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Bills vs. Patriots breakdown/analysis

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Patspsycho, Sep 27, 2010.

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  1. Patspsycho

    Patspsycho Rookie

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    I already did the Jets breakdown, but there were a lot of ridiculous threads posted last week so I thought I would save that for the bye week.

    I have been following the trends from last week into this week and see marked improvements. There are ups and downs and aggravating inconsistencies, but we are getting there.

    To start:

    1. The defense was very uptight on the first drive made against them. They have got to relax. Sometimes when the LT reads high hat, it is what it is, and you key on a strongside run and get a good flow to it and try not to play on your heels too much. I think that is the downside to a BB defense- they tend to be cerebral and sometimes think too much, and think a high hat LT or RT is a decoy and the Bills have got a complicated play unfolding. Just based on the high hat reads on the end of the OL, I could call a run play going the other way, and that is what happened with the Bills on three consecutive snaps. They are not a complicated team to play against.

    For example, 1st and 10, 11:59 first Q: cover 5, OLB stand up outside shade tech 5. We see Bills RT read high hat and key off it to anticipate weakside run, and LB should shade accordingly. You can see Spikes try to sell inside blitz and just shoots the weakside B gap and overpursues instead of letting the play come to him and spy Lynch to the outside shoulder of Cunningham where he would make the tackle for a loss. Lynch instead gets the first down plus some on a bounce out.

    2nd and 9, 1st Q 10:44, we feint cover 5 and go to cover 3 at the snap with Chung , Arrington fakes press and blitzes and Chung rolls up weakside to pick up. We see Bills LT in high hat and read off it, and think to get a good strongside flow, but the LB corp doesn't do that and doesn't shade strongside. Again, Spikes does not key off that and does not let the play come to him and just tries to gap shoot instead of spying the RB and pick him up on Ninko's outside shoulder (the way Bruschi would do it). As a result of gap shooting, he gets eaten up by the RG and what should have been a gain of 0 yards, turns into 5, stopped only by Ninko's ability to shed the kick out block by the FB. Brace also held the double-team in check.

    The defense needs to have the confidence to let the play come to them, and to understand that, as illogical as it sounds, allowing the play to come to you can actually result in a loss as opposed to being overzealous and getting caught in overpursuit.

    2. First Patriots drive- huge difference in Brady's performance from last week to this week. His first reads on pass plays were Welker, and on 2nd pass it was Gronk-Edelman, then Hernandez who was on a low drag and to his credit did not quit on the play but improvised a seam route.

    I continue to be very impressed with Hernandez. A lot of people have compared Edelman to Welker, but I see a lot of Welker in Hernandez in that he has that uncanny ability to feel coverage over his top in addition to his juking skills.

    Example: 2nd and 5, 6:43 1st Q. 2 x 2 in Posse (3 WR 1 TE 1 "RB") Moss and Welker in stack look. Brady motions Edelman wide to expose Bills coverage (cover 5 with press on Tate and Moss; you see Byrd rolled up to Moss). Brady's first read is on Hern who does a hitch and feeling the LB pursuing the outside leverage (incorrect) spins underneath and gains 9 YAC.

    The Moss TD was a beautifully designed play. We are in 3 x 1 3 TE package, with Crumpler motioning to weakside, and nobody follows so we see zone, but the FS drops to pick up Crumpler on LOS, so Brady does not audible out because he knows the CB is supposed to stick with Moss, so the play-calling is perfect here (weakside run with Crumpler as the kick out block). CB and SS bite on the feint and that is enough for Moss to gain a full step on them.
  2. Nikolai

    Nikolai Football Atheist PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Good write up and an interesting note on Welker/Hernandez.
  3. Patspsycho

    Patspsycho Rookie

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    I wasn't aware we had signed Curly, Larry, and Moe? Does anyone know if we signed them for the league minimum?

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  4. Patspsycho

    Patspsycho Rookie

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    Well, I guess nobody found that funny.

    My point, in aroundabout way is that there is nothing to lose hair over. All that's needed here is patience.

    Watching the last Bills drive of the 1st Q, we open in the pass protect nickel (Guyton in for Spikes, with Wilhite in the slot. Vary from cover 5 to 7, rotating Mayo out for Spikes in that infamous 3rd and 18.

    Watching our CB's closely, from last week into this week, the one thing that stands out to me is that they are still relying on their athleticism to bail them out, the way it did in college. The problem is that this doesn't work in the NFL because the WR's are just as athletic and talented, and in most instances, taller and stronger.

    The two biggest thing lacking in their game is technique and proper leverage. They are not between the man and the ball, not knowing where the ball is at all time, and not funneling their man, using trail technique, nor are they even in open hips most of the time.

    So the biggest thing that needs to happen here is for us to have patience and to let them evolve. If we just go bat**** and demand a CB trade or sign a veteran CB, or try to get a CB with the first round pick, then we are just defeating ourselves and not letting people grow.

    The same is true of the playcalling. It was atrocious last week, and is only marginally better this week, but there is no way to grow and become better other than to make mistakes or choke under pressure.

    Too many people want short term results, and that is just not going to happen.

    The Jets opted to go all in for this year, we didn't. We opted to build slowly from the ground up, not to build our house on sand, the way the Jets did. I am one of the very few posters here who did not have a problem with them beating us. Why wouldn't they? They have a collection of talented but troubled players, and all of them are vets with their bags of tricks. Are they going to get better next year? No. Are we? Yes. We're building for the next five years, they aren't. They're already going downhill.

    The first two touchdowns they scored on us last week were off double-moves that took advantage of the inexperience in the backfield. Our CB's quit on the initial move because that's what they did in college. They also play the same coverage all day in college. They don't shift between cover 0 and zone, base, nickel, or dime, or pass protect nickel or dime. That is a difficult load to handle, and they need the time to digest it.

    The bottom line is that we will get better. We are going up, not down.
  5. JackBauer

    JackBauer On the Roster

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    It looks like Spikes has a lot to learn in terms of gap responsibility?
  6. Gwedd

    Gwedd PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I agree we are going up. patience is indeed a virtue, and things will only get better as the season unfolds.
  7. Patspsycho

    Patspsycho Rookie

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    He just needs more experience. He needs to develop a feel for when to gap-shoot or shade to plug the hole, or spy to cut off the bounce out.

    But he has tremendous upside. Right now he is functioning off instinct. Who knows what he will do when he has that vets bag of tricks and gets enough time in the video room to become familiar with all the teams he plays against.

    EDIT: the more I watch the more I think that it was the game plan for him to consistently shoot the gap in the middle, perhaps because the Bills like to run their RBs up the middle, and he would be there to plug that up. However, game-planning isn't the end all, and you need to tailor it to what you see evolve on the field, and that will come in time, for Spikes.
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2010
  8. Patspsycho

    Patspsycho Rookie

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    2nd quarter now. They have put Chung in to spy the RB and he waits for the play to come to him and shoots the C gap at the right time to negate the run. Jay (Jays52) is right- they are targeting TBC when they run.

    What I am seeing here is a lot of communication has to be worked out effectively- the CBs have to learn how to control the routes, jam at the line, force the reroute. Right now they seem to be trying to get used to the physicality of the WR's and how hard they hit you at the LOS to get you dislocated and a full step behind them.

    You have to think here, whose fault is this? The truth is it's nobody's fault. Who would have foreseen Bodden going to IR? Someone has to step in there to pick up the slack, so inevitably it's going to be trial by fire. You may ask why not a vet CB? BB already went that route last year and I think he has felt it more important to have a young group all grow together than have the odd veteran who is going to be gone in a year or two, and thus never really buys into the chemistry.
  9. Patspsycho

    Patspsycho Rookie

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    The Mayo Sack was just a great play, a very well-designed play which shows BB's keen mind when it comes to drawing up plays. This one features outside blitzing against an empty set. Here we see a 2-4-5 alignment with only two linemen and no NT. Wright is LDE and Wilfork is the RDE and we have everyone on the line hit the strongside gap (one of the few instances where we one-gap). Mayo is in 7 tech, and Wright is 5 tech. The reason we hit the strongside gap is because we know Wilfork will command the double-team. In the still below you can see that the center is already looking at Wilfork after the snap to contain him, so he will slide over, and so we help to facilitate that to win the numbers battle on the weakside. Wright will shoot the weakside A gap and draw the OG with him in an one-on-one matchup, and Ninko will stone the RT, opening a clear path for Mayo. On the other side, Guyton is head up on the LT and will feint then drop to cover the flat, and unexpectedly throws the LT off, allowing TBC to blitz on the open side.

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  10. Kasmir

    Kasmir Rookie

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    Great breakdowns.

    BTW, how are you doing the frame captures, and are they copyright problems for the site? I'd love to include a few myself, but both technology and legality have been inhibitors.
  11. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Was that all on Hernandez or did Brady communicate to him by "throwing him open?" We've seen Tommy do that often enough with his receivers and I believe that part of the explosion in Welker's performance in NE was having a QB who actually tried to get in-sync with his receiver instead of the synchronization all being one-sided.

    "High Hat" - what should I be seeing to visualize this read?

    Thanks for the work-up, good job! (and I got a chuckle seeing the Three Stooges sequence which didn't register during the game while working to deadline on a church project).
  12. Oswlek

    Oswlek Rookie

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    Nice job. I really like the sack breakdown.
  13. PatsWickedPissah

    PatsWickedPissah PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    That was hilarious although when I saw it live I uttered the Bad Word.

    Us fans get impatient because Brady won't be in his prime forever. And yes, it is hard to rebuild an aged, retired championship D.
  14. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Just a quoting a few lines of text from an article doesn't really rise to the level of copyright infringement, I'd guess a few frames from a 3+ hour broadcast to explicate an observation are safe.
  15. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Not this one! :eek:

    [​IMG]
  16. Kasmir

    Kasmir Rookie

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    I'd love to put together a compendium of Gray Guyton's greatest moments trying to avoid contact :rolleyes: There are usually several per game. My favorite from Sunday was when he got the worst of a head on collision with Fitzpatrick. The guy is an athletic freak but he sure doesn't like to hit or be hit. I never in my life imagined I see an NFL linebacker be in position to make a play but instead actually turtle up to avoid a block.
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2010
  17. emoney_33

    emoney_33 Rookie

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    great stuff as usual. The three stooges play was certainly a bad, albeit funny, moment of the game. I'm sure there were plenty of jokes when they watched the film :p
  18. Robdude

    Robdude Rookie

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    Always my favorite threads. I really enjoy seeing your explanations along with the pics. Really clarifies things. I was I had some insight to add but most breakdowns are very thorough. Great Job.
  19. pencilneckgeek

    pencilneckgeek Rookie

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    You are dead to me. Last week was hell around here. :bricks:

    Great breakdown. Thanks for taking this on this year. I have a similar question to BoR, what's a high hat read?
  20. SuperPatsFan

    SuperPatsFan Rookie

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    Maybe the OP will return to tell us what he thinks cover 5 is. :singing:
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