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Cold Hard Football Facts: Patriots best drafters of decade


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Drafting is harder than the Belichick critics either understand or are willing to admit.

A 50% Chance You'll Squander Millions - WSJ.com

Predicting the future is a very uncertain business.

Drafting is all about probabilities and about risk/reward ratios. Even if the analysis is as good as it humanly can be, there will still be runs of bad luck, and of good luck. It is simply the nature of things when you are making decisions based on probabilities. If someone is calculating the probabilities and the risk/reward ratios correctly, it will work out over time as it has for Belichick.

Look at the long-term records of the people that the Belichick critics think are better at drafting then Belichick. You will see the same thing.

Exactly, which is why I think it is quite commendable that BB has adopted a strategy of maximizing top 100 picks. To contrary of the howling about his arrogance, it demonstrates BB's humble recognition that he can't win them all.

This is the quantum leap that BB draft bashers don't seem to understand.

All that said, I certainly have no problem with someone saying, "I don't think XX is going to be a good player, I'd rather have had YYYY" (though talk of "reaches" and "steals" ruffles my feathers a little). That's fine. History has proven that BB will wiff about 50% of the time. But, just like in baseball, you don't need a whole lot of success to be considered a very good hitter. You just need more than the rest.
 
Drafting is harder than the Belichick critics either understand or are willing to admit.

A 50% Chance You'll Squander Millions - WSJ.com

Predicting the future is a very uncertain business.

Drafting is all about probabilities and about risk/reward ratios. Even if the analysis is as good as it humanly can be, there will still be runs of bad luck, and of good luck. It is simply the nature of things when you are making decisions based on probabilities. If someone is calculating the probabilities and the risk/reward ratios correctly, it will work out over time as it has for Belichick.

Look at the long-term records of the people that the Belichick critics think are better at drafting then Belichick. You will see the same thing.

That's an interesting link. And unlike the rest of the draft, there is usually some type of consensus formed on the guys in the top 5, with very few reaches for players. For the most part, they're guys everyone agrees belong in the top 5, so for the bust rate to be so high is pretty scary.
 
Exactly, which is why I think it is quite commendable that BB has adopted a strategy of maximizing top 100 picks. To contrary of the howling about his arrogance, it demonstrates BB's humble recognition that he can't win them all.

Yes. Exactly. BB understands just how much of a "crapshoot" (his term) the draft is.
 
That's an interesting link. And unlike the rest of the draft, there is usually some type of consensus formed on the guys in the top 5, with very few reaches for players. For the most part, they're guys everyone agrees belong in the top 5, so for the bust rate to be so high is pretty scary.

Yes. Exactly. Again. And if the consensus can't get the first five right... I have probably posted this link a dozen times. This is the first time anyone has ever responded to it. Thank you.
 
Yes. Exactly. Again. And if the consensus can't get the first five right... I have probably posted this link a dozen times. This is the first time anyone has ever responded to it. Thank you.

I never responded to it, but certainly took note of it. ;)
 
I saw this post about five minutes after it was made, but haven't had time to put together a decent response until now. Hopefully the thread hasn't moved too far off this subject since there :cool:

His last five years which includes 2010 which was very good include two years he should have stayed home.
It's so easy to look at 90% of drafts and say that they missed on picks. You really like the Steelers' drafts, it seems. Well, the Pats did better in 2008 than the Steelers did. The Steelers got Rashard Mendenhall, a backup QB, and a backup safety. You can't say a draft sucks without comparing it to other draft classes. If you do that, you'll see how many teams are worse when it comes to drafting. That's exactly what the CHFF article is about, and it is pretty eye-opening. Remember, for every Laurence Maroney, there's a Justin Harrell. For every Terrence Wheatley, there's a Limas Sweed.

If there is a player that every scout and player personnel evaluator, and yes Cousins other Teams have won Super bowls in the last five years, will say is a consensus blue chip player, BB will pass on him just to gain a pick for the next year. Some tiny wart might pop out that irks Bill.
How about some examples? Who are those blue chip guys who Bill passes on? The one that comes to mind to me is Clay Matthews, but I've explained many times why Ninkovich would start over him in the Pats' scheme. I'd love to hear more.

Yet he will go to the well and jump up for a Slater who cost him to move up.
From the picks where Slater was picked to where Bo Ruud was picked, Slater is a top-5 fit for the Patriots. If you want to complain, then complain about Ruud. Slater was a very solid pick.

. The Steelers and Packers have had success drafting. They don't stock pile picks.
We must have a different definition of stockpiling. It's not like Bill is collecting future first round picks until he has 20 firsts in 2017 (if he had started in 2009, he would've been able to do it). Over the last 3 drafts, Bill has used 2 first round picks, 9 second rounders, and 4 (non-comp) third rounders. That's not stockpiling; that's getting amazing amounts of interest on short-term loans. Hard to complain about stockpiling when they're making multiple extra 2nd round picks year after year.

Players like Bowers and Prince slipped. IMO BB was not ready for those instances. The blinders were on.
Alight, this is you spewing random crap now. Not only did the Pats interact with both of these players, but they had them in for official visits. BOTH of them. So not only did that show some level of interest, but they had an extra chance to gather information about both of these guys. You don't think they had all the information they needed to either accurately place these guys on their board or remove them completely.

And I don't see how you think Bill didn't see it coming, considering that neither fall was overly surprising. Plenty of teams didn't have Bowers on their boards, and there are rumors that his career is already over. Rick Gosselin had Prince falling further than he really did in his final mock. Bill's not an idiot. He just liked certain players more than you did and certain players (a lot) less than you did. It had nothing to do with his preparation.

It was my belief that he was shocked Jordan was still available in the 20s but his goal was 2012.
Jordan.
Does.
Not.
Fit.
The.
Patriots'.
Scheme.
Too small.
Too much of a shooter.
Overrated as a player overall.

Refute that as much as you want, but I'm the guy who said in January that the Pats would pass on Jordan and that he'd go to a 4-3 team.

In the War room, his biggest disappointment was not getting SF to bite for a 2012 second rounder.
Very true, but not for the reasons you're thinking. The value just wasn't there. The 49ers gave up a 4th and 5th to move up from 45 to 36. In hindsight, it's obvious that they weren't going to give 45 and their 2012 2nd for three picks higher.

He screwed up his needs by playing the Solder pick and then panicking to get his 2012 pick from NO rather than sit down at #33 and trade that. He already had a deal in place for that with Al if he wanted it.
So he screwed up but drafting a player at a position where the previous starter is going to be 33 in a month, got destroyed in the most recent playoff loss, and has said that he's going to test free agency?

We watched Bill make that pick with the Saints, and it seemed like the exact opposite of panicking. They had the deal planned out in advance, hence the only question being whether the Saints' player was still available. And as the SF trade from 45 to 36 showed, the value at 28 was a hell of a lot better than the value at 33. And it sure does look like Bill had a deal ready with Al, considering the Raiders had no problem sitting at 48 and making a pick :rollseyes:

He could have got Solder, sent a pick to the Chiefs for a pick who were selling the #21 and got Jordan or Wilkerson or Heyward of for that mater drop to get Sheard or Reed whom I believe he really wanted but could not get there.
I've already explained Jordan. Wilkerson has great upside, but he wouldn't be starting over Brace or Deaderick this coming season. He's Raw with a capital R. Heyward has effort problems, so good luck keeping his effort up when he's in charge of the difficult and un-fun task of two-gapping.

Sheard playing OLB is a bigger joke than Jordan playing 3-4 DE. He lacks any semblance of OLB-quality athleticism. The single most annoying thing leading up to the draft is Mike Reiss' obsession with Sheard. And surprise, Sheard went to a 4-3 team where he won't be responsible for dropping into coverage. Hmm, I think I called that one too!

Reed went to (again, surprise) an attacking 3-4 scheme. You know, a scheme where his quick first 10 yards can be used to go around blockers, not to take on blockers like he would've been asked on NE. Reed is a very poor man's Clay Matthews, which isn't good when Matthews himself would be a glorified pass-rush specialist for the Pats.

He miscalculated where he could have gotten Dowling,
Yeah, not like the Bills took a very comparable player with the very next pick or anything...

and Ridley would have lasted at least another round.
Says who? I remember people saying that about Vollmer, and then we found out the Raiders were getting ready to take him with their next pick. Going back further, Mankins was considered a huge reach until a report came out that the 49ers were going to take him with the next pick. The draft is full of "reaches." Who would've been stopping another team from "reaching" for him over the next 10 picks or so? And is it still a reach if he outplays his draft position?

His biggest BS line is his "value". Love the man as a coach but I see the BS meter going through the roof. The last three picks were not even close to "value". He did NOT make those picks. The ST coaches did. Carter was well noticed as a top ST player. He fits a need and if that works, BB is a genius once again. Cousins his ST work was a consideration.
Bill sees value way different than a lot of people. Slater is a great example. There were plenty of flashier players available, but Slater was a guy who Bill apparently thought had a great chance of sticking on the roster. Which is better, a ST guy who makes the roster or a backup at some other position who doesn't?

A developmental LT,
...who has the highest potential of any tackle drafted over the last few years

a slightly taller Woodhead,
Since when is two and a half inches slightly? And you're selling Vereen awfully low with this. He was the best fit at RB for the Pats and was probably the best RB pass-blocker in the draft. I've seen comparisons to Marshall Faulk, and they're not as farfetched as you might think.

an overdrafted RB who had one signature game that BB saw as the deal maker,
And, you know, put up great stats against SEC defense with lackluster support.

My point is if he did take some blue chippers it would be easier for him to get them ready now than to take longshots and coach them up which gives him the most fun. With TB time is not on the Patriots side.
So basically, you want first rounders instead of extra 2nd rounders. That completely goes against what Belichick believes in, and it's hard to blame him. He's whiffed on a few 2nds (Butler, Brace according to a lot of people not including me), but guys like Chung, Cunningham, and Gronkowski were fantastic value picks in the 2nd. And as mentioned above, I'd like to see a list of some blue-chippers that Bill has passed on.
 
My point is if he did take some blue chippers it would be easier for him to get them ready now than to take longshots and coach them up which gives him the most fun. DW Toys

There appears to be a fundamental difference of opinion about the nature of the real world here. DW Toys believes that blue chippers exist. I, and I think others, believe that blue chippers don't exist. See my favorite WSJ article.

If BB believed that blue chippers exist, he would likely follow a different strategy from the one that he does.

I suspect that belief in the existence of blue chippers is a matter of religion. Of course, in this case, unlike religion, there is evidence.
 
No, I stand by what I have said. Best coach ever and purely mediocre when it comes to Drafting. His best talent evaluations are his trades and FA picks ups. Not all work but whenever he has a hit, it changes the Team to the better. For every Burgess there is a Welker. For every Gabriel there is a Moss. Your squelch is respected but not my opinion. If you think he had a master plan to come out with the players in this Draft, you would be wrong then wouldn't you?

His last five years which includes 2010 which was very good include two years he should have stayed home. He is mid pack. I don't know why we try to twist that. He Drafts out of fear of making a mistake and I stand by that. If there is a player that every scout and player personnel evaluator, and yes Cousins other Teams have won Super bowls in the last five years, will say is a consensus blue chip player, BB will pass on him just to gain a pick for the next year. Some tiny wart might pop out that irks Bill. Yet he will go to the well and jump up for a Slater who cost him to move up. The results are a mixed bag. You would have us to believe he is infallible.You are respected for your opinion. You have not squelched certain truths.

IMO, his chess moves are not predetermined as to what is left on the board that he prefers. He doesn't have a crystal ball to see what each other Team might do. He will blink and move to next year. The Steelers and Packers have had success drafting. They don't stock pile picks. BB created his own monster and he won't let it die. The bad news is that this was a bad Draft year. I said that this fall from what I read. This year is worse (2012). Yet we blow picks at the top of this year.What will I see now? The old "In BB we trust " stuff.

It's not as complicated as we make it. It is not a mystery. His goal when he came into the Draft was to pick up some Picks for 2012. Robert Kraft stated that. He had a predetermined list of players that would work around that main goal like Solder and Dowling. Players like Bowers and Prince slipped. IMO BB was not ready for those instances. The blinders were on. It was my belief that he was shocked Jordan was still available in the 20s but his goal was 2012.In the War room, his biggest disappointment was not getting SF to bite for a 2012 second rounder.

He sits down and says Solder, Dowling a first rounder in 2012 and Ridley were his "binkies". What happened in between was not predetermined. It was where the cards fell. He screwed up his needs by playing the Solder pick and then panicking to get his 2012 pick from NO rather than sit down at #33 and trade that. He already had a deal in place for that with Al if he wanted it. He could have got Solder, sent a pick to the Chiefs for a pick who were selling the #21 and got Jordan or Wilkerson or Heyward of for that mater drop to get Sheard or Reed whom I believe he really wanted but could not get there. The Saints deal dictated the rest of our Draft.

There was no master plan after those three important items.It was just what was there that he could grab. He miscalculated where he could have gotten Dowling, and Ridley would have lasted at least another round. Now if they all work out to perfection he is a genius. But it was not the perfect scenario. His biggest BS line is his "value". Love the man as a coach but I see the BS meter going through the roof. The last three picks were not even close to "value". He did NOT make those picks. The ST coaches did. Carter was well noticed as a top ST player. He fits a need and if that works, BB is a genius once again. Cousins his ST work was a consideration.

This was a Draft I rate as a "C". A developmental LT, an oft injured and the key word here is "Safety" (whom I liked for the Pats in this Draft and if he is healthy can make this Draft a "B-"), a slightly taller Woodhead, an overdrafted RB who had one signature game that BB saw as the deal maker, two "steals " in Mallet and Cannon (loved those picks) and three JAGS.

If you all say that this Draft and the last five put BB on a pedestal, you are entitled to your opinion but it did not squelch mine. I am more excited to see if he can do something more than this yawner of a Draft and bring in some established talent in FA or trades to help TB now, not three years from now with a 17% chance of those players Drafted in 2011 working out.

My point is if he did take some blue chippers it would be easier for him to get them ready now than to take longshots and coach them up which gives him the most fun. With TB time is not on the Patriots side.

When BB goes to the track, would he ever bet on a favorite? I doubt it. I respect your opinion. Please respect those who think he is not the best Drafter.
DW Toys

"I respect your opinion. Please respect those who think he is not the best Drafter."

I do respect your opinion. But in this case you are just plan wrong.

The extensive research of CHFF proves it. If they had added one more year, to include the Brady draft the gap between BB's first place, and the calculated first, would have been even wider.

Much of the criticism of Belichick's drafting traces back to a draft where he traded it away to bring in patches, Moss & Welker, for a fading Super bowl club, in order to get a year or two more possibilities. People credit the players, but criticize that the gutted remaining draft, and the picks didn't amount to much.

You can't have it both ways...:)
 
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Much of the criticism of Belichick's drafting traces back to a draft where he traded it away to bring in patches, Moss & Welker, for a fading Super bowl club, in order to get a year or two more possibilities.

Yes, 2007. If I remember correctly, 2008 (another year that some people blame BB for a bad draft) was just a very weak draft class. How many teams had good drafts that year? How many teams had a better draft than ours which produced Mayo?
 
I
No one says Bill is infallible. But the simple truth is that NE has acquired a probowl player in every draft BB has held, and they compare to the elite teams in draftee starts, pro bowls, allpros, guys still in the league over the past 10 years. Whine and complain all you want, you'll only come off looking like a fool.

Hey slow down--the 2002 draft didn't produce a pro bowler. His other 10 have.

However, in 2002 they did draft Graham/Branch/Givens/Green (and Davey and Womack) with their six picks so I'd call it a success.

As an aside trading down to get more picks who are more likely to bust makes you look like a worse drafter than using a high pick on a first rounder. BB essentially traded Oher (and a 2010 sixth) for Butler/Tate/Edelman/Gronk. When you end up with one home run pick you look smarter than the guy who has a home run, two singles and K (Butler)-you're batting 1.000, he's batting 750--but BB added more talent overall.
 
I copied some of this from the post on Fletcher looking bigger, because I wanted to compare the athleticism of a First round Draft pick with a couple of Belichick's multi-year DE->OLB "projects". One an UDFA, who shows signs, and the other a #6.

Markel Carters pro day profile: College DE who put up impressive TFL and a half-dozen/year sacks.
6' 4 3/8 252 4.70/2.72/1.71 17 35.5" 10'4" 4.45 7.43

Fletcher's pre-draft profile: College DL who put up impressive career numbers in both sacks and TFL.
6'1 5/8" 250 4.61/2.62/1.60 29 36" 09'03" 4.35 6.93

An excellent physical comparison is Jerry Hughes:
6' 1 3/4" 255 4.65/2.63/1.63 26 34.5" 09'10" 4.15 6.99

Draft critics talk about Jabaal Sheard as someone we should have taken:
6' 2 7/8" 263 4.69/2.63/1.59 __ 32.5" 09'7" 4.65 7.34

I am not overly impressed with Sheard's explosiveness or athleticism.

Markell is just bigger than the other two, with a poor number of reps, and a mediocre 3 cone. Weight room work should increase his strength. But otherwise he compares to the athletic ability of a First rounder/2nd rounder. I know that Belichick views 3 cone as a critical number, but Carter performed with a mild hammy, so some of the numbers are subject to revision perhaps.
 
However, in 2002 they did draft Graham/Branch/Givens/Green (and Davey and Womack) with their six picks so I'd call it a success.

And they did not have a third round pick which makes it even more impressive. They had two fours and two sevens but no five or six.
 
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Hey slow down--the 2002 draft didn't produce a pro bowler. His other 10 have.

However, in 2002 they did draft Graham/Branch/Givens/Green (and Davey and Womack) with their six picks so I'd call it a success.

As an aside trading down to get more picks who are more likely to bust makes you look like a worse drafter than using a high pick on a first rounder. BB essentially traded Oher (and a 2010 sixth) for Butler/Tate/Edelman/Gronk. When you end up with one home run pick you look smarter than the guy who has a home run, two singles and K (Butler)-you're batting 1.000, he's batting 750--but BB added more talent overall.

I thought Branch made it as an alternate in 2005. Apparently I was wrong. There's a first time for everything. :cool: ;)

Your 2nd point is well stated.
 
And they did not have a third round pick which makes it even more impressive. They had two fours and two sevens but no five or six.

They started the day with a third and a fifth but used them (with their own first) to get Graham.
 
I thought Branch made it as an alternate in 2005. Apparently I was wrong. There's a first time for everything. :cool: ;)

Maybe in your memory you confused being a Super Bowl MVP with having made a Pro Bowl. Easy mistake to make.
 
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here is a list of only impact/star players Drafted by the pats over the last 11 years

2000
Tom Brady, maybe the greatest QB of all time

2001
Richard Seymour, best 3-4 DE in the NFL
Matt Light, pro bowl LT

2002
Deion Branch, was a SB mvp and still is one of Brayds go to guys

2003
Asante Samuel, still a top 5 CB in the NFL

2004
Vince Wilfork, best NT in the NFL and a pro bowler

2005
Logan Mankins, best G in the NFL
Matt Cassel, top 10 QB in the NFL

2006
Stephen Gostkowski, pro bowl kicker and one of the best in the NFL

2007
Brandon Meriweather, pro bowler

2008
Jerod Mayo, one of the best ILB's in the NFL

2009
Sebastian Vollmer, best RT in the NFL

2010
Devin McCourty, pro bowl CB
Rob Gronkowski, top 5 TE



and i did not add a lot of really good players thats helped the pats win SB's
 
here is a list of only impact/star players Drafted by the pats over the last 11 years

2000
Tom Brady, maybe the greatest QB of all time

2001
Richard Seymour, best 3-4 DE in the NFL
Matt Light, pro bowl LT

2002
Deion Branch, was a SB mvp and still is one of Brayds go to guys

2003
Asante Samuel, still a top 5 CB in the NFL

2004
Vince Wilfork, best NT in the NFL and a pro bowler

2005
Logan Mankins, best G in the NFL
Matt Cassel, top 10 QB in the NFL

2006
Stephen Gostkowski, pro bowl kicker and one of the best in the NFL

2007
Brandon Meriweather, pro bowler

2008
Jerod Mayo, one of the best ILB's in the NFL

2009
Sebastian Vollmer, best RT in the NFL

2010
Devin McCourty, pro bowl CB
Rob Gronkowski, top 5 TE



and i did not add a lot of really good players thats helped the pats win SB's


In keeping with your theme - I will only add impact/stars to your list ( I won't add 7 year starters - Kpppen and Warren or NFL record holders - Givens or potential stars from the last 3 drafts - Chung, Spikes etc)

2000 Bill Belichick 1st rounder (Thank you Mr Kraft)

2004 Corey Dillon 2nd rounder

2007 Wes Welker 2nd rounder
Randy Moss 3rd rounder

2008 FORFEIT 1st rounder (Screw you Mr Commissioner)

All this while drafting at the BOTTOM of every round.
 
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