Colts at Patriots: Expert Picks

[Dagg]

I still think Pitt wins, after all Pitt still can stop the run and they will. That means its on Jason Campbells back. Thats not a good place to be...

 

[Kontradiction]

I still think Pitt wins, after all Pitt still can stop the run and they will. That means its on Jason Campbells back. Thats not a good place to be...

If the Raiders are smart, they'll do what we did which is sometimes dedicate three bodies to blocking Casey Hampton and taking him out of the play.

 

[Dufflebagz]

Looking similar to the picks from last week. Let's just hope for the same result.

So, you want the Colts to win???

 

[Ron Sellers]

Both Pro Football Talk guys go with the Pats.

PFT’s Week 11 picks | ProFootballTalk

Colts at Patriots

Florio’s take: After losing six straight to the Pats from 2001 through 2004, the Colts have taken five of six from New England. It’s time for a correction, especially since this year’s version of the November sweeps special will be played in Foxboro. The Pats looked as potent as ever in Pittsburgh, and the Colts couldn’t deliver the knockout punch to a staggering Bengals team.

Florio’s pick: Patriots 27, Colts 21.

Rosenthal’s take: This game never gets old. Even though the last five meetings have been decided by one score, the Colts have won five of the last six meetings. Something has to give because Tom Brady has won 24 straight starts at home, one away from Brett Favre’s record. Take away all the history and you see New England’s passing attack is operating more efficiently. The Colts’ offensive line is shakier than usual and Peyton Manning is averaging 5.65 yards per attempt in his last 3 games. I like the Pats just a bit more on grass. [Editor's note: Rosenthal is not claiming that the Patriots are "on grass." We think.]

Rosenthal’s pick: Patriots 34, Colts 31.

What If Sports has the Colts winning 57.5% of the time by an average score of 22-20 - though in their graphic it is 54% of the time by a score of 19.0-18.2 Apparently they ran a few more simulations since they wrote the story.
2010 NFL Week 11 Picks and Predictions from Whatifsports.com From WhatIfSports.com
2010 NFL Week 11 - Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots From WhatIfSports.com

New England and Indianapolis seem to be the two franchises impervious to NFL parity. In the past decade, the Patriots and Colts have combined for 227 wins and have represented the AFC six times in the Super Bowl. Quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are widely considered the two best signal callers in the league, and Bill Belichick and Bill Polian are second to none in evaluating talent.

It's in this regard that the almost-yearly New England and Indianapolis battles have become the NFL's greatest non-divisional rivalry of the 21st century. In their last ten meetings, the squads have split the series 5-5, although Indianapolis has won five of the past six contests (including the 2006 AFC Championship).

The Pats and Colts come into this year's skirmish will similar backdrops in 2010. Each squad avenged disappointing performances in Week 9 by securing victories in Week 10. Both lead their respective divisions (7-2 Pats are tied with New York in the East and the 6-3 Colts hold a one game advantage over Tennessee in the South) despite multiple injury and roster alterations. And the two are uncharacteristically awful on defense this season (Indianapolis is 29th in rushing while New England is 30th in passing).

For Indianapolis, the offensive equation is the same as it's been the entire Manning Era: attack through the air. Yet even by Manning's enormously high standards, the 2010 campaign has been impressive. It's not that the former Tennessee Volunteer is posting ridiculous passing figures, but how. Manning has thrown for 2,663 yards and 16 touchdowns despite the prolonged absences of Joseph Addai, security blanket Dallas Clark and wideouts Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon and Anthony Gonzalez. Put it this way: only Manning could make Jacob Tamme a fantasy commodity.

Of course, Tom Brady hasn't exactly been provided a stable of stars to work with either. After jettisoning noted discontent Randy Moss, Brady and the Pats returned to their aerial assault strategy during their Super Bowl days: mainly, to spread the ball around to multiple receivers. And the recipients of Brady's targets? The recently re-acquired Deion Branch, second-year WR Brandon Tate, rookie tight-ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, and practice squad-signee Danny Woodhead. Let's just say these wideouts won't be referred to as a Murderer's Row anytime soon. Granted, former All-Pro Wes Welker has been effective as of late, but the lingering effects of the receiver's injury are still prominent.

As mentioned, both teams have struggled on defense. Although New England and Indianapolis tend to favor a "bend-but-don't-break" philosophy, injuries can be attributed to their pedestrian performance on D. The Colts have been without leader Bob Sanders and have lost safety Melvin Bullet for the season, while New England has been making due without the services of defensive clog Ty Warren and cornerback Leigh Bodden.

So who wins this clash of the AFC's elite? According to the WhatIfSports NFL simulation engine, the Colts win 57.5-percent of the time, by an average score of 22-20.

Sporting News is 7-0 for the Pats.
NFL Football Picks - Sporting News
31-27 - Vinnie Iyer
31-27 - Dennis Dillon
30-24 - Steve Greenburg
26-24 - Clifton Brown
23-17 - Todd Wright
25-23 - Real Scouts
31-24 - Russ Lande

Week 11 picks: Colts-Pats tops reunions and rivalries - NFL - Sporting News
Video: sportingnewssuperstoryplayer

AFC Game of the Week

Indianapolis at New England (-3). When it comes down to it, noting all the personnel issues, this is really Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady. At home, take the three-time Super Bowl champ over the four-time MVP.
Patriots 31, Colts 27.

 

[SVN]

NFL Picks and Predictions for Week 11 - National Football League - ESPN

Hoge is the only ESPNer to pick so far, but he's going with the Pats.

all but 2 pick pats now..unfortunately jaws was the only one who picked us last week.

 

[Dutchmaster617]

The NFLN guys are at it again, I know I say this every week but it seems like its them or Mike & Mike everyday. Here is some of the bulletin board material:

Deion Sanders after cutting off the question (if Pats are best in AFC) 'NO, I still like the Jets, they can do this, and do that and this and that (I guess we can't do anything)

'They are not like the usual BB coached team' (7 and freaking 2, what is a BB team supposed to be? 9-0, we are improved from last season and tied in first)

'They are the best, FOR THIS WEEK' (implying we lose against Indy)

'They lost to Browns' REALLY? I completely forgot, god forbid the lovely Jets lose to an underdog.

Faulk: 'The Steelers were banged up' (seriously did you forget Kevin Faulk, the guy who won a title against your Rams 9 years ago?)

These same idiots had Pittsburgh ranked first without Ben, they almost went 4-0 without him but without Hines Ward they are 'banged up'? Suddenly they don't have depth? I can't wait until we beat Indy and the talk becomes 'oh Peyton has no help, it wasn't impressive, Jets beating a weak HOU team that Peyton just shredded will be a gift from god though.

 

[Kasmir]

I like the Pats just a bit more on grass. [Editor's note: Rosenthal is not claiming that the Patriots are "on grass." We think.]

Well, they couldn't have been referring to Field Turf, could they?

 

[Kontradiction]

The NFLN guys are at it again, I know I say this every week but it seems like its them or Mike & Mike everyday. Here is some of the bulletin board material:

Deion Sanders after cutting off the question (if Pats are best in AFC) 'NO, I still like the Jets, they can do this, and do that and this and that (I guess we can't do anything)

'They are not like the usual BB coached team' (7 and freaking 2, what is a BB team supposed to be? 9-0, we are improved from last season and tied in first)

'They are the best, FOR THIS WEEK' (implying we lose against Indy)

'They lost to Browns' REALLY? I completely forgot, god forbid the lovely Jets lose to an underdog.

Faulk: 'The Steelers were banged up' (seriously did you forget Kevin Faulk, the guy who won a title against your Rams 9 years ago?)

These same idiots had Pittsburgh ranked first without Ben, they almost went 4-0 without him but without Hines Ward they are 'banged up'? Suddenly they don't have depth? I can't wait until we beat Indy and the talk becomes 'oh Peyton has no help, it wasn't impressive, Jets beating a weak HOU team that Peyton just shredded will be a gift from god though.

Yeah, I saw that. I've always thought that Faulk had an anti-Pats agenda (in this case, I agree... the Steelers WERE banged up, but so were we if you think about it), but it's really looking as if Deion Sanders is starting to get one too. Pretty disgusting display. The guys they have on there are a huge reason why I don't watch them on gamedays unless it's Thursday Night Football and there's nothing better on to watch. On Sundays, I watch the CBS Pregame show. Easily the best out of the bunch, IMO.

 

[Froob]

Yeah, I saw that. I've always thought that Faulk had an anti-Pats agenda (in this case, I agree... the Steelers WERE banged up, but so were we if you think about it), but it's really looking as if Deion Sanders is starting to get one too. Pretty disgusting display. The guys they have on there are a huge reason why I don't watch them on gamedays unless it's Thursday Night Football and there's nothing better on to watch. On Sundays, I watch the CBS Pregame show. Easily the best out of the bunch, IMO.

In 07 during the patriots-colts pregame he said the colts were better at every single position, OL QB WR Def and ST). I think he's still butthurt over superbowl 36.

 

[Scouse Patriot]

Faulk's always been against the Pats. Indy could field their cheerleaders on sunday and he'd still back them to win.

 

[RobertWeathers]

In 07 during the patriots-colts pregame he said the colts were better at every single position, OL QB WR Def and ST). I think he's still butthurt over superbowl 36.

Marshall Faulk should not be on tv. The man's opinions and assessments border on buffoonery.

 

[Dutchmaster617]

Its not just Faulk, these 'experts' treat us like we are the Lions. Its funny to me, I fully believe its because of the hype they gave us before losing in 07, they don't want to look stupid again. (although they always do anyways.)

 

[Ron Sellers]

Some more of the espn picks are up now: NFL Picks and Predictions for Week 11 - National Football League - ESPN
It's 8-2 Pats over the Colts.
Allen, Golic, Hoge, Mortensen, Schefter, Schlereth, Accuscore and Pick'em (fans) go with the Pats while Jaworski and Wickersham take Indy.

The Sunday Countdown crew's picks are not up yet.

Madden Simulator: Video Games - EA Sports Simulations - ESPN

In a battle that has been billed as Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning, you expect greatness. What you don't expect is a pick-six thrown by Brady becoming the most important pass of the game. But that's what happened, as Kelvin Hayden returned an interception 42 yards to the house in the Colts' 24-19 victory.

Accuscore: NFL Projections and Simulations - National Football League - ESPN
Pats win 59% of the time, by an average score of 27.4 to 24.4.
Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots 11/21/2010 | AccuScore

More on the Accuscore predictions: Video: Patriots-Steelers AccuScore report - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

* Overall, the Patriots won 59 percent of 10,000 AccuScore simulations of Sunday’s game against the Colts by an average score of about 25-17.

* According to the simulations, Peyton Manning is projected to throw for more than 300 yards, 2 touchdowns and is completing 65 percent of his passes.

* Brady’s completion percentage in the simulations is 70 percent. If Brady throws 2 touchdowns and no more than 1 interception, the Patriots win 73 percent of the time in the simulated games.

* If the Colts can hold the Patriots to less than 4 yards per carry, and the defense sacks Brady at least 3 times, then the Colts are 70 percent favorites.

* According to the simulations, when the Colts' defense only gets to Brady once, the Pats are 66 percent favorites.

Bruschi's Breakdown: Expect New England Patriots to develop consistency against the Indianapolis Colts - ESPN Boston
Bruschi and Reiss both predict the Pats will win.

Mike: As for a prediction, I'm going with the Patriots at home, where they play some of their best football. Quarterback Tom Brady has won his last 24 regular-season home starts, and with a win Sunday will tie Brett Favre's home regular-season win streak, which is the longest in the NFL. In a game where every possession figures to be precious for teams, I'll go Patriots 27, Colts 20.

Tedy]/b]: You honestly have to ask yourself which team will show up? The team that laid an egg in Cleveland or the team that looked the NFL's best in Pittsburgh? I am going with the latter. This team will start to show some winning consistency. Patriots 28, Colts 24.

Insiders' Picks - Showtime Sports
Phil Simms does not make a pick, broadcasting the game.
Cris Collinsworth takes the Patriots; Warren Sapp takes the Colts.



NFL Picks Week 11: Raiders, Steelers Renew 'Immaculate' Rivalry -- NFL FanHouse

Patriots (-3) 27, Colts 21
This one has a history, too -- this will be the 11th meeting in eight seasons, a bundle for teams that aren't in the same division any longer. And like Pittsburgh-Oakland, there's history, like Bill Belichick going for it on fourth down to keep Peyton off the field last season. Didn't work, and the Pats lost for the fourth time in the last five meetings.

Not this time with most of Peyton's weapons injured.

WalterFootball.com: NFL Picks Against the Spread - Week 11, 2010
Colts 30, Patriots 27

RECAP: I like the Colts for a medium-sized play for the simple fact that we're getting Peyton Manning as an underdog. Manning is 13-3 against the spread getting points since 2003.

 

[derF]

Some more of the espn picks are up now: NFL Picks and Predictions for Week 11 - National Football League - ESPN
It's 8-2 Pats over the Colts.
Allen, Golic, Hoge, Mortensen, Schefter, Schlereth, Accuscore and Pick'em (fans) go with the Pats while Jaworski and Wickersham take Indy.

Jaws musta woke up...he changed his Pick to the Pats!

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Has anyone ever seen such a consensus of expert picks on a game with a spread of only 3.5 points (essential home field and nothing else)???

The Colts bogus "woe is me, we are all hurt" PR campaign seems to be working. The media will declare it a "Manning miracle" if the game is even close and never notice that the Patriots have lost just as many or more starters and key players to injury as the Colts. Dallas Clark counts and Ty Warren and Leigh Bodden don't, since Dallas went out in October rather than August?

 

[SVN]

NFL Videos: Who has the edge: Brady or Manning?

rod woodson picks the colts

 

[Ron Sellers]

More from espn:


Sunday Countdown: Your weekly NFL guide - ESPN
The Sunday Countdown crew - Ditka, Keyshawn, Cris Carter, Tom Jackson - all pick New England to win.

NFL Picks and Predictions for Week 11 - National Football League - ESPN
As noted earlier, Jaworski changed his mind making it 9-1 for the Pats, with only Seth Wickersham taking the Colts.

NFL Football Scouting - National Football League - ESPN
Ken Moll of Scouts Inc has it Pats 24, Colts 23.

Bill Simmons: Los Angeles Lakers top team in West - ESPN
Bill Simmons has the Pats not just winning, but covering the 4-point spread.

In my John Kreese voice: "Finish them! FINISH THEM!" You know what really frightens me? This is the most confident I've felt going into a Colts-Pats game in like seven years. Crap. Now I'm getting nervous …

Video: Predictions from Bruschi, Schlereth - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston
On NFL Live both Schlereth and Bruschi give their reasons why the Pats will win.

Mark Schlereth: Patriots
(Bruschi’s reaction: “That’s right Stink!”)
“[The Patriots are] still a spread offense that doesn’t have a power identity as far as running the ball, but they are running it just well enough to keep that passing game going and they’re healthy at the wide receiver position, they’re getting in synch with their quarterback. Love the leadership on the sideline of Tom Brady, getting after that offense, saying ‘Guys, we’ve got to be perfect against these Steelers.’ I like what they’ve got going on right now. The Indianapolis Colts have so many injuries on the offensive side of the ball.”

Tedy Bruschi: Patriots
“What [the Patriots’ defense] needed to be successful this year was development from some of those younger players, and there’s one in particular: Patrick Chung. He’s showing up all over the field, on special teams, on defense, in run support, in pass coverage. Reminds me of a young Lawyer Milloy. I know that’s a lot to live up to but Chung has that ability. He’s one of those new leaders to watch for on this defense."

Bruschi's Breakdown: Expect New England Patriots to develop consistency against the Indianapolis Colts - ESPN Boston

Mike Reiss: As for a prediction, I'm going with the Patriots at home, where they play some of their best football. Quarterback Tom Brady has won his last 24 regular-season home starts, and with a win Sunday will tie Brett Favre's home regular-season win streak, which is the longest in the NFL. In a game where every possession figures to be precious for teams, I'll go Patriots 27, Colts 20.

Tedy Bruschi: You honestly have to ask yourself which team will show up? The team that laid an egg in Cleveland or the team that looked the NFL's best in Pittsburgh? I am going with the latter. This team will start to show some winning consistency. Patriots 28, Colts 24.

Schefter on D&C: Can't underestimate Colts
Adam Schefter has the Pats beating the Colts.

Speaking to The Dennis & Callahan Show, ESPN's Adam Schefter offered a warning regarding the Patriots' upcoming opponent, the injury-riddled Indianapolis Colts. "I look at them as a team as long as they have that quarterback [Peyton Manning] they have a chance," Schefter said. "They're not as good, I don't think, as some of the other Colts teams in recent years, but that's probably as much due to injury as anything else."

 

[Ron Sellers]

Globe 10.0 - Sports video with Bob Ryan - Boston.com
Bob Ryan has the Pats winning 31-28; Kevin DuPont takes the Pats 28-24.


Patriots-Colts Rivalry Picks Up Again in Foxboro in Possible Playoff Preview - Kicking Off - NESN.com
Jeff Howe is leaning towards the Pats.

OUTLOOK

When the Patriots are on point, like they were in Pittsburgh, they look like a team that's going to be awfully tough to beat. Since they've gotten better as the season has gone on, save for that mess in Cleveland, there are a lot of reasons to like their chances against the Colts, who have been decimated by injuries and might not be as good as their record really indicates.

Max Lane: Peyton Manning Is a 'Piece of Art' (Video) - NESN Daily - NESN.com
Both Max Lane and David Givens expect a high scoring game; Givens predicts the Pats will win 34-28.


Week 11 NFL Picks Have Trouble Dealing With Weak NFC West - NFL - NESN.com
Michael Hurley is betting the chalk.

NEW ENGLAND (-3) over Indianapolis
The Patriots aren't quite as dominant as they looked Sunday night, yet somehow, this matchup lacks the allure that your standard Pats-Colts game is supposed to have. That may have to do with the fact that Manning's been throwing the ball to a local flag football team (no offense meant to Jacob Tamme). That, and the Colts are thoroughly average on the road, and the Patriots still haven't lost at home since 2006.

The only bizarre part of this game is that it's not on in prime time. That breaks an unofficial streak of 77 years that the two teams had going. Al Michaels and John Madden actually called that game.

patriots - Week 11 NFL Picks: Can the Patriots solve Peyton Manning? - WEEI | Kirk Minihane
Kirk Minihane is going with the Pats to win and also cover too.

NEW ENGLAND (-3) over Indianapolis

Doesn't seem like there is a ton of juice surrounding this one. Don't know, just feels like a Manning-Brady game should be a bigger event. Again, these are two of the five best quarterbacks in history at pretty close to the absolute peak of their powers. Maybe we'll get that two, three more times?

NFL Picks: Week 11 | CSNNE
Rich Levine joins the chalkfest.

The Game: Indianapolis at New England (-3.5)

I keep hearing about all the injuries; about how the Colts aren't the same team and are ripe for a beating. But at the same time, I still see names like Manning, Wayne, Freeney and Mathis and can't help but hold on to some level of trepidation.

But this rivalry comes down to is home field, and it's been a while since the Pats have had it. They play the Colts every year, yet this is the first time since Week 9 of the 2006 season that Indy has visited Gillette. It's about time. And it's the perfect time. Despite the fact that the Colts are still very dangerous, it's clear that they're not currently at their best. And it's hard to imagine a time this season when the Pats have been more confident and in-tune with what they can do.

The Pick: Pats (-3.5)

Quick Picks: Curran likes the Pats | CSNNE
97% of CSNNE's viewers take the Pats (-3).
Tom Curran joins the homers and also takes the Pats against the spread.

 

[JustEndTheSeason]

NFL Picks and Predictions for Week 11 - National Football League - ESPN

Everyone but 1 guy picked the Pats.

That is a bad sign. I have found that when all the experts heavily favor one team, that one team's chances of loosing double.

 

[Nikolai]

So, you want the Colts to win???

I guess I saw people picking the Pats in a close one, more than I saw people picking the Steelers. Maybe I'm remembering wrong. :confused2:

I don't care enough about this to go back and look.