look at the underwhelming 3rd and 4th rounds. Very few players turned out, like a handful. Many of them 2 years later are on other teams. Only a few have been productive as starters.

We just signed a guy, Lynn Bowden, who was taken BEFORE all of our 3rd rounders.

 

[Bill Lee]

I'm reading a ton of articles about the Patriots huge failure in taking Asiasi and Keene. But almost none of these articles go back and look at the underwhelming 3rd and 4th rounds. Very few players turned out, like a handful. Many of them 2 years later are on other teams. Only a few have been productive as starters.

We just signed a guy, Lynn Bowden, who was taken BEFORE all of our 3rd rounders.

Agree 100%.

Interesting article:

NFL Draft Pick Bust Rate Remains Very High

More analytics haven’t increased the success rate

www.dailynorseman.com

Gives stats about NFL draft picks:

• 16.7% didn’t play for the team that drafted them
• 37% were considered useless. They either didn’t play much or didn’t make the team.
• 15.3% were considered poor. Had limited playing time and didn’t do well in the time they had.
• 10.5% were considered average. These are mediocre players that had starts or significant contributions over 2-3 years.
• 12.3% were considered good. These could be mediocre or average players that were multi-year starters, Pat Elflein or Christian Ponder for example, or perhaps some genuinely good players that didn’t last all that long for the team that drafted them- Sidney Rice for example. This is where the AV metric can over-rate a player based on the number of starts, rather than their performance while on the field.
• 6.9% were considered Great. This category is the first that includes undeniably good draft picks. In order to be considered great, they would’ve had to play for the team that drafted them into a second contract, and also performed well over those years.
• 1% were considered legendary. These are future Hall of Famers, multi-year All-Pros among the best in the league for most of their relatively long careers.

And, so only about 8% of draft picks are players that really make much of a difference beyond replacement value, and only about 30% see much playing time or make a significant contribution to the team.​

So, very approximately, each round has 1/7th = 14.3% of the picks, so assuming perfect drafting (cough) only the first half of the first round "should" yield legendary (hall of fame) or great (second contract) players, mid first to mid second "should" be good (multi-year starter), mid second to mid third average (starts or contributions over 2-3 years), after that we're in the realm of poor or useless.

But, then, to bring it back to this thread, Asiasi was pick 91, NE's pick at the end of the 3rd round, so around 91/(7*32) or 40% in terms of draft position. That would place Asiasi right in the middle of the "poor" bucket above ("limited playing time and didn’t do well in the time they had"). And, that's exactly where he ended up. Yet so much butthurt about the "disaster" of him not working out. Sigh.

And if I really want to stir the pot, I'd point out that both Sony Michel and N'Keal Harry were/are average or mediocre multi-year starters, which is exactly what you'd expect from a LATE first round pick based on the quotes above.

People just like to cherry pick the few cases where things work out better than expectations to try to "prove" our drafting "sucks". It has little basis in reality. Yes, you can find disappointing draft picks, but, again, look at the stuff I quoted above. Most people simply have too high expectations, based on cherry picking good draft picks without factoring in bad draft picks (which every team has).

The NFL Draft sells hope, just like the Lotto, yet 70% of the players drafted aren't likely to be in the league after three seasons. Pointing that out would be a buzz kill, so no one in the Draft Industrial Complex does that.

I've produced the stats that show our drafting has been top 25% over a ten year period IF YOU FACTOR DRAFT POSITION into our results. Yet that doesn't conform to people's perceptions, so they dismiss it out of hand.

People love to rant about how the GOAT QB saved our bacon time after time (true!) but don't take it the next logical step, winning all those divisions, conferences, and SBs meant we had terrible drafting position. Somehow we're supposed to not just be a championship caliber team but also be able to keep adding great players. The fact we did over 20 years is not just a testament to the GOAT QB, but some pretty darn good team building too.

 

[Patsgofor4]

I'm reading a ton of articles about the Patriots huge failure in taking Asiasi and Keene. But almost none of these articles go back and look at the underwhelming 3rd and 4th rounds. Very few players turned out, like a handful. Many of them 2 years later are on other teams. Only a few have been productive as starters.

We just signed a guy, Lynn Bowden, who was taken BEFORE all of our 3rd rounders.

Asiasi and Keene were obviously both whiffs but take a look at the entire 2020 TE class:


Woof. Kmet is the best of the bunch and his second year production is deceptive, as it was based mainly upon his target share, with a skill position group in Chicago so devoid of talent. 90 targets and no TDs for a TE is telling. Albert O had a promising 2nd year but 33 catches and 4 TDs is still pretty underwhelming. The rest of the TE class have busted., A lot of posters who are bashing BB would have been very happy if they had drafted Trautman, a pre-draft Patsfan binky and look how that would have turned out.

 

[Zuma]

Asiasi and Keene were obviously both whiffs but take a look at the entire 2020 TE class:
View attachment 44948

Woof. Kmet is the best of the bunch and his second year production is deceptive, as it was based mainly upon his target share, with a skill position group in Chicago so devoid of talent. 90 targets and no TDs for a TE is telling. Albert O had a promising 2nd year but 33 catches and 4 TDs is still pretty underwhelming. The rest of the TE class have busted., A lot of posters who are bashing BB would have been very happy if they had drafted Trautman, a pre-draft Patsfan binky and look how that would have turned out.

A bunch of duds. I wanted to draft Fant or Smith.

 

[cupofjoe1962]

The 2020 draft where we got Asias & Keene was a known weak draft year for TE.

Although nagging injuries destroyed their chances.

 

[jah]

Asiasi and Keene were obviously both whiffs but take a look at the entire 2020 TE class:
View attachment 44948

Woof. Kmet is the best of the bunch and his second year production is deceptive, as it was based mainly upon his target share, with a skill position group in Chicago so devoid of talent. 90 targets and no TDs for a TE is telling. Albert O had a promising 2nd year but 33 catches and 4 TDs is still pretty underwhelming. The rest of the TE class have busted., A lot of posters who are bashing BB would have been very happy if they had drafted Trautman, a pre-draft Patsfan binky and look how that would have turned out.

Trautman probably would have at least made this roster as TE3. He's not what people thought he'd be, but he's better than who we picked.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Bye-bye to assyassy and keane. Two more reasons why bb should not be in the draft room on draft night!

 

[Ollie]

Bye-bye to assyassy and keane. Two more reasons why bb should not be in the draft room on draft night!

Hello Mac, Stevenson, Harris, Dugger, Owenu, Barmore.. some opposing reasons as to why he possibly should

 

[Zuma]

Hello Mac, Stevenson, Harris, Dugger, Owenu, Barmore.. some opposing reasons as to why he possibly should

Those are very good draft picks. I think what Ochmed is saying (and I concur) is that Wolf and Groh have more of a say in draft picks then perhaps previous draft years. It's also my belief Caserio was not very good at evaluating talent...at least not at the college level.

 

[Ollie]

Those are very good draft picks. I think what Ochmed is saying (and I concur) is that Wolf and Groh have more of a say in draft picks then perhaps previous draft years. It's also my belief Caserio was not very good at evaluating talent...at least not at the college level.

Agreed, i just get so bored of the over simplistic black and white thinking. The reality is probably much more nuanced as you suggest with others having a lot of input including Bill himself but that narrative isn't as attractive to some as it doesn't feed the anti bill hysteria.

 

[Patsgofor4]

Trautman probably would have at least made this roster as TE3. He's not what people thought he'd be, but he's better than who we picked.

Yes, a little bit better, only because he is a good in-line blocker. 26/263/2 is very poor for a guy who was the Saints TE1 for most of the season, other than when he was injured. As bad as Asiasi was, and if you gave him the same number of passing game snaps, he probably could average 2 catches and 20 yards per game over 13 games, like Trautman did.

It was a terrible year for a team in need of a tight end and it’s possible that they drafted the two hoping that they would hit on one of them…Didn’t happen. If they had drafted Troutman (as many here wanted them to) and he ended up being their TE3, The Miserables here would still have blasted BB for wasting a day 2 pick.

Should they have filled the need in the 2019? Perhaps, but that has turned out to be another weak class. They weren’t going to take a TE/big WR who can’t block (Fant) in the first or second (Smith, pick 50) rounds. They may have liked Knox but he was drafted earlier than expected by the bills. He also did virtually nothing for two years until having a breakout season last year, during which he benefited from his elite QB and the overall talent on offense (didn’t have to be “the guy”). I still like Moreau, even though he hasn’t had a breakout year in the passing game. Tough motherf*cker.

 

[long distance]

Asiasi and Keene were obviously both whiffs but take a look at the entire 2020 TE class:
View attachment 44948

Woof. Kmet is the best of the bunch and his second year production is deceptive, as it was based mainly upon his target share, with a skill position group in Chicago so devoid of talent. 90 targets and no TDs for a TE is telling. Albert O had a promising 2nd year but 33 catches and 4 TDs is still pretty underwhelming. The rest of the TE class have busted., A lot of posters who are bashing BB would have been very happy if they had drafted Trautman, a pre-draft Patsfan binky and look how that would have turned out.

2. You dont draft weakest position in a solid Draft class. To double up is just typical BB forcing the zag
1. You don't put yourself in position that the weakest Draft position is your position of need.
3. Its cheap and relatively easy to get TE via FA or trade.

Pats mismanaged TE position ever since Martellus-Gronk ending.. and paid dearly last FA (which was a good thing on that market btw)

 

[captain stone]

I'm reading a ton of articles about the Patriots huge failure in taking Asiasi and Keene. But almost none of these articles go back and look at the underwhelming 3rd and 4th rounds. Very few players turned out, like a handful. Many of them 2 years later are on other teams. Only a few have been productive as starters.

We just signed a guy, Lynn Bowden, who was taken BEFORE all of our 3rd rounders.

Assy-assy & especially Never Seene shouldn't have been chosen where Bill, Nicky & Nike chose them... And under No Circumstances Whatsoever should assets have been expended to move UP in the draft to acquire them in the first place.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Assy-assy & especially Never Seene shouldn't have been chosen where Bill, Nicky & Nike chose them... And under No Circumstances Whatsoever should assets have been expended to move UP in the draft to acquire them in the first place.

Amen brother!

More wolf and less groh/bb in the draft room!

 

[NG Pats Fan]

Agree 100%.

Interesting article:

NFL Draft Pick Bust Rate Remains Very High

More analytics haven’t increased the success rate

www.dailynorseman.com

Gives stats about NFL draft picks:

• 16.7% didn’t play for the team that drafted them
• 37% were considered useless. They either didn’t play much or didn’t make the team.
• 15.3% were considered poor. Had limited playing time and didn’t do well in the time they had.
• 10.5% were considered average. These are mediocre players that had starts or significant contributions over 2-3 years.
• 12.3% were considered good. These could be mediocre or average players that were multi-year starters, Pat Elflein or Christian Ponder for example, or perhaps some genuinely good players that didn’t last all that long for the team that drafted them- Sidney Rice for example. This is where the AV metric can over-rate a player based on the number of starts, rather than their performance while on the field.
• 6.9% were considered Great. This category is the first that includes undeniably good draft picks. In order to be considered great, they would’ve had to play for the team that drafted them into a second contract, and also performed well over those years.
• 1% were considered legendary. These are future Hall of Famers, multi-year All-Pros among the best in the league for most of their relatively long careers.

And, so only about 8% of draft picks are players that really make much of a difference beyond replacement value, and only about 30% see much playing time or make a significant contribution to the team.​

So, very approximately, each round has 1/7th = 14.3% of the picks, so assuming perfect drafting (cough) only the first half of the first round "should" yield legendary (hall of fame) or great (second contract) players, mid first to mid second "should" be good (multi-year starter), mid second to mid third average (starts or contributions over 2-3 years), after that we're in the realm of poor or useless.

But, then, to bring it back to this thread, Asiasi was pick 91, NE's pick at the end of the 3rd round, so around 91/(7*32) or 40% in terms of draft position. That would place Asiasi right in the middle of the "poor" bucket above ("limited playing time and didn’t do well in the time they had"). And, that's exactly where he ended up. Yet so much butthurt about the "disaster" of him not working out. Sigh.

And if I really want to stir the pot, I'd point out that both Sony Michel and N'Keal Harry were/are average or mediocre multi-year starters, which is exactly what you'd expect from a LATE first round pick based on the quotes above.

People just like to cherry pick the few cases where things work out better than expectations to try to "prove" our drafting "sucks". It has little basis in reality. Yes, you can find disappointing draft picks, but, again, look at the stuff I quoted above. Most people simply have too high expectations, based on cherry picking good draft picks without factoring in bad draft picks (which every team has).

The NFL Draft sells hope, just like the Lotto, yet 70% of the players drafted aren't likely to be in the league after three seasons. Pointing that out would be a buzz kill, so no one in the Draft Industrial Complex does that.

I've produced the stats that show our drafting has been top 25% over a ten year period IF YOU FACTOR DRAFT POSITION into our results. Yet that doesn't conform to people's perceptions, so they dismiss it out of hand.

People love to rant about how the GOAT QB saved our bacon time after time (true!) but don't take it the next logical step, winning all those divisions, conferences, and SBs meant we had terrible drafting position. Somehow we're supposed to not just be a championship caliber team but also be able to keep adding great players. The fact we did over 20 years is not just a testament to the GOAT QB, but some pretty darn good team building too.

I LOLed when you mentioned Harry

Look at the wide receivers drafted AFTER Harry and compare their numbers to him

That year was historically a great class for wide receivers and Harry was by far the worst pick

 

[40yrpatsfan]

I think Asiasi was a decent pick (i.e. gamble) late in the 3rd. Aside from injuries, his trajectory was affected most by the Pats’ opportunity to acquire both Henry and Johnnu, which was unforeseen.

The Patriots wanted Asiasi back, and he was poached by a SB team. There’s a good chance he goes on to have a decent career.

 

[TomPatriot]

Agree 100%.

Interesting article:

NFL Draft Pick Bust Rate Remains Very High

More analytics haven’t increased the success rate

www.dailynorseman.com

Gives stats about NFL draft picks:

• 16.7% didn’t play for the team that drafted them
• 37% were considered useless. They either didn’t play much or didn’t make the team.
• 15.3% were considered poor. Had limited playing time and didn’t do well in the time they had.
• 10.5% were considered average. These are mediocre players that had starts or significant contributions over 2-3 years.
• 12.3% were considered good. These could be mediocre or average players that were multi-year starters, Pat Elflein or Christian Ponder for example, or perhaps some genuinely good players that didn’t last all that long for the team that drafted them- Sidney Rice for example. This is where the AV metric can over-rate a player based on the number of starts, rather than their performance while on the field.
• 6.9% were considered Great. This category is the first that includes undeniably good draft picks. In order to be considered great, they would’ve had to play for the team that drafted them into a second contract, and also performed well over those years.
• 1% were considered legendary. These are future Hall of Famers, multi-year All-Pros among the best in the league for most of their relatively long careers.

And, so only about 8% of draft picks are players that really make much of a difference beyond replacement value, and only about 30% see much playing time or make a significant contribution to the team.​

So, very approximately, each round has 1/7th = 14.3% of the picks, so assuming perfect drafting (cough) only the first half of the first round "should" yield legendary (hall of fame) or great (second contract) players, mid first to mid second "should" be good (multi-year starter), mid second to mid third average (starts or contributions over 2-3 years), after that we're in the realm of poor or useless.

But, then, to bring it back to this thread, Asiasi was pick 91, NE's pick at the end of the 3rd round, so around 91/(7*32) or 40% in terms of draft position. That would place Asiasi right in the middle of the "poor" bucket above ("limited playing time and didn’t do well in the time they had"). And, that's exactly where he ended up. Yet so much butthurt about the "disaster" of him not working out. Sigh.

And if I really want to stir the pot, I'd point out that both Sony Michel and N'Keal Harry were/are average or mediocre multi-year starters, which is exactly what you'd expect from a LATE first round pick based on the quotes above.

People just like to cherry pick the few cases where things work out better than expectations to try to "prove" our drafting "sucks". It has little basis in reality. Yes, you can find disappointing draft picks, but, again, look at the stuff I quoted above. Most people simply have too high expectations, based on cherry picking good draft picks without factoring in bad draft picks (which every team has).

The NFL Draft sells hope, just like the Lotto, yet 70% of the players drafted aren't likely to be in the league after three seasons. Pointing that out would be a buzz kill, so no one in the Draft Industrial Complex does that.

I've produced the stats that show our drafting has been top 25% over a ten year period IF YOU FACTOR DRAFT POSITION into our results. Yet that doesn't conform to people's perceptions, so they dismiss it out of hand.

People love to rant about how the GOAT QB saved our bacon time after time (true!) but don't take it the next logical step, winning all those divisions, conferences, and SBs meant we had terrible drafting position. Somehow we're supposed to not just be a championship caliber team but also be able to keep adding great players. The fact we did over 20 years is not just a testament to the GOAT QB, but some pretty darn good team building too.

I was looking for an article like this. Thanks!

I remember Ozzie with the Ravens being one of the best drafters and even he missed on several picks each year.

One problem in recent years is that Pats‘ drafts had no one who could really be considered good or better from 2017 through 2020. That changed a lot in 2021 with Mac, Barmore and Rham.

 

[Kasmir]

I remember Ozzie with the Ravens being one of the best drafters and even he missed on several picks each year.

His mistakes were probably a carryover of his being trained as a front office guy by BB at Cleveland.