I'm not sure I'll ever be able to get over this fact;
Round 3 Pick 19 (83) Brandon Tate - WR North Carolina
Round 3 Pick 20 (84) Mike Wallace - Mississippi
What a stuff up. Easily a number 1 WR vs a 4/5 WR. Sigh.
This is a reason why I have always said that 90% of what a player becomes happens after they are drafted.
I would bet that if you polled all 32 teams they would have had these guys rated somewhere close to each other, and no one would have expeced Wallace to develop this much this quickly. (If they did he would have gone a lot earlier)
But if you look at a college Jr or Sr when they are drafted, they are far from a finished product.
First, they may have played against competition that can make the NFL in a few games, but especially with 1st rounders, they were physically superior to most of the players they faced. There are tons of factors in how they respond to tougher more consistent competition.
Second, the mental part of the game is heavily advanced in the NFL.
Third, is coaching. Proper technique is a huge coaching point in the NFL, and most rookies need a lot of technique work.
On top of this you have other issues such as:
-Working out. They must get physically stronger and in better shape to play at a high level in the NFL 99% of the time
-Commitment. These guys get big $$. Do they work hard or coast.
-Off the field. We all remember when we were 21-25 years old. There are plently of things to do after dark that would be detrimental to being an NFL player and growing better. We all knew people who made those mistakes and screwed up their 'simple' lives. Hand over a few mill, and it gets easier to mess up.
-Nutrition. These guys are actually feeding themselves for the first time in thier lives. Again, divergence occurs.
-Responsilbility. Again, they are now on their own for the first time (not all but most) and must make good choices or they will bust.
THere are many other factors. Basically, you are asking a young person to become an adult, while needing to build their body, stay in shape, perfect skills, and compete against the best in the world.
Is there any surprise that the draft is a crapshoot?