Except the very top of the draft (and then again, look at Courtney Brown, Tim Couch, David Carr, and too many others to mention...) the whole draft is a crapshoot.
But some guys always leave the craps shoot with a few extra bucks, and some other guys just throw away the paycheck. Ya wonder how that works.
Let's take a look at what constitutes a crapshoot, divided into P = Productive, N = not productive, and * = too early to tell (for recent years.) I want to look at rounds 4-8 (for those years with a round 7 and 8,) specifically for the Pats, 1993 on. I'll bold the real gold-mine finds in late rounds. Especially for some old timers I'm going by memory, so feel free to correct me on my ratings. Picks courtesy NFL.Com:
(
http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/teams/NE)
1993:
Rd4 Kevin Johnson (N), Corwin Brown (N)
Rd5 Scott Sisson (P), Richard Griffith (N)
Rd6 Lawrence Hatch (N)
Rd8 Troy Brown (P)
synopsis, struck gold once, got a serviceable kicker.
1994:
Rd4 John Burke (N)
Rd5 Pat O'Neill (N) (?) He was a punter - did he start for a while?
Rd6 Steve Hawkins (N), but I loved "A Brief History of Time"
Rd6 Max Lane (N)
Rd 7 Jay Walker (N), swear to God, that's his name.
Rd 7 Marty Moore (N)
synopsis: whiff, except maybe a punter.
1995:
Rd4 Dave Wohlabaugh (P)
Rd6 Dino Philyaw (N)
Rd7 Carlos Yancy (N) but I did find an article saying he got beat on a deep route by Yancey Thigpen, which is 2 more Yanceys than are in most NFL plays.
synopsis: Dave Wohlabaugh has had a long pro center career, and I'd call him late-round gold, except the round wasn't that late and other teams got most of the gold.
1996
Rd4 Heath Irwin (P)
Rd4 Chris Sullivan (N)(?) Defensive end - was still on the Pats in 01 as a backup, busted for heroin in 2005 (trivia.)
Rd4 Kantroy Barber (N)
Rd5 John Elmore (N)
Rd5 Christian Peter (N)
Rd6 Chris Griffin (N)
Rd6 Marrio Grier (N)
Rd6 Devin Wyman (N)
Rd7 Lovett Purnell (N) (?) Don't think so... but somehow remember the name
Rd7 J.R. Conrad (N)
Synopsis: A couple of Rd 4 linemen were serviceable as roster members. That's it.
1997
Rd 4 Damon Denson (N)
Rd 4 ed Ellis (N)
Rd 5 Vernon Crawford (N)
Rd 6 Tony Gaiter (N)
Rd 7 Scott Rehberg (N)
Synopsis: whiff.
1998
Rd 4 Leonta Rheams (N) and not sure this is a
guy's name
Rd 5 Ron Merkerson (N)
Rd 6 Harold Shaw (N)
Rd 7 Jason Andersen (N)
Synopsis: Survey says, NNNNNNT!
1999
Rd 5 Derrick Fletcher (N)
Rd 6 Marcus Washington (N)
Rd 7 Michael Bishop (N)
but he coulda been a contenda!
Rd 7 Sean Morey (N)
Synopsis: goose egg
2000
Rd 4 Greg Randell (P) (marginally)
Rd 5 Dave Stachelski (N)
Rd 5 Jeff Marriott (N)
Rd 6 Antwan Harris (P) (marginal), played backup or nickel back for a few years here, judging from stats. Don't really remember him.
Rd 6 Tom Brady (P) Well you knew this was coming.
Rd 6 David Nugent (N)
Rd 7 Casey Tisdale (N)
Rd 7 Patrick Pass (P) come on, not a superstar, but Pass at 7 is a gem.
Synopsis: This draft is the reason we won 3 super bowls. Specifically, the second day of this draft. But of course it was mainly 1 guy.
2001
Rd 4 Kenyatta Jones (N) this guy was not even the best Kenyatta in his draft class.
Rd 4 Jabari Holloway (N)
Rd 5 Hakim Akbar (N)
Rd 6 Arther Love (N)
Rd 6 Leonard Myers (N)
Rd 7 Owen Pochman (P), just not for us. Uh, we already had a kicker.
Rd 7 TJ Turner (N)
Synopsis: You could make arguments for Jones and Holloway, but neither was much use on the field. Pochman kicked for somebody for a while. It was no 2000, I'll say that.
2002
Rd 4 Rohan Davey (N) But the best QB named for a country in a Tolkein book ever.
Rd 4 Jarvis Green (P) All he does is make plays. When he's not stuck behind the best 3 D-linemen in the league.
Rd 7 Antoine Womack (N)
Rd 7 David Givens (P) are you kiddin me?
Synopsis: It'll be hard to ever hit like the 2000 late rounds
2003
Rd 4 Dan Klecko (P), borderline for us, real productive recently against us.
Rd 4 Asante Samuel (P) You know this guy's deal by now.
Rd 5 Dan Koppen (P) People are starting to talk about him being near-elite.
Rd 6 Kliff Kingsbury (N) He's no Rohan Davey but... well okay useless.
Rd 7 Spencer Nead (N) (?) Is he still out there? Give him a *?
Rd 7 Tully Banta-Cain (P) He produced great for a 7, but you can't call him "late round gold."
Rd 7 Ethan Kelly (N)
Synopsis: Excellent day 2, netting 4 productive players, 3 of whom started for good stretches in NE. Koppen and Samuel have pro-bowl potential.
2004
Rd 4 Dexter Reid (P) eh, he's okay for a 4th rounder. Still in the league.
Rd 4 Cedric Cobbs (N)
Rd 5 PK Sam (N) He's no Hart Lee Dykes.
Rd 7 Christian Morton (N)
Synopsis: Got Watson and Wilfork on day 1. Really shoulda stayed home for day 2.
2005
Rd 4 James Sanders (*)
Rd 5 Ryan Claridge (N)
Rd 7 Matt Cassel (*) We all want him to be to Brady as Young was to Montana. We all also want to win the lottery. We'll see... hopefully a very long time from now.
Rd 7 Andy Stokes (N) Mr. Irrelevant
Synopsis: really too soon to tell on this day 2 - might have been a good one.
2006
Rd 4 Garrett Mills (*) But we all have high hopes
Rd 4 Stephen Gostkowski (P) Played like an old vet, including long kicks under AFC Championship and playoffs pressure.
Rd 5 Ryan O'Callaghan (*)
Rd 6 Jeremy Mincey (N) (?) Waived. does he still have a shot at an asterisk?
Rd 6 Dan Stevenson (N) Released
Rd 6 Le Kevin Smith (*)
Rd 7 Willie Andrews (*) some potential.
synopsis: good second day, on the strength of Gost alone, definitely filled the AV gap, supposedly a huge question mark for the offseaon. A lot of possibles here as well.
Conclusion:
1993-1999 (1st half of study):
N (Non productives): 34
P (productives): 4
"Gold strikes": 1, and we still love ya, Troy!
2000-2006 (2nd half of study):
N (Non-productive) 22
P (productive) 13
"Gold Strikes": 6 - but includes role-players like Pass (for example,) as well as full-on phenomenal picks like Givens, Brady, and Samuel.
Let me repeat the caveat: I did this mainly from the list and my faulty memory, and welcome any corrections.
But I do not think the difference in second-day success is purely the product of my wacky memory. At any rate, if this list serves, I really do not think NE will have a problem finding value with the 5/6/6/7 we got in the comp picks (even if it means trading up for a 4 -- if in fact that's even necessary)
PFnV