Defer in overtime?

[BradyFTW!]

I think with a proven D, i would take the ball. With this team, do you trust them enough to give the ball to a Flacco or Manning on our defense??

Our D IS improving but I don't think we are there yet.

I would take that ball and my chances and place them on the bread and butter of this team.

IMHO

If we were dealing with 2003 rules, I think you could possibly make the case for kicking off if you had an excellent D and the wind strongly favored one side of the field. Post-2004, however, the rules are just slanted too heavily in the offense's favor to make this much of a debate.

 

[SoCal Bong]

You should automatically take the ball and try to get a TD. No other arguments. You either have the ball trying to score or you do not.

And that has worked 3 times out of 22 (13% success rate)

Hail Mary plays work about 15% of the time when there is less than 50 yards to go. Should a team be running this play on every down of the entire game once they cross mid-field? It has a higher success rate.

Again, you have to look at the numbers and assess the probability of each outcome, not just the best case scenario.

No offense to you or anyone else who is making these blanket statements, but if you read this analysis you will understand why it's not as simple as you might think primarily due to probability of scoring and field position.

I know I shouldn't care whether anyone is being open-minded about this topic or not but I already know that I am going to be quite annoyed by anyone throwing a fit once a coach (maybe BB) makes this decision which I do believe is going to happen, maybe soon.

 

[PlainOldEd]

And that has worked 3 times out of 22 (13% success rate)

Hail Mary plays work about 15% of the time when there is less than 50 yards to go. Should a team be running this play on every down of the entire game once they cross mid-field? It has a higher success rate.

Again, you have to look at the numbers and assess the probability of each outcome, not just the best case scenario.

No offense to you or anyone else who is making these blanket statements, but if you read this analysis you will understand why it's not as simple as you might think primarily due to probability of scoring and field position.

I know I shouldn't care whether anyone is being open-minded about this topic or not but I already know that I am going to be quite annoyed by anyone throwing a fit once a coach (maybe BB) makes this decision which I do believe is going to happen, maybe soon.

according to whom?

 

[SoCal Bong]

Advanced NFL Stats: Hail Mary Probabilities

 

[PlainOldEd]

Advanced NFL Stats: Hail Mary Probabilities

OK, this chart clearly proves nothing. First of all it indicates that you have a better chance from 80 yards than from 60, and even if you were going by this chart it drops below 15% at around 20 yards, at 50 yards the curve looks to be at about 2%.

 

[TPL]

And that has worked 3 times out of 22 (13% success rate)

Hail Mary plays work about 15% of the time when there is less than 50 yards to go. Should a team be running this play on every down of the entire game once they cross mid-field? It has a higher success rate.

Again, you have to look at the numbers and assess the probability of each outcome, not just the best case scenario.

No offense to you or anyone else who is making these blanket statements, but if you read this analysis you will understand why it's not as simple as you might think primarily due to probability of scoring and field position.

I know I shouldn't care whether anyone is being open-minded about this topic or not but I already know that I am going to be quite annoyed by anyone throwing a fit once a coach (maybe BB) makes this decision which I do believe is going to happen, maybe soon.

But if you read this analysis you will understand that:

100% of the coaches 22 of 22 (including our very own BB) after winning the coin toss have elected to receive the ball in OT.

59.1% of these coin toss winners have won the game.

I can see no logical, statistical or emotional circumstance where a coach would ever elect to kick off in OT.
Under extreme weather circumstances a coach may elect a goal to defend.

And I will be annoyed if BB ever does make this decision.
(unless it works and we win, then it will be okay)

 

[PatsDeb]

Defer in overtime?! Fuggedaboutit!

 

[SoCal Bong]

OK, this chart clearly proves nothing. First of all it indicates that you have a better chance from 80 yards than from 60, and even if you were going by this chart it drops below 15% at around 20 yards, at 50 yards the curve looks to be at about 2%.

You're focusing on the wrong thing. I could have used any example of things you don't do when the success rate is that low.

In any case, the chart does support my 15% success rate if you know how read it. Take all the data points up to 50 yards and you take the average which works out to 17% but round down for conservatism and margin of visual error. Since I mentioned always throwing the Hail Mary after crossing midfield, ignore everything beyond 50 yards.

1-10 yards: 41
11-20: 32
21-30: 3
31-40: 12
41-50: 0
Average: 17.6%

"clearly proves nothing" - why does everything have to be absolute?

This is a topic that can be debated and therefore is open to varying opinions. Do you really think the author of the article would have spent the time and effort doing the analysis if it were so clear cut?

 

[jbb9s]

coin toss winner is 13-8-1... that's all the evidence you need that taking the ball is working.

Sample size of 22 games with effective 2.5 game outcome differential? Statistically insignificant.

Also, strip out all the wins that didn't occur in the first possession and it becomes even less relevant.

 

[TPL]

Sample size of 22 games with effective 2.5 game outcome differential? Statistically insignificant.

Also, strip out all the wins that didn't occur in the first possession and it becomes even less relevant.

What is relevant is that you need to score to win.
In order to score you need to possess the ball. (with the exception of a safety)

What ever decision is made to increase your chances to possess the ball, I'm in favour of.

 

[Patsrock]

Advanced NFL Stats: Hail Mary Probabilities

I would like to actually see the data, not a chart. He doesn't show his work. Always told in school to show your work.

 

[condon84]

I can only imagine how people's head would explode if we get in a scenario during the playoffs were we are in overtime, Bill decides to defer, our defense gives up a first possession TD, and we end our season without giving our offense a chance. Bill gets away with a lot of high risk decisions compared to other coaches and rightfully so because of his unequaled resume, but if this scenario where to happen, he'd get crucified.

 

[jbb9s]

this argument for deferral is a tough one to make - and I'm not going to try - but there is a statistical glimmer of hope., depending on how good any particular team's offense and defense are. Clearly the conventional wisdom approach will overshadow any alter strategy since the downside of failure would be so glaring.

But just consider for a moment 75-80% of this board fully supported BB when he went for 4th and 2 against the Colts. Same % supported BB when he went for 4th and 12 in lieu of a Ghost attempt in that 18-1 SB in perfect weather.

In my opinion, those two decisions are harder to defend than deferral or at least equally as difficult.

I'm sure you all watched Kelly tonight go for 2 pt conversion on the 1st TD of the game. Expected value of that strategy is greater than going for the xtra pt every time.

We might see him twice next year maybe in Buffalo. Sounds like an intriguing game day thread.

 

[Bhelmet]

coin toss winner is 13-8-1... that's all the evidence you need that taking the ball is working.

That is WAY too small a sample - 59% to 36% with a margin of error of +/-20%.