Brady's Passing Weakness

[Mark12]

Long balls is definitively not Brady's strength, but some of you act like he is a bum at it. He did miss a wide open Lloyd Thursday's game where he clearly looked disappointed. But Lloyd also has a few drops on long balls. Off the top of my head against the Titans like in the 3rd or 4th play of the game and against the Jets.

 

[Metaphors]

I don't understand this thread. There have been weeks where it might make sense, but this isn't one of them.

Brady threw a touch pass (he didn't stride into the throw) 42 yards in the air to Edelperson.

Brady threw a bullet to Welker that traveled 32 yards in the air and hit him in the gut in stride.

Does anyone really doubt Brady can throw a pass 65 yards in the air with pace? The arm strength comments (either age or injury) don't seem to be based on observation. Can someone point to a throw this year that illustrates a decline in downfield throwing power?

As for downfield accuracy, I have to agree with the posters who point to a focus on efficiency over big plays. Brady has a 0.7% interception rate (Goober's is almost 2%). The Pats are #1 (sometimes by a lot over #2) in all drives stats except fumbles/drive. If the Pats don't give away the ball, they are just really hard to beat.

Brady has to attack downfield to keep the safeties honest...but he just isn't going to risk a turnover. I see that as more of a philosophy than a weakness. Seeing some of his passes down the seam to Gronk leaves me with little doubt that Brady can do pretty much what he wants with his arm.

 

[hodgey]

Sorry but I'll take the 24/3 ratio over a gunslinger who throws deep sideline jump balls. Eli gets away with it because he's benifitted from a great defense.

 

[Kid~Brady]

Put Calvin Johnson on this team and watch how well he can go downfield and inside the numbers.

 

[Shockt327]

Here's an old post of mine from this summer(when we were having the same convo):

I bet fans mostly see deep throws on highlight reels more than anything else; which would obviously make it look easier and more common than it really is. Why? Cause stats don't lie, and Brady is well above average when it comes to deep throws. In fact, Brady was flat out awesome in 2003 and 2004...not to mention '07.

From Espn, I looked up "Passes Thrown" -- which is essentially an air yards stat that ignored YAC -- and I then combined the 31-40 yard throws and 41+ yards throws:

Player
Yr:Comp.Att.Yr.TD.INT

Brady
'02: 03 22 117 0 1
'03: 12 31 566 5 3
'04: 12 38 507 3 3
'05: 06 27 164 3 1
'06: 07 25 314 3 3
'07: 13 30 622 8 2
'09: 06 30 284 4 4
'10: 05 19 225 3 2
'11: 01 15 046 0 0

PManning
'02: 08 30 322 3 4
'03: 11 31 449 6 0
'04: 11 22 400 8 1
'05: 09 26 355 7 2
'06: 13 31 560 3 0
'07: 10 27 452 6 2
'08: 07 28 363 3 4
'09: 07 27 327 3 2
'10: 08 25 347 3 1

Roethlisberger:
'04: 09 25 361 3 3
'05: 07 13 315 1 1
'06: 03 19 336 2 6
'07: 09 18 378 6 2
'08: 07 24 306 3 2
'09: 10 24 455 5 2
'10: 09 19 377 4 1
'11: 07 27 385 4 2

Vick
'02: 06 30 298 3 1
'03: 03 08 131 1 1
'04: 04 22 180 2 1
'05: 06 27 274 1 3
'06: 06 38 298 0 1
'10: 08 20 427 3 1
'11: 07 21 335 2 4

Rivers:
'06: 07 30 289 3 0
'07: 04 21 164 1 2
'08: 10 24 465 4 1
'09: 11 35 520 1 2
'10: 08 21 407 5 3
'11: 09 31 370 6 4

Rodgers:
'09: 09 31 437 2 2
'10: 08 24 381 4 4
'11: 11 20 526 6 0

Flacco:
'08: 08 31 409 4 3
'09: 07 28 300 4 4
'10: 08 23 385 3 0
'11: 07 33 289 3 1

Eli
'05: 05 30 221 0 3
'06: 10 25 414 5 4
'07: 06 29 252 3 2
'08: 05 20 186 3 1
'09: 08 22 335 2 1
'10: 07 29 328 6 2
'11: 11 35 624 3 1

 

[coolguy]

Brady has been overestimate/underestimating his receivers speed since moss/stallworth peaked out. He doesn't have anyone on the he trust long, so he doesn't bother throwing it deep a lot.

 

[ALP]

as ppl have stated, its less to do w/ Brady, and more to do with who he is throwing to


having welker run streaks down the field is quite innefective, b/c usually a CB covers him, and the CB is at least half a foot taller

when Moss was here, and he was fast and big, Brady would hit him right on the money a large % of the time, now he cannot

the reason is speed and size of the receiver, and a little bit that brady barely gets to throw that throw, so yes he is less practiced in it

its not a real big detriment though, if he had the proper weapons which would make that throw effective, he'd hit it like he hits every other throw he makes

 

[CityOfChampions]

Can people ever leave Brady alone? All season he's been throwing to hobbled Gronk, Welker, Hernandez with a dose of Brandon "I can't get separation" Lloyd. He's fine.

 

[dex13]

I always thought that Brady was an average long range passer. He can hit the receiver but its definitely not his most consistent throw. He's got the arm but his accuracy isn't as consistent. Peyton or Aaron Rodgers, for example, are better at this range.

But, if you look at the great QBs, the thing that usually sets them apart is that they excel in the short to medium range passes. Brady's accuracy and consistency here might only be matched by only a few other QBs and all of them would be considered elite.

 

[Water Boy]

I've never considered Brady a great deep ball passer. I think he's been a little more accurate of late but that is my perception. I guess I need to research stats on his completion % on throws > 30 yards compared to other Qbs. When it comes to short to mid passing his accuracy is insane. I guess I need to look at those stats too.

 

[Shockt327]

I've never considered Brady a great deep ball passer. I think he's been a little more accurate of late but that is my perception. I guess I need to research stats on his completion % on throws > 30 yards compared to other Qbs. When it comes to short to mid passing his accuracy is insane. I guess I need to look at those stats too.

Or you can just read post #40

From Espn, I looked up "Passes Thrown" -- which is essentially an air yards stat that ignored YAC -- and I then combined the 31-40 yard throws and 41+ yards throws:

Player
Yr:Comp.Att.Yr.TD.INT

Brady
'02: 03 22 117 0 1
'03: 12 31 566 5 3
'04: 12 38 507 3 3
'05: 06 27 164 3 1
'06: 07 25 314 3 3
'07: 13 30 622 8 2
'09: 06 30 284 4 4
'10: 05 19 225 3 2
'11: 01 15 046 0 0

PManning
'02: 08 30 322 3 4
'03: 11 31 449 6 0
'04: 11 22 400 8 1
'05: 09 26 355 7 2
'06: 13 31 560 3 0
'07: 10 27 452 6 2
'08: 07 28 363 3 4
'09: 07 27 327 3 2
'10: 08 25 347 3 1

Roethlisberger:
'04: 09 25 361 3 3
'05: 07 13 315 1 1
'06: 03 19 336 2 6
'07: 09 18 378 6 2
'08: 07 24 306 3 2
'09: 10 24 455 5 2
'10: 09 19 377 4 1
'11: 07 27 385 4 2

Vick
'02: 06 30 298 3 1
'03: 03 08 131 1 1
'04: 04 22 180 2 1
'05: 06 27 274 1 3
'06: 06 38 298 0 1
'10: 08 20 427 3 1
'11: 07 21 335 2 4

Rivers:
'06: 07 30 289 3 0
'07: 04 21 164 1 2
'08: 10 24 465 4 1
'09: 11 35 520 1 2
'10: 08 21 407 5 3
'11: 09 31 370 6 4

Rodgers:
'09: 09 31 437 2 2
'10: 08 24 381 4 4
'11: 11 20 526 6 0

Flacco:
'08: 08 31 409 4 3
'09: 07 28 300 4 4
'10: 08 23 385 3 0
'11: 07 33 289 3 1

Eli
'05: 05 30 221 0 3
'06: 10 25 414 5 4
'07: 06 29 252 3 2
'08: 05 20 186 3 1
'09: 08 22 335 2 1
'10: 07 29 328 6 2
'11: 11 35 624 3 1

 

[crowell33]

I would agree that throwing the sideline deep ball isn't his forte. With that said, other than Moss he hasn't had a lot to work with.

But there isn't a HoF player out there that was great at everything. I'd much rather have him be perfect on the short to mid-range throws...which he is.

This. Irrelevant that Brady doesn't like to take hits, can't throw the deep ball and has limited mobility.

The fact is Brady is the best passer from 0 - 15 yards in the history of the NFL. His ability to read defenses is also unparalleled. These qualities make him a first ballot Hall of Famer.

 

[ausbacker]

I would rather see Brady throw balls that are hard to catch on the deep route than balls that are easy to intercept on deep throws.

People will turn on RG3 the moment he starts doing a Cam Newton and turning the football over. What have you done for me lately...

 

[JPPT1974]

Hope that RG3 won't turn into Cam Newton. Kid has a lot of talent not to do that.

As Brady does make mistakes. But barely it seems. He does find ways to win.

 

[Shockt327]

Ok I guess it's difficult to read the raw stats I posted. So, I posted the season averages for their entire careers....

Brady  7.2 of	26.3	316.1 yrd	3.2 TD	2.1 INT
				
Peyton 9.3 of	27.4	397.2 yrd	4.7 TD	1.8 INT
				
BigBen 7.6 of	21.1	364.1 yrd	3.5 TD	2.4 INT
				
M Vick 5.7 of	23.7	277.6 yrd	1.7 TD	1.7 INT
				
Rivers 8.2 of	27.0	369.2 yrd	3.3 TD	2.0 INT
				
A-Rod  9.3 of	25.0	448.0 yrd	4.0 TD	2.0 INT

Flacco 7.5 of	28.8	345.8 yrd	3.5 TD	2.0 INT	
													
Eli  7.4 of      27.1	337.1 yrd	3.1 TD	2.0 INT

 

[nekromantique]

Quote:

Originally Posted by nabwong

RGIII is damn good with the deep ball. I don't believe he has any deep threats. Not sure Garcon counts.

Lol...

RGIII is 1 for 12 with 1 TD on passes thrown greater than 30 yards.

Brady is 3 for 12 with 1 TD on passes thrown greater than 30 yards.

Its the receivers. Given the lack of a receiver with true down field capabilities Brady can't risk throwing it short, which is a problem he didn't have with Moss. He could throw it a little short and Moss could go up and get it.

this can't be an accurate stat. I see rg3 hit a bomb in almost every game. lots of in-air yardage...not just yac


Posted from Patsfans.com App for Android

 

[MoneyFX]

I fear the day where a team in the playoffs plays man coverage and shuts the short routes down and dares the receivers to go deep, just like the Jets game in 2011 playoffs and the 2011 regular season game against Pittsburgh. Lloyd really has disappointed this year, but then again, Brady did deliver him some bad balls. He can't get much separation. Next season, the team needs to get some speed at the WR position or some size or a mixture of both. I'm fine with the inside the numbers passing game, but there will be a day whether it be playoffs where a team will force NE to go deep.

 

[Deus Irae]

I fear the day where a team in the playoffs plays man coverage and shuts the short routes down and dares the receivers to go deep, just like the Jets game in 2011 playoffs and the 2011 regular season game against Pittsburgh. Lloyd really has disappointed this year, but then again, Brady did deliver him some bad balls. He can't get much separation. Next season, the team needs to get some speed at the WR position or some size or a mixture of both. I'm fine with the inside the numbers passing game, but there will be a day whether it be playoffs where a team will force NE to go deep.

Lloyd's been making a living oustide the numbers this season, so I don't really understand your claim here.

 

[jnug]

Guys like Gronk and Hernandez have got to step forward when teams try to shut down the Pats short and intermediate passing game.They are the two guys big enough to simply go over the top of defenders and foil that defensive strategy.

I think Lloyd has done marginally better the last couple of weeks but he has done better at the task that was realistically expected of him. He was supposed to give the Pats more of a threat outside the hash marks, not deep outside the hash marks. Lloyd has done a bit better the last couple weeks and I am hoping that he will continue to improve.

So far Lloyd has not done enough to change the element of the Pats efforts that I mentioned earlier. When defenses try to shut down the Pats passing offense, the guys that break that effort are Gronk and Hernandez as they are big enough and athletic enough to foil single coverage. When the defense has to concentrate more efforts on those two guys it opens up the field again for the Pats smaller WR's.

As much as I like Edelman, when the game gets tight like that, he does struggle a bit because he has trouble getting open. He is terrific at YAC but Welker does a much better job of getting open. While the Pats have plays that still get JE the ball such that he can do his thing, getting the ball somewhere around the line of scrimmage either via reverse or WR screen opens him up to big hits like the kind we see Spikes dish out to opponents.

Also, the Pats improving rushing attack should give opponents more to think about when they are trying to shut down the Pats intermediate and short passing game.

 

[MoneyFX]

Lloyd's been making a living oustide the numbers this season, so I don't really understand your claim here.

Yeah, thats why he only gets 2-3 catches a game and gets little separation.