Colts at Patriots: Expert Picks

[Ron Sellers]

Wow, I'm surprised that every Colt beat reporter is going against the Colts.
I would have thought at least one would take Indy.

How we see it | IndyStar.com | The Indianapolis Star

Mike Chappell: Patriots 31, Colts 20
Timing is everything, in life and in the NFL, and this seems to be a bad time for the Colts to be venturing into hostile Foxborough. First, well, you know what’s first. The Colts are missing just too many key components. Until the offense gets healthy, Peyton Manning is going to struggle. That’s going to place an inordinate load on a defense that isn’t exactly putting its best personnel on the field, either. And then there’s the fact Tom Brady and the Patriots are coming off a dominant performance at Pittsburgh. Maybe the resilient Colts find a way, but .....

Phil Richards: Patriots 27, Colts 20
At some point, the injuries achieve critical mass. They have. Or rather they did last week, but the Colts found a way to beat the Bengals, who were much more interested in beating themselves. The Patriots are not. The Colts are going on the road to face an equally resourceful but healthy team amid a 6-1 streak. That’s tough duty. The Colts should get a batch of players back over the next couple of weeks, for San Diego and Dallas, and if they can win their home games and steal one at Tennessee or Oakland, they’re 11-5. That would be a 8season of high achievement.

Phillip B. Wilson: Patriots 30, Colts 20
At some point, enough is enough with all the 8injuries. Yeah, they aren’t supposed to be an excuse, but they don’t help you win, either, especially on the road and against one of the NFL’s best teams. There’s no questioning the Colts’ determination. That they are 6-3 is a testament to that. But while Tom Brady is carving up Pittsburgh’s Blitzburg defense, Peyton Manning is trying to get on the same page with Brandon James and squeeze whatever he can out of a sputtering running game. Time to turn in the homer card and pick the other guys.

Bob Kravitz: Patriots 27, Colts 17
Did you see what the Patriots did to the Steelers in Pittsburgh? I’ve watched enough football to know that one week doesn’t necessarily translate to the next week (i.e.,: the Pats losing to Cleveland one week earlier), but the Patriots look right now like the best team in football. And let’s be honest: This isn’t the kind of Colts team that usually heads into lovely Foxborough. Unless about six guys have miracle recoveries and return to action, I don’t see how the Colts pull this one off.

Patriots-Colts preview: Pats have a leg up this time | CSNNE | Tom E Curran

Patriots 31, Colts 21

Too much positive momentum offensively for the Patriots after last week's game (if not for penalties and drops, the win would have been more decisive in Pittsburgh). Indy's still trying to find its identity. And the Gillette Stadium crowd is in full throat to unnerve Manning.

Boston Globe | Eric Wilbur

Patriots 34, Colts 27. If the playoffs started today, the Patriots - tied with the Jets and Falcons for the best record in the NFL - would remarkably be the fifth seed in the AFC, and headed on the road for a wild card game. After Sunday, that scenario could remain the same, but the Colts, with a loss, would move into a three-way tie for first in the South with the Titans (vs. Washington) and Jaguars (vs. Cleveland). In fact, no division-leader in the NFL has more than a one-game lead, and divisions have ties at the top. There is no clear-cut favorite, but after these back-to-back weeks, the Patriots will stake that claim.

Cheat Sheet: NFL Week 11 preview and picks - NFL News | FOX Sports on MSN

Indianapolis at New England: Peyton Manning and Tom Brady — numbers 7 and 21, respectively, on NFL Films' recent "Top 100" all-time players list — are in the midst of arguably the very best campaigns of their pro careers this season. In Sunday's 23-17 Colts win over Cincinnati, Manning's offensive weapons included such NFL luminaries as tight ends Jacob Tamme (who?) and Gijon Robinson (who?), undrafted rookie Brandon James (who?), second-year running back Donald Brown and an undrafted running back named Javarris James. Brady, meanwhile, led the Pats to 39 points against the league's top defensive unit, including three touchdown passes to rookie Rob Gronkowski. This annual pre-Thanksgiving battle always comes down to the final minute. Gimme the Patriots at home with Brady saving his best for last.

The Pick: Patriots 30, Colts 27

Colts-Patriots is NFL Game of the Week - Kerry J. Byrne - SI.com

In their past five games, the Patriots beat three AFC Super Bowl favorites: Baltimore, San Diego and Pittsburgh.

The Colts, meanwhile, last enjoyed a victory over a team with a winning record back on Oct. 10, when they bested the Chiefs (now 5-4) at home, 19-9.

New England remains vulnerable on defense. But we like their ability to control the tempo -- as they have against most opponents in recent weeks -- against a team with a porous run defense.

Even a week ago, we might have liked the Colts to win and win big. But given the injuries and the recent struggles on offense, we think the Patriots will have just enough in the tank to keep alive their incredible streak of regular-season wins at Gillette.

Regardless of who wins, the 2010 season could mark the seventh time in 10 seasons that the winner of the Colts-Patriots regular-season series represents the AFC in the Super Bowl.

New England 27, Indianapolis 26

 

[102 Pat]

That's really saying something with regards to the Indy writers picking against the Colts. I know that everybody has injuries to deal with, but could they effect things with regards to the game tomorrow? Or maybe Polian put them up to it? :bricks:

 

[Kontradiction]

Did you guys hear that the Colts have injuries?

 

[Ron Sellers]

NFL Staff Picks - NY Daily News
Against the spread (Pats minus 3) it is 5 to 3 in favor of New England.
Jim Rich, Ralph Vacchiano, Hank Gola, Kevin Armstrong and Manish Mehta take the Pats, while Bill Gallo, Gary Myers and Mighty Quinn take the points.

Sean Brennan like the Pats in a high scoring game.
NFL Week 11 Bettor's Guide: Giants' injuries, Eagles' ball-hawking defense make Philly a sure thing - NY Daily News

You have to admire the job the Colts have done as they've gone through more adversity than a driver on "Ice Road Truckers." Jacob Tamme? Blair White? (Who are Peyton Manning's new wide receivers, Alex)? Yup, Manning has a way of taking any old walk-on and turning him into a household name (among Fantasy Football owners, at least). The Patriots have no such problems, though. Tom Brady and Co. are coming off a solid win in Pittsburgh - no easy feat there - and heading home, where they are not only unbeaten, but where Brady has won his last 24 regular-season starts. Brady even has his own unknown who is quickly becoming, well, known, in tight end Rob Gronkowski, who caught three TD passes last week.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Patriots (-3) and the over (50½).

New York Post writers are 6-4 in favor of the Pats covering a 3½ point spread.
Sunday's Best - NYPOST.com
Pats as a best bet: Chrish Shaw, Hondo
Pats: Mark Cannizzaro, Paul Schwartz, Ms. Charleen, Rico
Colts: Steve Serby, Tim Bontemps, Mike Battaglino, Dave Blezow

On-the-mark Hondo keeps kickin' the Cann - NYPOST.com

Patriots over Colts: After carefully examining the teams’ medical records, Mr. Aitch feels it’s safe to say the banged-up, broken-down Colts will be humanely destroyed by the reasonably healthy Patsies.

BEST BETS: Cowboys, Buccaneers, Patriots

Eagles not landing vs. Giants - NYPOST.com

Colts (+3 1/2) over PATRIOTS : Quite aware that Tom Brady has won 24 starts in a row in Foxborough and that just about every good Colt is on the injury list. But in good conscience can’t recommend giving more than a field goal to Peyton Manning against anyone, anywhere.

Mike Tanier goes with the Pats
Week 11 N.F.L. Matchups - NYTimes.com

To find a rivalry as durable as Peyton Manning versus Tom Brady, you have to go back to Bart Starr and Johnny Unitas, who met 12 times in the 1960s. The Unitas Colts and Starr Packers battled to a 6-6 tie, but even though the N.F.L. title often hung in the balance when they played, they never met in the postseason. Manning and Brady have squared off 11 times, eight times in the regular season and three times in the playoffs. Brady’s Patriots lead the series, 7-4, but Manning’s Colts have won four of the past five.

This is the rare rivalry that gets better with time. It has evolved over the years. At first, it was easy to trivialize as a showdown of winner versus stat compiler. From 2007 to 2009, it morphed into a clash of offensive ideologies: Manning’s buttoned-down precision against Brady’s wide-open fireworks. Now that Manning’s best receivers are retired or injured and the Patriots’ offense has rediscovered balance, the rivalry finds two future Hall of Famers shepherding younger teammates through another victory march as their eras start to wane. The games always live up to their billing. Last year’s 35-34 Colts win (made famous by Bill Belichick’s short-pass gamble on fourth-and-2) was the latest in a series of games with spectacular finishes and improbable results.

We wax poetic about Unitas and Starr. Let us not wait 35 years to appreciate Brady and Manning. Enjoy this rivalry while it is still here. Pick: Patriots.

 

[Ron Sellers]

Five out of six Buffalo News writers think the Pats will cover the spread.
News Staff Selections / Week 11 - Sports - The Buffalo News

Indianapolis (+3) at New England
Gaughan: New England
Wilson: New England
Sullivan: Indianapolis
DiCesare: New England
Northrop: New England
McKissic: New England

Greg Cote's Week 11 NFL selections - Greg Cote - MiamiHerald.com

NFL Game Of The Week
COLTS (6-3) AT PATRIOTS (7-2)
When: 4:15 p.m. Sunday (CBS)
Line: NE by 3 ½ Cote's pick: NE 38-31
Fisticuffs erupted in the Game of the Week committee meeting when possibly inebriated proponents of Giants-Eagles began swearing like Rex Ryan and throwing furniture. But ultimately cooler heads -- and Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady -- prevailed. Doesn't it always have the heft and feel of an AFC Championship Game when these two go arm to arm? I try to never underestimate Manning, who has won his past two games in Foxborough and who holds the NFL record with 32 300-yard games on the road, including four of five this season. But the English are healthier, 4-0 at home and, for my money, the Brady Bunch might be best team in NFL at the moment in a very muddled year.

 

[Ron Sellers]

Globe staff's pro picks: Week 11 - Boston.com

Christopher L Gasper, Shalise Manza Young, Jim McBride and Monique Walker all believe the Pats will win and cover the 3 ½ point spread. Eric Wilbur has the Pats winning by 7: Eric Wilbur's Boston Sports Blog

Patriots 34, Colts 27. If the playoffs started today, the Patriots - tied with the Jets and Falcons for the best record in the NFL - would remarkably be the fifth seed in the AFC, and headed on the road for a wild card game. After Sunday, that scenario could remain the same, but the Colts, with a loss, would move into a three-way tie for first in the South with the Titans (vs. Washington) and Jaguars (vs. Cleveland). In fact, no division-leader in the NFL has more than a one-game lead, and divisions have ties at the top. There is no clear-cut favorite, but after these back-to-back weeks, the Patriots will stake that claim.

Patriots-Colts pregame analysis: Edge to Patriots | New England Patriots | Robert Lee | The Providence Journal

As for Brady, he’s coming off his best performance of the season (30-for-43, 350-yards, 4 touchdowns) against one of the best defenses in the league in Pittsburgh. He’ll be looking to follow up that performance against a banged-up Colts secondary that will be missing two-time Pro Bowl safety Bob Sanders. Even without Sanders, starting safety Melvin Bullitt and backup safety and former East Providence High standout Jamie Silva for most of the year, the Patriots have been pretty solid against the pass, allowing only 211.0 passing yards per game. Look for the Patriots to establish the run that will set up their play-action pass and soften up the Colts defense.

Prediction: Patriots 31-24

What to watch for: Patriots vs. Colts | masslive.com | Springfield Republican | Nick Underhill

Respect Tamme: Tight end Jacob Tamme is nowhere near the tight end that Dallas Clark is, but when not paid proper attention, he can make teams pay. Against Philadelphia, he went loose for 108 catches on 11 catches.

Control Freeney and Mathis: Patriots coach Bill Belichick said that he couldn’t even tell a difference between the Colts defensive ends Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney earlier this week when watching film. It wasn’t an insult. They’re both constantly in the backfield pressuring quarterbacks to get rid of the ball far sooner than they’d like. They’re both among the best in the league. Mathis has 7.5 sacks this season and Freeney has six.

Step your game up: Sebastian Vollmer is going to have to step his game up against Mathis on the right side. Dolphins linebacker Cameron Wake showed what a liability Vollmer can be against an elite pass rusher earlier this season. That won’t fly Sunday.

Patriots 34, Colts 27

On the Fox pre-game show Frank Calienda picked the Colts as his upset pick, while Michael Strahan went with the Pats. Missed the NFLN and CBS pre-game show picks; Scott Zolak, Pete Brock and Andy Hart have gone with the Pats in the pre-game radio show.


Official Patriots Football Weekly Blog - From the Hart: Colts, Manning Friday Six-Pack - Andy Hart

Prediction:
I like this spot for the Patriots. The Colts are banged up and coming into New England’s house. Manning is still a scary opponent, especially based on what he’s done to the Patriots of late. The bottom line is that I don’t think the Patriots are going to have any trouble moving the football and putting up points, even on what could be a pretty chilly evening in Foxborough. Expect New England to run it and throw it on the way to another potential 30-point day. Regardless of the injuries, and given New England’s still suspect young secondary, I also think Manning and the Colts will move the football. But I don’t think it will come as easy and don’t think they’ll end as many drives with touchdowns. In terms of star power the Colts still bring it to the field with Manning, Wayne, Freeney, Mathis and maybe Addai. But top to bottom, I think the Patriots will field the more talented team on Sunday. So I’m going to go with the Patriots in a 30-20 victory. But be sure to watch the entire game, even if one team takes a big lead, because we know that these games often go down to the wire and often end differently than they look at the half.

 

[Ron Sellers]

Baltimore Sun staff NFL picks: Week 11 - baltimoresun.com

Ken Murray, Kevin Cowherd, Mike Preston, Mark Viviano, Jamison Hensley, Peter Schmuck and Edward Lee all go with the Patriots.



Gerry Dulac's NFL Forecast: Week 11 | Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

The Patriots are one of two unbeaten teams at home (4-0) and have won 24 consecutive regular-season home games with QB Tom Brady. But the Colts have their past two meetings in Foxboro.

Prediction: Patriots, 31-28

This week's NFL picks | cincinnati.com | Cincinnati.Com

Peyton Manning has won his last two at Gillette Stadium, but the Colts are banged up. The Pats look like they geared up for another deep playoff run. Patriots 23-17

Faith’s Week 11 Picks | Sunday Night Football All Access
Even Faith Hill has faith in the Pats



Houston sports news and scores | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle
N D Kalu and John McClain both go with the Pats



The Star’s week 11 NFL picks - KansasCity.com
4-0 for the Pats
31-27: Sam Mellinger
30-27: Randy Covitz
24-21: Kent Babb
34-24: Adam Teicher



Week 11 NFL Picks - SignOnSanDiego.com

Patriots minus 3.5 vs. Colts: Brady’s no-names better than Manning’s no-names, especially on defense.

Candid Cam: Local boys make good again; Raiders, 49ers will win in Week 11 - ContraCostaTimes.com

Patriots 36, Colts 34: In the latest installment of the NFL's best rivalry this decade, take a minute to appreciate the Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning spectacle. Take 60 minutes, actually.